Tesla Stock

[UncleDave]

I'd say the guys doing ok considering everyone told him what he wanted to do was impossible and he was doomed to fail.

I dont personally like the guy, but thats a different story.

Is Tesla Elon Musk though -? There is a lot of back and forth on that.

 

[demarpaint]

Tesla stock has been a dog since its high in 2021 and certainly does not justify 70 times earnings when the stock would have to go up 70% to hit its 2021 highs. Even more so for a company that only made money the last two years and suffering price competition right now, margins eroding AND the competition is only STARTING to produce the same exact vehicle they sell.
Musk should stick to rockets and bioscience where everyone in the world doesnt have the same product.

Its laughable to a degree that I cant not put into words, that after Tesla stock price got slammed into the gutter last year, wiping out fortunes of countless people that others talk up the stock because it rebounded a little more that halfway from what it lost. *LOL*

I'm not a fan of Elon or Tesla, my only point was for someone to say the shorts got killed is a blanket statement. Some did, some didn't. Money can be made or lost being long or short. Every once in a while I look at threads like this, but would never invest or trade on info obtained on any message board.

 

[billt460]

A good read on Tesla, and it's many problems.

https://slate.com/technology/2023/01/elon-musk-tesla-stock-twitter-china.html

 

[alarmguy]

I'm not a fan of Elon or Tesla, my only point was for someone to say the shorts got killed is a blanket statement. Some did, some didn't. Money can be made or lost being long or short. Every once in a while I look at threads like this, but would never invest or trade on info obtained on any message board.

AGREE 100% many posts are so one sided. No one was saying the shorts got killed when Tesla got slammed from a high of $400 a share to $110 a share. .. it's so laughable and why I bring up Bitcoin. Currently that all Tesla is. A stock selling at 70 times earnings (down from close to 100 times earnings) in an industry that sells at 5 to 15 times earnings.

Not only that but losing market share by the bucket load, Profit margins getting squeezed in order to get cars sold. Its laughable. They need an ace up their sleeve in the worst way. I hope they have one. I can only suspect they become a low cost producer to survive, much like the Bic Lighter of a long time ago. A throw away car ... because that is the direction of current technology battery operated cars. They CERTAINLY have their place and usefulness but no way will in their current form ever come close to taking over the ICE powered vehicle. Too much of a hassle for many

 

[JeffKeryk]

That's a bold statement. A lot of options traders made some nice coin buying puts and put spreads on it. Others have done well with calls and owning the stock, it all depends, just like anything else in the market.

Tesla shorts 2023

In 2022, Tesla was the most profitable short trade in the U.S. market, earning $15.85 billion in paper profits for investors, according to S3 data. That was the best year ever for Tesla short sellers, but they have recouped only about a quarter of the $60 billion in estimated losses from 2010 to 2021.

5 year chart, your timing had better be really good to catch the trends shorting Tesla. Run a regression line and see what you get even with the peak 2 years ago.

 

[demarpaint]

Tesla shorts 2023

Well aware, some, not all though is my point.

 

[DwightFrye]

OK class, here's your assignment for the day:
Pretend you have $30,000 to invest. At the end of today's trading, pretend you bought $10,000 worth of shares each in TSLA, Ford and GM. Write down the number of shares you own.

At the close of trading in December of this year, pretend you sold all those shares. Multiply those number of shares X the closing price and see which stock gave you the best return.

For bonus points, take an old boot, fill it with concrete and hang it from a tree branch in your yard, At the last day of trading in 2025, pretend you still own that X number of shares of TSLA. You can swing that boot to kick yourself repeatedly for not hanging onto those shares.

 

[alarmguy]

OK class, here's your assignment for the day:
Pretend you have $30,000 to invest. At the end of today's trading, pretend you bought $10,000 worth of shares each in TSLA, Ford and GM. Write down the number of shares you own.

At the close of trading in December of this year, pretend you sold all those shares. Multiply those number of shares X the closing price and see which stock gave you the best return.

