Tesla Stock

Passport1 said:
Tesla stock is rebounding despite depressed sales. This paradox begs for an explanation. So here is mine. Musk made a surprise visit to China last spring. Perhaps it was to shore up his business dealings with the Chicoms and get them to buy more Model 3 Teslas. I think there was much more to his trip. Chinese EV makers are searching for a way to penetrate the US market. Tesla is going to provide that portal. Musk is going to take on BYD (maybe more) and sell them concurrently here with his cars. Many US manufacturers have done this before.

This will not be the first time an unknown and foreign auto maker has come to this country. In the mid 1960s a fellow named Max Hoffman began to import a relatively obscure car to the US market. That brand was BMW. Hoffman had been doing this with other European marques earlier. In 1970 I bought a brand new BMW 2002 in Chicago. I had to go through a Mercedes dealer to get it. They ordered it right from the factory in Bavaria. They also offered to source parts and service the car if I needed it. At the time I was working for VW so there was no need for dealership support as it actually didn't exist.

Here is my point. Chinese EVs are coming here and Musk is going to sell and service them. Insiders know this and the stock reflects that impending reality.
Click to expand...
First let me say, Tesla is a speculation stock but looking more like a gambling stock if they dont turn things around. However just because I feel this way is my method of investing. Its doesnt make me right but so far I am.

Tesla selling at high multiples and its stock price would have to go up roughly 70% or more to match its all time high. Thing is since then, their business model continues to decline. Profit margin, market share and sales still troubled. It still is not in the top ten automakers in the world and losing market share and profit margin YET speculation (and I am not saying right or wrong) places a value on the company many 100's% higher then the big guys. Furthermore off shore in China, competition is going through the roof. I suspect Elon's trip to China was simply because that is their major manufacturing plant. I mean, it's business.
If you firmly believed he might be possibly somehow thinking about how to get BYD in the USA, then why not buy BYD stock?

AS far as Tesla stock, in the last year it is down another 10% and this year down, as of right now its down 10% from just 3 months ago>
Im not saying good or bad. I am saying is a car company selling at well over 60 times its earnings and still sells hundreds percent more more than its successful proven peers. We all speculate, good luck on the Tesla, its kind of like owning a Canadian mining stock, some win big, others lose everything except if you are smart and allocate a small amount of your total to it.

THIS IS NOT A HIT PIECE ON TESLA, JSUT ANSWERING YOUR POST ON HOW YOU SEE IT AN I SEE IT.
(I am NOT an expert on this company!)
Tesla 3 month chart
Screenshot 2024-09-20 at 10.45.52 AM.webp


Bitcoin three month chart
Screenshot 2024-09-20 at 10.49.14 AM.webp


2023 USA sales
Screenshot 2024-09-20 at 10.38.33 AM.webp


Source for USA sales -
https://www.statista.com/statistics/264362/leading-car-brands-in-the-us-based-on-vehicle-sales/

Tesla #13 in the world
https://luxe.digital/lifestyle/garage/largest-car-companies/
 
@alarmguy, not saying your results are wrong, but your analysis lacks the debt calculation - of which TSLA has none but the other companies have much.

Its not exactly the right way to look at things, but if you take the market cap + total debt and calculate earnings off that, it at least gives you a comparator. When you buy the stock, your inherently owning your portion of the debt also.

GM for example would claim to have a P/E of 5 ish. But factor in debt, and its really closer to 18. Much less than TSLA, but do you really want to long term hold GM with P/E of 18? They pay virtually no dividend.

F is equally as bad on their P/E but at least pay a decent dividend. For how long they can afford the dividend is questionable, but if you had bought the F dip you would be getting 6% dividend on your money. Its closer to 5% now. Might be a suckers bet but its something

TM has a lot of debt also - with the debt P/E goes from 7 to 14, and they do pay a 2% dividend.

Personally I think they all suck and own none outside of an index. If I was forced to own at least one it would be a tough call honestly.
 
SC Maintenance said:
@alarmguy, not saying your results are wrong, but your analysis lacks the debt calculation - of which TSLA has none but the other companies have much.

Its not exactly the right way to look at things, but if you take the market cap + total debt and calculate earnings off that, it at least gives you a comparator. When you buy the stock, your inherently owning your portion of the debt also.

GM for example would claim to have a P/E of 5 ish. But factor in debt, and its really closer to 18. Much less than TSLA, but do you really want to long term hold GM with P/E of 18? They pay virtually no dividend.

F is equally as bad on their P/E but at least pay a decent dividend. For how long they can afford the dividend is questionable, but if you had bought the F dip you would be getting 6% dividend on your money. Its closer to 5% now. Might be a suckers bet but its something

TM has a lot of debt also - with the debt P/E goes from 7 to 14, and they do pay a 2% dividend.

Personally I think they all suck and own none outside of an index. If I was forced to own at least one it would be a tough call honestly.
Click to expand...
I dont disagree with you NOT at all, I do know GM debt thing, as you know I only trade the stock, I dont hold but I look at sales as well, forward looking statements from the CEO. Just compare Musk's latest earnings call compared to Mary Barra. Mary is like, they are knocking business out of the ball park and musk is making excuses AND warning things are rough right now.

