US Ammunition consumption.

[Tikka]

Hi Gents.
I did not want to take other threads off topic so thought it best to comment here.

I was reading a piece about the Remington Ammunition acquisition by Vista Outdoors. Really great to see they are employing more people. The thing that really caught my eye was the back order for ammunition. They have $1 Billion of back orders to fill. Yes, $1 Billion.
Remington Ammunition Looks to Sunnier Days Ahead with Vista Outdoor (alloutdoor.com)

That is a staggering amount. It never ceases to amaze me just how large the market for shooting supplies is in America.

I read somewhere that one biggish gun store in Texas would sell more guns than all of the UK market combined.

Any chance of a green card? lol.

 

[Propflux01]

Usually political issues, such as gun control initiatives and such, will cause an "ammo run". It takes awhile to get back up to normal supply once this happens. The ammo is out there, its just being hoarded.

 

[thastinger]

They have a B backorder because people are hording ammo, not because people are shooting it at backyard gatherings.
The competition shooters shoot more rounds than probably anyone but 99% of those shooters load their own ammo.

 

[pghvolvo]

Easier to stock pile components for reloading than loaded ammunition. Bullets are the main pain in the butt to find if you happen to have one of the more popular calibers like .223/5.56, .30 caliber, .380, 9mm, 45mm. .22.

 

[Leo99]

They have a B backorder because people are hording ammo, not because people are shooting it at backyard gatherings.
The competition shooters shoot more rounds than probably anyone but 99% of those shooters load their own ammo.

Exactly. The ammo is not being consumed. It's being stored. In 100 or 200 years from now there will guns that don't require this explosive ammo and there will be huge stashes of modern ammo that need to be disposed of or people will shoot if with their antique AR-15 and other guns.

 

[wpod]

People are stocking up ammo for some reason like they have done with toilet paper. I use Tp daily.

 

[eljefino]

The interesting question would be consumption vs end-user purchasing. Are people not going plinking like they used to because of the shakiness of replacement?

 

[Pablo]

Yes SOME people are stocking up and I contend it is mostly new shooters. Anyone who has been shooting since, ~2010 or before (arbitrary date) and doesn't reload (I don't reload 9mm but could if needed) KNOWS what happens and and backed up the TRUCK when 9mm was under $10US/50, 10mm under $15 and .45ACP around $13. I freely admit to buying a LOT of cheap 7.62x39 two years back when it was oh so cheap, I don't reload that and my sporter converted legally with USA parts to AK-47 look alike, shoots any import ammo. I have everything to reload 6.8SPC, .357Sig, 9X25, etc as well. I love shooting 9x18, don't reload that so I have 4 ammo boxes full bought during one of the pre-banics. Point is, unless you are a dummy (me sometimes!!) or new shooter or OK finally ran out (which could be me!) now is NOT the time to be hoarding.

Oh and FTR, I have given, or sold very cheap, boxes of 9mm to new shooters who can't find ammo, oh and I have straight up given AR-15 PMags to folks who bought a new AR and it didn't come with a magazine.

 

[dkryan]

Hi Gents.
I did not want to take other threads off topic so thought it best to comment here.

I was reading a piece about the Remington Ammunition acquisition by Vista Outdoors. Really great to see they are employing more people. The thing that really caught my eye was the back order for ammunition. They have $1 Billion of back orders to fill. Yes, $1 Billion.
Remington Ammunition Looks to Sunnier Days Ahead with Vista Outdoor (alloutdoor.com)

That is a staggering amount. It never ceases to amaze me just how large the market for shooting supplies is in America.

I read somewhere that one biggish gun store in Texas would sell more guns than all of the UK market combined.

Any chance of a green card? lol.

$1 billion is obviously a lot of quid but at today’s retail prices, I’d like to see that backlog categorized by caliber/quantity.

And no, the ammo is not really out there, at least in a retail environment, whether in person or online. Unless, of course, you want to pay two to four times the “normal” retail price.

And of course people are “hoarding” ammo. Just like BITOGers “stash” dozens of quarts of motor oil.

I’d disagree that people aren’t shooting the ammo they have. At least some of them are. I see ten to twenty lane ranges that are busy most of the time with people shooting 100-150 rounds of various calibers.

The question some of us ask, though, before shooting our ammo inventory is “can I replace this 50-round box of xx premium ammo if I fire it, and if so, at what price?”

Good for Vista for buying the Remington ammo line.

