Stock advice
- Thread starter measureman
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If you don't believe in the US Bureau of Labor statistics, then who do you believe? Sure they might be inaccurate, but they use the same methods and if you compare them from month to month, you still get the same variation. Remember, not everyone in those food lines are unemployed, the bottom 20% have a mean income of around $13k in 2018.
United States Unemployment Rate
Unemployment Rate in the United States increased to 3.90 percent in February from 3.70 percent in January of 2024. This page provides the latest reported value for - United States Unemployment Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction...
tradingeconomics.com
Household Income Quintiles
Income limits and mean income for each quintile of household income, 1967 through 2021.
NAKs water mitigation plan for the mine was rejected.
Thus probably ending the chance to mine the largest mineral deposit in the world and it's on American soil.
Tree huggers and wacko environmentalists in Alaska want us to rely on foreign companies and countries for Gold,Copper,Silver etc.,
With all that said the stock lost 50 % costing me over $1200.
$1200 is not much to most investors but it's a lot to me.
Going into this 4 years ago I knew it was a high risk gamble with a huge upside.
I sold what I had and put the money in Tesla and G.E.
Pretty solid companies.
Or at least until I put my money into them.
Look more at broad based big companies. GE is not what they used to be. Proctor and Gamble (PG) is a company that holds up through thick and thin and pays a nice dividend to boot as a example.
TSLA is a interesting case that has been discussed ad nauseam here. Their numbers are not favorable but the share price keeps going up. Now if SpaceX were to go public then that would be a good buy.
Educating ones self always comes with mistakes and stumbles. That is how we learn
TSLA is a interesting case that has been discussed ad nauseam here. Their numbers are not favorable but the share price keeps going up. Now if SpaceX were to go public then that would be a good buy.
Educating ones self always comes with mistakes and stumbles. That is how we learn
I'm up double in GE, double in Macy's in 2 weeks, buy SONO.
I might be biased as a small landlord's son. I do not trust the "unemployment" number, but rather the under employed. Even then the official number is not something I will trust.
What I really trust is the market rent and market real estate transaction price. People can buy all the groceries and iPhone in the world, it is just spare change in their budget. They can also buy SUVs and pick up trucks, that's just means interest rate is high or low. But rent and home price, they are the real cost these days, they are what people will really look at when they have their budget.
WMT has been my darling through all the craziness of the last almost two years.
Its kept this portfolio in the blue through even the worst of the covid crisis since it is my main holding in this account @ 80%
Just love this company, (cant believe I am saying that) This is a long term investment for me, not speculation. Dont misunderstand me, I know many people have done far better and some far worse. I look at this one as almost a savings account, safe, secure and huge returns.
This is my purchase price/ unrealized gain so far is 55.25% as of 12/1/20 before market open;
Its kept this portfolio in the blue through even the worst of the covid crisis since it is my main holding in this account @ 80%
Just love this company, (cant believe I am saying that) This is a long term investment for me, not speculation. Dont misunderstand me, I know many people have done far better and some far worse. I look at this one as almost a savings account, safe, secure and huge returns.
This is my purchase price/ unrealized gain so far is 55.25% as of 12/1/20 before market open;
| 03/25/19 | 98.4148 |
If you believe the government’s ‘official’ unemployment number..... you also believe in the Easter Bunny.
I have a few shares of Amazon and it’s driven my accounts to new highs.
Even 5-6 years ago I was recommending Amazon on various forums.
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I have a few shares of Amazon and it’s driven my accounts to new highs.
Even 5-6 years ago I was recommending Amazon on various forums.
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If you don't understand bias, you probably believe in the Easter bunny also. All you provide is anecdotal evidence which is terribly unreliable. If you're homeless and hang out with other homeless, you'd think there's a big homeless problem. If you're an alcoholic or drug user and know many in the same social circle, your perception of the problem would be biased based on the company you keep. Similarly with unemployment, you may know many unemployed or under employed, but you're not really qualified to give an assessment of it because your assessment is based on local conditions.
