Ah, the Quantum.
Stock market!!!!
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Originally Posted by Y_K
. And it is not a virus, of course, that has done the damage. It is Mass Manias, as always. Psychology rules. I wonder how Rentech is doing right now...
Goodness...where do people get this stuff? Supply chains are decimated, and there's an economic showdown coming that's going to last for several months, best case. And yes, the virus is a direct cause. Reality is not "mania". Keep your head in the sand at your own peril
. And it is not a virus, of course, that has done the damage. It is Mass Manias, as always. Psychology rules. I wonder how Rentech is doing right now...
Goodness...where do people get this stuff? Supply chains are decimated, and there's an economic showdown coming that's going to last for several months, best case. And yes, the virus is a direct cause. Reality is not "mania". Keep your head in the sand at your own peril
Originally Posted by JOD
Originally Posted by Y_K
. And it is not a virus, of course, that has done the damage. It is Mass Manias, as always. Psychology rules. I wonder how Rentech is doing right now...
Goodness...where do people get this stuff? Supply chains are decimated, and there's an economic showdown coming that's going to last for several months, best case. And yes, the virus is a direct cause. Reality is not "mania". Keep your head in the sand at your own peril
Yep, just think how the economy would be if everyone had to stay in quarantine, and 25% of world population died off - that's an extreme scenario to make the point. I don't think there would be much of an economy in a case like that. If people can't get out to make money in order to spend money, then the economy declines and at some point collapses. Not too hard to grasp.
Originally Posted by Y_K
. And it is not a virus, of course, that has done the damage. It is Mass Manias, as always. Psychology rules. I wonder how Rentech is doing right now...
Goodness...where do people get this stuff? Supply chains are decimated, and there's an economic showdown coming that's going to last for several months, best case. And yes, the virus is a direct cause. Reality is not "mania". Keep your head in the sand at your own peril
Yep, just think how the economy would be if everyone had to stay in quarantine, and 25% of world population died off - that's an extreme scenario to make the point. I don't think there would be much of an economy in a case like that. If people can't get out to make money in order to spend money, then the economy declines and at some point collapses. Not too hard to grasp.
Originally Posted by JOD
Originally Posted by Y_K
. And it is not a virus, of course, that has done the damage. It is Mass Manias, as always. Psychology rules. I wonder how Rentech is doing right now...
Goodness...where do people get this stuff? Supply chains are decimated, and there's an economic showdown coming that's going to last for several months, best case. And yes, the virus is a direct cause. Reality is not "mania". Keep your head in the sand at your own peril
This slowdown will definitely hurt us one way or another.
Originally Posted by Y_K
. And it is not a virus, of course, that has done the damage. It is Mass Manias, as always. Psychology rules. I wonder how Rentech is doing right now...
Goodness...where do people get this stuff? Supply chains are decimated, and there's an economic showdown coming that's going to last for several months, best case. And yes, the virus is a direct cause. Reality is not "mania". Keep your head in the sand at your own peril
This slowdown will definitely hurt us one way or another.
Not sure what I'm going to do--got at least 20 years before retirement--so I'm not rebalancing my portfolio. I am tempted to cut back on my contribution to the min required to get company match, just to be sitting on more cash in my bank account, "just in case". Then again, if it does go sideways, company match is one of the first things to get cut so
Originally Posted by supton
Not sure what I'm going to do--got at least 20 years before retirement--so I'm not rebalancing my portfolio. I am tempted to cut back on my contribution to the min required to get company match, just to be sitting on more cash in my bank account, "just in case". Then again, if it does go sideways, company match is one of the first things to get cut so
My advice: shift your contributions in your 401(k) to cash if you're worried. Continue to max out your 401(k). This, too, shall pass.
A lot can, and frankly will, happen in 20 years.
In 2008, when everyone was fearful and the news was covering the bear market, it was most certainly the time to buy. Headlines right now are reminiscent of that summer.
When I was able to get some great stocks on sale...