For bonus points, take an old boot, fill it with concrete and hang it from a tree branch in your yard, At the last day of trading in 2025, pretend you still own that X number of shares of TSLA. You can swing that boot to kick yourself repeatedly for not hanging onto those shares.

Dont have to write it down, just bookmark your post which has the date and time on it. Keeping in mind this is your short term and longer term trading criteria.

 

[alarmguy]

Todays News, Tesla Market Share slips to its lowest on record in the 3rd quarter.
One has to ask themselves what happens when the Legacy makers start churning out models in another year?
Dont think I am spelling gloom and doom for Tesla but I am maintaining my position that they need to do more than turn out compact (or near compact) vehicles and get into the SUV/Truck area that many Americans love. That is if these Americans in large numbers are even interested a large EV SUV
I dont want to hear about the grand technology that some portray in a Tesla, I am talking the USA, not just BITOG posters
Lets not ignore that fact that something similar MIGHT be taking place in other places of the world that Tesla is prominent, I haven't looked at that, just todays news.

Here are the source's of todays news, if interested one can do a search or if you're a customer of Barron's you can check it out.

 

[billt460]

Plus, Tesla models have looked the same for what, 5+ years now? Most automakers introduce another generation design change in that timespan. Is Tesla planning to? I haven't heard of any such likelihood. Same ol same ol.

 

[UncleDave]

Todays News, Tesla Market Share slips to its lowest on record in the 3rd quarter.
One has to ask themselves what happens when the Legacy makers start churning out models in another year?
Dont think I am spelling gloom and doom for Tesla but I am maintaining my position that they need to do more than turn out compact (or near compact) vehicles and get into the SUV/Truck area that many Americans love. That is if these Americans in large numbers are even interested a large EV SUV
I dont want to hear about the grand technology that some portray in a Tesla, I am talking the USA, not just BITOG posters
Lets not ignore that fact that something similar MIGHT be taking place in other places of the world that Tesla is prominent, I haven't looked at that, just todays news.

Here are the source's of todays news, if interested one can do a search or if you're a customer of Barron's you can check it out.
View attachment 183086

How are they doing vs their competition though?

YTD and Year on year?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereks...-amid-5-billion-strike-slump/?sh=a82f3ee76657

 

[JeffKeryk]

Plus, Tesla models have looked the same for what, 5+ years now? Most automakers introduce another generation design change in that timespan. Is Tesla planning to? I haven't heard of any such likelihood. Same ol same ol.

Well, the Model S debuted in mid 2012 and the Model 3 in late 2017, so yeah they've been out for awhile. Having said that, Tesla said from the beginning that they would not do frequent sheet metal changes, like traditional car companies. They do continuous improvements, like Henry Ford did with the Model T, which ran from 1908 thru 1927 I believe. Tesla stated, "Years don't count."

Different, I know. I am looking forward to the Model 3 Highland refresh, which should be out next year as Fremont is undergoing change over now.
I spotted this one on interstate 280 near Palo Alto.

 

[BHopkins]

Yeah, TSLA is up 146% YTD. Volatile? Sure. I ain't selling mine.
All the prognosticators have been dead wrong. The shorts have been killed.
The butt-ugly Cybertruck release (2M reservations?), Model 3 and Y refresh are in process and the Model 2 will be in production in a year or so at the new state-of-the-art Monterrey plant. India is next?

Remember Jeff, these dates are on Tesla/Musk time. While much of the recent Cybertruck news clips would suggest that it is close, Tesla is running out of time to make that most recent promise, end of 3Q deliveries. I keep thinking that Tesla constantly missing promise dates is just growing pains, and they will get better. But that hasn't happened yet. Tesla is now saying the Model 2 won't be released until 2026.

One thing Tesla does do well is start up new factories, so perhaps early 2025 will actually happen for Monterey. But again, I wouldn't be surprised if it is much later.

Well, the Model S debuted in mid 2012 and the Model 3 in late 2017, so yeah they've been out for awhile. Having said that, Tesla said from the beginning that they would not do frequent sheet metal changes, like traditional car companies. They do continuous improvements, like Henry Ford did with the Model T, which ran from 1908 thru 1927 I believe. Tesla stated, "Years don't count."

