Tesla Stock

[alarmguy]

@DwightFrye

I have to tell you. I used to and maybe still like Musk but he is making it hard. All credibility in my eyes has been shot down with wild statements, law suits, like a never ending scene, much like certain political personalities. Elon is losing (or lost) credabilty on Wall Street as well and I honestly believe the stock has really come down to day traders for the most part. Even his comments about Tesla new products lack credibility.

So then, just today, I read this. How much more "in your face" proof does one need as to his character?
The other part of me wants to keep my feelings in check as far as his conservative way of keeping things in the media "in check" but he is making it hard to trust anything he says. Im wondering if he is going "off the rails" mentally.

As an example, today's news.
"OpenAI publishes Elon Musk’s emails. ‘We’re sad that it’s come to this’"

https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/06/tech/openai-elon-musk-emails/index.html

 

[alarmguy]

Do you think Musk's aggressive China strategy poses a risk for Tesla or it's an opportunity?

China is a very lucrative market. However companies like VW who leaned heavily on the China market are now getting decimated now by Chinese domestic companies.

Do you think Tesla can do better and produce long term Chinese market profits?

Musk has said that Taiwan is a part of China the same way Hawaii is a part of the US, and called for the establishment of a self-autonomus zone in Taiwan (presumably the same kind of self-autonomus zone as Xinjiang, Tibet and Hong Kong). He also privately met with the Chinese foreign minister. Do you think he has enough support to dominate the Chinese market?

If Tesla is successful there it can really boost the stock value.

I think the problem is, Tesla is so dependent on China that any problems in relationship with our country might scare investors. Just recently, let's forget Taiwan for a minute. What about the issues the Philippines are currently having?
We are in a love hate relationship with China, anything can happen but at the current time Chinese EV makers are taking market share away form Tesla and I do not see the government their coming to the aid of an American company over their "own"

This is an overall view but just yesterday a Chinese warship antagonized Philippine vessels.

I mean, this is a powderkeg
https://www.philstar.com/headlines/...-derail-philippine-maritime-zones-act-senator

 

[edyvw]

Maybe he's upset about the numerous murders of white farmers in his birth country, South Africa, which is barely reported by our mainstream media.

Yeah, it’s not that.
However, South Africa is very violent society, but good to know what you see.

 

[SC Maintenance]

Here's something to think about: EV sales currently are slowing down. What do you think will happen if the bad actors in the world succeed in shutting the Straits of Hormuz and blowing up some refineries and pipelines ? And otherwise manipulating supply and the price per barrel of crude oil ? And gas goes to $8 or more a gallon and we see shortages ? Well, people that own EV's will be in the catbird seat and demand for EV's will once again spike. Guess which EV maker will come out on top ?

Thats not how the oil markets work.

You actually have a bigger risk from oil going too low. Right now oil is in a sweet spot. Saudi's are holding back 1B barrels per day to retain this price otherwise it would be much lower. The issue is - in the USA natural gas is essentially free - its a byproduct of shale oil production - so its real cost is about transport. 40% of USA electricity is produced by nat gas.

So if oil goes below $60 per barrel, which it would if Saudi let fly (which they did in 2011, and 2017) then US shale production starts slowly shutting in and your free nat gas starts going way up. Yes, we can drill nat gas wells (or re-zone some oil wells) but this still skyrockets the cost, so electricity cost skyrockets. All these commodities - nat gas, oil, electricity - are priced at the margins.

Now if the straits do get shut in, the ships sail around Africa. Adds about 20 days to the trip, and $20 to the cost. And the Saudis ramp production to offset and were back where we started.

Third option - with the stroke of a pen the President can ban US oil exports. There were no exports for like 20 years, the law is on the books. With no oil exports, US oil goes back to $80. Maybe $100 at most. The rest of the world has a problem, but we don't.

So oil can only go up for a short period - its self fulfilling. Priced at the margin. Price goes too high, production booms, price drops. Price Drops, production closes, price increases. Its range bound.

