Tesla Stock

[97prizm]

Tesla is a high risk high reward (hopefully) company. You are going to get different answers from different people depending on who you ask. You cannot use a typical car company's model to analyze Tesla as they seems to be more of a tech startup for battery and charging then happens to also build EVs, vs a legacy car company who happens to build EV as well. There is no way in heck Tesla would have worth that much if it is just a car company and if the other aspect of Tesla failed (i.e. power wall, solar, emission credit, unable to borrow more money from investors or lenders to keep growing), then it can crash way faster and beyond a "traditional" company.

I wish them well, but I don't know if I should trust a company who earn a majority of its money from crypto while selling cars. Maybe they will do well but it may also bite them in the butt when lease expected.

They also still earn carbon offset credits. If it wasn't for fascist California requiring the stupid offset credits then Tesla would have gone bankrupt.

 

[97prizm]

I have never said that EV's will overtake ICE vehicles in the near term. I don't think they will reach the 50% point until at least 2030.

What difference does it make where Tesla's profits come from or how they report sales? This discussion is about the stock value of TSLA. Regarding BYD, yes they are capturing a large segment of the market. But depending upon who is bribed they may or may not be able to be sold in the US in large numbers and there will be resistance from US buyers to buying a Chinese car.

Will US sales or lack thereof of BYD EV's impact TSLA's valuation in the coming years. Probably. Will they prevent TS:A from reaching $400, or even $1000 in the next few years ? We'll see but I'm letting my shares ride for a while betting that it won't be long until they at least reach previous highs. TS:A's valuation is still very much tied to the macro financial market, interest rates and overall poor economy.

I'm sure not ignoring the competition to Tesla. But I don't have a lot of confidence that any other makers will come close in terms of performance or profitability for many, many years. In the meantime Tesla will continue to innovate and ramp up production. Because they can. The others ?

Ford is facing yet another massive and expensive recall on their ICE vehicles for catastrophic engine failures due to defective valves. They have been making vehicles for over 110 years and still have very costly recalls for serious issues. I don't have a lot of confidence that they will be able to manufacture EV's that aren't troublesome.

Both Ford and GM are going to be hampered by their deal with the devil (UAW). Let's see where their stock value is when the economic conditions improve.

Many sources say that Chinese automakers missed the boat on setting up dealerships and sales. BYD and Great Wall from what I remember purchased land and several empty dealerships to setup. Not sure what happened but the thought was that they would be selling vehicles by 2011-2012.

 

[alarmguy]

Doubt this will impact Tesla stock price. Unless there is a smoking gun but I doubt it. To me seems like a witch hunt, these endless hunts against certain people of stature in our country is a bit creepy. (no politics needed) Meaning, ugh... looking for crimes and victims of that crime that may not exist or may exist for many companies or people but certain people/companies are singled out only at the whim of the investigation heads... unless people are truly "harmed" then no excuse.


PS, I see the SEC is trying to have a Judge force him to testify about his purchase of Twitter. Musk was a no show at an agreed questioning Sept 15th. In his defense he testified previously and indicated they will not longer participate.

 

[Snagglefoot]

They also still earn carbon offset credits. If it wasn't for fascist California requiring the stupid offset credits then Tesla would have gone bankrupt.

It was the perfect situation for Elon. Carbon credits and tax breaks for EV’s, and California population anxious to drink the Koolaid. At that point Elon said, “Ok, wrap it. Several thousand batteries will work well enough.”

 

[97prizm]

Doubt this will impact Tesla stock price. Unless there is a smoking gun but I doubt it. To me seems like a witch hunt, these endless hunts against certain people of stature in our country is a bit creepy. (no politics needed) Meaning, ugh... looking for crimes and victims of that crime that may not exist or may exist for many companies or people but certain people/companies are singled out only at the whim of the investigation heads... unless people are truly "harmed" then no excuse.


PS, I see the SEC is trying to have a Judge force him to testify about his purchase of Twitter. Musk was a no show at an agreed questioning Sept 15th. In his defense he testified previously and indicated they will not longer participate.

