Heads Up! Big storm coming to Cali and SW

[Shel_B]

Concern is growing that Hurricane Hilary will unleash a prolific amount of flooding rainfall on the southwestern US and parts of California as it makes a rare move over the region Sunday and into early next week, triggering the first ever tropical storm watch for California.

Hilary could dump more than a year’s worth of rain in parts of three states: California, Nevada and Arizona. Because of the threat, parts of California face a rare high risk for excessive rainfall. This Level 4 of 4 threat is the first to ever be issued for this part of Southern California.

Hilary was a powerful Category 4 hurricane churning about 400 miles south of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, Friday morning with sustained winds of 145 mph with stronger gusts, the National Hurricane Center said.

 

[demarpaint]

Stay safe!

 

[SevenBizzos]

A pretty unusual occurance. Right now a category 4, but that's not going to last much longer. The rainfall will. Most of these places can't deal with the rainfall intensity that's about to hit, so that's a bit scary.

 

[dishdude]

It looks like it's going to die down before it hits land, but it will bring lot of rain to areas not accustom to receiving the amount of rainfall. Hopefully flooding won't be a major issue as that is the biggest concern at the moment.

 

[JeffKeryk]

In the South Bay we have a 30% chance of a little rain this Tuesday, but that's about it. We'll see.

 

[Owen Lucas]

Not sure if this storm is influenced by rising ocean temps but if it is, mandatory reductions in cargo ship sulfur emissions are to blame.

Ironically, the sulfur oxides or whatever of aerosols these ships emit at massive levels (due to burning bunker oil fuel) deposited so many particulates into the atmosphere over the oceans, that it reflected enough sunlight to keep the ocean slightly cooler.

Those particulates are gone now, and the oceans have heated up. Weirdly, Atlantic hurricanes have not increased though.

Cleaner shipping emissions may have warmed the planet – but only a bit

The shipping industry has significantly reduced its sulphur emissions since 2020, and in doing so has inadvertently contributed slightly to global warming

www.newscientist.com

 

[loneryder]

Not sure if this storm is influenced by rising ocean temps but if it is, mandatory reductions in cargo ship silted emissions are to blame.

Ironically, the sulfur oxides or whatever these ship emit at massive levels (due to burning bunker oil fuel) left so many particulates in the air over the oceans, that it reflected enough sunlight to keep the ocean slightly cooler.

Those particulates are gone now, and the oceans have heated up. Weirdly, Atlantic hurricanes have not increased though.

Cleaner shipping emissions may have warmed the planet – but only a bit

The shipping industry has significantly reduced its sulphur emissions since 2020, and in doing so has inadvertently contributed slightly to global warming

www.newscientist.com

Are you being serious???

 

[Owen Lucas]

Are you being serious???

Yes, I didn’t make it up:

Analysis: How low-sulphur shipping rules are affecting global warming - Carbon Brief

Carbon Brief analyses the likely side-effects of regulations to reduce the sulphur content of marine fuels.

www.carbonbrief.org

Low-Sulfur Fuel Rules May Have Contributed to Record Ocean Temps

If efforts to reduce carbon emissions fail, there may be a backup plan: geoengineering, the controversial science of modifying the climate by artifici...

maritime-executive.com

Robust evidence for reversal of the trend in aerosol effective climate forcing

Abstract. Anthropogenic aerosols exert a cooling influence that offsets part of the greenhouse gas warming. Due to their short tropospheric lifetime of only several days, the aerosol forcing responds quickly to emissions. Here, we present and discuss the evolution of the aerosol forcing since...

acp.copernicus.org

“Anthropogenic aerosols exert a cooling influence that offsets part of the greenhouse gas warming. Due to their short tropospheric lifetime of only several days, the aerosol forcing responds quickly to emissions. Here, we present and discuss the evolution of the aerosol forcing since 2000. There are multiple lines of evidence that allow us to robustly conclude that the anthropogenic aerosol effective radiative forcing (ERF) – both aerosol–radiation interactions (ERFari) and aerosol–cloud interactions (ERFaci) – has become less negative globally, i.e. the trend in aerosol effective radiative forcing changed sign from negative to positive. Bottom-up inventories show that anthropogenic primary aerosol and aerosol precursor emissions declined in most regions of the world; observations related to aerosol burden show declining trends, in particular of the fine-mode particles that make up most of the anthropogenic aerosols; satellite retrievals of cloud droplet numbers show trends in regions with aerosol declines that are consistent with these in sign, as do observations of top-of-atmosphere radiation. Climate model results, including a revised set that is constrained by observations of the ocean heat content evolution show a consistent sign and magnitude for a positive forcing relative to the year 2000 due to reduced aerosol effects. This reduction leads to an acceleration of the forcing of climate change, i.e. an increase in forcing by 0.1 to 0.3 W m−2, up to 12 % of the total climate forcing in 2019 compared to 1750 according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).”

 

[Pablo]

Nothing burger is my take.

 

[Snagglefoot]

Land slides on tap.

 

[SHOZ]

The Storm has arrived!!!!!

National Hurricane Center

 

[hrv]

The Storm has arrived!!!!!

National Hurricane Center

and if you want accurate information with no hype...stick to this site...www.hurricanes.gov

 

[Dave Hess]

California needs to water, some areas might flood.

 

[ripcord]

I guess that hike through those slot canyons is on hold...

 

[LenZee]

Desert is going to get soaked.

 

[bullwinkle]

Maybe @Chris142 will have a full well! I bet the flowers in the desert will be amazing (on whatever doesn’t wash away)!

 

[UG_Passat]

Can't be any worse than getting hit by Superstorm Sandy back when I lived in NJ.

 

[PimTac]

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/ep0923web.txt

The wave height is getting up there with estimates of 56 feet.

 

[SubieRubyRoo]

Concern is growing that Hurricane Hilary will unleash a prolific amount of flooding rainfall on the southwestern US and parts of California as it makes a rare move over the region Sunday and into early next week, triggering the first ever tropical storm watch for California.

Hilary could dump more than a year’s worth of rain in parts of three states: California, Nevada and Arizona. Because of the threat, parts of California face a rare high risk for excessive rainfall. This Level 4 of 4 threat is the first to ever be issued for this part of Southern California.

Hilary was a powerful Category 4 hurricane churning about 400 miles south of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, Friday morning with sustained winds of 145 mph with stronger gusts, the National Hurricane Center said.

Sure, it’s concerning, but just because it meets or exceeds (there’s that phrase again!) man’s arbitrary definition of a “Level 4”, doesn’t mean it’s the worst ever. It just means it’s particularly noteworthy during the time man has kept records.

Best wishes to all those in the affected area, praying for their safety. Hopefully it stays to the south and dissipates.

 

[PimTac]

If I were living on the coast I would be worried about erosion. Places like Malibu will see heavy surf.