Stock advice

[14Accent]

May I have the details here?

Sure.

I don't know the first thing about investing, however according to my portfolio overview the fund that I initially contributed to has 9.17% returns over the past 10 years. Some years were closer to 12%, some closer to 7%.

I moved some money into a different fund on 3/20/20, and since then it's provided a 32% return YTD. I'm completely aware that this was just luck of the draw given the circumstances.

It's just like my hunch that Plug Power stock was going to take off. Picked it up for $4.86 a share early this year, closed today at $17.75, not far off it's 52w high. Same with my hunch that buying Sprint stock for cheap just before the T-Mobile merger was approved. Sometimes you just get lucky.

 

[JeffKeryk]

Sure.

I don't know the first thing about investing, however according to my portfolio overview the fund that I initially contributed to has 9.17% returns over the past 10 years. Some years were closer to 12%, some closer to 7%.

I moved some money into a different fund on 3/20/20, and since then it's provided a 32% return YTD. I'm completely aware that this was just luck of the draw given the circumstances.

It's just like my hunch that Plug Power stock was going to take off. Picked it up for $4.86 a share early this year, closed today at $17.75, not far off it's 52w high. Same with my hunch that buying Sprint stock for cheap just before the T-Mobile merger was approved. Sometimes you just get lucky.

Which funds might those be?

 

[Wolf359]

Which funds might those be?

I don't think those funds are that interesting. The Fidelity FXAIX has returned 13.73% over the last 10 years. There's a few other funds I'm in like Fidelity ContraFund FCNTX and Janus 40 JACTX that have also done well. Contrafund is up 15.52% over the last 10 years and 29.09% year to date. Before we had that drop earlier, it was in the 30+ range. Same with Janus 40, 16.48% over the last 10 and 31.82% year to date. You could probably find a few other funds searching through Morningstar that can be the S&P 500 index fund, there aren't that many out there though.

 

[Astro14]

Past performance doesn’t predict future results...

 

[SuperSalad]

Oh it can predict them....




It's just that the prediction's only purpose is to increase/decrease confidence and there are no guarantees.

 

[Dave Hess]

Oh it can predict them....




It's just that the prediction's only purpose is to increase/decrease confidence and there are no guarantees.

Are you taking profits ?

2021 will have some opportunities if you have a little bit of cash on the sidelines....

.

 

[TheLawnRanger]

Anyone ever get stock advice the Garage Journal board or 355nation.net?

 

[SuperSalad]

Are you taking profits ?

2021 will have some opportunities if you have a little bit of cash on the sidelines....

.

I'm fairly young, so most of my investments are in what would be considered high risk areas. I have a couple benchmarks where if they are crossed, I'm likely taking profits and moving into lower risk/yield categories until I am comfortable coming back in. I'm not trying to necessarily "time the market", but I believe I have a good chance of benefiting either monetarily or mentally. I do have some cash I had left alone for another purpose earlier this year, but I can see it becoming a tool to average my way down at least a little bit in case of a major market correction.

 

[doitmyself]

........I have a couple benchmarks where if they are crossed, I'm likely taking profits and moving into lower risk/yield categories until I am comfortable coming back in. I'm not trying to necessarily "time the market", but I believe I have a good chance of benefiting either monetarily or mentally.

Someone please explain the bolded concept vs. what I was taught: In down markets you sit tight and weather the storm. During down markets, you are accumulating more stocks at lower prices. When the market goes back up, you have even more stock earnings moving up.

 

[SuperSalad]

Right, the benchmarks I mentioned are "high points" where I believe the market won't likely go much higher without a significant downturn. I intend to move my assets which are in high risk categories into lower risk so during this downturn, I might only lose 15% of the peak value compared to maybe 25-30% if I keep them in the higher risk areas. This would allow for moderate gains in the lower risk investments if I am wrong (and obviously missing out on the higher gains I would've seen if I did nothing). As long as I "rebuy" into my higher risk categories at any point lower than where I back out, I would consider that to have been a good move on my part in the end.

I'm not trying to sell at the highest and buy at the lowest, just to sell somewhere on the uptrend and buy somewhere on the downtrend. This is all due to the recent volatility I am perceiving in the markets as a whole. To me, the markets seem crazy and I'm pretty convinced there will be a correction which will open up this opportunity. Keep in mind, I am not going to stop accumulating during this time regardless of what happens. My accumulation rate will remain the same and will continue accumulating in the high risk categories I've done all along. This would be simply moving existing assets (gains) to lower risk (and likely lower reward) segments for a relatively short period of time until I am comfortable in my own bubble of risk tolerance to re-enter my regular strategy of load everything I've got into high risk high reward funds while I'm relatively young.