Not sure what I'm going to do--got at least 20 years before retirement--so I'm not rebalancing my portfolio. I am tempted to cut back on my contribution to the min required to get company match, just to be sitting on more cash in my bank account, "just in case". Then again, if it does go sideways, company match is one of the first things to get cut so
My advice: shift your contributions in your 401(k) to cash if you're worried. Continue to max out your 401(k). This, too, shall pass.
A lot can, and frankly will, happen in 20 years.
In 2008, when everyone was fearful and the news was covering the bear market, it was most certainly the time to buy. Headlines right now are reminiscent of that summer.
When I was able to get some great stocks on sale...
The fact is, the market will adjust to earnings and we do not know how much earnings will fall yet but starting to look like maybe as much as 10 to 20% globally?
and ... ok, so the market is now priced for that drop.
The rest is all speculation for ALL of us on where the world goes from here. Some will sell out, some will hang in and some will buy, buy, buy.
1 of the 3 moves will be right and that is what investing is about. We will all find out in the coming year who was right.
I do find it a bit scary, not at all from the virus, to me, its a big nothing but it seems like the first time in history, its the mass media extravaganza that is creating panic among the public for no reason what so ever, except for the fact that most of the public believes the garbage they watch on TV, which is forcing governments to address the panic of the public, again, over a virus that kills no more then all the other ones in the world.
Remember, just 10 years ago we had the Swine Flu, with almost no percussions because our government did nothing while 12,000 Americans died, simply because, every year 100,000 + Americans die from flu's and viruses.
What will be the reaction when 12,000 American are dead from the China Flu? How many understand that even happened 10 years ago, even scarier was 10 years ago it was killing young people more then old and its not even a thought on anyones mind?
Never mind that well over 20,000 and maybe 50,000 dead for this flu season alone simply by the everyday good old USA standard flu.
So now the press reports every day, death by death out of a country of 330 million people, yet many, many, many times more people are dying from the flu at this moment.
Long term, this virus will save, far, far, far many more lives then it is taking, know why?
People are learning the importance of hygiene , including simple ways to avoid picking up flus and viruses. Right now, it seem every store door that opens people are holding the doors with their elbows instead of their hands as an example.
Anyway, the stock market is about prospecting, I am in the camp that as soon as the first signs of this blowing over come, off to the moon the market recovers, I only wish I knew when but I am investing on that theory, actually I am already fully invested. Just remember, not to invest what you cant afford to lose because the market is about speculation and prospecting.
and ... ok, so the market is now priced for that drop.
The rest is all speculation for ALL of us on where the world goes from here. Some will sell out, some will hang in and some will buy, buy, buy.
1 of the 3 moves will be right and that is what investing is about. We will all find out in the coming year who was right.
I do find it a bit scary, not at all from the virus, to me, its a big nothing but it seems like the first time in history, its the mass media extravaganza that is creating panic among the public for no reason what so ever, except for the fact that most of the public believes the garbage they watch on TV, which is forcing governments to address the panic of the public, again, over a virus that kills no more then all the other ones in the world.
Remember, just 10 years ago we had the Swine Flu, with almost no percussions because our government did nothing while 12,000 Americans died, simply because, every year 100,000 + Americans die from flu's and viruses.
What will be the reaction when 12,000 American are dead from the China Flu? How many understand that even happened 10 years ago, even scarier was 10 years ago it was killing young people more then old and its not even a thought on anyones mind?
Never mind that well over 20,000 and maybe 50,000 dead for this flu season alone simply by the everyday good old USA standard flu.
So now the press reports every day, death by death out of a country of 330 million people, yet many, many, many times more people are dying from the flu at this moment.
Long term, this virus will save, far, far, far many more lives then it is taking, know why?
People are learning the importance of hygiene , including simple ways to avoid picking up flus and viruses. Right now, it seem every store door that opens people are holding the doors with their elbows instead of their hands as an example.
Anyway, the stock market is about prospecting, I am in the camp that as soon as the first signs of this blowing over come, off to the moon the market recovers, I only wish I knew when but I am investing on that theory, actually I am already fully invested. Just remember, not to invest what you cant afford to lose because the market is about speculation and prospecting.