There's no witch hunt. No fewer than 12 engineers at Tesla have publicly spoken out and have gone to multiple regulatory agencies over Elons claims that in 2016 (The video I think is still on the website) that the Model X needed "No human intervention and can drive 100% on its own." The first vehicle crashed and was a write off needing a second to finish the video. Both vehicles needed continuous human input. Engineers pointed this out yet nothing is done about it. Recently his stunt where he's streaming the new version of fsd or whatever the model Y drives itself into the oncoming lane eventually correcting itself. If anyone on this board ran a business like that they'd be sitting in federal prison. Didn't the Muskrat state positively that the "Unveiling of the Cybertruck " would happen in September? What happened?

 

[alarmguy]

There's no witch hunt. No fewer than 12 engineers at Tesla have publicly spoken out and have gone to multiple regulatory agencies over Elons claims that in 2016 (The video I think is still on the website) that the Model X needed "No human intervention and can drive 100% on its own." The first vehicle crashed and was a write off needing a second to finish the video. Both vehicles needed continuous human input. Engineers pointed this out yet nothing is done about it. Recently his stunt where he's streaming the new version of fsd or whatever the model Y drives itself into the oncoming lane eventually correcting itself. If anyone on this board ran a business like that they'd be sitting in federal prison. Didn't the Muskrat state positively that the "Unveiling of the Cybertruck " would happen in September? What happened?

I agree with you 100% but my post is about the news on Musk and Twitter not Tesla
Maybe I didnt make clear, in my mind was if there was a smoking gun at Twitter more than civil but criminal it could affect anything related to Musk. I dont believe there is but it concerns me about targeting people in public witch hunts (no politics) and I am feeling a bit like third world country. Im all good with equally enforcing laws, 100% I believe in following the law but no politics.

Meaning almost every uber wealthy person can have stuff in the "closet" being so wealthy makes hiding things much more tricky but the question is always, was anyone harmed? I agree like another very public figure in our country, I think Musk sometimes talks a wee bit too much. The guy is a genus for sure, but he has a lot of things on his plate and let's face it, he is challenging the powers that be with "X" on top of everything else. Sometimes carrying a big stick and staying quiet can be more effective, rather than people try to take you down.
BTW- I have no idea what I am talking about and need to leave and get a haircut

 

[97prizm]

I agree with you 100% but my post is about the news on Musk and Twitter not Tesla
Maybe I didnt make clear, in my mind was if there was a smoking gun at Twitter more than civil but criminal it could affect anything related to Musk. I dont believe there is but it concerns me about targeting people in public witch hunts (no politics) and I am feeling a bit like third world country. Im all good with equally enforcing laws, 100% I believe in following the law but no politics.

Meaning almost every uber wealthy person can have stuff in the "closet" being so wealthy makes hanging things much more tricky but the question is always, was anyone harmed. I agree like another very public figure in our country, I think Musk sometimes talks a wee bit too much. The guy is a genus for sure, but he has a lot of things on his plate and let's face it, he is challenging the powers that be with "X" on top of everything else. Sometimes carrying a big stick and staying quiet can be more effective, rather than people try to take you down.
BTW- I have no idea what I am talking about and need to leave and get a haircut

I get the "X" thing. The FTC? Or whomever regulates businesses are investigating Musk after numerous Tesla employees were sent to "x" to help with the dumpster fire.

 

[alarmguy]

I get the "X" thing. The FTC? Or whomever regulates businesses are investigating Musk after numerous Tesla employees were sent to "x" to help with the dumpster fire.

Yeah, I agree if that’s it but if I remember correctly, the official line is they were not on the Tesla time clock
Now, if they were, that’s a whole other story.
Musk is a employee of Tesla, and he cannot order other employees to go work on one of his personal projects while being paid by Tesla

I do understand much of the public has no clue that Tesla is not Elon Musk’s company
He’s just CEO hired by the board of directors and can actually be fired anytime they want.
Granted, Musk has a large holding in the company but that does not guarantee his position at the company

 

[97prizm]

TSLA is up $15, 6% today, after the qtr delivery miss. S&P is basically flat, even while being buoyed by TSLA. What gives?
The miss was baked in; Tesla told the market they were entering change over.
And the bears were likely covering their shorts? And getting killed?
And/or the bulls shrugged off the miss as just doing business?

