Will modern cars become collectible?

[y_p_w]

I started thinking about this with a different discussions.

I remember seeing a commercial once for an extended warranty program, where the sales pitch was that "Cars are practically computers these days." But to some degree that is true. I'm not quite sure how repairable modern cars with sophisticated electronics will be. I do remember seeing a Ford Model A club with working vehicles. I would guess they were able to find replacement parts made with more modern materials and these days might be able to machine or even 3D print replacement parts.

But all the electronics on modern cars might be difficult to replace. I remember hearing about military electronics where they bought millions of dollars worth of replacement electronics that were nearing end of production. But at the very least when electronics might fail I suppose there could be custom replacements that don't exactly match. I'm not sure how that might be handled with the primary systems these days that are accessed through a touch screen. Could there be a drop in replacement in 30 years for the touch screens?

 

[jeepman3071]

But all the electronics on modern cars might be difficult to replace. I remember hearing about military electronics where they bought millions of dollars worth of replacement electronics that were nearing end of production. But at the very least when electronics might fail I suppose there could be custom replacements that don't exactly match. I'm not sure how that might be handled with the primary systems these days that are accessed through a touch screen. Could there be a drop in replacement in 30 years for the touch screens?

I think this is key, and being in the tech field I unfortunately don't have a positive outlook on it. Most hardware items like computers and phones are made to be completely replaced, not repaired, at least not easily. Some things that can be repaired are actually not cost effective to repair. This is the case even now with modern cars, where entire components are just swapped out because repairing them is not feasible. I have a feeling that will be even more difficult in the future when these parts aren't available. Certain enthusiast cars might be easier, but that is usually due to the community for those cars and their aftermarket support.

I can tell you modern cars make replacing anything audio-related with aftermarket components a nightmare.

 

[y_p_w]

I think this is key, and being in the tech field I unfortunately don't have a positive outlook on it. Most hardware items like computers and phones are made to be completely replaced, not repaired, at least not easily. Some things that can be repaired are actually not cost effective to repair. This is the case even now with modern cars, where entire components are just swapped out because repairing them is not feasible. I have a feeling that will be even more difficult in the future when these parts aren't available. Certain enthusiast cars might be easier, but that is usually due to the community for those cars and their aftermarket support.

I can tell you modern cars make replacing anything audio-related with aftermarket components a nightmare.

I think part of the issue might be electrolytic capacitors drying out. However, I can find ECU replacements for the 20+ year old cars in my family.

There are some weird things too. I remember one of my first industry jobs involved something related to board level testing and asking someone what happened if the board failed. Was told maybe they set aside some samples for failure analysis, but mostly the whole board would be scrapped even if just one connection was wrong.

That being said, I've taken interest from those who choose to repair electronics rather than replace. When someone's mobile phone fails due to water entry or whatever, the manufacturers generally won't repair them - even if just to extract the data that might have irreplaceable photos that weren't backed up. There are prominent repair advocates that will attempt to repair damaged boards, if only to help them last long enough to extract the data. But I could see in the future where it might make sense for someone to try and diagnose and repair a malfunctioning piece of automotive electronics where it might just be something as simple as a resistor shorting.

 

[proveitwithdata]

I started thinking about this with a different discussions.

I remember seeing a commercial once for an extended warranty program, where the sales pitch was that "Cars are practically computers these days." But to some degree that is true. I'm not quite sure how repairable modern cars with sophisticated electronics will be. I do remember seeing a Ford Model A club with working vehicles. I would guess they were able to find replacement parts made with more modern materials and these days might be able to machine or even 3D print replacement parts.

But all the electronics on modern cars might be difficult to replace. I remember hearing about military electronics where they bought millions of dollars worth of replacement electronics that were nearing end of production. But at the very least when electronics might fail I suppose there could be custom replacements that don't exactly match. I'm not sure how that might be handled with the primary systems these days that are accessed through a touch screen. Could there be a drop in replacement in 30 years for the touch screens?

Cars that have huge aftermarket support or the og mfg begins supporting them will be collectable.

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[ecotourist]

Many collectable cars are 50 years old and quite a number are older than that. So in 50 years some current cars will be on the collectables list. Which ones? Dunno. A currently desirable car would be a good start.

