Another article showing concern in the housing market- yet the author may have lacked critical thinking

I am not a real estate professional - I can only point you to broad analytical data.

Zillow says my house has dropped 1.6% in the last 30 days, FWIW. If its true I don't care, its not for sale.

The housing market was trending up Feb 2012 to June 2022. Over 10 years. If at any point in that trend you bought a house, odds are a month later it would be worth more. There were a few months during that trend where the prices lost a little, but tiny amounts, fractions of a percent, and it always reverted to back up, ramping massively in the last 2 years. That certainly doesn't mean every house in the country did that.

Your current national trend is 3 months down - 2.6% total, which is a pretty big move down. . For how long - who knows - but trends require a catalyst to change.

Local markets can do their own thing, you should make your own financial decisions accordingly.

I am not sure what answer your looking for.
SCM,

The question is simple. What did you pay for your house, and what do you estimate you could sell your house for today? Is it a fact your house is worth 1.6% less today from what you paid for your home? I speculate no. I further speculate you are up double-digit percentages in what you paid for your home and what you think you could sell it for today.

Your home could not have dropped 1.6% in value in the last thirty days- unless you purchase the home thirty days ago.

The shortest window I look at for a trend in single family homes is year over year unless there is a significant event. Although interest rates have nearly doubled year over year, the impact has had ZERO IMPACT on the actual sales prices of single-family homes year over year. After sale price statistic shows a gain. And some statistics are now showing record for DEC 2022 highest recorded sales prices in history of some single-family homes.

The increase in interest rates has impacted the time a home is on the market before it is sold, the number of homes a buyer has to select from, and the negotiation options for a buyer, such as a buyer does not have to waive a home inspection to have their contract accepted by the seller.. The increase in interest rates has not significantly impacted the sales prices of single-family homes.
 
SCM,

The question is simple. What did you pay for your house, and what do you estimate you could sell your house for today? Is it a fact your house is worth 1.6% less today from what you paid for your home? I speculate no. I further speculate you are up double-digit percentages in what you paid for your home and what you think you could sell it for today.

Your home could not have dropped 1.6% in value in the last thirty days- unless you purchase the home thirty days ago.

The shortest window I look at for a trend in single family homes is year over year unless there is a significant event. Although interest rates have nearly doubled year over year, the impact has had ZERO IMPACT on the actual sales prices of single-family homes year over year. After sale price statistic shows a gain. And some statistics are now showing record for DEC 2022 highest recorded sales prices in history of some single-family homes.

The increase in interest rates has impacted the time a home is on the market before it is sold, the number of homes a buyer has to select from, and the negotiation options for a buyer, such as a buyer does not have to waive a home inspection to have their contract accepted by the seller.. The increase in interest rates has not significantly impacted the sales prices of single-family homes.
I understand what your saying - but the overall market peaked - according to Case Shiller - in June. Local markets may be quite different. However if things do continue to go down at the current rate - And I am in no way implying they are -just pointing out the current trend, then it will still take months or years to drop back town to some level in 2021 or 2019 or 2014 when I bought. Or the trend could change again?

I am pretty sure your not expecting an instant drop back to 2021 levels. Which is why I am trying to understand what your trying to ascertain?

Yes, my house is "worth" much more than it was a year ago. Given I am not selling it only hurts me because my taxes are going up.
 
I understand what your saying - but the overall market peaked - according to Case Shiller - in June. Local markets may be quite different. However if things do continue to go down at the current rate - And I am in no way implying they are -just pointing out the current trend, then it will still take months or years to drop back town to some level in 2021 or 2019 or 2014 when I bought. Or the trend could change again?

I am pretty sure your not expecting an instant drop back to 2021 levels. Which is why I am trying to understand what your trying to ascertain?

Yes, my house is "worth" much more than it was a year ago. Given I am not selling it only hurts me because my taxes are going up.
SCM,

Thanks-

Sellers for decades have had less sales power/ pricing power in the fall/ winter months. 2021 was a year that was not the case. 2022 may simply be following a decades long pattern of a softer single family home market in the fall/winter.

