NPR reports US home prices hit all time high in June 2025

[alarmguy]

I think this is an EXCELLENT write up/opinion on the housing market for those who say homes are too expensive in today's world.
I have said consistently for years in this forum is young buyers want everything in a home. Boomers started out with one bathroom, raised a family in those homes and lived within their means.
No one wants those homes anymore and the builders respond likewise to what sells.

https://dadisfire.com/gen-z-millennials-skip-starter-homes/

I wonder how many will read and watch the video in the above link all the way through to the end. This chart came from that link.

 

[SC Maintenance]

I dont agree. Selling price is the price the buyer pays that is all that matters. Closing price.

If the seller buys down the mortgage by pre-paying $10K in interest payments, then effectively the price is $10K less. NAR is supposed to capture this in their data but Fannie says they are not (per Chris Whalen and Melody Wright, both commented on it many times)

Like hello, Median is half the sale price is lower and half higher.

If only the higher end homes are selling (K-shaped recovery) then by definition the median sales price will rise much higher than the overall inventory of housing would suggest if selling proportionally. Overall unit sales continue to decline to early 90's levels when the population was 20% less. Like Hello thats math.

Luckily there is a report on this "The first quarter of 2025 began on an optimistic note. January saw a significant boost in activity, withsales of single-family luxury homes up 17.6% compared to the year prior "

February continued to deliver high inventory levels, up another 24% year-over-year
March brought a notable resurgence. Single-family home sales rebounded 7.3%"

https://www.luxuryhomemarketing.com/assets/LMR_NorthAmerica.pdf...

 

[supton]

I think this is an EXCELLENT write up/opinion on the housing market for those who say homes are too expensive in today's world.
I have said consistently for years in this forum is young buyers want everything in a home. Boomers started out with one bathroom, raised a family in those homes and lived within their means.
No one wants those homes anymore and the builders respond likewise to what sells.

https://dadisfire.com/gen-z-millennials-skip-starter-homes/

I wonder how many will read and watch the video in the above link all the way through to the end. This chart came from that link.
View attachment 292632

I scanned through the article. I wanted to object, but the last bit I think I agree with:

When buyers skip the first step, the rest of the system falls apart. Starter homes were never about perfection, they were about momentum. Without them, demand piles up at the middle and top, pushing prices higher for everyone.

I think there's a point there. I do think it props up the real estate industry (every sale means they get a cut) but if people could & would move more often, and you had starter homes, and mid life homes, and end of life homes (ok that sounds bad but you get the idea ) then it should be easier to move about. And to get one's first home.

But at this time, "no one" wants starter homes, so it's something of a trap that ought to be avoided IMO.

*

I dunno, expectations go up for everything. There was a time when indoor plumbing and having electricity & phone were "pretty fancy". Demand can drive price down, and it's just cheaper to put into the home in the first place (the extra bath, bedroom--maybe it's not so hard to do the garage later?). As family sizes drop one wonders why we need 4 bedrooms anymore. Unless if people are planning on having extended families again? extra generations under one roof? I'm dubious of that at this time, so I'll agree to the idea that people's expectations are too high. But it's hard to buck the trend on this one IMO. Homes should not be looked at as investments but no one wants to view them as anchors either.

 

[alarmguy]

...and end of life homes (ok that sounds bad but you get the idea )...

Gulp ... yeah, I know, my wife and I are now in our last home. Sold our 5 bedroom in SC to a young couple with 2 kids back in 2022.
Bought a new smaller ranch on the NC coast. Yeah, its hard to sink in but this is the last stop ... (though we still see ourselves as youngish)

 

[alarmguy]

If the seller buys down the mortgage by pre-paying $10K in interest payments, then effectively the price is $10K less. NAR is supposed to capture this in their data but Fannie says they are not (per Chris Whalen and Melody Wright, both commented on it many times)

If only the higher end homes are selling (K-shaped recovery) then by definition the median sales price will rise much higher than the overall inventory of housing would suggest if selling proportionally. Overall unit sales continue to decline to early 90's levels when the population was 20% less. Like Hello thats math.