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I'm not sure I want to rebalance, it's mostly split between a 2045 Vanguard retirement index and a "high growth" stock thing, and I'd rather let it ride. The market will come back. But whatever I put into the 401k is locked and I can't get to--but cash in the bank I can. Plus I could always flip any cash into a Roth (which I've been putting off doing for no good reason) if things snap back.
I might not do anything. I might take a pay cut, had that happen in '08, but this time around the wife is working for the Census and I think her income would cover the loss. I'd prefer to max out the contribution and buy on the way down (well bottom really, if I could time it--but who can?) but one has to keep an eye on the short term. I'm not sure that 3 months plus savings is feeling as comfortable as it once did.
I might not do anything. I might take a pay cut, had that happen in '08, but this time around the wife is working for the Census and I think her income would cover the loss. I'd prefer to max out the contribution and buy on the way down (well bottom really, if I could time it--but who can?) but one has to keep an eye on the short term. I'm not sure that 3 months plus savings is feeling as comfortable as it once did.
I didn't suggest rebalancing. Just making contributions to a different fund, assuming that's allowed. If your company is enlightened enough to use Vanguard, they should have some investment options.
Just keep maxing out your contributions. I'd be very happy dollar cost averaging into the market starting now.
Just keep maxing out your contributions. I'd be very happy dollar cost averaging into the market starting now.
Originally Posted by supton
Not sure what I'm going to do--got at least 20 years before retirement--so I'm not rebalancing my portfolio. I am tempted to cut back on my contribution to the min required to get company match, just to be sitting on more cash in my bank account, "just in case". Then again, if it does go sideways, company match is one of the first things to get cut so
Cutting back on contributions can have a long lasting effect that you may regret later on.
Right now if you are buying stock funds then you are getting share prices on sale. With a 20 year time horizon that could be significant.
Only you can determine your risk tolerance.
Not sure what I'm going to do--got at least 20 years before retirement--so I'm not rebalancing my portfolio. I am tempted to cut back on my contribution to the min required to get company match, just to be sitting on more cash in my bank account, "just in case". Then again, if it does go sideways, company match is one of the first things to get cut so
Cutting back on contributions can have a long lasting effect that you may regret later on.
Right now if you are buying stock funds then you are getting share prices on sale. With a 20 year time horizon that could be significant.
Only you can determine your risk tolerance.
Originally Posted by Astro14
I didn't suggest rebalancing. Just making contributions to a different fund, assuming that's allowed. If your company is enlightened enough to use Vanguard, they should have some investment options.
Just keep maxing out your contributions. I'd be very happy dollar cost averaging into the market starting now.
My wife makes the decisions on her 401k independent of mine, more or less, there is no right or wrong so we do not influence what each does, has worked out well.
Anyway, before this crash all started happening she had an uneasy feeling because she dealt with companies in China and decided to move her 401k into more conservative funds which softened the blow.
It is one of those instances where I paid more attention to her "feelings' and swapped into as someone in these threads mentioned sometime like a QID or bear fund/index, I haven't lost anything in this market except for unrealized gains, depending on the swing of the day, yet anyway. But moving into bear funds index would have like, wow .. oh well ...
)
I didn't suggest rebalancing. Just making contributions to a different fund, assuming that's allowed. If your company is enlightened enough to use Vanguard, they should have some investment options.
Just keep maxing out your contributions. I'd be very happy dollar cost averaging into the market starting now.
My wife makes the decisions on her 401k independent of mine, more or less, there is no right or wrong so we do not influence what each does, has worked out well.
Anyway, before this crash all started happening she had an uneasy feeling because she dealt with companies in China and decided to move her 401k into more conservative funds which softened the blow.
It is one of those instances where I paid more attention to her "feelings' and swapped into as someone in these threads mentioned sometime like a QID or bear fund/index, I haven't lost anything in this market except for unrealized gains, depending on the swing of the day, yet anyway. But moving into bear funds index would have like, wow .. oh well ...
)
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I am staying the course. I was planning on a few changes before the recent market volatility.
Those changes (sell losses and replace with others) is still the strategy.
Those changes (sell losses and replace with others) is still the strategy.