Of course there is a simple explanation: TSLA is a volatile stock; swings are the norm. Not for the faint of heart...

Tesla just cut prices again. The only time Tesla has ever cut prices is when sales are down. They missed their sales mark by 35,000 plus units, and this time you can't say oh it was a supply issue. This is the fourth straight quarter where Tesla has more supply than demand. Face it if the board of directors at Tesla were smart Musk would be gone tomorrow. He's done all he can di, I don't see any real improvement. He's constantly changing vehicle specifications randomly making up statistics on products, he's caused most of their top talent to leave.

• The latest round of price cuts comes just days after Tesla reported third-quarter deliveries of 435,059 vehicles, missing analyst expectations and marking a decline from the previous quarter.

 

[JeffKeryk]

Tesla just cut prices again. The only time Tesla has ever cut prices is when sales are down. They missed their sales mark by 35,000 plus units, and this time you can't say oh it was a supply issue. This is the fourth straight quarter where Tesla has more supply than demand. Face it if the board of directors at Tesla were smart Musk would be gone tomorrow. He's done all he can di, I don't see any real improvement. He's constantly changing vehicle specifications randomly making up statistics on products, he's caused most of their top talent to leave.

• The latest round of price cuts comes just days after Tesla reported third-quarter deliveries of 435,059 vehicles, missing analyst expectations and marking a decline from the previous quarter.

I am not sure anyone called it a supply issue. It is a factory change over to the new Model 3. Buyers, like me, are waiting for the Highland.
And no, slow sales demand is not the only reason to cut prices. Only Tesla makes money on EVs. Cutting prices is a competitor squeeze; competitors already lose billions on their EV business.

You understand that manufacturing companies need full factory utilization to lower production cost, right?

Does Tesla a demand problem? They say they are still on track for 1.8M deliveries this year; that is unchanged.
Time will tell. They have their work cut out for them, that's for sure.

 

[GON]

Musk is a genius having so many high paying jobs at TSLA and X located in California. Had all these jobs been in Arkansas, Ohio, Iowa, etc ..... Elon would be under seize from huge forces. Having TSLA generate so much tax revenue for California, keeps people with influence to ruin his businesses a bit farther away.

 

[PandaBear]

Musk is a genius having so many high paying jobs at TSLA and X located in California. Had all these jobs been in Arkansas, Ohio, Iowa, etc ..... Elon would be under seize from huge forces. Having TSLA generate so much tax revenue for California, keeps people with influence to ruin his businesses a bit farther away.

What do you mean he would be under seize from huge forces? Because he creates jobs?

I don't think Tesla / X are the biggest employers here, I think Google / Facebook (Meta) / Microsoft / Apple / Amazon hire way more each.

 

[GON]

What do you mean he would be under seize from huge forces? Because he creates jobs?

I don't think Tesla / X are the biggest employers here, I think Google / Facebook (Meta) / Microsoft / Apple / Amazon hire way more each.

If TSLA and x had very small workforce in California, I imagine Elon Musk would be a massive target. Can't say more than that without violating BITOG terms of service.

I suspect TSLA generates thousands of very highly paid California jobs that are not direct reports to TSLA. One very small example is the electric car industry lobbyist, I am sure the vast majority of these lobbyist are California based.

 

[PandaBear]

If TSLA and x had very small workforce in California, I imagine Elon Musk would be a massive target. Can't say more than that without violating BITOG terms of service.

I suspect TSLA generates thousands of very highly paid California jobs that are not direct reports to TSLA. One very small example is the electric car industry lobbyist, I am sure the vast majority of these lobbyist are California based.

I think, the people here care more about stock price than how many jobs you create...

