Another article showing concern in the housing market- yet the author may have lacked critical thinking

[Snagglefoot]

Here is a chart showing home pricing in Vancouver, BC. Things went crazy after the cheap interest rates brought on by 9-11 and the open market for mainland Chinese money, both legal and money laundered.

As of Jan 1, the Federal government imposed a freeze on foreign purchases of non commercial homes. The freeze is for two years.

 

[PWMDMD]

I bought my first home in 2010 in Fairfield CT, a 3600 sqft ranch, for $650,000 and sold it in 2014 for $650,000. When I moved just outside Worcester, MA in 2014 I bought a 3600 sqft colonial for $415,000 that when I had the house reappraised for a refinance 18 months ago was now worth $750,000. I consider what happened here to be a bubble but that bubble has not popped and the housing market is still going strong as far as pricing even though the number of sales is down. Like most things location matters. The financial crisis of 2009 honestly was no crisis at all for me or anyone I knew in CT. Whatever happens with the housing market, I will be relatively insulated here in Massachusetts. Oh, it may go down some, but not enough to really affect anything and life will likely go on here through the impending recession like nothing is going on.

 

[zzyzzx]

Aka Thus far the cheapest homes aren’t deflating.

Not yet, and might not deflate as much.

 

[CKN]

The Realtor doesn't want to hassle with a out of town buyer when there are local buyers who will buy it. Painfully obvious.

 

[zzyzzx]

https://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/news/2023/01/05/zillow-seattle-housing-freeze.html

Housing market enters 'deep freeze,' as half of all homes sell below list price in Seattle​

 

[GON]

https://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/news/2023/01/05/zillow-seattle-housing-freeze.html

Housing market enters 'deep freeze,' as half of all homes sell below list price in Seattle​

I thought historically most all homes sell below list price- so the article's conclusion is that the sale price of single-family homes is strong inSeattle, very strong.... as half of them are selling at or above list price.

 

[zzyzzx]

 

[zzyzzx]

 

[zzyzzx]

Another clear indication of a housing bubble:


is there a website to find cheap homes where a murder happened?

 

[Snagglefoot]

View attachment 134242

Would this be for newly originated mortgages? It should take a long time for people with existing mortgages, with 0 to 30 years left on their term to notice any increase in mortgage costs.

 

[Snagglefoot]

I thought historically most all homes sell below list price- so the article's conclusion is that the sale price of single-family homes is strong inSeattle, very strong.... as half of them are selling at or above list price.

I agree. It’s a marketing strategy in a hot market to ask a low price, knowing the pigeons will bid it up. That strategy does not work in a down turn.

 

[zzyzzx]

Would this be for newly originated mortgages?

Mostly new-ish mortgages. Consider people who took cash out refinancing as another possibility.

 

[Rmay635703]

Mostly new-ish mortgages. Consider people who took cash out refinancing as another possibility.

Recession Could Ultimately Affect Wealthy More — What a ‘Richcession’ Entails

With a bumpy 2022 in the books and a recession-plagued 2023 most likely on the horizon, the majority of Americans are bracing for the impact that an economic decline will have on their personal...

finance.yahoo.com

Trying to find the original “Richcession” article that was a little more comprehensive but the above is all I got.

https://www.axios.com/2023/01/05/home-sellers-are-basically-throwing-money-at-buyers-right-now

Home sellers are basically throwing money at buyers right now

Yeah I brought this up earlier, 2/1 buydowns and other mental gymnastics is what we had just prior to the big crash

It will be spun infinitely as a great thing for buyers, better get in now.

 

[zzyzzx]

https://www.axios.com/2023/01/05/home-sellers-are-basically-throwing-money-at-buyers-right-now

Home sellers are basically throwing money at buyers right now

 

[wpod]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/home-prices-falling-faster-now-194540822.html

Home prices are falling faster now than in 2006​

The proces

View attachment 134242

Interest rates,,, for the cash buyer interest rates aren't an issue for those that finance the monthly payment is what dictates the affordability.

 

[wpod]

I look at Realtor .com and the time on the market is increasing and the prices are decreasing.

