Used Toyota Mirais, 90% depreciation (Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicle), ICE / BEV conversion candidate?

[alarmguy]

I have two teenage boys and we have 4 vehicles for 4 drivers. To think an EV can replace all 4 is silly. Probably two could be replaced with EVs as there is always a need for local commuting, etc, but I have to disagree on the hydrogen front. Basing a use case on "what the future might bring" has been a fools errand since Ballard Energy started working on hydrogen in the 70s. Fifty years later and we can see how far they (and hydrogen) have come. Notice how reality kicks the stock back in 2003 and 2023.

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I can’t disagree with you, the purpose of my post are lithium battery powered electric vehicles will never ever achieve 100% market saturation, as you posted I doubt it will even achieve 30% any more than that at this particular, moment in time will never happen in our lifetime, or that of anyone in this forum using lithium technology.

I’m just not so sure why others are convinced other technologies are not viable when we have major corporations already incorporating those technologies in their corporation infrastructure and it doesn’t involve lithium batteries or gasoline

 

[JeffKeryk]

You are correct “for many”
However, not even remotely close for everybody
You are correct “for many”
However, not even remotely close for everybody.
How are multiple cars going to recharge at a house every night?
How are people who live in high-rise apartment buildings, condo buildings, hotels, resorts, any kind of building that’s not a single-family resident going to charge?
I called this going backwards if those people have to be inconvenienced by banning the sale of gasoline vehicles.

However, no matter what politicians say, that will never happen

Sure, there is no one size fits all. But to answer your questions:
EVs don't have to charge every night, but there are splitters that share the load. There are multiple EV homes. The Tesla wall charger allows for this; 2 chargers on a single 240v circuit.
Around here, apartments and condos are starting to offer charging. It's coming.

I've talked to owners who only charge at work. My neighbor across the street does just that. One of the C-Level guys where I used to work was the 1st to tell me this. But he only got a Leaf to beat the traffic; he did tell me he didn't really use the car for much else.
I realize I live in the Silicon Valley bubble, but EV ownership is not what a lot of posters seem to think.
But it is true, these cars are not for everyone.

 

[alarmguy]

Sure, there is no one size fits all. But to answer your questions:
EVs don't have to charge every night, but there are splitters that share the load. There are multiple EV homes. The Tesla wall charger allows for this; 2 chargers on a single 240v circuit.
Around here, apartments and condos are starting to offer charging. It's coming.

I've talked to owners who only charge at work. My neighbor across the street does just that. One of the C-Level guys where I used to work was the 1st to tell me this. But he only got a Leaf to beat the traffic; he did tell me he didn't really use the car for much else.
I realize I live in the Silicon Valley bubble, but EV ownership is not what a lot of posters seem to think.
But it is true, these cars are not for everyone.

So everyone in Silicon Valley only owns an EV and no gasoline cars?
Of course not, the vast majority are gasoline. It doesnt matter how much charging infrastructure is installed.
There are 16 million vehicles in CA and roughly around 1/2 million EVs. I think when we get to maybe 5 million or more we will have a better idea on how things are working out and I am not even sure of the purpose though but whatever

 

[PandaBear]

You are correct “for many”
However, not even remotely close for everybody
You are correct “for many”
However, not even remotely close for everybody.
How are multiple cars going to recharge at a house every night?
How are people who live in high-rise apartment buildings, condo buildings, hotels, resorts, any kind of building that’s not a single-family resident going to charge?
I called this going backwards if those people have to be inconvenienced by banning the sale of gasoline vehicles.

However, no matter what politicians say, that will never happen

People used to say the same thing about gasoline and diesel cars when they first show up compare to horses. Let's talk about hydrogen refueling. You either see tankers brining in hydrogen gas or you see stations locally cracking them out of natural gas on site. So you can ask the same question about: how are you going to guarantee refueling speed for everyone fast enough? I was thinking about getting a CNG Civic GX 10 years ago and I heard a lot of people complaining about getting stuck behind a garbage truck or municipal buses in the only refueling station in town. What about storing hydrogen or piping them? They leak and that's another dimension of efficiency loss too just like battery round trip or transmission loss.