Luckily there is a report on this "The first quarter of 2025 began on an optimistic note. January saw a significant boost in activity, withsales of single-family luxury homes up 17.6% compared to the year prior "

February continued to deliver high inventory levels, up another 24% year-over-year
March brought a notable resurgence. Single-family home sales rebounded 7.3%"

https://www.luxuryhomemarketing.com/assets/LMR_NorthAmerica.pdf...

I. know you are skeptical of the association (NAR) but besides it being an association of real estate agents it's also a data company. They collect the data that is available, so for some to say "supposed to capture" by people commenting doesnt make sense. Why doesnt someone else then "capture" the information? after all, the information is only what is made public that they can capture. The whole argument by some, trusting the names you mention above doesnt make sense to me because NAR has the same public information that anyone can use. So then why doesnt Zillow or Redfin use that information and report like NAR does? Got me, but NAR is not privy to any more information that the rest of the tech companies are.

Maybe the solution if you want purchase price to take into account real estate fees or seller concessions etc. the above parties should seek to revamp the HUD statements to reflect "effective sale price" Honestly that doesnt make much sense to me and will never happen. Honestly that would, I think give a more strong hold and control on the real estate market by the real estate firms that some in here hate so much. It would put the For Sale By Owner at a huge disadvantage trying to sell his house at an above market value in his area brought down because of new HUD reporting standards listing sale prices as "effective sales prices"

I am sure you know, marriages have been put off by the young and also in record numbers just living together. The marriages that do take place are also put off to an older age, children are also put off to an older age and less of them. We cant use 20 and 30 year old buying habits in today's world. The above used to be a driver to purchase a home, many young now are staying single longer and have no interest in a home.

 

[SC Maintenance]

I. know you are skeptical of the association (NAR) but besides it being an association of real estate agents it's also a data company. They collect the data that is available, so for some to say "supposed to capture" by people commenting doesnt make sense. Why doesnt someone else then "capture" the information?

Thats the exact point, No one else can capture it because they exert monopolistic control over the market and no one else has access to the data. This is exactly the federal lawsuit they lost - about anti-trust and being a monopoly. It was never about commissions or fees. They violated the Sherman Act.

Realistically, most people that transact a few properties a year are virtually required to utilize the monopolistic NAR / MLS or they will be kneecapped figurately by being restricted from the vast majority of the market. The NAR is the mafia that controls it.

The rest of your comments on commissions or social issue I have no real knowledge or interest in. Not sure if they were directed at me or not?

 

[alarmguy]

Thats the exact point, No one else can capture it because they exert monopolistic control over the market and no one else has access to the data. This is exactly the federal lawsuit they lost - about anti-trust and being a monopoly. It was never about commissions or fees. They violated the Sherman Act.

Realistically, most people that transact a few properties a year are virtually required to utilize the monopolistic NAR / MLS or they will be kneecapped figurately by being restricted from the vast majority of the market. The NAR is the mafia that controls it.

The rest of your comments on commissions or social issue I have no real knowledge or interest in. Not sure if they were directed at me or not?

This is not correct. EVERYONE has access to the data. They cant possibly restrict government data. They are not the government, they simply collect public data.

NAR and MLS are two different entities. NAR does not have the power to restrict sales data. Sales data is controlled by the US Government on the HUD statement. Sales data is also available on county government assessors websites in every county and city. NAR collects it better than anyone but anyone can do the same thing they do.

NAR besides an association comprised of around 50%+ of real estate companies is simply a data company that pulls that information together. ANYONE can do it. NAR does not control it.
Unrelated MLS boards also do not control it. HUD is a government form filed with every real estate transaction.
Local governments use the HUD statements to set the property taxes you pay. NAR doesnt have that information to control, it's government information that it collects.