So even taking GM (which I commend you for an excellent analysis) at a PE of 18 that still isnt bad from a company with positive guidence. Where Tesla is selling at a multiple of over 300% more then GM, and has zero track record for earnings but yes, tons of cash.

Anyway, just to be clear I call GM the company that is like Charlie Brown, Lucy is always holding the football and promising to not take it away before Charlie Brown kicks it and lands on his back. That is GM to me to just pick up some money in trades. It's relatively stable for the last 50 years *LOL* It goes NO WHERE but always comes back. So for me a safe bet short term, like monthly or bi-monthly trades.
Tesla unproven track record with one product that everyone already has as far as gas automobiles and the electric just started rolling off the assembly lines and entering the market place. I mean I could have been trading and owning Tesla since it was almost 400 a share. ITs jsut not matured enough to know where the company is going for me.

BTW for me, and my mind can change at any time, as far as a Tech Stock, I am loving META and its prospects. I mean who has billions of people using their system like META. I have a lot of faith I might be right but I dont like being in anything (with this Roth account) long term except my WMT. Yet I am wondering to myself if I might hold META long term. I love the company (not necessarily the CEO) META reaches over 3 billion people and I have noticed the changes in lets say Facebook to engage the user. I hope I am right... Im up 10% as of today 3 months after I bought it, but the stock does will swings and I never know day to day if I will hold something or sell. If I sold it would only be to buy back at a lower price like I do GM
 
Last edited:
Up $25 or 12% in the aftermarket. Strong margins; better than expected.
52 week low/high $138 / $271. The roller coaster continues...

Nice rise to help with a rough month.

Wonder how long it will take Elon to botch up the good news? Asking for a friend who has stock...
 
Last edited:
SC Maintenance said:
No love for Tesla earnings this go around?

Big beat on earnings estimate, a little short on revenue - still touting more affordable vehicles in first half of 2025.

Stock is way up after hours.
Click to expand...
Well, with some luck it will get back to the 260's where it was just 4 weeks ago. In the past year it's missed out on one of the biggest (?) stock market moves in history and is relatively unchanged.

Tough company to gauge, selling at an incredible multiple even though that is down big time over the last 2 years. Much of its profit came from carbon credits, energy storage. Car sales not exactly knocking down the doors. New competition heating up, China cars sales looking sketchy. So pretty much to me, Wall Street profit calculations were wrong but in the automotive part of their business it's not so rosy except for speculation at this point. They managed to squeeze out 2% higher margins from the auto business. Granted they are offering an upbeat forward looking statement. So who knows?
Not enough information coming out on where the profits came from and always a lot of smoke from Tesla until the earning report is deciphered.

Stock still has to go up over 60% to match its highs from years ago.
With that said, who knows, no secret in here I liken the stock to bit-coin at these multiples. Stock price is built on promises and speculation. Not for me but Im a fool who dumped my bitcoin at a 40% or so gain years back when it hit $11,000 a coin *LOL*

It is a fun stock to watch and I have my share of stocks I watch go up and up and up or others I sold at a nice profit, continue to go up and up and up ... oh well.;)
 
Last edited:
JeffKeryk said:
What is wrong with the other car companies?
View attachment 246793
Click to expand...
Nothing? They didnt come out with their earnings last night, I am sure you were aware?
But I can ask the same and choose any date, such as a year ago. Tesla up 15% in the last year (because of the start of today) vs GM up 87% in the last year. Good for them both, Ive been saying it all year. The US economy is cranking away. Life has never been more easy in the USA!
Gosh, even the USPS is begging people to come working for them. Open positions all over. At one time, you had to know someone on the inside. Now step right up and get to work.!

Screenshot 2024-10-24 at 10.44.19 AM.webp
Screenshot 2024-10-24 at 10.44.31 AM.webp
 
Last edited:
Tesla is good a stock and in many S&P 500 accounts. I had some single stocks however my gut couldn't take the major fluctuations in price due to tweets and news. Trump and Elon Musk are going to make it happen in a good way and that's all I got to say about that.
 
Tesla is a spec stock based on potential in the eyes of its investors. Currently as a company it’s not close to performing as needed to sustain the price

If it goes up another 25% it will get back to a price it has years ago and people who invested then will break even if they held out

Old stable WMT preformed better over the time period and META blew away TSLA
In regards to another post over a one year period

I suspect the new White House will further help the company out. It’s a fine line ignoring the voters to favor a company though, I would expect all US automobile companies to benefit if that happened
(No politics)
 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

StevieC
  • Locked
Musk & SEC / Tesla Shares Skid / Disappointing deliveries
2
Replies
20
Views
3K
pandus13
H
  • Locked
Christian von Koenigsegg's opinion about Tesla
Replies
8
Views
5K
Shannow
N
  • Locked
Tesla missed delivery goals for Q2 - a pattern
Replies
11
Views
2K
Bladecutter
dave1251
  • Locked
Exxon Mobil
Replies
19
Views
16K
MolaKule
M
  • Locked
Toyota and Tesla Motors team to make electric cars
Replies
17
Views
5K
Kiwi_ME
Back
Top Bottom