On the flip side, Micron and Intel have stated they're going to build fabs in a few US spots, Ohio, NY, and Idaho, and Intel re-equipping one of the fabs in AZ; I'm not sure if there's going to be more. That should help the US a lot to turn into a high-tech manufacturing industry. Large fabs by medium-sized cities that should be able to start providing manpower and housing for the employees but will inevitably start driving up the costs of everything.
Another article showing concern in the housing market- yet the author may have lacked critical thinking
- Thread starter GON
- Start date
On the flip side, Micron and Intel have stated they're going to build fabs in a few US spots, Ohio, NY, and Idaho, and Intel re-equipping one of the fabs in AZ; I'm not sure if there's going to be more. That should help the US a lot to turn into a high-tech manufacturing industry. Large fabs by medium-sized cities that should be able to start providing manpower and housing for the employees but will inevitably start driving up the costs of everything.
Boeing and Volvo Cars built big plants here - along with all their suppliers - and it really didn't push prices up much. Some but not crazy. There was lots of room to build and they still are.
The 3% interest rates and being open during the C word event did more to drive housing prices up - a lot more.
I expect it might revert to its mean eventually.
I like this link, wish I didn’t have to give out my email address for it but was able to work around the pop up. Maybe I’ll give out a junk email look forward to reading it more when time.
From what I’m reading it kind of aligns with my feelings, not 100% but the overall picture.
South Carolina is on fire attracting new businesses, proud of this state, still land of the free, open to business without over reaching business killing regulations, goes to show what happens when businesses are allowed to thrive and grow without interference, wish I wasn’t moving a couple miles over the border to NC.
SC will always be the state I’m proud of.
I guess you’re near the coast based on the companies you mentioned, the upstate is on fire too, thanks in large part to BMW.
Now yet another multi billion support facility in a partnership producing EV batteries about to break ground.
Also countless others that I cant recall the names like Samsung and commercial construction equipment companies ect
Some cities with a reputation for speculation such as Vancouver, B.C. may get hit hard. Vancouver already had a bad problem with empty condos held by flippers from you know where. It was so bad the province imposed an extra tax on empty condos. Some of these folks may try unload.
Yes, we live Near Charleston, but I work in manufacturing so spend a lot of time in GSP Area. It has one of the highest concentrations of manufacturing in the US - or did - others are catching up. I like the area. Also lived in the Charlotte area for a long time and wouldn't hesitate to move back to NC but Charlotte has gotten way to big for me - it used to be a big "small town". Now its basically like Atlanta, nice to visit, wouldn't want to live there.
But don't let the rest of the country know. Were full already.
The Chinese will pay the tax. The wealthy Chinese have very few ways to get their money out of the country other than buying real estate elsewhere. Its a small price to pay to have some security and be at arms link to the whims of the CCP.
IMO, the thing with Atlanta, Charlotte, and a few other places like it that are nothing special is that it's one thing to move there when they were reasonably priced, but to go to those places and pay today's housing prices you gotta be nuts. They are way overpriced for what they are.
Ah.. yes, people LOVE Greenville, My son lives in Spartanburg, works for BMW. He has a pretty cool job now, actually test drives the vehicle on the BMW tracks.
Oh my god, yes, we moved from NY 16 years ago, I remember the saying oh so well from neighbors, even my doctors! "Dont bring too many with you" if they are going to vote the way they did up there! *LOL* I agree 100% with them, I really dont want anymore, not everyone is like me.
You know, the one thing that REALLY bugs me about North Carolina compared to South Carolina if that I am going to have to have annual vehicle inspections, something I escaped from NY when I moved to SC with no inspections, now in NC I have to start again.
I think it's the dumbest thing on planet earth. It's not needed anymore. Anyway, so now I will have to get my cars inspected, my motorcycle inspected, I will have to register my boat trailer and get a license plate for it. God its sooooo 1960's.
So, by moving from SC to NC, now every year I have to bring 3 (maybe 4) vehicles in for an inspection and register the boat trailer and get a license plate for it. Frustrating ... but at least the taxes on the vehicles are way less than the country I live in here in SC so that is sweet.
But SC has a sales tax limit of $500 on vehicles purchased here. I am wondering if there it a limit in NC? I doubt it?