"Directed at you?" Dont take our discussion as confrontational, maybe I mistook the meaning of some of your post because you commented on single home sales rebounding etc. Also part of the thread was the affordability of homes so not directed at you but I thought part of your post was homes sales.

(This below is unrelated but since you brought it up for some reason that has nothing to do with sales data
Offering selling agents a commission has nothing to do with the above except you are wrong in your statement that no one else has access to the "data" The "data" is the government HUD form, has nothing what so ever to do with NAR or the 645 independent MLS boards in the USA>
https://www.nar.realtor/magazine/re.../the-truth-about-the-nar-settlement-agreement)

 

[SC Maintenance]

This is not correct. EVERYONE has access to the data. They cant possibly restrict government data. They are not the government, they simply collect public data.

NAR and MLS are two different entities. NAR does not have the power to restrict sales data. Sales data is controlled by the US Government on the HUD statement. Sales data is also available on county government assessors websites in every county and city. NAR collects it better than anyone but anyone can do the same thing they do.

HUD-1 has been replaced by CDF, and neither have ever been public records. There held by the title company and lender maybe.

All the county cares about is the deed.

So no, I don't have access.

 

[Arc]

History teachers us that every civilization reaches a peak in prosperity right before it disappeared. When things fall apart the people can't adjust and chaos happens. If only we knew what home prices looked like before all the falls we could know where we stand. Or not, who knows lol?

 

[zzyzzx]

View attachment 292632

I wonder if that chart would show regional differences? I mean in places like the south and southwest where they aren't any basements (and no attics on newer builds) you are going to want more bedrooms.

 

[GON]

History teachers us that every civilization reaches a peak in prosperity right before it disappeared. When things fall apart the people can't adjust and chaos happens. If only we knew what home prices looked like before all the falls we could know where we stand. Or not, who knows lol?

No debate with your post.

A question to ask, is home values in collapsed nations. Using Haiti as an example. A failed state, yet single family home prices in Haiti have not collapsed.

 

[alarmguy]

I wonder if that chart would show regional differences? I mean in places like the south and southwest where they aren't any basements (and no attics on newer builds) you are going to want more bedrooms.

I doubt it would show that. Critical data analysis is in the dumpster when it comes to media.

 

[alarmguy]

HUD-1 has been replaced by CDF, and neither have ever been public records. There held by the title company and lender maybe.

All the county cares about is the deed.

So no, I don't have access.

Either does NAR if you don’t
But I bet you do. If you’re willing to disclose your county.
My former County was Richland County in South Carolina and everybody’s sale price is listed by address. In fact until they increased privacy, the amount of mortgage that the homeowners had was also publicly disclosed but now you can opt out.

Home sales in our part of North Carolina are also listed house by house lot by lot street by street

Maybe you just don’t know where to look?

It’s all public knowledge I could even give you the link to the Nassau County, New York database of every address in Nassau County and the sale price along with the year.

Same with Queens, County, New York

Just go to your town or County assess the website and you can look up your address
If you can’t, NAR cant
Everything is in the database someplace. One just has to know where to look.

Nassau County, New York
https://lrv.nassaucountyny.gov/

Richland County, South Carolina
https://property.spatialest.com/sc/richland#/
Example below
https://property.spatialest.com/sc/richland#/areaSales/R04111-07-04

Brunswick County North Carolina
https://tax.brunsco.net/itsnet/RealEstate.aspx

It’s all public knowledge you do not have to put house number in. A street is sufficient and you could pull up a whole block at a time
However, that’s irrelevant. The bottom line is all the data is in these sites.

If you can’t find it for your particular County, it’s just a matter of where to look for it. Obviously NAR with their massive data collection computers does this best on a nationwide basis.

