You said it, half of all men die by age 78.
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Another article showing concern in the housing market- yet the author may have lacked critical thinking
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Baby boomer cohort is 58 to 76 years old as of now - so 30% wouldn't surprise me. It also means were right in the middle of the population bulge being 65, so peak boomer retirement. It will trail off for the next 5 to 7 years, and the cohort behind it - Gen X, is much, much smaller.Just a quick factoid. Just over 30% of baby boomers have already died.
The ramifications for housing that retirement areas you would expect to remain strong. Why old people wish to live around a bunch of other old people is beyond me, but to each their own.
The ramifications for the stock market are that people near retirement tend to take money out of the market and put it into things that are more stable.
That’s because they aren’t hanging around with a bunch of people with their pants hanging down, noses so buried in a smartphone that they can’t walk a straight line, who can write a sentence without resorting to text-speak, and otherwise have “experience” in life getting stuff done.
Now get off my lawn.
Gen X is smaller but if you take a snapshot of the present condition, because almost a third of boomers are now dead, they no longer dominate the population numbers. The largest cohort as of 2021 was 30-34 years old. Goodby boomers, hello Mellinials.
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Opendoor or Carvana? But those are down way more than 40%
Well there you go, it was no different in the late 70s and early 80s. and guess what? It corrected itself just as it will now.
Houses can only sell for what the public can afford. High mortgage rates = stable to falling home prices. Artificially low mortgage rates = high home costs.
The payment is ALWAYS the same as the public can afford. The only time it is not the same is the transition from low rates to high rates because the homes prices were already high do to the low interest rates. Now with high interest rates home price will adjust and have started to adjust in higher priced markets.
After all, if the public cant afford the homes the homes would not sell but they do sell because the public can still afford them.
As of Nov the market was still on fire here where we are in SC and where we are building in NC we are not seeing large price reductions from the builder and homes are still selling.
Low inventory, high demand - high prices.
The world health event created this by the Fed interfering a bit too much in the market.
There never is a housing crisis, only in the media. Home prices adjust to what the public can afford and debt to income ratio has to be below 45% to qualify.
Sooner or later the housing market will catch up with demand. One must remember the entire world just about stopped production of everything due to Covid. It's not like flipping a light switch and every thing is back to normal. It will take time. I know first hand there are still shortages of some items for new builders, last I heard was a glass shortage. People closing on new homes with glass shower doors to be installed later.
Labor shortages will be solved by high interest rates which will throw people out of work to perform work in other needed areas.
All standard stuff, happens all the time for one reason or another every 10 to 15 years or so
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Houses are now changing hands at a loss in Toronto.
Another .25 % raise in Canada. They’re trying to say that’s it and inflation will start going down. Yeah, yeah.
GON
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Goldman Sachs reported today they expect prices to rise in these four hot markets- then fall 25 percent:
San Jose, CA
Someplace else, CA (I can't recall the city)
Phoenix, AZ
Austin, TX
I know just one thing about Goldman Sachs, they are very connected to the Fed, the Treasury, elected officials- and often make money in not so wonderful ways. But these always make money.
The funniest part of the Goldman article was Baltimore- which they identified as the strongest housing market reference price increase in the nation. Cracks me up as ZZYZZX, the resident BITOG poster of housing market bad news---- is from Baltimore.
San Jose, CA
Someplace else, CA (I can't recall the city)
Phoenix, AZ
Austin, TX
I know just one thing about Goldman Sachs, they are very connected to the Fed, the Treasury, elected officials- and often make money in not so wonderful ways. But these always make money.
The funniest part of the Goldman article was Baltimore- which they identified as the strongest housing market reference price increase in the nation. Cracks me up as ZZYZZX, the resident BITOG poster of housing market bad news---- is from Baltimore.
Survey finds Americans wildly misinformed on housing market
A new survey finds Americans are woefully misinformed about the nation’s mercurial housing market, even as millions of them prepare to buy homes. Twenty-eight million Americans plan to …
thehill.com
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Goldman Sachs - AKA "the squid" - is famous for promoting one narrative and then front running the other side of it to make money for themselves. I am always suspicios when they offer free advice to the public.
I wouldn't doubt their analysis in this case maybe. I lived in Charlotte in 2008, and while the rest of the housing market collapsed Charlotte kept rising (for a while) because so many people kept moving there looking for work. Could be true in those 4 cities. All housing markets are ultimately local.
Cas Shiller will be out next week. Unfortunately its 60 days delayed and a 90 day moving average preceding that - so its usually behind also.
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The average person on the street are wildly mis-informed about pretty much everything I believe?Survey finds Americans wildly misinformed on housing market
A new survey finds Americans are woefully misinformed about the nation’s mercurial housing market, even as millions of them prepare to buy homes. Twenty-eight million Americans plan to …
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