The bigger question is can they be kept running? Engines, and at least some transmissions are very reliable today. And bodies don't rot out as easily as they once did.

The only question will be the electronic parts. Electronic modules can be repaired . Had one repaired on my BMW. Circuit boards can be repaired too. I repaired one on a Maytag washing machine. Electronic repairs may become the classic car repair business of the future.

 

[daves87rs]

Worth something? Yes.
Fixable? Yes.
Cost effective? Not so much…..

 

[y_p_w]

Many collectable cars are 50 years old and quite a number are older than that. So in 50 years some current cars will be on the collectables list. Which ones? Dunno. A currently desirable car would be a good start.

The bigger question is can they be kept running? Engines, and at least some transmissions are very reliable today. And bodies don't rot out as easily as they once did.

The only question will be the electronic parts. Electronic modules can be repaired . Had one repaired on my BMW. Circuit boards can be repaired too. I repaired one on a Maytag washing machine. Electronic repairs may become the classic car repair business of the future.

I was thinking collectible as an actual, running vehicle. I once saw a 1957 Mercedes-Benz 300SL roadster stuck at Costco because it couldn't start. But I talked to the owner and it apparently was running pretty well but could be temperamental at times. But it didn't have modern electronics that might be phased out and whatever electronics in there might be the old type where someone can fix it with a soldering iron and discrete components.

I work in the electronics industry, and the thought that something might possibly last 50 years and still work is kind of strange concept. At the very least many electronic boards contain electrolytic capacitors which will eventually dry out, although I suppose they could be replaced if someone is intent on diagnosing the issue. And my big worry would be about the endurance of flash memory, especially since a lot of it is using NAND flash that probably won't still be working in 50 years after who knows how many write cycles. There's talk that it might not even be possible to put away an SSD for 30 years because the firmware might fade.

But who knows. There might be a cottage industry in electronic retrofits for vehicles where the original electronics don't work. But obviously it won't be quite as original as possible.

 

[vavavroom]

The future daily-driven classics will all be restomods with just the shell and the chassis original. It won't be cheap.

 

[vwmaniaman]

The collect ability of old VW's is precisely due to the fact that electronics is not a huge part of their make up. My old 1965 Bug has about 5 wires to the motor. Compare that to newer cars. You can buy completely new wiring harnesses for them. Try doing that for something 25-30 years old. Many of the people on the Samba.com are converting their vehicles to other motors to increase the ability to go faster on the interstate but they don't seem to care if any of the parts for that converted motor will be available when they are 50 years old. I drive mine accepting their limitations for speed and just enjoy the journey on lower speed secondary roads. Besides all that is the fact that Interstate highways are BORING!...My first VW Bug was a 1955 with semifores for turn signals and it had 36hp motor and a 4 speed. Got me everyplace I needed to go and was very economical. It is probably restored somewhere here in America.

 

[billt460]

It depends on their appeal and rarity. I think the Dodge Hellcats and Demons will be worth a fortune, based on the fact the EPA and CAFE is doing everything in their power to eliminate them, and V-8's in general. And they're aren't a lot of the Hellcats and Demons.

Today the only "performance" engines they, (government), seem to want to tolerate are the 4 cylinder turbos. And to many they're appreciated about as much as the last girl at the bar when closing time comes.

Large displacement, high performance V-8 engines will always have a large appeal. Look at the older (1969 - 1970), 426 HEMI Dodge and Plymouth Daytona's and Superbirds.

I remember when those things came out they could barely give them away. Many were discounted because the styling just didn't appeal to many. Today one that is all original can fetch over $1 Million at the big auctions like Barrett Jackson.

Yet when they came out they couldn't even be sold in the state of Maryland, because their laws required an attached bumper on all new cars sold. Sometimes these things are hard to predict.

 

[joekingcorvette]

Modern cars will be collectables. Young people that envy them now and can't afford them most likely will want to buy them after the house, kids, life etc is obtained. They remember the good ole day's and want to bring that back. There are lot's of brand new looking newer cars I see at cars and coffee with low miles on them. In other words the buyers keep them and consider them a collector's item from day 1. As far as replacement parts are concerned I do not believe that will be a huge problem.