As mentioned earlier, I am seeing some prices rise again in single family homes to highest recorded levels in DEC 2022- right now-today. I in no way expected this and was actually shocked to see this. I speculate the reasons homes in some areas are at all-time record sales prices in DEC 2022 comes down to inventory. Homeowners with nice homes and 2.5% interest seem not interested in selling. So, if you have a nice home in a desirable area- you may in fact be able to sell it right now for more than one could have ever sold their home for. Fascinating as all the media shares a very different message.

Where I see a possible exposure is areas with a lot of high paid/ high tech workers outside of California. I am seeing layoffs of high salary high tech workers weekly. Will this have an impact in some Rocky Mountain, Pacific Northwest, Southwest, and Southeast home values? I don't know but maybe. For California, I see no decrease in single family home prices even if high salary high tech workers are laid off. The reason is the friction in Asia. So many adults in California have parents and other family members in Asia. These families have the resources to move their parents and other family members to the USA, and California is the heavy favorite location for these families of Asian descent to live. California has the most "comforts of home" for the families of Asian descent. I think California market will be the most resilient of any market in the USA. I know Florida residents may have a very justifiable argument that they have the most resilient market.

I am in the market for our retirement home. We are cash buyers. I am willing to pay up to JAN 2019 levels and am tracking homes in about a dozen West/ Southwest and lower Midwest markets. I am seeing every single "nice" home in these markets going under contract in days. I am getting a tad bit frustrated, as I was hopeful the media reports of a slowing housing market would equate into a lowering in selling prices. I have yet to find home prices dipping below JAN 2022 prices- and no meaningful reduction in single family home prices anywhere in site from my fox hole.

And in closing- we have lost money on most every home we have owned. So, I am either the dumbest guy in the room to share thoughts on real estate prices- or the more seasoned than others. Sometime mistakes make us smarter/ better- sometimes not.
 
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SCM,

Thanks-

Sellers for decades have had less sales power/ pricing power in the fall/ winter months. 2021 was a year that was not the case. 2022 may simply be following a decades long pattern of a softer single family home market in the fall/winter.

As mentioned earlier, I am seeing some prices rise again in single family homes to highest recorded levels in DEC 2022- right now-today. I in no way expected this and was actually shocked to see this. I speculate the reasons homes in some areas are at all-time record sales prices in DEC 2022 comes down to inventory. Homeowners with nice homes and 2.5% interest seem not interested in selling. So, if you have a nice home in a desirable area- you may in fact be able to sell it right now for more than one could have ever sold their home for. Fascinating as all the media shares a very different message.

Where I see a possible exposure is areas with a lot of high paid/ high tech workers outside of California. I am seeing layoffs of high salary high tech workers weekly. Will this have an impact in some Rocky Mountain, Pacific Northwest, Southwest, and Southeast home values? I don't know but maybe. For California, I see no decrease in single family home prices even if high salary high tech workers are laid off. The reason is the friction in Asia. So many adults in California have parents and other family members in Asia. These families have the resources to move their parents and other family members to the USA, and California is the heavy favorite location for these families of Asian descent to live. California has the most "comforts of home" for the families of Asian descent. I think California market will be the most resilient of any market in the USA. I know Florida residents may have a very justifiable argument that they have the most resilient market.

I am in the market for our retirement home. We are cash buyers. I am willing to pay up to JAN 2019 levels and am tracking homes in about a dozen West/ Southwest and lower Midwest markets. I am seeing every single "nice" home in these markets going under contract in days. I am getting a tad bit frustrated, as I was hopeful the media reports of a slowing housing market would equate into a lowering in selling prices. I have yet to find home prices dipping below JAN 2022 prices- and no meaningful reduction in single family home prices anywhere in site from my fox hole.

And in closing- we have lost money on most every home we have owned. So, I am either the dumbest guy in the room to share thoughts on real estate prices- or the more seasoned than others. Sometime mistakes make us smarter/ better- sometimes not.
I feel your pain. I have no good advice. I am certainly happy I am not a buyer right now - not just from the pricing, but I would be paralyzed by the decision.