In fact, they just revealed not too long ago they are moving their massive data center from California to Texas or something like that, I didn’t care to know anymore

Everyone needs to understand government is a public function and tax rules, procedures, and where those taxes are collected from and how must be disclosed.

The above is three examples, every County assesses office has a different type of system and where to find it. It’s not like doing a Google search but with some work it is there someplace.

 

[SC Maintenance]

Either does NAR if you don’t
But I bet you do. If you’re willing to disclose your county.
My former County was Richland County in South Carolina and everybody’s sale price is listed by address. In fact until they increased privacy, the amount of mortgage that the homeowners had was also publicly disclosed but now you can opt out.

Home sales in our part of North Carolina are also listed house by house lot by lot street by street

Maybe you just don’t know where to look?

It’s all public knowledge I could even give you the link to the Nassau County, New York database of every address in Nassau County and the sale price along with the year.

Same with Queens, County, New York

Just go to your town or County assess the website and you can look up your address
If you can’t, NAR cant
Everything is in the database someplace. One just has to know where to look.

Nassau County, New York
https://lrv.nassaucountyny.gov/

Richland County, South Carolina
https://property.spatialest.com/sc/richland#/
Example below
https://property.spatialest.com/sc/richland#/areaSales/R04111-07-04

Brunswick County North Carolina
https://tax.brunsco.net/itsnet/RealEstate.aspx

It’s all public knowledge you do not have to put house number in. A street is sufficient and you could pull up a whole block at a time
However, that’s irrelevant. The bottom line is all the data is in these sites.

If you can’t find it for your particular County, it’s just a matter of where to look for it. Obviously NAR with their massive data collection computers does this best on a nationwide basis.

In fact, they just revealed not too long ago they are moving their massive data center from California to Texas or something like that, I didn’t care to know anymore

Everyone needs to understand government is a public function and tax rules, procedures, and where those taxes are collected from and how must be disclosed.

The above is three examples, every County assesses office has a different type of system and where to find it. It’s not like doing a Google search but with some work it is there someplace.

There is lots of data up there. Mine says what I paid, down payment, loan amount, my attorney, my loan originator. Even my HOA fee. But there is no data regarding all the things the seller (a builder, we bought a spec home) paid, including some points to buy down my rate. My county kicks you to a private site that holds a bunch of them for SC- propertyrecs.com

 

[SC Maintenance]

Since this is the most current housing thread, I will just post some random data thats passed by fintwit. None of it is big news, but possibly interesting to some.

First, Beezer homes just released earnings - and they had a loss this past quarter. There not the biggest builder, and I think they build modest homes so one data point is meaningless. Still something to keep an eye on.

Second is while NPR / NAR say prices are rising, Case Shiller 20 city index (the 20 largest US Metro areas) has posted its 3rd straight housing price decline. Again, this is the composite of the 20 biggest metro areas, not the whole country - so I am not sure how to square that circle - but again this is just random data. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SPCS20RSA

Next, I saw a stat on Fintwit (from Darth Powell) that 40% of housing stock belongs to baby boomers while they represent 20% of the population. This makes sense of course since there oldest. However many are reaching the age where they need care, etc - so possibly they start passing housing down to the Millennials (generationally there children) and the ownership disparity self corrects?

One last comment - my interest in all of this is purely macro economic. So if were going to say house values of 6X median income, when the historical norm is 3X, is the new normal, then a) where is the money going to come from - will we buy less cars, iphone's and trips to Disney? Or, b) if not then will we see a housing price decline or an income increase, or both? Its not different this time, and you can't conjure wealth out of thin air, contrary to what TPTB seem to think. All you can do is play games and transfer wealth from one group to another.

 

[Delta]

The thing that puzzles me is, nobody settles for the smaller, easier houses to maintain. They all go for the 2,500+ sqft houses on small lots that are a small fortune.

Back in the 60's a house just like mine was all you needed.