 

[alarmguy]

Latest news today, not that I’m big on the media, but one of Tesla’s biggest Wall Street advocates has downgraded expectations again.
“Tesla Stock Drops After Morgan Stanley Bull Slashes Estimates, Price Target”
Tesla “going in reverse”

Tesla Is No Longer One of the Top 10 Most Valuable S&P 500 Companies — Barron's

Follow Barron's in Apple News

stocks.apple.com

Here’s another source if Apple news doesn’t work for you

MSN

 

[OVERKILL]

I think the problem is, Tesla is so dependent on China that any problems in relationship with our country might scare investors. Just recently, let's forget Taiwan for a minute. What about the issues the Philippines are currently having?
We are in a love hate relationship with China, anything can happen but at the current time Chinese EV makers are taking market share away form Tesla and I do not see the government their coming to the aid of an American company over their "own"

This is an overall view but just yesterday a Chinese warship antagonized Philippine vessels.

I mean, this is a powderkeg
https://www.philstar.com/headlines/...-derail-philippine-maritime-zones-act-senator

China's strategy has been brilliant and the West has just walked right into it with all the awareness of a lemming. Westinghouse, EDF, AECL, they all partnered with China to build nuclear plants there. China then "borrowed" the IP and came up with their "indigenous" Hualong One reactor design that they are going gangbusters on. Arguably more sinister (because it's China) but not all that different from AECL's partnership with India, which was broken by their use of the CIRRUS research reactor to produce weapons-grade plutonium, leaving them with only a Douglas Point style 220MWe CANDU that they built an entire CANDU-derived reactor family off of, completely separate from Canada.

For decades China has lured Western investment with the promise of cheap labour in order to shamelessly, and without recourse, pirate IP. From nuclear reactors to Cisco network gear, from hand tools and tires to performance parts, the West's boundless greed and desire to bolster the bottom line blinded them to this obvious scheme whose benefits to China are immeasurable. They own the solar game, they are well on their way to owning the wind turbine game, in many ways this has the hallmarks of what should lead to Cold War style protectionism and yet.... We've got rudderless politicians and companies far more concerned about their bottom line than anything silly like national security.

 

[SC Maintenance]

China's strategy has been brilliant and the West has just walked right into it with all the awareness of a lemming.

Everything you said after this is correct, but this is not. Those who walked into it absolutely knew what they were doing, and did not care. It made them personally wealthy, and that was all that mattered. I worked for a Fortune 500 company when China got favored Nation Status, and management knew exactly what they were doing moving stuff there.- without a doubt.

 

[JeffKeryk]

"If GE's strategy of investment in China is wrong, it represents a loss of a billion dollars, perhaps a couple of billion dollars. If it is right, it is the future of this company for the next century."

Jack Welch

 

[pbm]

We've got rudderless politicians and companies far more concerned about their bottom line than anything silly like national security.

Well said.....and don't forget the CORRUPT ones. Sadly, our mainstream media has lost it's way journalism wise and are so partisan that they are, IMO, the real 'greatest threat to our democracy'.

PS: Hollywood is also shilling for communist China now.

 

[GON]

Yeah, yesterday was one of those days that I looked at the stock value and uttered a few four and twelve letter words. But I've done that before and then seen it recover within a few days. Sure it still isn't worth what it was in 2021.

But what you Tesla and Elon haters seem to consistently have your blinders on about is that Tesla, unlike any other automaker, is poised to start receiving very large revenue streams from their other business units. When that does start happening in the next couple of years you will see TSLA going up in a way that is only partially related to their vehicle sales.

Maybe some of you will look back and lament that you didn't buy in when it was $187 per share.

Watched a video today from one of the "Shark Tank" members, who stated his son is an electrical engineer and did an internship at TSLA.