Ps, yes I wish we could close our borders *LOL*
You posted two good links, but this one, interesting to read (and this is just me) are opinion pieces of forward looking statements though honestly even those are not that bad.
I like this one that you posted the best, factual and I think so far dead on. I do admit, I live in a still very strong area for housing. I do know places in CA, FL and others are getting hit but that only makes sense, things can only go up so far before interest rate hikes make them no longer affordable. I like this one below.
https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/black-knight-mortgage-monitor-home-949
As with the 2008 crash things started out with headlines like this
https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/home-prices-underwater-mortgage/
As time went on and those people had to move, change jobs, divorce, whatever
you would find a percentage of them would inevitably go into foreclosure due to the gap in value VRS price owed.
It takes a relatively long time for banks to clear foreclosures in the best of circumstances and the more folks underwater the more often this occurs and inevitably you get a downturn and then a crash.
This typically takes years because normal folks aren’t forced to move every 5 minutes .
Some things atypical about this downturn is
1) that a large number of cash institutional investors went in and want to leave in a short time which is a much faster drain to the market than the typical stagnation
2) A large number of well qualified buyers from areas where home ownership is less common with an atypical down payment bought houses outside a reasonable radius of their workplace . Most of these buyers are “unhappy “ and will have to move shortly due to the ever changing job market and are also many times under water.
If these buyers bulk at the offers and hold on they will get more underwater on a home they no longer need.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/23/why-recent-homebuyers-have-regrets-about-their-purchases.html
The reasons may be stupid but we need to remember these are folks that historically would never own a home or would do so in retirement, they are used to apartments and city living.
One element is fast, the other usually very slow but given the strange work dynamic we might get more rapid movement into the system. Also likely will be a big slug of foreclosures all at once in the high end of the market with few before or after which is also atypical.
https://www.marketwatch.com/picks/d...tells-us-about-the-housing-market-01659181360
Foreclosures are increasing every month with us already to the watershed 2019 era levels. Of interest is that the rate keeps increasing (not slowing down) and the unique phenomenon of zombie foreclosures is higher than normal and increasing (which was a thing during the 2008 fiasco)
Probably have a bouncing ball market in several areas as normals buy houses that are atypically expensive for the area at a discount.
https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/home-prices-underwater-mortgage/
As time went on and those people had to move, change jobs, divorce, whatever
you would find a percentage of them would inevitably go into foreclosure due to the gap in value VRS price owed.
It takes a relatively long time for banks to clear foreclosures in the best of circumstances and the more folks underwater the more often this occurs and inevitably you get a downturn and then a crash.
This typically takes years because normal folks aren’t forced to move every 5 minutes .
Some things atypical about this downturn is
1) that a large number of cash institutional investors went in and want to leave in a short time which is a much faster drain to the market than the typical stagnation
2) A large number of well qualified buyers from areas where home ownership is less common with an atypical down payment bought houses outside a reasonable radius of their workplace . Most of these buyers are “unhappy “ and will have to move shortly due to the ever changing job market and are also many times under water.
If these buyers bulk at the offers and hold on they will get more underwater on a home they no longer need.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/23/why-recent-homebuyers-have-regrets-about-their-purchases.html
The reasons may be stupid but we need to remember these are folks that historically would never own a home or would do so in retirement, they are used to apartments and city living.
One element is fast, the other usually very slow but given the strange work dynamic we might get more rapid movement into the system. Also likely will be a big slug of foreclosures all at once in the high end of the market with few before or after which is also atypical.
https://www.marketwatch.com/picks/d...tells-us-about-the-housing-market-01659181360
Foreclosures are increasing every month with us already to the watershed 2019 era levels. Of interest is that the rate keeps increasing (not slowing down) and the unique phenomenon of zombie foreclosures is higher than normal and increasing (which was a thing during the 2008 fiasco)
Probably have a bouncing ball market in several areas as normals buy houses that are atypically expensive for the area at a discount.
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https://fortune.com/2022/12/13/hous...ers-offering-sweetheart-deals-to-wall-street/
Intensified housing market correction has homebuilders offering sweetheart deals to Wall Street
hit a paywall ..