I do believe we will have faster charging over time. Currently you can charge at home probably for 50 miles a day when you have slow 110V 15A charging, and if you work at a place with charger you can typically get level 2 for 3 hours per day and that'll top off another 60+ miles easily. Let's worry about having only 2 EVs at home when we get there but most of the family right now have only 1 EV and 1 gas car. Eventually the newer homes will have more current and voltage for EV charging. Newer apartment building will likely install charging port, and whenever you go get groceries you can charge in their parking lot to "top off". I have tenants with Tesla and we have no charging spot at the rental (apartment) and they survive fine topping off wherever they park, for a couple of years already.

Still, if you think EV is bad hydrogen is going to be even worse. Most stations won't have enough customers to justify putting in a hydrogen pump.

 

[PandaBear]

By the way, does anyone in here ever had a teenager in the household who borrowed your car or anyone for that matter, including a spouse?
My first question would be how do you plug in four cars at a time overnight at a house?
My second question is back to the teenager or spouse. Did you ever jump in your car to go someplace and realize you had to put gas in the tank to make sure you made it to work or wherever you were going?
What was the solution then you pull into a gas station, correct?
What do you do if it’s an EV?

I’m repeating we may have an EV in our own household in the future but we’re retired now and it’s only a second car as most every EV owner has a second car that is powered by gasoline

For the life of me I couldn’t imagine having two or three teenagers with cars and your own cars being all battery operated.

Not sure about where you live, many families only have 2 parking spots, or even 1. 4 cars willd definitely not all be EVs and long commuters at the same time. In these families they likely will have a good use for 1 EV, 1 plug in hybird, and 2 gas cars.

 

[PandaBear]

That's why I've always said that buying a vehicle to save money is the completely wrong approach. Now if you're determined to buy a vehicle or determined some form of need for a one and you have two similarly priced vehicles and one is cheaper to operate and maintain, then there's some data to back up it saving money over the other considered option. Making the purchase while borrowing money and also realizing the depreciation of trading a vehicle in the process for the sole purpose of saving money on daily operating cost is just mental gymnastics to justify a want.

Splitting off the saving now vs later, and what kind of vehicles you should get questions here:

Is it better to buy what may save you money later? It depends. Assuming you are comparing apples to apples, like new car shopping. You have to forecast gas cost, electricity cost, battery depreciation cost, oil change, maintenance, repair cost, and the brands you have no choice and choice to buy from. A Tesla vs a Prius is not a fair comparison in reliability and repair cost, and you probably cannot forecast oil (you should do commodity trading if you can) price. Today I would say the best way to save money is to buy a Prius still, maybe a plug in one. You won't save money buying a Tesla no matter what the fans tell you. Maybe if you compare it to a finnicky European cars you will, but not compare to a Lexus or Toyota. Nissan Leaf owners lost their shirts had they not lease it, heck, Nissan CVT gas cars owner lost their shirts buying gas cars too.


What kind of vehicles should you buy? You just can't predict that much here, unless you know you don't drive much, then you can either buy a cheap gas car new or a Leaf with a worn out battery to go only 5 miles as a grocery getter. If you don't know what will work for you then nobody can tell you 5 years ahead of time what your life will be like. Maybe you will be stuck with a worn out Leaf after you get a job with long commute, maybe you will waste your money buying a long range Tesla after you get a work from home job, maybe you think you will need an big truck to tow a boat then you get laid off and you have to commute 150 miles a day, maybe you got a Prius for long commute just in case but you wish you had gotten a truck you love because you work from home and can tow the boat to the lake every weekend instead. Most rational families would be better off having a hybrid at home and a minivan, but we all know most people are emotional with vehicle purchases and never listen to that advice anyways.