The good news is you have options and time. Who knows what opportunities will avail themselves in the future.
 
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It’s unlikely rates will go back down unless another disaster unfolds, such as a severe recession with people walking away from their mortgages such as during the 2009 meltdown. Recall rates fell after 911, during the Great Recession, and most recently during the C word episode. We’ve had 20 years of low rates, while piling on consumer and government debt.
 
That chart is a 2022 chart from what is displayed. Assuming it is from JAN 2022 through today, it shows homes this very day, single family homes are selling for more than they sold for in JAN 2022. And the end of the chart is showing a small, but noticeable upswing in prices.
It shows that average selling prices for homes is trending down.
 
The increase in interest rates has not significantly impacted the sales prices of single-family homes.
I tend to agree with you with one exception, I would say a large part of the market hasn't been affected as far as sale prices which you agree but there are pockets of areas in our nation that had explosive price increases that have now settled down and in many cases come down in price. CA and Florida come to mind.

Northern Florida (Yulee) were we actually almost bought a home in a new community still under construction we knew this community homes and pricing inside and out, 7 trips there at the start of summer 2022. Even had a contract to purchase one but we never signed.

While we looked in this community the production builder was raising prices almost every two weeks, remember, 7 trips and during those trips every time we went back, the same house model on the same lots would go up 5 to 10K at a time. ! We would laugh about it with the site agent.
Anyway, as of today, the first phase is mostly all sold out and they are now opening the second phase. However there are still a few of the model home we loved available do to cancelled contracts, that is nothing usual with builders in any market but as of today, we can get the house we wanted on the same lot due to a cancelled contract for 15 percent less from the builder, today. A number of contracts fell through and in a normal market we would not have seen such reductions. Being the time of year the builder just wants to clear them out, they are almost completely finished.
So, the asking price is back down to the first time we were in Florida and now, as of today the builder is offering $50,000 towards the purchase of any home that is available. That 50k can be spent anyway you want, reducing home price, closing cost, interest rate buy down ect.

Anyway, just rambling on this early Monday morning before the gym. I do agree 100% the rate hikes have made the market a bit more relaxed, that was inevitable and without question its still strong, at least in the area where we just sold out home last month! Multiple offers, closed above asking price 40 days after the first day it went on the market. Its not like we priced it too cheap either, we actually tied or surpassed any selling price in our community in some cases by a wide margin per sq ft

Homes in many markets are still in short supply, I am glad where we are moving in NC the home prices from the builder are holding up strong, I kind of expected it too being it was better priced than Florida and they too just opened the next phase, just got pictures this of the home we are buying today from the site agent, coming along pretty quickly but the county is very slow with inspections and sewer equipment, so suspect we will have a completed home next month and waiting for the county to get their act together. In the meantime we are paying a high rent for an apartment!

(hmmm ... I most likely posted this already, didnt realize how many pages this thread has grown.
 
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In the USA, if you are the front end of a 30 year mortgage, this doesn’t really affect existing home owners, correct? It does hurt new buyers though and that may dictate existing prices of homes eventually.
 
I haven’t read all the posts but news is coming out that Toronto and its suburbs has dived 25% in price. The main stream press is coming out with anecdotal stories of people in a jam. Not good for the ruling party, regardless of whose fault it is.
SF,

Thanks for sharing in this thread- I don't have anything to share on the Canadian home prices, except some of the HGTV shows that feature Canadian homes- the home in Canada, especially Toronto, seem awfully expensive when compared to homes in the USA, even with the exchange rate factored in.
 
I tend to agree with you with one exception, I would say a large part of the market hasn't been affected as far as sale prices which you agree but there are pockets of areas in our nation that had explosive price increases that have now settled down and in many cases come down in price. CA and Florida come to mind.

