Tesla Stock

[alarmguy]

Not super rosy results for Tesla in Europe in September.

AutoExpress reports for September 2023, the Tesla Model Y fell out of the Top 10 cars sold in the UK.

And in Germany, Marklines.com reports Tesla only sold 4,216 vehicles in September 2023, compared to 13,724 in September 2022, a drop of 69%. Apparently the Gov’t EV incentives for “company cars” ended Sept 1st.

Earlier reports of Tesla cutting Model Y production at the Berlin plant.

Agree and disregarding negative remarks that insinuate "Tesla Haters" to the Wall Street elite Tesla is a train wreck with recent results.
We will see if they can continue to justify P/E multiples of hundreds more percent than all their peers. Lets face it the stock has to go up roughly 70% to match its high of a couple years ago ... and... I dont think so... maybe down another 70% by 2025 if not this year.

The once hailed high margins are sinking faster than the Titanic. Even from last years lower profit margins much worse this year too.

"Tesla's total GAAP gross margin fell to 18.2 percent compared to 25 percent for the same quarter in 2022. Operating margins also fell, from 14.6 percent in Q2 2022 to 9.6 percent in Q2 2023."

Source = https://arstechnica.com/cars/2023/0...-to-25-billion-but-margin-shrinks-in-q2-2023/

 

[JohnnyG]

Read this morning that the price of the Model 3 (?) was lowered again.

 

[alarmguy]

Read this morning that the price of the Model 3 (?) was lowered again.

They brought back the rear wheel drive of years ago because of the price reduction. (but I noticed I was wrong, you are talking about the Model 3 this is the model Y)
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/t...-drive-model-y-in-u-s-at-lower-price-c5c64676

 

[UncleDave]

Read this morning that the price of the Model 3 (?) was lowered again.

In the US they did. As soon as these are gone and the highland upgrades start they will bump right back up.

The base model 3 came down $1,250 to $38,990 (pretty solid value in a world where the average new vehicle is 45K)
The Model 3 Long Range came down $1,250 to $45,990.
The Model 3 Performance price lowered by $2,250 to $53,240.

In other discount notes:
Audi is offering a discount on the 2023 RS e-tron GT of $20,000.

 

[alarmguy]

Averages are misleading, it implies (to some, not saying you) that half the population pays an average price of 45k which is way off and not even close but trying to find the median price in automobiles is almost impossible as far as I can find. The median price is what half the population pays.
Even this is messed up but look at the averages compared to a Tesla of the most popular which is sales buries Tesla.
https://www.businessinsider.com/mos...tion-pandemic-2023-4?op=1#chevrolet-equinox-1

 

[UncleDave]

Averages are misleading, it implies (to some, not saying you) that half the population pays an average price of 45k which is way off and not even close but trying to find the median price in automobiles is almost impossible as far as I can find. The median price is what half the population pays.
Even this is messed up but look at the averages compared to a Tesla of the most popular which is sales buries Tesla.
https://www.businessinsider.com/mos...tion-pandemic-2023-4?op=1#chevrolet-equinox-1

I typically look at a few industry sources.

I think Kelly Blue Book says the number is 48 in April or May of this year.

 

[JeffKeryk]

The Tesla price reductions over this year have brought down both the average and median prices because Tesla sells a lotta cars.
I expect these metrics to continue to come down as the dealer adjustments are adjusted down...
But this economy is in a buying mood; prices be ****ed!

 

[alarmguy]

Tesla China Deliveries dive 11% in September

BYD EV Deliveries rise in Sept 4.8%

BYD sold almost as many EV cars as Tesla in the third quarter
431,603 to Teslas 435,059

10 years ago, Elon Musk laughed at the prospect of BYD being in competition with Tesla when directly questioned.

I submit, just as others in this group laugh at the prospect of GM being EV competition just as Musk did BYD, GM buries Tesla in vehicle deliveries and now they will be producing EV powered vehicles, as well as ice.

@demarpaint

 

[ME_Andy]

It might mean something, or it might be that more cars were exported to sell somewhere else.

 

[alarmguy]

It might mean something, or it might be that more cars were exported to sell somewhere else.

???

BYD sold almost as many EV cars world wide as Tesla
BYD 431,603
Tesla 435.059

Im not sure of your point though, both companies export cars to other countries. Actually just one year ago (haven't tried to find out this years number. Half of all Tesla's produced in China were exported.
Im sure you can acknowledge sales and deliveries are supposed to go up in a new market with a new vehicle as an EV, not down 11%.
Of course it means something, down 11% is significant in an EV market that is brand new and competition from the world largest automakers in its infancy, hardly even born yet.

 

[PandaBear]

When Tesla grew from a botique roadster company to a mass market commodity EV company they of course would have the margin and price goes down. You have to if you want to expand and sell more cars. Having said that, they are still the cool cars to have at the moment and everyone now wants a Tesla instead of a BMW / Mercedes (at least in the Bay Area). The future of Tesla eventually would be in competition with BYD and Toyota. Looks like they are up against BYD now if not very soon and they have to keep streamlining and invest into efficiency to stay ahead.

Wonder what would the big 2.5 do when oil price force people to go back to cars instead of buying quad cabs. That's a bigger concern to them, not EVs.