 

[PandaBear]

So everyone in Silicon Valley only owns an EV and no gasoline cars?
Of course not, the vast majority are gasoline. It doesnt matter how much charging infrastructure is installed.
There are 16 million vehicles in CA and roughly around 1/2 million EVs. I think when we get to maybe 5 million or more we will have a better idea on how things are working out and I am not even sure of the purpose though but whatever

Based on my observations: maybe every 5-10 cars are Tesla now, then the same amount for Prius, same amount for Mercedes or BMW, then some Hyundais Corollas Camrys Civics Siennas Odysseys, etc. I have only seen recent new comers with Suburbans Expeditions etc, and a few large pickups.

So the distribution is like: (Tesla, Tesla, Prius, Prius, Corolla, Corolla, Mercedes, BMW, Camry, Sienna, Civic, Accord, Hyundai / Kia) x 3, then big SUVs and pickups.

 

[tcp71]

Given that B.C. drivers travel an average of about 34 kilometres a day, according to Statistics Canada, the study found an EV costs about $8,000 more than the same gas car over the average seven-year lifespan of the vehicle.

I'll just leave this here. It's hard to make people who live in California (Silicone Valley even more so) understand the realities of weather/roads and the real world where EV's are no where near functional.

Can you save money driving an electric vehicle? UBC researchers crunched the numbers

Here's how much — and how long — you'd have to drive to make an electric vehicle worth the money, according to UBC researchers.

vancouversun.com

 

[tcp71]

Based on my observations: maybe every 5-10 cars are Tesla now, then the same amount for Prius, same amount for Mercedes or BMW, then some Hyundais Corollas Camrys Civics Siennas Odysseys, etc. I have only seen recent new comers with Suburbans Expeditions etc, and a few large pickups.

So the distribution is like: (Tesla, Tesla, Prius, Prius, Corolla, Corolla, Mercedes, BMW, Camry, Sienna, Civic, Accord, Hyundai / Kia) x 3, then big SUVs and pickups.

Your observations are based on where you live. Central and Southern California works well for EVs, along with urban Europe. The rest of the world, far less so.

 

[alarmguy]

I'll just leave this here. It's hard to make people who live in California (Silicone Valley even more so) understand the realities of weather/roads and the real world where EV's are no where near functional.

Can you save money driving an electric vehicle? UBC researchers crunched the numbers

Here's how much — and how long — you'd have to drive to make an electric vehicle worth the money, according to UBC researchers.

vancouversun.com

You must remember everyone in Silicon Valley has gasoline powered cars.
We need to remind everybody of that.
We also need to remember Silicon Valley is a needle in the haystack compared to the rest of the country

 

[PandaBear]

Your observations are based on where you live. Central and Southern California works well for EVs, along with urban Europe. The rest of the world, far less so.

"The rest of the world" I know tends to use public transits and scooters, or human in pickup beds, or small cars like Honda Fit and Toyota Yaris, Hyundai i30, etc.

We are talking about the US I assume, and the rest of the world buys very different vehicles than the rest of the US.

 

[TumblrDucks]

FCEV already has a hybrid battery pack in it, would it be easier to swap with an used Toyota hybrid powertrain?

 

[JeffKeryk]

I'll just leave this here. It's hard to make people who live in California (Silicone Valley even more so) understand the realities of weather/roads and the real world where EV's are no where near functional.

Can you save money driving an electric vehicle? UBC researchers crunched the numbers

Here's how much — and how long — you'd have to drive to make an electric vehicle worth the money, according to UBC researchers.

vancouversun.com

This is so true. I see pics and videos of rusted parts, bad weather accidents and so much more. What a drag!
When I see rust it's, "What's all the red stuff?" With snow it's, "What's all that white stuff?"

 

[ripcord]

This is so true. I see pics and videos of rusted parts, bad weather accidents and so much more. What a drag!
When I see rust it's, "What's all the red stuff?" With snow it's, "What's all that white stuff?"

Now you're just being mean...

