I think this thread will eventually turn political, I'll try my best to look at this as an economical instead of political as possible (criminals are there to make money, obviously).
SF Bay Area is about 30 years ahead of you guys, so we have seen it first hand how things and policies turn out. In general some policies cannot be carried out by one city or one state or else people will relocate, or given a one way bus ticket to go there. It also happens over time as housing becomes polarized instead of relatively affordable, combine with the lost of former manufacturing based jobs, that many blue collar workers end up in subsidized / rent control housing and then a minority of new economy and expensive housing, with few in between.
In the US at least, it seems like we go through new development, decline, slum, redevelopment cycle over time, so when your once good area lost the charm of good jobs and families move to better area, then it will becomes lower and lower income and eventually a druggie area, then when it is very cheap, some politically influential people would buy it up and redevelop it into some trendy SoHo area and it gets cleaned up again.
You've mentioned some good points, which I'll expand on:
- Ontario suffered an industrial exodus after the 2008 financial collapse and the provincial government of the day decided it would be wise to heavily subsidize wind and solar, which drove up energy costs considerably.
- Local housing prices have been on a steady up-tick. I paid $190,000 for the house I'm in, which is worth ~$550,000 now. This has made the cost of entry prohibitive for most young people.
- Average local family income is $58,000. While the cost of living and in particular, the cost of housing, has increased dramatically, the average pay in the Kawarthas has not increased.
- Most new home buyers in the area are from out of the city. Coming from the GTA, where pay is significantly higher. These people are selling their homes there for huge sums and buying here, this is one of the drivers of the high prices. Most of the local people that have chosen to sell are moving outside of town, for most of the same reasons I'm considering it.
- While the industrial exodus was province-wide, it definitely had some local impact. We had General Electric here, which was a huge employer, that's now gone (not that I think these people worked at GE) and GM Oshawa also closed, which was a large employer that people commuted to.
- Many of these people being caught are not local, Oshawa and other GTA cities were shipping their folks here by bus, just as you noted.