Another article showing concern in the housing market- yet the author may have lacked critical thinking

[zzyzzx]

Bay Area home prices fell more than anywhere else in US last month

A huge change hits San Francisco's homebuying market

The days of outrageous overbidding may be behind us.

www.sfgate.com

 

[zzyzzx]

 

[KrisZ]

Lol about the story above. It was probably his wife that pushed him to stretch the budget and now she threatens to leave.

Doesn’t sound like she is working, I would send her to work pronto.

 

[alarmguy]

Well, housing market is still strong in the Southeast. I can testify to that, being after all, we have looked for a new home since May 2022 in Florida, South Carolina and North Carolina.
We signed contracts for new construction in North Carolina last week of August 2022. Home should hopefully be complete in the next month.
We sold our 16 year old home in Nov 2022 for the top selling price in the area.

Ok, so follow me on this now;
Where we were looking in Northeast Florida at the start of summer 2022, there were some heavy discounts in Dec 2022 to clear out a few remaining homes in the community we were going to buy in.
This was the first phase of a few hundred home section of a community involving maybe 80 homes. No homes were occupied last year, first closings took place in Dec 2022. Well, as of today, end of Jan 2023 the first phase is sold out and except for the year end clearance on a few homes which also involved some that fell out of contract prices are right back where they were and really at the peak pricing of last summer.
They started building the next phase and actively selling now.

Where we are buying in NC, back in August we got a pretty good deal, another section of a huge community just getting off the ground, literally new streets ect, no homes occupied.
All homes seems to be selling just as fast as they can build them and I am not seeing any incentives anymore than what we received, actually I think the price is firming up more now that construction well underway and now over a handful of homes occupied with new homes owners.
An entire block of new homes to be completed (including ours) in the coming 6 weeks that will be occupied.

Furthermore, they are now actively selling the next block (street) of homes and they too seem to be going into contract as fast as they release them. I still have seen one for less than we contracted for last summer and we have every option possible.
What I am saying is, this news story seems to be correct today =

New home sales rise for 3rd straight month as mortgage rates drop

New home sales increased 2.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 616,000 units last month, the Commerce Department said.

nypost.com

 

[BMWTurboDzl]

Well, housing market is still strong in the Southeast. I can testify to that, being after all, we have looked for a new home since May 2022 in Florida, South Carolina and North Carolina.
We signed contracts for new construction in North Carolina last week of August 2022. Home should hopefully be complete in the next month.
We sold our 16 year old home in Nov 2022 for the top selling price in the area.

Ok, so follow me on this now;
Where we were looking in Northeast Florida at the start of summer 2022, there were some heavy discounts in Dec 2022 to clear out a few remaining homes in the community we were going to buy in.
This was the first phase of a few hundred home section of a community involving maybe 80 homes. No homes were occupied last year, first closings took place in Dec 2022. Well, as of today, end of Jan 2023 the first phase is sold out and except for the year end clearance on a few homes which also involved some that fell out of contract prices are right back where they were and really at the peak pricing of last summer.
They started building the next phase and actively selling now.

Where we are buying in NC, back in August we got a pretty good deal, another section of a huge community just getting off the ground, literally new streets ect, no homes occupied.
All homes seems to be selling just as fast as they can build them and I am not seeing any incentives anymore than what we received, actually I think the price is firming up more now that construction well underway and now over a handful of homes occupied with new homes owners.
An entire block of new homes to be completed (including ours) in the coming 6 weeks that will be occupied.

Furthermore, they are now actively selling the next block (street) of homes and they too seem to be going into contract as fast as they release them. I still have seen one for less than we contracted for last summer and we have every option possible.
What I am saying is, this news story seems to be correct today =

New home sales rise for 3rd straight month as mortgage rates drop

New home sales increased 2.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 616,000 units last month, the Commerce Department said.

nypost.com

Where in NC?

 

[alarmguy]

Where in NC?

Sunset Beach/Calabash/Ocean Isle Area

 

[SC Maintenance]

Case Shiller home price index out today. " the U.S. National Index posted a -0.6% month-over-month decrease in November"

S&P CORELOGIC CASE-SHILLER INDEX CONTINUED TO DECLINE IN NOVEMBER

S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for November 2022 show that home price gains declined across the United States. More than 27 years of history are available...

finance.yahoo.com

Note the index is 2 months delayed, and is the trailing 3 month average prior to that, so its not exactly real time.

 

[GON]

Case Shiller home price index out today. " the U.S. National Index posted a -0.6% month-over-month decrease in November"

S&P CORELOGIC CASE-SHILLER INDEX CONTINUED TO DECLINE IN NOVEMBER

S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for November 2022 show that home price gains declined across the United States. More than 27 years of history are available...

finance.yahoo.com

Note the index is 2 months delayed, and is the trailing 3 month average prior to that, so its not exactly real time.

SCM,

I don't track month over month, I track year to date, using JAN as a fixed month.