 

[Leo99]

I'm a poor predicter of the future but I envision:

EV cars will be faster than ICE so there is little appeal of modern cars in the future for their speed. There might be a strong hobby of people that hotrod ICE vehicles because it's fun to do. In 50 years cars will be more autonomous and EV and driving a fast ICE cars will be on tracks. Just like today, 50 years from now, an old Camry is not going to be collectible but an old Mustang or Corvette will be. There are waves/generations. When I was a teen, 57 Chevy Bel Airs were collectible. And they were only 20 years old at the time. Don't see them anymore.

 

[wpod]

Electronics in vehicles are terrible. I detest them

 

[gman2304]

Imagine a car show in 2074 and someone across the parking lot starts a 107 year old 427 Corvette with factory chambered side pipes or a Hemi GTX of the same vintage with open headers, or a Boss 429 Mustang. A fifty year old EV will never be collectible. An EV never has and never will have a soul. If I have to explain, then you’ll never understand!

 

[fantastic]

While my F-350 is no collectible or exactly highly sought after but it is an HD truck. The point I'll make is that the fuel injection control modules go bad in the main boards. It's literally an electrical board. I just wend down to Oreilly's to replace this board with lifetime warranty. This is a common failure but if there are at least common failures we should have a source or at least some company willing to fix/make/replicate replacements a while from now. We just have to assume w/an educated guess of which vehicles will have a long lasting supply chain. If we look at some basic history it shows that the popular old muscle cars have a good supply today. Throw in the fact there will be electric cars that have electrical boards too you'd think it would be an option somewhere. What hurdles will be in the way 30+ years from now?

 

[RedSpider]

I think some modern cars would be collectable, which ones I dont know. If someone had told me in high school back in the early 80's the dime a dozen rust bucket late 70's Camaros, Firebirds, 240Z's and whatever else littering the parking lots in those days rusting away at mach-2 would be fetching the money they are today, I would have laughed, but here we are.

Honestly I see the market for the '60's and early 70's muscle cars rapidly falling apart in the coming years. They are valuable now because grandpa had one back in high school and when he got into his 40's or 50's and was at the pinnacle of his career and money making days, he had the money to buy the car he had or lusted after in high school. Twenty or thirty years from now when he's dead and that old car is sitting in a garage with the now middle aged and aging quickly millennials and gen-z's are themselves in middle age and wondering what to do with grandpa's old Chevelle or GTO or whatever it is, parts getting scarce, for cars that they have little interest in, and the demographic that did have interest in them......well whoever is still alive is half blind, barely able to walk, and has one foot in the grave and doesnt remember their own name...who's going to buy them? Its going to be an ever-narrowing niche market with fewer and fewer people interested in entering it. That 500HP 4bbl 454 and its 13 mpg isnt that impressive when modern turbo-4's are pushing 300+ and small V6's are well over 400hp, pulling 25-30 MPG while doing it meanwhile 4-door Tesla's with mom, dad, and two kids and a week's worth of groceries in the trunk can silently whiz past them like they are sitting still.

Meh... some will be collectable, most not.

 

[eljefino]

My dad declared in the 1980s, when he owned a 1940 ford, that todays cars wouldn't be collectible because they're "all plastic." Look at the price of a G-body these days... he's wrong.

I just recapped my 91 F150 computer. It went well. Surface level components, though... I wouldn't be able to do anything much more complex. We have "megasquirt" replacement computers, though, and in the future we could probably 3D print the pinout connection, and plug that into an emulator. The original calibration will be reverse engineered and shared online, if anyone cares. Same as how you can still get parts for a 55 chevy... someone cares!

After about 2000 though computers started getting VIN-locked, so one needs to connect to the manufacturer through the dealer system to get unlock keys. If the manufacturer drops that support, there'll be pretty big problems. See paragraph #2.

 

[Al]

at 77 I won't be around to find out

 

[stormgol]

tons of modern cars are collectible. but most of them have astronomical prices. they are the rarest, most desirable.

 

[Vil_Riker]

Will 2024 Camry be a collectible?

No!