 

[wpod]

Double click.

 

[SC Maintenance]

I tend not to pay much attention to real estate articles. There always written with a bias, whether the writer intended or not. I tend to look at data.

First thing I hear is we don't have enough housing. While I agree that might be 100% true in specific markets - according to the fed we have NEVER had more housing units per population as long as records are tracked.

In 2000 there were 116M housing units and a population of 281M people, so 2.42 people per housing unit

In 2022 - 144M homes and 334M people - or 2.32 people per housing unit - so in reality that is about 4% more housing units per person. There are more housing units per person now than before.

I have gone back further using other sources, and the numbers in the 70's and 80's are much fewer housing units per person then - so housing by population has been growing - albeit at a slow pace - as long as records have existed. Obviously cultural and preference have shifted to fewer people living together. But if that is the case, then they need to allocate more GDP dollars to housing and then less GDP dollars to other things. There is no free lunch.

I have no idea which people will choose. If I were that smart I would be living on my own Caribbean island with somebody fanning me with a palm branch.

 

[GON]

I tend not to pay much attention to real estate articles. There always written with a bias, whether the writer intended or not. I tend to look at data.

First thing I hear is we don't have enough housing. While I agree that might be 100% true in specific markets - according to the fed we have NEVER had more housing units per population as long as records are tracked.

In 2000 there were 116M housing units and a population of 281M people, so 2.42 people per housing unit

In 2022 - 144M homes and 334M people - or 2.32 people per housing unit - so in reality that is about 4% more housing units per person. There are more housing units per person now than before.

I have gone back further using other sources, and the numbers in the 70's and 80's are much fewer housing units per person then - so housing by population has been growing - albeit at a slow pace - as long as records have existed. Obviously cultural and preference have shifted to fewer people living together. But if that is the case, then they need to allocate more GDP dollars to housing and then less GDP dollars to other things. There is no free lunch.

I have no idea which people will choose. If I were that smart I would be living on my own Caribbean island with somebody fanning me with a palm branch.


View attachment 134264

SCM,

Great information- thanks for taking the time to post and share.

The one thing from your post I am not clear on- is what is the definition of "Housing Units"?

In Tumwater, WA- it was announced earlier today over 1800 new apartments approved on 20 acres. That is a huge increase in housing on such a small amount of acreage. Many experts theory is home ownership is great for a community and great for a country. The opposite might be living in rented housing is not great for a community, and not great for a country.

 

[SC Maintenance]

The one thing from your post I am not clear on- is what is the definition of "Housing Units"?

In Tumwater, WA- it was announced earlier today over 1800 new apartments approved on 20 acres. That is a huge increase in housing on such a small amount of acreage. Many experts theory is home ownership is great for a community and great for a country. The opposite might be living in rented housing is not great for a community, and not great for a country.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Release: Housing Vacancies and Homeownership


Units: Thousands of Units, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency: Quarterly

Housing unit is a house, an apartment, a group of rooms, or a single room occupied or intended for occupancy as separate living quarters. Separate living quarters are those in which the occupants live separately from others in the structure and which have direct access from the outside of the building or through a common hall. For vacant units, the criteria of separateness and direct access are applied to the intended occupants whenever possible. If the information cannot be obtained, the criteria are applied to the previous occupants. Tents and boats are excluded if vacant, used for business, or used for extra sleeping space or vacations. Vacant seasonal/migratory mobile homes are included in the count of vacant seasonal/migratory housing units. Living quarters of the following types are excluded from the housing unit inventory: Dormitories, bunkhouses, and barracks; quarters in predominantly transient hotels, motels, and the like, except those occupied by persons who consider the hotel their usual place of residence; quarters in institutions, general hospitals, and military installations except those occupied by staff members or resident employees who have separate living arrangements.

Suggested Citation:​

U.S. Census Bureau, Housing Inventory Estimate: Total Housing Units in the United States [ETOTALUSQ176N], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ETOTALUSQ176N, January 5, 2023.

Full details: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ETOTALUSQ176N