Wolf,
I was kidding around and I know you are a very smart person.
Never believe ANY information the government releases...... especially their statistics and data.
Just because something is measured doesn’t make the data accurate.
Imagine using a tire pressure gauge that is not accurate. You believe the PSI of all 4 of your tires is accurate, but in reality they are all off by 10 PSI. You then measure the tire pressure of your wife’s car thinking you did a good job.... but again the PSI is way off. Now imagine if you checked 10M tires, all your data is incorrect. You just have lots of worthless data.
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I was kidding around and I know you are a very smart person.
Never believe ANY information the government releases...... especially their statistics and data.
Just because something is measured doesn’t make the data accurate.
Imagine using a tire pressure gauge that is not accurate. You believe the PSI of all 4 of your tires is accurate, but in reality they are all off by 10 PSI. You then measure the tire pressure of your wife’s car thinking you did a good job.... but again the PSI is way off. Now imagine if you checked 10M tires, all your data is incorrect. You just have lots of worthless data.
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I never claimed that it was accurate. It is a big government agency and they have specific methodologies. It's understandable that people don't trust certain things. But I don't believe in blanket statements. If you don't trust the numbers, they're public information, you'd have to dig into them to tell me why they shouldn't be trusted. To just say that you can't trust them is being intellectually dishonest when you can't say why. Otherwise even if they use a flawed methodology, it's the same one so you can still use it to compare it from one era to the other. Just like a tire gauge that's off by 10 psi, once you know that, you can adjust for that. Just like the unemployment numbers are the official numbers and don't include underemployed and people who stopped looking. They never have.
I've stayed put for the last month-and-a-half or so...hard to "sniff" the future if you know what I mean 
The bigger reason I don't trust it in the US is that they do not measure people who are not actively looking (gave up), never found their first job (new grad), in and out of employment (part time working), or working but only making insufficient amount of income (under employed).
I don't think that makes any sense though. The US unemployment numbers excludes those classes on purpose as it's hard to measure.
So you don't trust a number because it doesn't include things that they don't even claim to measure?
Wolf,
There‘s definitely a lot more unemployed folks in the USA than being reported.
I don’t want to get this thread shut down..... but it’s NOT normal for 25,000 people (6000 vehicles) to show up at a food bank in Dallas 2 weeks ago and waiting a few hours in line to get a box of food to feed their family.
It’s going to get very bad once the evictions / foreclosures begin and the courts allow people to get kicked of of their place of shelter. Lots of big industries are affected by the illness and many of those jobs are not coming back soon.
Some people just don’t understand how bad things are going to get in the very near future.
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There‘s definitely a lot more unemployed folks in the USA than being reported.
I don’t want to get this thread shut down..... but it’s NOT normal for 25,000 people (6000 vehicles) to show up at a food bank in Dallas 2 weeks ago and waiting a few hours in line to get a box of food to feed their family.
It’s going to get very bad once the evictions / foreclosures begin and the courts allow people to get kicked of of their place of shelter. Lots of big industries are affected by the illness and many of those jobs are not coming back soon.
Some people just don’t understand how bad things are going to get in the very near future.
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Right but that's always been true, official unemployment numbers never covered everyone. While the numbers are down, it's still twice what it was from a year ago.
Forward projections tend to be unreliable. Look at those who were waiting for the big stock market dip. Could still happen, but didn't happen according to their schedule.
There's also reports the the eviction/foreclosure bans will kick in again on Jan 20th. But again, forward predictions are unreliable.
Correct. I still look at it but I do not use unemployment number primarily for any decision making. They won't tell you if someone got a pay cut, turned part time, lost their health insurance, or have to move back to their parents. Typically road traffic or market rent paint a much better picture on those early on (mortgage delinquent would be next but will lag for a while). Of course, currently we cannot use road traffic as an indicator, but things like rent is always the better way to judge people's confidence / affordability.
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