Originally Posted by alarmguy
Remember, just 10 years ago we had the Swine Flu, with almost no percussions because our government did nothing while 12,000 Americans died, simply because, every year 100,000 + Americans die from flu's and viruses.
What will be the reaction when 12,000 American are dead from the China Flu? How many understand that even happened 10 years ago, even scarier was 10 years ago it was killing young people more then old and its not even a thought on anyones mind?
Never mind that well over 20,000 and maybe 50,000 dead for this flu season alone simply by the everyday good old USA standard flu.
I stopped reading right here, because it's obviously that you're just listening to biased news sources that are not based in reality. That's probably why you are so misinformed.
First off, the government DID react to H1N1? There was a national emergency declared when there were 20 cases (not deaths) reported. Why not read what actually happened during the H1N1 pandemic instead of just believing random misinformation that you're regurgitating: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-pandemic-timeline.html
There was early action taken during the H1N1 outbreak, and the mortality rates were very low (.02%, vs 1 to 2%). These aren't even remotely close to the same thing?
It's clear you're looking at everything through a heavily biased filter and getting your news sources that are incredibly slanted, so it's really hard to give credence to anything else you have to say. This is probably why you've failed to realize from the very beginning the severity of the crisis.
Remember, just 10 years ago we had the Swine Flu, with almost no percussions because our government did nothing while 12,000 Americans died, simply because, every year 100,000 + Americans die from flu's and viruses.
What will be the reaction when 12,000 American are dead from the China Flu? How many understand that even happened 10 years ago, even scarier was 10 years ago it was killing young people more then old and its not even a thought on anyones mind?
Never mind that well over 20,000 and maybe 50,000 dead for this flu season alone simply by the everyday good old USA standard flu.
I stopped reading right here, because it's obviously that you're just listening to biased news sources that are not based in reality. That's probably why you are so misinformed.
First off, the government DID react to H1N1? There was a national emergency declared when there were 20 cases (not deaths) reported. Why not read what actually happened during the H1N1 pandemic instead of just believing random misinformation that you're regurgitating: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-pandemic-timeline.html
There was early action taken during the H1N1 outbreak, and the mortality rates were very low (.02%, vs 1 to 2%). These aren't even remotely close to the same thing?
It's clear you're looking at everything through a heavily biased filter and getting your news sources that are incredibly slanted, so it's really hard to give credence to anything else you have to say. This is probably why you've failed to realize from the very beginning the severity of the crisis.
Originally Posted by alarmguy
My wife makes the decisions on her 401k independent of mine, more or less, there is no right or wrong so we do not influence what each does, has worked out well.
Anyway, before this crash all started happening she had an uneasy feeling because she dealt with companies in China and decided to move her 401k into more conservative funds which softened the blow.
It is one of those instances where I paid more attention to her "feelings' and swapped into as someone in these threads mentioned sometime like a QID or bear fund/index, I haven't lost anything in this market except for unrealized gains, depending on the swing of the day, yet anyway. But moving into bear funds index would have like, wow .. oh well ...)
Alarmguy, I don't think those aren't "feelings" as much as direct observations. I think they're more reliable than just thinking that a 40 year increase will never stop... Things were bad in China before Covid-19. They've been a disaster since. And China is just about out of levers to pull. It's going to a hard few month to a year or for them--and in turn, the world.
My wife makes the decisions on her 401k independent of mine, more or less, there is no right or wrong so we do not influence what each does, has worked out well.
Anyway, before this crash all started happening she had an uneasy feeling because she dealt with companies in China and decided to move her 401k into more conservative funds which softened the blow.
It is one of those instances where I paid more attention to her "feelings' and swapped into as someone in these threads mentioned sometime like a QID or bear fund/index, I haven't lost anything in this market except for unrealized gains, depending on the swing of the day, yet anyway. But moving into bear funds index would have like, wow .. oh well ...
)Alarmguy, I don't think those aren't "feelings" as much as direct observations. I think they're more reliable than just thinking that a 40 year increase will never stop... Things were bad in China before Covid-19. They've been a disaster since. And China is just about out of levers to pull. It's going to a hard few month to a year or for them--and in turn, the world.