His Son stated what I also conclude, TSLA is not in the vehicle business. The TSLA intern stated all the data TSLA is collecting from each of its vehicles for every single inch they drive is future gold in numerous ways. My assessment is TSLA is in the reoccurring revenue business, and the vehicles TSLA make is just a promoter of what TSLA is really doing.

 

[edyvw]

Thats not how the oil markets work.

You actually have a bigger risk from oil going too low. Right now oil is in a sweet spot. Saudi's are holding back 1B barrels per day to retain this price otherwise it would be much lower. The issue is - in the USA natural gas is essentially free - its a byproduct of shale oil production - so its real cost is about transport. 40% of USA electricity is produced by nat gas.

So if oil goes below $60 per barrel, which it would if Saudi let fly (which they did in 2011, and 2017) then US shale production starts slowly shutting in and your free nat gas starts going way up. Yes, we can drill nat gas wells (or re-zone some oil wells) but this still skyrockets the cost, so electricity cost skyrockets. All these commodities - nat gas, oil, electricity - are priced at the margins.

Now if the straits do get shut in, the ships sail around Africa. Adds about 20 days to the trip, and $20 to the cost. And the Saudis ramp production to offset and were back where we started.

Third option - with the stroke of a pen the President can ban US oil exports. There were no exports for like 20 years, the law is on the books. With no oil exports, US oil goes back to $80. Maybe $100 at most. The rest of the world has a problem, but we don't.

So oil can only go up for a short period - its self fulfilling. Priced at the margin. Price goes too high, production booms, price drops. Price Drops, production closes, price increases. Its range bound.

Currently Houthi issue adds around $1.80-2 per barrel.
One has to take into consideration that closing Strait of Hormuz exerts economic pain on those that did it. It is two way street.

 

[edyvw]

China's strategy has been brilliant and the West has just walked right into it with all the awareness of a lemming. Westinghouse, EDF, AECL, they all partnered with China to build nuclear plants there. China then "borrowed" the IP and came up with their "indigenous" Hualong One reactor design that they are going gangbusters on. Arguably more sinister (because it's China) but not all that different from AECL's partnership with India, which was broken by their use of the CIRRUS research reactor to produce weapons-grade plutonium, leaving them with only a Douglas Point style 220MWe CANDU that they built an entire CANDU-derived reactor family off of, completely separate from Canada.

For decades China has lured Western investment with the promise of cheap labour in order to shamelessly, and without recourse, pirate IP. From nuclear reactors to Cisco network gear, from hand tools and tires to performance parts, the West's boundless greed and desire to bolster the bottom line blinded them to this obvious scheme whose benefits to China are immeasurable. They own the solar game, they are well on their way to owning the wind turbine game, in many ways this has the hallmarks of what should lead to Cold War style protectionism and yet.... We've got rudderless politicians and companies far more concerned about their bottom line than anything silly like national security.

However, you tied them into world economy. Higher standard in China means less options for CCP to do something dumb.
Also, copying is not innovation. Current economic issues in China are showing that CCP will have serious issues, as any authoritarian regime, with innovation. They can copy a lot of stuff, but so did Russians with their space program. Once they had move on their own, the regime had issue with it.

 

[camrydriver111]

That's because the enemies of 'free speech' are into 'cancel culture'.....just look what they do to anybody who 'goes off the reservation'.

Musk is not the free speech absolutist he claims to be.

He banned Kanye West for "inciting violence". ye didn't incite violence, ye said he loves everyone, which is a message of positivity.

Who decides something is inciting violence anyways? It's a slippery slope.

I think Elon caved into corporate woke America and his globalist overlords.

 

[OVERKILL]

Everything you said after this is correct, but this is not. Those who walked into it absolutely knew what they were doing, and did not care. It made them personally wealthy, and that was all that mattered. I worked for a Fortune 500 company when China got favored Nation Status, and management knew exactly what they were doing moving stuff there.- without a doubt.