Use 12ft io
Homebuilders have a housing downturn playbook that’s proven to be effective time and again. They start by offering incentives like mortgage rate buydowns. If that doesn’t work, then builders begin to mark down home prices communities until their unsold inventory has been moved.
Fast-forward to 2022, and homebuilders have clearly returned to their housing downturn playbook, only there’s a new wrinkle: institutional investors. In the years following the 2000s housing bust, institutional investors like Blackstone saw an opportunity to buy more directly from distressed builders. The expansion in this so-called “build-to-rent” category means that builders, this time around, are already floating big-time markdowns to Wall Street buyers.
Last week, Bloomberg reported that homebuilding giant Lennar would begin to shop 5,000 unsold properties—an amount greater than the entire total active inventory in Kansas City—to institutional investors. In some of these Southwest and Southeast communities, investors would have the opportunity to buy entire subdivisions at a discount.
“What’s an interesting dynamic with the institutional investors is a lot of them have been sitting on the sidelines waiting for that moment to strike… [they’re thinking] ‘Hey, I want to buy these homes from you [the builder], but I want to have a discount to do so.'” Ali Wolf, chief economist at Zonda tells Fortune.
These institutional investors don’t just want markdowns in the 10% ballpark, they’re hoping for “20% and 30%” price cuts, says Wolf.
On one hand, the current average 30-year fixed mortgage rate (6.28%) means the housing market downturn is still very much alive. On the other hand, the decline in the average 30-year fixed mortgage (down from 7.3% in early October) means the bottom for housing demand might be in the rearview mirror. That’s why, Wolf says, some institutional investors might be ready to pull the trigger.
“What we’re hearing now is that some investors, because mortgage rates have come down, they’re afraid that primary buyers are going to come back into the market. So some of the institutional buyers are trying to rush in now because they’re afraid that there will be a pop in demand from primary buyers and they’re going to lose their opportunity,” Wolf says.
No doubt about this fact in terms of trending prices overall.
Interesting, first I saw of something like this was in Florida at the start of summer. We were told one entire section of this new community was sold by Lennar to an investor who rents out the homes. It was not far from an industrial center and I THINK a UPS hub. We actually drove through it.
Boy I would be one upset homeowner if this was taking place in my area. Just think, you think you are buying in a single family owned community and find out a portion of it are single family home rentals. Buyers really need to be aware and ask questions, it can be easy to get caught up in buying a nice shiny new home without asking the proper questions and here we go again, if buying in a community one should also check with the HOA, the stronger to prevent this from happening the better but the problem is with new communities, the builder IS the HOA>
This was the community, I have no idea if its all sold out now, we drove through it but never considered it, we did learn from it though, to be careful, lots of stuff going on = https://www.lennar.com/new-homes/florida/jacksonville-st-augustine/jacksonville/highland-chase
Think maybe we need laws disclosing in new communities how much is investor owned vs homeowner occupied when the builder himself builds a community but sells off a portion to outside companies for rentals. Kind of a gray area.
This is a good heads up and makes me have a concern if it can happen where we are moving too. I need to relook at the HOA documents but I don think the HOA is under builder control anymore.
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Interesting indeed. If any meaningful correction happens, it may be short lived if institutional investors are sitting on the sidelines ready to pounce.
GON
$150 Site Donor 2025
It seems a handful of BITOGERs are waiting on the sideline to pounce, multiply that by a percentage of the USA waiting to pounce, including me.
As of this morning- not a mouse to be seen on a MACRO level anywhere in the USA. I am starting to wonder about all the erroneous articles on the state of the USA housing market, do facts and research no longer count? Maybe it is just about how many "clicks" a headline can generate.
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AZjeff
$50 Site Donor 2023
The property that backs up to ours that would have sold for $500k in June was listed for $425k on 12/3 and is under contract. Unfortunately the current owners bought the property for $425k in 10/21. Zillow tracked the 1/21 price at $330k.
It was built in 2018 for around $260k I'd guess. Other properties are hanging on to near peak prices and aren't moving.
So are house prices dropping or not?
It was built in 2018 for around $260k I'd guess. Other properties are hanging on to near peak prices and aren't moving.
So are house prices dropping or not?
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