Northern Florida (Yulee) were we actually almost bought a home in a new community still under construction we knew this community homes and pricing inside and out, 7 trips there at the start of summer 2022. Even had a contract to purchase one but we never signed.

While we looked in this community the production builder was raising prices almost every two weeks, remember, 7 trips and during those trips every time we went back, the same house model on the same lots would go up 5 to 10K at a time. ! We would laugh about it with the site agent.
Anyway, as of today, the first phase is mostly all sold out and they are now opening the second phase. However there are still a few of the model home we loved available do to cancelled contracts, that is nothing usual with builders in any market but as of today, we can get the house we wanted on the same lot due to a cancelled contract for 15 percent less from the builder, today. A number of contracts fell through and in a normal market we would not have seen such reductions. Being the time of year the builder just wants to clear them out, they are almost completely finished.
So, the asking price is back down to the first time we were in Florida and now, as of today the builder is offering $50,000 towards the purchase of any home that is available. That 50k can be spent anyway you want, reducing home price, closing cost, interest rate buy down ect.

Anyway, just rambling on this early Monday morning before the gym. I do agree 100% the rate hikes have made the market a bit more relaxed, that was inevitable and without question its still strong, at least in the area where we just sold out home last month! Multiple offers, closed above asking price 40 days after the first day it went on the market. Its not like we priced it too cheap either, we actually tied or surpassed any selling price in our community in some cases by a wide margin per sq ft

Homes in many markets are still in short supply, I am glad where we are moving in NC the home prices from the builder are holding up strong, I kind of expected it too being it was better priced than Florida and they too just opened the next phase, just got pictures this of the home we are buying today from the site agent, coming along pretty quickly but the county is very slow with inspections and sewer equipment, so suspect we will have a completed home next month and waiting for the county to get their act together. In the meantime we are paying a high rent for an apartment!

(hmmm ... I most likely posted this already, didnt realize how many pages this thread has grown.
AG,

Thanks for sharing your observations/ experiences. When I read your post about the Florida builder, two questions come to mind. (1), has the builder raised prices since he lowered prices, in other words, was he dumping inventory out of fear of the unknown. (2) was the builder going beyond crazy with his home prices, like he could- just like new car dealer were going crazy with four and even five figure markups above MSRP and add on like mandatory paint protection packages for $2500.
 
AG,

Thanks for sharing your observations/ experiences. When I read your post about the Florida builder, two questions come to mind. (1), has the builder raised prices since he lowered prices, in other words, was he dumping inventory out of fear of the unknown. (2) was the builder going beyond crazy with his home prices, like he could- just like new car dealer were going crazy with four and even five figure markups above MSRP and add on like mandatory paint protection packages for $2500.
Maybe this will help explain as I try to understand your question it might be more easy to answer this way.
Ill pick a house in this community, keep in mind the prices to us were already good because when I say new community, it was so new not one person lived there and no homes were finished, not even close to finished and they didnt even break ground on a large amenity center, so when you get in early like that prices are good.

SO here is an example, not dollar for dollar just as best as I can recall in a loose time frame between all the trip down there.
Will pick one lot as an example and wow, we considered a solid half dozen or more lots.

So, house on the lot we selected first trip lets say was going to be $275k for a 2100 sq ft home model in what is being built as a 55+ community.
next trip the house is up to 279k, trip after that 285k and we reached a peak of around 295 to 305k ...
Now that same house is available again, guess a deal feel through, house price is 281k and a $50,000 bonus = 231k
There are others like this as well and I think the lowest is 220 ish k after the bonus.
These are select homes, the next phase is starting and dont know what prices yet. Pretty much the first 60+ homes are all in contract except for about a half dozen+ and of those 5 just came back on the market after failed contracts.

I really loved the Yulee area and the shore by Fernandina Beachplus the medical community in Jacksonville (including a Mayo Clinic) but Im glad we didnt buy in there, Jacksonville known as one the most over priced areas and even those these prices seem cheap its retarded how close together they are built which brings down cost. You can almost litterly lay down between two homes and touch one with your foot and I and with your hand... *LOL* even though we found a lot or two that was better, once you think about it, its going to be so crowded when people move in and with home prices dropping I can almost seeing the place one day being less desirable.
Now we are in contract in the coastal area of NC and a world of difference, this place will never go down to less than desirable, just beautiful nd I have an entire coastline to ride my motorcycle.
 