Different, I know. I am looking forward to the Model 3 Highland refresh, which should be out next year as Fremont is undergoing change over now.
I spotted this one on interstate 280 near Palo Alto.
View attachment 183150

From the pictures I have seen of the Highland, it looks like they have really made the Model 3 exterior look much nicer. A much needed refresh.

 

[JeffKeryk]

Remember Jeff, these dates are on Tesla/Musk time. While much of the recent Cybertruck news clips would suggest that it is close, Tesla is running out of time to make that most recent promise, end of 3Q deliveries. I keep thinking that Tesla constantly missing promise dates is just growing pains, and they will get better. But that hasn't happened yet. Tesla is now saying the Model 2 won't be released until 2026.

One thing Tesla does do well is start up new factories, so perhaps early 2025 will actually happen for Monterey. But again, I wouldn't be surprised if it is much later.



From the pictures I have seen of the Highland, it looks like they have really made the Model 3 exterior look much nicer. A much needed refresh.

All true. All Tesla dates are on Elon time. And he's an Alien, probably from Mars but who knows for sure?
The roller coaster ride continues...

 

[BHopkins]

Oops! I just noticed my error. 3Q is over. I meant to be thinking Tesla has to the end of 4Q to make the most recent promised Cybertruck deliveries.

All true. All Tesla dates are on Elon time. And he's an Alien, probably from Mars but who knows for sure?
The roller coaster ride continues...

Remember the book that came out in the early '90's, titled "Men are from Mars, women are from Venus"? I'm not sure where, but Elon is from somewhere else.

 

[JeffKeryk]

Oops! I just noticed my error. 3Q is over. I meant to be thinking Tesla has to the end of 4Q to make the most recent promised Cybertruck deliveries.


Remember the book that came out in the early '90's, titled "Men are from Mars, women are from Venus"? I'm not sure where, but Elon is from somewhere else.

He's wack.
But he can afford it, so there's that.

 

[alarmguy]

Interesting day coming up for Thursday as it was today too.
Interesting how the stock tanked before the earnings were released, than continued to tank after the close as earnings were released. Down close to 10% on the day.
Tesla net income down 37% from last year quarter.

https://finance.yahoo.com/m/43627956-6ef1-3483-ad39-15f8cab2ce48/tesla-earnings-slide-37-.html

Also, it’s solar business is in the dumpster, but it’s storage business is up and saving that aspect of the business.

 

[OVERKILL]

Interesting day coming up for Thursday as it was today too.
Interesting how the stock tanked before the earnings were released, than continued to tank after the close as earnings were released. Down close to 10% on the day.
Tesla net income down 37% from last year quarter.

https://finance.yahoo.com/m/43627956-6ef1-3483-ad39-15f8cab2ce48/tesla-earnings-slide-37-.html

Also, it’s solar business is in the dumpster, but it’s storage business is up and saving that aspect of the business.

Yes, despite the many fires.

 

[E365]

Cutting prices to maintain sales numbers isn’t a viable long-term plan.

 

[JeffKeryk]

Interesting day coming up for Thursday as it was today too.
Interesting how the stock tanked before the earnings were released, than continued to tank after the close as earnings were released. Down close to 10% on the day.
Tesla net income down 37% from last year quarter.

https://finance.yahoo.com/m/43627956-6ef1-3483-ad39-15f8cab2ce48/tesla-earnings-slide-37-.html

Also, it’s solar business is in the dumpster, but it’s storage business is up and saving that aspect of the business.

Tesla lowered prices, shut down factories for change over, quarterly revenue grew 9% YOY but down QQ, and they still earned 17.9% GM%.
GM and Ford lose billions on their EV business. Expect them to cut back on production.
GM and Ford are losing money on each unit they sell even with higher prices which is materially affecting their demand. Do they have a viable pathway to EV success?
Tesla continues to improve efficiently and profit per vehicle will grow as factory utilization improves.

The quarterly results for Tesla shareholders is "Disappointing." For GM and Ford (and VW) it is catastrophic.