this is the day

[MSCH]

so called peak of tropical storm season, since Lee is still churning away out there.

 

[bbhero]

Yeah…. A day before my birthday on 9/11… today of course. .

That storm weakened a fair amount more than expected… Intensity forecasting is very, very, very hard.

Nostradamus couldn’t have gotten that right either…

 

[bbhero]

Day 13 forecast…. Fascinating. Hitting close to my area.

1 in 500 and likely well worse than that the odds this actually happens in this exact area.

 

[MSCH]

Day 13 forecast…. Fascinating. Hitting close to my area.

1 in 500 and likely well worse than that the odds this actually happens in this exact area.

NHC doesn't even give a probability more than a week out... they give Bermuda a 44% probability of TS storm strength winds a week from now. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT3+shtml/110851.shtml?

 

[bbhero]

Yes sir you are absolutely right of course…

You get 7 days plus and it’s like playing darts but beforehand drinking a 12 pack and then being blind folded and then having two people spin you in a circle fast 4-6 times in a row and FINALLY then throwing the dart.