Probably depends on the company, AECL is a Federal organization comprised primarily of scientists, I think they were oblivious to China's intentions. Of course many of the CEO's and boards that made these decisions were aware and did it anyway, but I think a large portion of them were like AECL, seeing it as an opportunity to enter a growing market, blissfully unaware that they (China) were banking on these partnerships to pirate IP and grow their domestic industry.

 

[SC Maintenance]

Probably depends on the company, AECL is a Federal organization comprised primarily of scientists, I think they were oblivious to China's intentions. Of course many of the CEO's and boards that made these decisions were aware and did it anyway, but I think a large portion of them were like AECL, seeing it as an opportunity to enter a growing market, blissfully unaware that they (China) were banking on these partnerships to pirate IP and grow their domestic industry.

Possibly, but I seriously doubt the AECL made such policy decisions on their own, and took it on their own volition to head on over and spill their IP guts to the CCP. That decision was made by someone else.

 

[camrydriver111]

I believe the Canadian government also has the power to veto these deals like they vetoed the sale of AECON to a Chinese SOE. It is not a single person or entity deciding.

However, at that time they probably still believed in the end of history. That capitalism naturally leads to democracy, and that democratic capitalism is an inevitability.

Even as late as 2016/2017, due to the change in American foreign policy, there were people arguing Canada should partner more closely with China because of US isolationism and protectionism, we cannot depend on the US anymore. Canada was even in early discussions of a free trade deal with China.

 

[OVERKILL]

Possibly, but I seriously doubt the AECL made such policy decisions on their own, and took it on their own volition to head on over and spill their IP guts to the CCP. That decision was made by someone else.

AECL saw an opportunity to sell two reactors and with the domestic market being non-existent in the late 90's, I think they, along with Westinghouse and EDF were all pretty desperate to build something ANYWHERE.

 

[alarmguy]

Tesla fell out of the top ten for market cap for the first time in over a year, though as we know with such volatility that can change in an hour. I mean, look at where we are with a P/E of 41 compared to close to 100 in the last two years. I think the mentality of any company that produces EVs is instant success is fading.
One must not discount the fact that can also beat up the EV market (USA only) is a roll back of EPA restrictions on gasoline cars with a change of administration. It's actually a campaign pledge by the contender. (NO politics) These are considerations that may temper the EV maker until an outcome is known. AS the EPA was using its power as a way to force change into EVs, removal of their policy by an administration change (as promised) can affect the stock price.

"**Tesla** dropped out of the top 10 biggest U.S. companies by market capitalization yesterday."
Source https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/st...cap-top-10-Yw4RH6d6mp1rt0eZO0QK?siteid=yhoof2

 

[SC Maintenance]

Currently Houthi issue adds around $1.80-2 per barrel.

How do you know?

The price of crude has varied between 78.00 and 80.58 in the last 5 trading days. So 3.5% - or double your amount above - on no news? I find it hard someone can attribute an actual number to the Houthi's. What statistical methodology did they use?

Crude jumped when the Ukraine war started, then coated back down. Same with Gaza War. Will be the same on Memorial Day. Will be the same next hurricane that rolls into the Gulf.

Oil price is about supply and demand and cost to produce it. Houthi or Gaza or Hurricane's are noise in anything other than the short term.

 

[edyvw]

How do you know?

The price of crude has varied between 78.00 and 80.58 in the last 5 trading days. So 3.5% - or double your amount above - on no news? I find it hard someone can attribute an actual number to the Houthi's. What statistical methodology did they use?

Crude jumped when the Ukraine war started, then coated back down. Same with Gaza War. Will be the same on Memorial Day. Will be the same next hurricane that rolls into the Gulf.

Oil price is about supply and demand and cost to produce it. Houthi or Gaza or Hurricane's are noise in anything other than the short term.

I cannot remember, but I think it was WSJ. I really do not know what methodology they used, but I would say it is the same one that everyone uses when they estimate the impacts of human activity that might dirupts supply. What is the margin of error there, I do not know. Yes, oil is cyclical, various factors, but this is what they came out for this particular problem.