The idea is to shield some of the ridiculous gains I've accumulated this past year from the market turmoil I am predicting.

 

[PandaBear]

Personally i'm investing as much as possible right now as i think things will work out to the upside. Stuff like energy sector still very low. REITs still very low.
Cash is nice but who knows what you are going to miss out on.

I did that in 2016, I missed the boat. Right now I just disregard political cycles and invest in things I know and trust for the next 10 years and stay put.

I don't know energy or commercial real estate, so I am staying away from it. I know the mom and pop landlord thing is already oversaturated and my family is starting to divest from it. Plus parents are getting old and at 72 they should gradually leave the mom and pop landlord "job" and enjoy their retirement. I am not ready to quit my engineering job to manage them.

 

[PandaBear]

Are BITOG folks taking profits before the storm on the horizon ?

Not me, I don't see what else can money be put in that won't get hyper inflated away. The stock I have right now I have faith they will remain in good value in the long run, so I am staying put until I see something else I can buy.

 

[JHZR2]

Are you taking profits ?

2021 will have some opportunities if you have a little bit of cash on the sidelines....

.

I’ll flip it back at you - do you believe the studies that show that missing the very few (like five) best days results in a significantly lower (like many percent) return?

If so, then those invested in broad index funds will not, and perhaps the same in more narrow funds.

Individual stocks will be somewhat different of course, and more contingent upon if a company is overbought, oversold, if their situation is improving, deteriorating, etc.

 

[Dave Hess]

JHZR2,

Yes, I’m aware of that study.

I also aware of the terrible financial problems our country is facing in the very near future.

.

 

[Wolf359]

JHZR2,

Yes, I’m aware of that study.

I also aware of the terrible financial problems our country is facing in the very near future.

.

But you're also aware how there's a terrible disconnect between the stock market and real life right? There's no other place left to stash any money. At least interest rates aren't negative. Money flowing in always pushes up the market.

 

[JeffKeryk]

But you're also aware how there's a terrible disconnect between the stock market and real life right? There's no other place left to stash any money. At least interest rates aren't negative. Money flowing in always pushes up the market.

Perfect advice? There is no such thing in the investment world.
But this is darn pretty close, in my opinion.
Schwab tells me, "You should always make your money work for you."

 

[PimTac]

Perfect advice? There is no such thing in the investment world.
But this is darn pretty close, in my opinion.
Schwab tells me, "You should always make your money work for you."

Very true. None of us knows what the future will bring. This downturn may not materialize at all, it might be a short downturn or it might be a secular bear market like 1966-82.

 

[Wolf359]

Very true. None of us knows what the future will bring. This downturn may not materialize at all, it might be a short downturn or it might be a secular bear market like 1966-82.

And for the record, we just went through one of the shortest bear markets.

 

[Dave Hess]

I did warn a few folks on BITOG about

But you're also aware how there's a terrible disconnect between the stock market and real life right? There's no other place left to stash any money. At least interest rates aren't negative. Money flowing in always pushes up the market.

Yes, I’m aware of the big disconnect between the stock market and real life.


The 0.01% folks are placing orders for their new Gulfstream G700 jets...... elsewhere in the USA there are 2 mile long lines of cars waiting at a food bank to get a bag of free groceries.

Everything is sunshine and roses cause the people on TV say everything is OK.


.

 

[Wolf359]

Yes, I’m aware of the big disconnect between the stock market and real life.

The 0.01% folks are placing orders for their new Gulfstream G700 jets...... elsewhere in the USA there are 2 mile long lines of cars waiting at a food bank to get a bag of free groceries.

Everything is sunshine and roses cause the people on TV say everything is OK.

You don't have to watch TV to feel that everything is ok, just look at the portfolio balance.

The ones most impacted are small business and retail workers like restaurants. Those business aren't really well represented in the S&P 500 so it can keep going up even though there's 7.9% unemployment. Which is down from 14.7% back in April. Before that, it averaged around 3.5%. So while it's bad, it's slowly getting better as Monty Python would say.