 

[ArrestMeRedZ]

Look at it this way. If current events cause just 10% of the U.S. population to decide to become armed, that's about 33 million people. At 500 rounds per person (firearm break in, sighting and practice with some left over for actual use) that would be 16.5 billion rounds. Add to that current gun owners deciding to increase their ammo supply combined with normal usage and you can see the demand portion of the supply chain far outstrips production capability.

Supply is so constrained right now I feel guilty not putting about 2/3rds of my stash back into circulation. That feeling may pass, but if I sold my .223/5.56 at current prices I would have a nice down payment on that RV I've been eyeballing...

 

[pghvolvo]

Remember that 1 billion number is wholesale not retail.

 

[dkryan]

Valid point, pghvolvo, but I’d like to see a breakdown by caliber.

 

[BlueOvalFitter]

About 75% of my ammo stash is 40 S&W. I prefer this rd. over 9mm all day long. All of those nay sayer's that didn't want anything to do with 40 ammo, I wonder how many stocked up on it at the last moment?
If I were to go to my outdoor range at my dads house and shoot my 40 stash every day of the week I would probably have enough to last me 4-6 months. Yes, I saw the writing on the wall very early and started stock piling.

 

[FordMan59]

During times like this I don't shoot as much 9mm/.45 ammo as when it's plentiful but I still shoot a few mags when the weather is fit and I have time. I have enough .22LR on hand right now that was bought when it was dirt cheap I don't worry about blowing through a brick in an afternoon. Most of my shooting is done in my back yard and not at an indoor range so with colder weather coming on I'll be shooting less again till next spring. I suspect this is going to be another long lasting drought on ammo.

 

[BlueOvalFitter]

During times like this I don't shoot as much 9mm/.45 ammo as when it's plentiful but I still shoot a few mags when the weather is fit and I have time. I have enough .22LR on hand right now that was bought when it was dirt cheap I don't worry about blowing through a brick in an afternoon. Most of my shooting is done in my back yard and not at an indoor range so with colder weather coming on I'll be shooting less again till next spring. I suspect this is going to be another long lasting drought on ammo.

I agree.
I was supposed to go shooting with my son a few weeks ago but the Covid bug bit me. After I am fully recovered we will shoot a few rounds.

 

[FordMan59]

About 75% of my ammo stash is 40 S&W. I prefer this rd. over 9mm all day long. All of those nay sayer's that didn't want anything to do with 40 ammo, I wonder how many stocked up on it at the last moment?
If I were to go to my outdoor range at my dads house and shoot my 40 stash every day of the week I would probably have enough to last me 4-6 months. Yes, I saw the writing on the wall very early and started stock piling.

Hope you soon recover from Covid. My son had it a month or so ago. I never bought a .40 S&W but have several 9mm. At one time a few years ago I was thinking of getting into reloading. The local police dept. has an outdoor range about 1/4 mile from my house and they told me I could have any brass I'd pick up for them so I think I have about 10-12K rounds worth of .40 brass stashed away in case I ever decide to buy a .40 and start reloading. They have since went back to using 9mm so I have a few thousand rounds of that along with a couple thousand .223 brass.

 

[Al]

I have around 2,000 rounds of 9mm and 2000 rounds of .22. I am debating whether to buy 5K rounds of .22 for 17 per round. Thats wtill cheaper than the old price of 20 cents per round of 9 mm.

 

[CarbonSteel]

All of those nay sayer's that didn't want anything to do with 40 ammo, I wonder how many stocked up on it at the last moment?

Not me...

 

[BlueOvalFitter]

Not me...

Well, I didn't think you would anyway because you reload.

 

[ABN_CBT_ENGR]

I'll throw this out for discussion because I see it in pulp/paper and a few other industries regarding current circumstances and I doubt the ammo industry is any different in terms of general supply chain model.

From the perspective of the manufacturer or retailer- the product is being "consumed" ( removed from the chain at the cash register)

Whether the purchaser is consuming ( shooting) or maintaining a contingency stock ( hoarding is a media term with a deliberate negative connotation) has no bearing on the supply chain UNLESS the customer is no longer purchasing. (in which case there would be a glut or excess resulting in diminished production as is normal in supply side economics until demand comes back)

Everything I see says people are wanting more ( a vacuum on the other side of the register) but production seems to be stalled as well. ( one would think they would be running additional shifts to make money while the demand is peak)

I think the chain is being strategically starved up and down the chain of key components to make sure the supply is not there in significant numbers. I don't think its accidental.

Just an opinion and observation.