 

[GON]

I think, the people here care more about stock price than how many jobs you create...

That is very short sighted. I promise you every official in California elected to federal office knows exactly how many people are working in their district, both in the private and public sector. And likely have details of who works where, and the aligning statistics. You would be surprised.

 

[97prizm]

Elon bought Twitters just like Jeff Bezos bought WaPo, as a hedge against political attacks in the media. I don’t think Elon did well in finance as Twitter is failing financially.

I don’t have problems with subscriptions of features but I do hope he will sell base model short range EVs cheap. In the end EV is a perishable item so as long as the cost per mile is cheap I am ok.

Elin said recently that Twitter could go belly up by June or July of next year.

 

[DwightFrye]

That contradicts the recent prediction that X or Twitter will be profitable by the end of Q1 2024. But sure, Twitter could go belly up by Q3. But I wouldn't bank on it. In fact smart money says that with the upcoming election, a site like X is going to be getting so much traffic that advertisers are going to be paying some huge amounts of money to have visibility there.
Elon is going to be grinning like the Chesire cat in my opinion.

Regarding Tesla having more supply than demand, on the face of it a statement like that seems to be highly negative. But once again, context is important. Except to those who are easily manipulated because they hate Elon and Tesla.
The context is that those excess vehicles are just a few short week's supply and are shipped and sold without any problem.
It's not really an issue. Except to those looking to make it one.

 

[JeffKeryk]

If TSLA and x had very small workforce in California, I imagine Elon Musk would be a massive target. Can't say more than that without violating BITOG terms of service.

I suspect TSLA generates thousands of very highly paid California jobs that are not direct reports to TSLA. One very small example is the electric car industry lobbyist, I am sure the vast majority of these lobbyist are California based.

You can make the case that it is the other way around. The Silicon Valley area is the land of innovation. Where else does a crazy Tesla undertaking and incredible success story occur? We have the engineering, software, investment resources and customers who are willing to pay for new.

Or an Apple, Google, etc? Perhaps you know, a couple years ago Ford procured office space in Palo Alto because they needed the local expertise required for their future technology endeavors. They believed this was the place to go.

A few short years ago Tesla was this ridiculous EV start up that made an expensive 2 seater and was burning cash. Gonna be belly up any day now... Nearly out of business in 2018 due to robotics downtime. Today they are the most valuable car company in the world by a huge margin. Yeah, Musk needs CA.

 

[PandaBear]

That is very short sighted. I promise you every official in California elected to federal office knows exactly how many people are working in their district, both in the private and public sector. And likely have details of who works where, and the aligning statistics. You would be surprised.

Yes and no. Sure they need workers and jobs but at the moment (say after 2015, short sight enough but not too short), we have a housing shortage vs a job shortage. So much shortage that a lot of older less profitable companies are moving out of SF and their former offices are torn up and turned into high end apartment complex, renting 2k a month for studio, 3k a month for 1 bedroom, 4k a month for 2 bedroom, etc. Most people ended up welcoming that and nobody complains about jobs moving to Texas, those who haven't bought a home, many of them just move elsewhere with the companies.

Examples of companies selling their offices and turning them into housing: Cisco, IBM, Sun Micro, and many smaller single story business parks.

Currently there's a downturn here and many are out of work, but those people are likely specialized workers who were making 120-400k and won't do $25/hr "normal" jobs the rest of the country is doing. Those making less than $30/hr are doing well and in short supply.

The biggest local issues aren't "jobs". They are usually housing, crime, "environmentalism", etc etc.

 

[E365]

Not super rosy results for Tesla in Europe in September.

AutoExpress reports for September 2023, the Tesla Model Y fell out of the Top 10 cars sold in the UK.

And in Germany, Marklines.com reports Tesla only sold 4,216 vehicles in September 2023, compared to 13,724 in September 2022, a drop of 69%. Apparently the Gov’t EV incentives for “company cars” ended Sept 1st.

Earlier reports of Tesla cutting Model Y production at the Berlin plant.