Originally Posted by JOD
Originally Posted by alarmguy
Remember, just 10 years ago we had the Swine Flu, with almost no percussions because our government did nothing while 12,000 Americans died, simply because, every year 100,000 + Americans die from flu's and viruses.
What will be the reaction when 12,000 American are dead from the China Flu? How many understand that even happened 10 years ago, even scarier was 10 years ago it was killing young people more then old and its not even a thought on anyones mind?
Never mind that well over 20,000 and maybe 50,000 dead for this flu season alone simply by the everyday good old USA standard flu.
I stopped reading right here, because it's obviously that you're just listening to biased news sources that are not based in reality. That's probably why you are so misinformed.
First off, the government DID react to H1N1? There was a national emergency declared when there were 20 cases (not deaths) reported. Why not read what actually happened during the H1N1 pandemic instead of just believing random misinformation that you're regurgitating: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-pandemic-timeline.html
There was early action taken during the H1N1 outbreak, and the mortality rates were very low (.02%, vs 1 to 2%). These aren't even remotely close to the same thing?
It's clear you're looking at everything through a heavily biased filter and getting your news sources that are incredibly slanted, so it's really hard to give credence to anything else you have to say. This is probably why you've failed to realize from the very beginning the severity of the crisis.
It's crazy how people decry fake news but then only use one news source so they can't tell when they're getting it. I've always checked multiple news sources. The real issue here isn't really the death rate. It's that hospitals will be overwhelmed and that 1-2% death rate will be much higher. Death rates in Wuhan were much higher than the rest of the country and death rates in northern Italy are also higher because their hospital system was swamped. That's the part that people who say 10-20 times death rate is no big deal but don't realize that the hospitals can handle the flu load, they just can't handle this load if everyone gets infected like the regular flu.
As for the stock market, looks like the S&P 500 futures are closed so we'll see what happens tomorrow.
Originally Posted by alarmguy
Remember, just 10 years ago we had the Swine Flu, with almost no percussions because our government did nothing while 12,000 Americans died, simply because, every year 100,000 + Americans die from flu's and viruses.
What will be the reaction when 12,000 American are dead from the China Flu? How many understand that even happened 10 years ago, even scarier was 10 years ago it was killing young people more then old and its not even a thought on anyones mind?
Never mind that well over 20,000 and maybe 50,000 dead for this flu season alone simply by the everyday good old USA standard flu.
I stopped reading right here, because it's obviously that you're just listening to biased news sources that are not based in reality. That's probably why you are so misinformed.
First off, the government DID react to H1N1? There was a national emergency declared when there were 20 cases (not deaths) reported. Why not read what actually happened during the H1N1 pandemic instead of just believing random misinformation that you're regurgitating: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-pandemic-timeline.html
There was early action taken during the H1N1 outbreak, and the mortality rates were very low (.02%, vs 1 to 2%). These aren't even remotely close to the same thing?
It's clear you're looking at everything through a heavily biased filter and getting your news sources that are incredibly slanted, so it's really hard to give credence to anything else you have to say. This is probably why you've failed to realize from the very beginning the severity of the crisis.
It's crazy how people decry fake news but then only use one news source so they can't tell when they're getting it. I've always checked multiple news sources. The real issue here isn't really the death rate. It's that hospitals will be overwhelmed and that 1-2% death rate will be much higher. Death rates in Wuhan were much higher than the rest of the country and death rates in northern Italy are also higher because their hospital system was swamped. That's the part that people who say 10-20 times death rate is no big deal but don't realize that the hospitals can handle the flu load, they just can't handle this load if everyone gets infected like the regular flu.
As for the stock market, looks like the S&P 500 futures are closed so we'll see what happens tomorrow.
Will the global economy get ‘sick' and decline into a recession ?
Lots of European economies were already in bad shape before CV hit.
I have a feeling a recession will ‘officially' be declared in the USA after the election. Just my
After the election..... [censored] will hit the fan and it will be worse than 2009.
alarmguy,
Quote
Just remember, not to invest what you cant afford to lose because the market is about speculation and prospecting.
I agree to invest what you can afford to lose and the market is a lot about emotion, speculation and prospecting. It's definitely better to be out a little early than to try and exit a little too late.
