I don't think it will keep "going to the moon". But it's not going to the basement either.
From Realtor dot com--Is a Housing Correction or Crash Ahead? See Where Home Prices Are Poised To Fall Next
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I don't think it will keep "going to the moon". But it's not going to the basement either.
I didn't say it was, but there is an imbalance. The imbalance started in 2000, almost corrected in 2008 but wasn't allowed to via zirp, and here we are. Could go much longer and get much worse. Or not?
So you can measure it in any way you want. Housing cost / median income. Housing stock as a % of GDP. Avg housing payment vs average hourly earnings. There all the same story - compared to long term averages there 2X out of whack. Its just math.
Historically people have migrated to where the money is, for a better life. I am not sure that will stop.
As discussed, all housing markets are local. My comments are a macro perspective. Like the house GON posted - they want $500K for a house thats 18 miles from the border in a desert with no real employment opportunities and not great for retirees.
For every San Jose there is Detroit or Gary Indiana. For people to migrate to San Jose they need to leave somewhere.
GON
$150 Site Donor 2025
Just a side note- the area is briming with retirees. The retirees are primarily from the Pacific Northwest, Canada, and Upper Midwest. I think some of the reasonable assumptions in the area are somewhat erroneous. Modern hospital under 30 minutes away, milder summer climate than Phoenix, under one hour to a very easy to use INTL airport, extremely safe area from the border to north of Tubac (area is significantly safer than the greater Phoenix), very modern lightly used interstate. As mentioned, jobs may be limited.
My Wife and I went to this cafe in Tubac in May on a Tuesday night. We are 60 years old. Place was jammed packed. The funny thing- we were the youngest customers in the restaurant. Didn't expect to see so many retired people in this area in May.
https://www.wisdomscafe.com/
So its not the next Detroit. Somewhere else is though.
It might be in 20 years, when those retirees are too old to maintain those places, and my generation is far too small and too poor to buy them. Or maybe not. Maybe they will guild a wafer fab plant down the road and young people will move in. You never really know.
GON
$150 Site Donor 2025
The area is a key route for produce coming in from Mexico. Hundreds of warehouses on the U.S. side for produce inspection and follow on distribution. I suspect a vast majority of Americans and Canadians have eaten produce being inspected and distributed through this area.
Another note, daily I saw Ford Mavericks being transported from the Mexican assembly plant through this area on auto transporters. Finally, with John Deere announcement last week they are moving more manufacturing from the upper Midwest to Mexico, maybe we will see green JDs coming through this area heading to dealers throughout the U.S. and Canada.
I don't plan to buy/ live in this area- but the Tubac to Nogales area is a growing area in numerous positive ways.
AZjeff
$50 Site Donor 2023
The local knowledge is these border areas are a lot safer than what you'd expect. In this case there's nothing in the area to keep border crossers there, they continue north to Tucson, Phoenix etc.
CKN is a bit harsh but correct, retirement costs less in Rio Rico than most places in Arizona. We had a pastor retire there simply because he could live better. At the time, not sure how it's working out. It's a huge retirement area.
CKN is a bit harsh but correct, retirement costs less in Rio Rico than most places in Arizona. We had a pastor retire there simply because he could live better. At the time, not sure how it's working out. It's a huge retirement area.
Sounds like my kind of place actually. Maybe I can get a part time job at a maquiladora?
I lived in a place with a bunch of well to do retirees for a while - and never again. Not my kind of folks. I told my wife I am retiring in a college town. Last place I want to be when I am old is with a bunch of old people with money that think there still important somehow.
Money is directly related to the standard of retirement you have. So-yea-that's kind of important.Sounds like my kind of place actually. Maybe I can get a part time job at a maquiladora?
I lived in a place with a bunch of well to do retirees for a while - and never again. Not my kind of folks. I told my wife I am retiring in a college town. Last place I want to be when I am old is with a bunch of old people with money that think there still important somehow.
I know so many people who rode the Silicon Valley wave and made really good money. But they lived really well, with gorgeous new German autos and Corvettes every couple years. Some pulled money outta their piggy bank, aka appreciating home.
Now they hafta leave cuz they looked and smelled good. You can only work so long...
Jeff,
My occupation was in the print industry. I sold print supplies to commercial printers. There was big money (not Silicon valley type) money to be made. The very first sales call I made the guys in the room were all wearing Rolex watches and talking about taking their boats out the next weekend!
Then desktop publishing came along and the manual labor-and the subsequent supplies I sold fell like a house of cards. It was good while it lasted-about 25 years!
If your buying a home to live in, or buying a rental for passive income, this clearly is a a different case.
But real estate as an investment is not a given. Consider Austin. It was one of the hottest of the hot markets during covid. Its down 10% since the peak in 2022. Also, in an inflationary environment its not fair to look at absolute values, you have to compare anything to the risk free return of a t-bill or insured CD. So during those 2 years you easily could have gotten 7 or 8% min. So as an investment your lost opportunity from peak is 18%? Now Austin may still be a great place to raise a family, and there may even still be neighbourhoods rising - but its one example. Seattle is down like 6%, Portland and Phoenix are down a little.
And the economy is still booming.
If we ever do have a slow down, I think it may get a reasonable amount worse. Once the tide turns and FOMO ends, things can change pretty quickly.
But real estate as an investment is not a given. Consider Austin. It was one of the hottest of the hot markets during covid. Its down 10% since the peak in 2022. Also, in an inflationary environment its not fair to look at absolute values, you have to compare anything to the risk free return of a t-bill or insured CD. So during those 2 years you easily could have gotten 7 or 8% min. So as an investment your lost opportunity from peak is 18%? Now Austin may still be a great place to raise a family, and there may even still be neighbourhoods rising - but its one example. Seattle is down like 6%, Portland and Phoenix are down a little.
And the economy is still booming.
If we ever do have a slow down, I think it may get a reasonable amount worse. Once the tide turns and FOMO ends, things can change pretty quickly.
I was support of the operation. Statistical analytics; corporate forecast. This is primarily a sales function, as every problem is a sales problem. Corporate forecast drives procurement, mfg operations, delivery and warranty, then customer sat (spares, billable service and service contracts). Then there was the biggie: revenue recognition of very expensive capital equipment reporting to the Security Exchange Commission. Of course there is that little thing called deferred revenue and cash receivables...
The industry, Semiconductor Manufacturing Equipment is bigger than ever. And now there's AI. Here's my career company:
To be honest-I didn't go out on my terms-would have like to work a tad longer. But made some Real Estate investments-so retired at 55 years of age. Very fortunate because getting another GOOD JOB at 55 years of age in a changing industry would have been nearly impossible.
We have something like 2M people with adjustable rate mortgages. Those people will be selling or defaulting soon.
That’s mainly because of manipulation
Most recent blurb is that Blackrock and friends have bailout money burning a hole in their pockets and have started buying out large blocks of property (entire companies worth) meaning yet again thousands of properties are getting locked out by hedge funds the instant any slight reduction in price occurs
3+ months ago Freddy/Franny was running a 10% severe delinquency rate but is not actioning foreclosures against most of the properties.
The number of foreclosures has been growing 6 months.