 

[Torrid]

I'll just leave this here. It's hard to make people who live in California (Silicone Valley even more so) understand the realities of weather/roads and the real world where EV's are no where near functional.

Can you save money driving an electric vehicle? UBC researchers crunched the numbers

Here's how much — and how long — you'd have to drive to make an electric vehicle worth the money, according to UBC researchers.

vancouversun.com

There's quite a bit of EVs in my part of the country and we have less than ideal winters. They're far from "no where near functional." I seem to only hear this from non EV owners, which last time I checked non EV owners should be the absolute experts on the topic.

But yes your assumed generalizations should be taken as gospel.

 

[JeffKeryk]

I'll just leave this here. It's hard to make people who live in California (Silicone Valley even more so) understand the realities of weather/roads and the real world where EV's are no where near functional.

Can you save money driving an electric vehicle? UBC researchers crunched the numbers

Here's how much — and how long — you'd have to drive to make an electric vehicle worth the money, according to UBC researchers.

vancouversun.com

FYI, Silicon Valley has a lot of residents from less than ideal weather conditions. People come here from all over the world.

 

[Torrid]

Splitting off the saving now vs later, and what kind of vehicles you should get questions here:

Is it better to buy what may save you money later? It depends. Assuming you are comparing apples to apples, like new car shopping. You have to forecast gas cost, electricity cost, battery depreciation cost, oil change, maintenance, repair cost, and the brands you have no choice and choice to buy from. A Tesla vs a Prius is not a fair comparison in reliability and repair cost, and you probably cannot forecast oil (you should do commodity trading if you can) price. Today I would say the best way to save money is to buy a Prius still, maybe a plug in one. You won't save money buying a Tesla no matter what the fans tell you. Maybe if you compare it to a finnicky European cars you will, but not compare to a Lexus or Toyota. Nissan Leaf owners lost their shirts had they not lease it, heck, Nissan CVT gas cars owner lost their shirts buying gas cars too.


What kind of vehicles should you buy? You just can't predict that much here, unless you know you don't drive much, then you can either buy a cheap gas car new or a Leaf with a worn out battery to go only 5 miles as a grocery getter. If you don't know what will work for you then nobody can tell you 5 years ahead of time what your life will be like. Maybe you will be stuck with a worn out Leaf after you get a job with long commute, maybe you will waste your money buying a long range Tesla after you get a work from home job, maybe you think you will need an big truck to tow a boat then you get laid off and you have to commute 150 miles a day, maybe you got a Prius for long commute just in case but you wish you had gotten a truck you love because you work from home and can tow the boat to the lake every weekend instead. Most rational families would be better off having a hybrid at home and a minivan, but we all know most people are emotional with vehicle purchases and never listen to that advice anyways.

All good points for sure and we all want what we want. I just don't think at least in my case that there is a single $40k car that would be cheaper to operate and be easier to live with than the Model 3. For the same price I could buy a new GTI($38k) and then there's fuel cost and $100 dealer oil changes. I really don't trust the cheap service promises of any car, especially ICE though. Cheap ICE maintenance is just differed maintenance until something breaks. Scheduled service and even a couple of early preventatives have not been cheap for the little VW. I absolutely love the car(the emotional side of cars) but I know at this point I would have been better to just have bought two Teslas cost wise with very little maintenance schedule and an 8 year 120k mile warranty. I still don't think I would have done anything different though. There's something to be said about the experience and how these machines make us feel.

I personally think it's almost never cheaper to buy a vehicle sooner. The second you get rid of a vehicle for another the immediate realization is the loss in value of the car you're selling or trading. Unless it has serious reliability concerns that are driving its replacement it's more of a want than a need. It's rare the times I can count that I had to part with a car for service costs reasons so I don't really fall into the drive it until you can't anymore camp. I think it's likely common that most people buy way more vehicle than they need. At the end of the day everything is a tradeoff and when we realize that tradeoff the underlying reasoning is rarely not in some way emotional and those that say it isn't emotional are either lying to everyone or lying to themselves.