Originally Posted by Navi
I fully expect Carnival Cruises to fold along with some of the airlines. Its very difficult to imagine anyone who would like to go on a cruise. If you ask me honestly...would you like to go on a cruise right now even at an extreme discount or for free..NO. Would you like to go on a cruise 3 months from now even at an extreme discount or for free...NO. I guess I would not feel comfortable going on a cruise until there is a vaccine and its injected into me and its taken effect which is about a year or more. Same with the airlines. I cant imagine jumping on an airliner now or even months from now.
Trading a stock like Carnival Cruises will be different than my dire prediction. There will be unpredictable snap back rallies and times where it floats sideways. However, I believe after seeing ship after ship out at sea on television with a swarm of virus victims...I think its safe to assume. No one wants to go on a cruise for quite a while.
I would personally stick with Basic Materials ETFS. I have been burned by small cap stocks in the past and thats my preference to stick with. In general, I think select stocks and etfs in the Basic Materials section will do well.
Well once you could have a cruise for all those who had it and recovered. You'd have to find staff that also already had it. Plus like large projects, even if the cruise lines go under, the ships are still around and someone else will buy the ships and operate it. Sorta like some large projects like the Panama canal or some nuclear power plants that went under several times before it finally ended up with one company. The company may disappear, but not the asset.