TSLA is a highly volatile investment. The roller coaster continues.
Tesla Stock
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Productive as defined by annual number of vehicles produced.
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Yes, that is what I said. But its a irrelevant stat. If I have 2 factories that produce the same number of cars at a lower cost and in less time, than a single factory can, would you rather have the one big plant or 2 smaller plants? 1 plant, 20 plants - its about unit cost, input costs, cycle efficiency, etc.
ie their "productivity" number is marketing. Even if it wasn't - it was one year, then the next year their plant in Shanghai passed it, by there own stat.
What matters is total cost to build one car, and how long it takes to build it.
Certainly. And Tesla leads in those categories.
Bigger centralized plants have advantages over smaller, distributed plants. Procurement, automation, headcount and management.
Tesla's margins are the envy of the industry. We are talking Porsche territory. From Barron's:
"Automotive gross profit margins, excluding regulatory credit sales, rose to 17.1%, up from 16.3% in the third quarter and better than the 16.7% Wall Street had been expecting. It also ended four-quarter streak of declining margins."
The Tesla business model has other advantages: at scale they make the 3 and the Y which are very similar. Unlike other makes, there are very few options and/or option groups. This greatly simplifies procurement and manufacturing as a whole. Far less mistakes. Having said this, Tesla has a problem if they do not offer what buyers want.
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And now your changing the topic again, so OK. We shall see if they can maintain there margins with their falling vehicle prices - which is driving there stock down currently
Freemont is a huge plant. Yes, there are economies of scale if you can keep it full. GM could never keep it full so they lost their shirt - its fixed costs are high. Toyota under Numi got close building the early Taco and Corolla there, I think they built South of 400K units in some years and that was back in the day when things were far less automated. They were more than happy to exit Freemont in 2010 but that may have been for reasons beyond the plant itself.
Being able to make the most cars doesn't mean your efficient. Maybe they are, maybe they are not. If its so efficient, why is Tesla building a factory in Mexico?
I did not mean to change the subject; I was referring to your good point of speed and profitability in #503.
Yes, GM failed. NUMMI was going great guns for years; first was the "Nova"; a neat little small car that was mostly Toyota. They cranked out Geo Prisims and Corollas like hotcakes. Tacomas too, as you say. They were building a Tundra line when they shuttered.
I think NUMMI had about 6,800 workers at its peak, about 4,000 were laid off at the end. Today Tesla Fremont employs over 20,000 workers and is always hiring. I have mentioned Musk took out full page ads in the SJ Mercury-News encouraging ex-NUMMI line workers to apply; it was well known Toyota had trained them well. Tesla has maxed out the plant area but continues to gobble up adjoining buildings and land. They even took over the Solyndra buildings.
Interesting, I have owned 3 vehicles built at the Fremont plant: '65 4-4-2 (I have the build sheet), '93 Toyota strippie 4WD PU (over 400K on the clock as I understand) and the '18 Model 3.
Ford produced millions of Mustangs at the Milpitas plant, now "The Great Mall".
That's because the enemies of 'free speech' are into 'cancel culture'.....just look what they do to anybody who 'goes off the reservation'.
I personally, and many other have big issues buying any product associated with guy who each days spends spreading neo nazi propaganda, talking about great replacement theory, etc, etc. His average days of messaging are goulash between hard-core white nationalism and occasional, what looks like, stroke-driven short messages.
Take that into consideration when you talk about that profit coming, as that genius you are talking about bought company worth, at best, $22bln, for $44bln, and now it is valued at best $7bln.
The core problem is that Elon was always a narcissist, but he spent too much time on Twitter. The feed algorithm, even before he bought it, has ruined his brain and turned him into the world's richest 4chan poster. I refuse to engage on social media and YouTube as much as possible because if you dare watch or click a few politicized articles or videos you get inundated with a flood of more and more extreme content depending on what you clicked. It is radicalizing people in both directions. It's all clickbait and social outrage porn.
"Don't sell half if it doubles, don't put in a stop loss or sell when it loses half of it's value. Just hold on, and if your FA is right you will be rich in 20 years or so."
If that is the case, sell all if it doubles. Then enjoy the money.
I have to fallow that stuff bcs. work. But he will tank all his businesses with his behavior.
Where are you seeing what Musk talks about each day?
Im more frustrated that I bought bitcoin at $7000 and sold at $11,000 because I got nervous many years ago... Still have bits and pieces but nothing to write home about unfortunately. Today's price $66,390.00 this morning but fluctuates wildly as what happens with speculation. Nothing wrong with speculating as in Tesla but you take chances if you buy high.
So you can say buying an auto stock at 300 to 400% higher P/E than it peers you may lament ... but those that didnt buy at 600 to 800% more than its peers just two years back do not feel the same. People who bought two years ago lost half their money. So how can you make that statement is beyond me. People who buy today could lose half their money in two years too, if the stock behaves like the rest of the industry. It's quite clear Tesla is more of a trading play now and the financial media is turning sour on the stock.