I am starting to see published models showing a forecasted increase of one percent in single family homes, JAN 2023 to JAN 2024. The only two states with any forecasted reduction in single family home prices JAN 2023 to JAN 2024 are Illinois and Arkansas. And the forecasted reduction in price in Arkansas is under one percent, up to three percent forecasted reduction in Illinois.

It would not surprise me to see three percent plus increase in single family home prices JAN 2023 to JAN 2024 in most Southern and Western states. If the model(s) are accurate, the people that bought at the "peak" of the 2022 single family home market, but financed at under thre percent, may have been a very smart move. Who would have guessed.

 

[Snagglefoot]

The price of lumber has gone down. An eight foot 2x4 can be had for the price of $2.79. USD.

 

[greenjp]

Wife and I have a house under contract here in Montgomery County MD, price stable relative to last year. That means it's still high lol but we're happy with it.

jeff

 

[Hillbilly Deluxe]

I live in an area that is rapidly growing. You wouldn't know there is a "housing market" at all around here for the last 6 months.

There's starting to be a lot of new subdivisions, full of completed, empty houses around here. I drive by one twice a day. 20 or 22 houses, empty, 100% complete and have been for 6 months. Price - $550k.

That's $11M in unsold inventory sitting on less than 20 acres, in one subdivision.... There's plenty more.

 

[SC Maintenance]

I live in an area that is rapidly growing. You wouldn't know there is a "housing market" at all around here for the last 6 months.

There's starting to be a lot of new subdivisions, full of completed, empty houses around here. I drive by one twice a day. 20 or 22 houses, empty, 100% complete and have been for 6 months. Price - $550k.

That's $11M in unsold inventory sitting on less than 20 acres, in one subdivision.... There's plenty more.

I travel to the Atlanta Metro area for business. I know a few people around the area. I could never figure out how people afford to live there. I understand silicon valley, but everything I have seen says wages in Atlanta aren't much more than anywhere else in the South.

 

[Hillbilly Deluxe]

I travel to the Atlanta Metro area for business. I know a few people around the area. I could never figure out how people afford to live there. I understand silicon valley, but everything I have seen says wages in Atlanta aren't much more than anywhere else in the South.

There's a lot of houses being built in this area, ~30-40 miles south of Atlanta, that are $1M+

I've heard that many of them are sold for cash, to people, get ready, "who are moving here from California".

The most hated phrase in my area? "Hey, we just moved here from California!!". You don't hear it much anymore. Many of them were met with a very, very stern warning about how they need to make sure they conduct themselves properly each 1st Tuesday in November....

 

[greenjp]

Wife and I have a house under contract here in Montgomery County MD, price stable relative to last year. That means it's still high lol but we're happy with it.

jeff

Replying to myself, we put in an offer the second day on market. Our agent knew their’s, talked to her, and we accepted a few disadvantageous terms to get them to accept and cancel 10 showings and an open house. Same day we looked at two other places both new on the market too. This place blew the other two away at only ~7% higher price. Those two are also both under contract now. Joints are selling in 1 weekend here. Fortunately we didn’t have to escalate the price.

jeff

 

[zzyzzx]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/blackstone-69-billion-real-estate-134542719.html

Blackstone’s $69 Billion Real Estate Fund Hit Monthly Redemption Limit in January

 

[97prizm]

The odd thing is that in Colorado we've finally seen a slow down of people moving in. However January 2023 saw an uptick of new business filings.

 

[alarmguy]

Interest rates dont seem so high anymore. As of right now, Thursday 2/2/23 @ 4:49 Pm you can with one phone call get locked in at Bank of America for 5.37 @ 3/4 point
It does depend on region and terms but anyone can go to BOA and check home loan rates. I like that about them, everything is transparent.

 

[Tharber]

My friend’s escrow just went up $525/month after 2 years of owning the home.

That's a common thing in FL. A few things he can do. #1 challenge to assessed rate from teh tax assesor, ie if the value is too high then the taxes will be proportinate. Also make sure he does have the homestead exemption.

#2 chances are its insurance related. If its an older home and the roof is old, he will be miles ahead replacing it. ANything over 7yrs old is considered highrisk. It its not old, have him get a Wind Mit and 4 point inspection and see if the insurance company will re-rate him. It also pays to shop insurance, providing he hasn't had any claims.

 

[Snagglefoot]

Latest check on Toronto (greater Toronto area = GTA) and Vancouver.

 

[GON]

Latest check on Toronto (greater Toronto area = GTA) and Vancouver.

View attachment 138930

Sg,

Thanks for posting the stats, helpful.

Some of the stats mean nothing, like time.on the market, average sales volume, etc. The only thing that matters is sales price. During the USA major inflation of the late 1970s, all the stats looked like what you posted, yeet prices increased every single year. The low sales volume, time on market, etc.... Did not equate to loss in sales price

Btw, likely be flying over your home in the next 45 minutes. And I am not in a balloon.