 

[UncleDave]

Meh... Tesla is slightly up today as of this mail anyway.

Why aren't they being slaughtered by the street for this 11% dip in China ?

Because it was expected.

You cant shut down a line for upgrades and make cars with it at the same time.

 

[alarmguy]

It might mean something, or it might be that more cars were exported to sell somewhere else.

They both export cars. Tesla down 11% BYD up 4.8%

 

[alarmguy]

Meh... Tesla is slightly up today as of this mail anyway.

Why aren't they being slaughtered by the street for this 11% dip in China ?

Because it was expected.

You cant shut down a line for upgrades and make cars with it at the same time.

Meh ... for the same reason Tesla is selling at 70 times earnings while its competition sells at 1/10 of that.
For the same reason Bitcoin sells at what it does.
Speculation, nothing more or less. Some get wealthy others lose a fortune or life savings.
Let's not forget Tesla has to go up 50 to 70% for some people to break even from when they bought and on the flip side some people made 100% by gambling back in January when it went up 100% this year.

Let's not forget, many investors in these types of stocks are not the big institutions. ITs a wild card, just depends on what side you are on. We could have had this same exact conversation when Tesla was $400 a share just two years ago but we didnt. Lives ruined for those who gamble in the stock market but we never hear of it.
We only hear of the successes not the fact that Tesla stock has been in the dumpster since.

 

[JeffKeryk]

Yeah, TSLA is up 146% YTD. Volatile? Sure. I ain't selling mine.
All the prognosticators have been dead wrong. The shorts have been killed.
The butt-ugly Cybertruck release (2M reservations?), Model 3 and Y refresh are in process and the Model 2 will be in production in a year or so at the new state-of-the-art Monterrey plant. India is next?

 

[DwightFrye]

When TSLA qualified to be part of the S&P 500 at the end of 2020 it also allowed that stock to be part of the mix that the big institutional investment firms offered in their IRA's and 401k's. So a great many Americans own TSLA shares whether they know it or not.

TSLA stock in the dumpster ? At this moment, it's around $265. Ford is a little over $12. GM is in the mid $31 range.
Who will be better off, the investor who bought TSLA in 2023, up 146% YTD, the one who bought Ford, up 5.16% YTD or GM, down 6.72% YTD ?

 

[UncleDave]

Meh ... for the same reason Tesla is selling at 70 times earnings while its competition sells at 1/10 of that.
For the same reason Bitcoin sells at what it does.
Speculation, nothing more or less. Some get wealthy others lose a fortune or life savings.
Let's not forget Tesla has to go up 50 to 70% for some people to break even from when they bought and on the flip side some people made 100% by gambling back in January when it went up 100% this year.

Let's not forget, many investors in these types of stocks are not the big institutions. ITs a wild card, just depends on what side you are on. We could have had this same exact conversation when Tesla was $400 a share just two years ago but we didnt. Lives ruined for those who gamble in the stock market but we never hear of it.
We only hear of the successes not the fact that Tesla stock has been in the dumpster since.

Telsas competition doesn't have 50,000 charging spigots, and most that make EV's don't actually make money on them.

It's true some guys made a fortune on this stock others not a penny or lost money - just like every other stock.

They have not BK'd or required bailouts though, and dont lean on our government for loans to build new plants and are still the lesser evil from a loss /subsidy standpoint.

 

[demarpaint]

The shorts have been killed.

That's a bold statement. A lot of options traders made some nice coin buying puts and put spreads on it. Others have done well with calls and owning the stock, it all depends, just like anything else in the market.

 

[alarmguy]

When TSLA qualified to be part of the S&P 500 at the end of 2020 it also allowed that stock to be part of the mix that the big institutional investment firms offered in their IRA's and 401k's. So a great many Americans own TSLA shares whether they know it or not.

TSLA stock in the dumpster ? At this moment, it's around $265. Ford is a little over $12. GM is in the mid $31 range.
Who will be better off, the investor who bought TSLA in 2023, up 146% YTD, the one who bought Ford, up 5.16% YTD or GM, down 6.72% YTD ?

Tell me this in 3 years or two years as it's been on a downward spiral for that long. Not allowed to cherry pick time frame for stocks.
I can do that with bitcoin too you know?
The statement whether they know it or not has nothing to do with the facts;

BTW =
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/TSLA/institutional-ownership/

https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NYSE/GM/institutional-ownership/

 

[alarmguy]

That's a bold statement. A lot of options traders made some nice coin buying puts and put spreads on it. Others have done well with calls and owning the stock, it all depends, just like anything else in the market.

Tesla stock has been a dog since its high in 2021 and certainly does not justify 70 times earnings when the stock would have to go up 70% to hit its 2021 highs. Even more so for a company that only made money the last two years and suffering price competition right now, margins eroding AND the competition is only STARTING to produce the same exact vehicle they sell.
Musk should stick to rockets and bioscience where everyone in the world doesnt have the same product.

Its laughable to a degree that I cant not put into words, that after Tesla stock price got slammed into the gutter last year, wiping out fortunes of countless people that others talk up the stock because it rebounded a little more that halfway from what it lost. *LOL*