Telsa has failed to live up to ANY of its predictions of the last year, maybe two. Are investors ignoring the fact that its CEO said they need 50% growth to stay and yet they are pulling in half that or less, slashing margins around the world to stay alive. Last month their CEO has actually warned Tesla investors about the tough year coming up. Can we not see the warning signs that maybe the USA consumer is not sold on EVs as a primary car? .. and the China syndrome of BYD overtaking Tesla. These are warning signs for the non speculative investor to stay away on a stock, in an industry that is nothing new, with its peers selling at much lower stock prices.... BUT as a speculator, as in bitcoin, many people who knew when to buy and sell did very well and will continue. SO place your bets!
You are making a prediction (which is fine) just like bitcoin. It may be a great stock to speculate in but any stock is speculation when its peers sell at less than half to 1/4 the price for the same product. It's just a car. The CEO just recently told the board that unless they agree to his demands, he may develop technology outside of Tesla in his own companies.
With all the above said, Im not saying Tesla or any company is a bad bet, just be sure you understand you are playing a bet, just like a sports bet, one team will win in the long run. Maybe it will be Tesla, it all depends how much time you have. If you paid $300 or more, you may have a long wait and not everyone is a spring chicken in an aging country.
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Maybe he's upset about the numerous murders of white farmers in his birth country, South Africa, which is barely reported by our mainstream media.
Alarmguy, once again you missed the point about TSLA's projected/possible stock value being based upon more than just its EV sales. The topic of this particular thread is TESLA STOCK. Not TSLA's valuation based solely upon its EV sales numbers.
I'm gambling that the value of TSLA will be buoyed by their revenue from several other divisions besides EV production and sales.
Now just exactly when we see a valuation of $400, $600, $1000 or ??? I won't speculate. Lots of economic events can come into play and affect that, just like we have seen in the last 5 years or so.
Here's something to think about: EV sales currently are slowing down. What do you think will happen if the bad actors in the world succeed in shutting the Straits of Hormuz and blowing up some refineries and pipelines ? And otherwise manipulating supply and the price per barrel of crude oil ? And gas goes to $8 or more a gallon and we see shortages ? Well, people that own EV's will be in the catbird seat and demand for EV's will once again spike. Guess which EV maker will come out on top ?
I'm gambling that the value of TSLA will be buoyed by their revenue from several other divisions besides EV production and sales.
Now just exactly when we see a valuation of $400, $600, $1000 or ??? I won't speculate. Lots of economic events can come into play and affect that, just like we have seen in the last 5 years or so.
Here's something to think about: EV sales currently are slowing down. What do you think will happen if the bad actors in the world succeed in shutting the Straits of Hormuz and blowing up some refineries and pipelines ? And otherwise manipulating supply and the price per barrel of crude oil ? And gas goes to $8 or more a gallon and we see shortages ? Well, people that own EV's will be in the catbird seat and demand for EV's will once again spike. Guess which EV maker will come out on top ?
Except that's not how oil prices work. Oil is sold on the world market. There is plenty of production now; the US pumps far more now than ever before.
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There is no value other than what someone places on it. Meaning Tesla is not performing the numbers in its industry to justify its stock price.
The rest of your statement is speculation about its future. The speculation of oil supply shortages, speculation of other things Tesla may do. I mentioned this is ok for those who wish to speculate but they are not currently performing in this area. IN fact their solar business went into the toilet. I even mentioned the CEO is threatening to develop products elsewhere if he is not given the voting rights he demands.
Nothing wrong with speculation as long as those know that right now, all they have for income are cars being subsidized by the US government (that could end anytime) and China sales which are facing head on competition and performance nowhere near what the CEO said the company needs some time back.
I call this speculation that they will pull it off, if they dont, you have a stock that is currently down 50% form its high and could go down another 50%. If they pull off everything then maybe they will succeed. One error you have is, the company was darn close to $400 already two years ago and never recovered. Other than that, the last two years have been a train wreck.
Do you think Musk's aggressive China strategy poses a risk for Tesla or it's an opportunity?
China is a very lucrative market. However companies like VW who leaned heavily on the China market are now getting decimated now by Chinese domestic companies.
Do you think Tesla can do better and produce long term Chinese market profits?
Musk has said that Taiwan is a part of China the same way Hawaii is a part of the US, and called for the establishment of a self-autonomus zone in Taiwan (presumably the same kind of self-autonomus zone as Xinjiang, Tibet and Hong Kong). He also privately met with the Chinese foreign minister. Do you think he has enough support to dominate the Chinese market?
If Tesla is successful there it can really boost the stock value.
China is a very lucrative market. However companies like VW who leaned heavily on the China market are now getting decimated now by Chinese domestic companies.
Do you think Tesla can do better and produce long term Chinese market profits?
Musk has said that Taiwan is a part of China the same way Hawaii is a part of the US, and called for the establishment of a self-autonomus zone in Taiwan (presumably the same kind of self-autonomus zone as Xinjiang, Tibet and Hong Kong). He also privately met with the Chinese foreign minister. Do you think he has enough support to dominate the Chinese market?
If Tesla is successful there it can really boost the stock value.
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