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SF,

Thanks for sharing in this thread- I don't have anything to share on the Canadian home prices, except some of the HGTV shows that feature Canadian homes- the home in Canada, especially Toronto, seem awfully expensive when compared to homes in the USA, even with the exchange rate factored in.
Absolutely correct. When the house prices dived in the USA in 2009, they did not in Canada. They just kept climbing. Pretty much any single family home worth living in, in Toronto or Vancouver is well over a million Canadian even after the recent drop, which is $700,000 U.S. The banks were handing out mortgages to anyone who could fog a mirror. They especially liked it when immigrants would stuff two or three families in a 2,500 square ft house and have 6 people contributing to the payments.

AF749C9B-1319-4B24-902A-2C29E8964240.jpeg
 
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In the USA, if you are the front end of a 30 year mortgage, this doesn’t really affect existing home owners, correct? It does hurt new buyers though and that may dictate existing prices of homes eventually.
Thanks for posting, I didn't realize Toronto prices had started falling. Toronto prices were outright crazy.

Yes, in the US you can lock for 30 years, and if you don't move nothing changes. I think you guys can only lock for max 5 years correct?
 
Absolutely correct. When the house prices dived in the USA in 2009, they did not in Canada. They just kept climbing. Pretty much any single family home worth living in, in Toronto or Vancouver is well over a million Canadian even after the recent drop, which is $700,000 U.S. The banks were handing out mortgages to anyone who could fog a mirror. They especially liked it when immigrants would stuff two or three families in a 2,500 square ft house and have 6 people contributing to the payments.

View attachment 130655
Do the banks in Canada hold the mortgages? Here the banks stuff the conforming mortgages into Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac - who are supposed to be private but given there under a congressional charter they but got bailed out last time there was a housing downturn, and it will no doubt happen next time as well.
 
In the USA, if you are the front end of a 30 year mortgage, this doesn’t really affect existing home owners, correct? It does hurt new buyers though and that may dictate existing prices of homes eventually.
New buyers if they wait are better off with higher interest rate mortgages and lower priced home because of the higher interest rates.
Down the road the mortgage can always be refinanced when rates drop but if they bought a home with low interest rates but a high home price, they can not refinance the purchase price of the home. SO they have a low interest rate but paid more for the house because of the low rate.

This only pertains to over priced markets, not every market in the USA is over priced and there still are some good hotspots.
 
Do the banks in Canada hold the mortgages? Here the banks stuff the conforming mortgages into Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac - who are supposed to be private but given there under a congressional charter they but got bailed out last time there was a housing downturn, and it will no doubt happen next time as well.
The banks hold the mortgages but there is the CMHC ( Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation), that will guarantee repayment of the mortgage if borrower defaults. The borrower pays a fee, usually a few percentage points and can borrow the money with a smaller down payment if they get the insurance. There are a few private mortgage insurance companies as well.
 
Thanks for posting, I didn't realize Toronto prices had started falling. Toronto prices were outright crazy.

Yes, in the US you can lock for 30 years, and if you don't move nothing changes. I think you guys can only lock for max 5 years correct?
Yes, 5 years is the norm, There are some 10 year versions out there. There also options to float, or take,1,2,3,or 4 year mortgages. The guys who bought in 2021 or 2022 and got a floating mortgage ( rate changes with the changes in bank rate) are really in bad shape.

Keep in mind this is different from amortization. That can be 25 years normally but they can be 30 or 35 years. So, a person can take out a mortgage for 5 years with a amortization of 25 years. At the end of 5 years he take out another 5 year term at what ever rate prevails and would now use a 20 year amortization, and then keep repeating until the mortgage is paid off in a total of 25 years.
 
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