Lots of European economies were already in bad shape before CV hit.
I have a feeling a recession will ‘officially' be declared in the USA after the election. Just my
After the election..... [censored] will hit the fan and it will be worse than 2009.
alarmguy,
Quote
Just remember, not to invest what you cant afford to lose because the market is about speculation and prospecting.
I agree to invest what you can afford to lose and the market is a lot about emotion, speculation and prospecting. It's definitely better to be out a little early than to try and exit a little too late.
Originally Posted by supton
Not sure what I'm going to do--got at least 20 years before retirement--so I'm not rebalancing my portfolio. I am tempted to cut back on my contribution to the min required to get company match, just to be sitting on more cash in my bank account, "just in case". Then again, if it does go sideways, company match is one of the first things to get cut so
I'd rebalance, but not cut your contributions unless you have other debt. Of course, it also depends on how much reserves you have on hand, and how secure you are in your job and profession. I'd really try and avoid cutting the contribution amount though, even if it's going into low yield stuff for now. I think you'll regret it later.
Not sure what I'm going to do--got at least 20 years before retirement--so I'm not rebalancing my portfolio. I am tempted to cut back on my contribution to the min required to get company match, just to be sitting on more cash in my bank account, "just in case". Then again, if it does go sideways, company match is one of the first things to get cut so
I'd rebalance, but not cut your contributions unless you have other debt. Of course, it also depends on how much reserves you have on hand, and how secure you are in your job and profession. I'd really try and avoid cutting the contribution amount though, even if it's going into low yield stuff for now. I think you'll regret it later.
Originally Posted by JOD
Originally Posted by supton
Not sure what I'm going to do--got at least 20 years before retirement--so I'm not rebalancing my portfolio. I am tempted to cut back on my contribution to the min required to get company match, just to be sitting on more cash in my bank account, "just in case". Then again, if it does go sideways, company match is one of the first things to get cut so
I'd rebalance, but not cut your contributions unless you have other debt. Of course, it also depends on how much reserves you have on hand, and how secure you are in your job and profession. I'd really try and avoid cutting the contribution amount though, even if it's going into low yield stuff for now. I think you'll regret it later.
Only have about 3 months savings but have 30 years mortgage. Also have two whipper-snappers at home who are too young to get jobs.
I don't see why I'd want to rebalance--isn't that selling low and buying high when I rebalance? I'm 25 years out from retirement. I haven't looked to see what the markets are doing, I try not to look very often.
Job I think is somewhat secure--lots of seniority but not immune to pay cuts as required. Maybe 10 years down the line that could change, but short term, no worries. But I could definitely see loss of pay for this year. Depends on the economy.
The problem with putting money into a 401k is that, once in, it can't come out (easily) for 16 years. So it's a risk game. What I don't put in today won't grow over 25 years, but I also gotta get through this year too.
Originally Posted by supton
Not sure what I'm going to do--got at least 20 years before retirement--so I'm not rebalancing my portfolio. I am tempted to cut back on my contribution to the min required to get company match, just to be sitting on more cash in my bank account, "just in case". Then again, if it does go sideways, company match is one of the first things to get cut so
I'd rebalance, but not cut your contributions unless you have other debt. Of course, it also depends on how much reserves you have on hand, and how secure you are in your job and profession. I'd really try and avoid cutting the contribution amount though, even if it's going into low yield stuff for now. I think you'll regret it later.
Only have about 3 months savings but have 30 years mortgage. Also have two whipper-snappers at home who are too young to get jobs.
I don't see why I'd want to rebalance--isn't that selling low and buying high when I rebalance? I'm 25 years out from retirement. I haven't looked to see what the markets are doing, I try not to look very often.
Job I think is somewhat secure--lots of seniority but not immune to pay cuts as required. Maybe 10 years down the line that could change, but short term, no worries. But I could definitely see loss of pay for this year. Depends on the economy.
The problem with putting money into a 401k is that, once in, it can't come out (easily) for 16 years. So it's a risk game. What I don't put in today won't grow over 25 years, but I also gotta get through this year too.
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