I see a good bit of young buyers (hate to generalize, but typically Gen Z) complain they can't afford to buy a home, but I show them my simple house they go "eww no!" and then show me pictures of big houses. Got to be more realistic and within your means.

 

[alarmguy]

There is lots of data up there. Mine says what I paid, down payment, loan amount, my attorney, my loan originator. Even my HOA fee. But there is no data regarding all the things the seller (a builder, we bought a spec home) paid, including some points to buy down my rate. My county kicks you to a private site that holds a bunch of them for SC- propertyrecs.com

That is correct. The only place that information is entered is in the HUD if there is a Federal Backed Mortgage CFPB (HUD is still "Used for cash transactions, refinances, and reverse mortgages." https://rallybacks.loti.com/docs/closing-statement
Multiple Listing Service, Nothing is recorded or reported as to builder and sellers incentives or anything else. Selling commissions will be in there and anything else that is in the contracts then at the closing, if all goes well as per the contract the closing takes place and is recorded on the HUD or CFPB> Copies go to the buyer and seller. The real estate agent gets a check based on the commission agreement given to the parties ahead of time. (or any adjustments made at the closing)
NAR does not have some special data line into any information that cannot be found by the public. Sales price is the sales price and really nothing more than most even see on ZILLOW. My only reason for all these posts is your you say no one else has access to the data and NAR has this monoply and control over government data . The only data NAR has is the publicly available information. The only DATA as to seller incentives, builder incentives, commissions, are on the HUD.

NAR does not have it if it is not publicly available. Im not sure why those sources you post infer they do. With all that said they are a fantastic data mining company and best at what they do. However when an agent returns from a closing, the closing package they turn in contains the sale price and seller/buyer commissions. Those numbers get entered into the MLS system. The entire reason for that, so agencies can claim market share and close out a real estate transaction as "SOLD"

Also keep in mind not all agents in a MLS system are part of NAR. NAR is an association. Being a member requires that you conform to their rules like any association. SO let's say if a MLS system wants to be part of NAR they can no longer post selling agent commissions.
BTW- since that settlement real estate commissions have not gone down. Remember all the media reports? death of the industry? Hog Wash. Any change in commissions some slightly up, some slightly down by fractions is more the influence of the price increases in home sale prices. Since sale prices are up some agents might be ok, with a couple fractions less.
https://www.realestatenews.com/2025/02/05/commissions-rebound-following-post-settlement-decline

The legal details of anything that takes place is only on the HUD. MLS, NAR ETC does not record them here are some sources.
https://accountinginsights.org/where-can-i-find-my-hud-1-settlement-statement/

• Breaking it down by price, the average buyer’s agent commission for $1 million-plus homes has decreased to 2.17%, from 2.22%, since the rules took effect. For homes that sold for under $500,000, it has increased to 2.46%, from 2.42%. https://www.redfin.com/news/agent-commissions-expensive-affordable-q4-2024/
  
  Peace, I think we both spent enough time on this...

 

[SC Maintenance]

The thing that puzzles me is, nobody settles for the smaller, easier houses to maintain. They all go for the 2,500+ sqft houses on small lots that are a small fortune.

Back in the 60's a house just like mine was all you needed.

I see a good bit of young buyers (hate to generalize, but typically Gen Z) complain they can't afford to buy a home, but I show them my simple house they go "eww no!" and then show me pictures of big houses. Got to be more realistic and within your means.

The oldest GenZ is 25, so what do they know about anything. Coming from a father of 2 Gen Z.

I think a small house with a big yard would sell well. Thing is, here they buy that house, bulldoze it, and put up a McMansion and sell it for $700K if its in a good school district.

If you want small house your stuck with $300K townhome.

 

[alarmguy]

...

One last comment - my interest in all of this is purely macro economic. So if were going to say house values of 6X median income, when the historical norm is 3X, is the new normal, then a) where is the money going to come from - will we buy less cars, iphone's and trips to Disney? Or, b) if not then will we see a housing price decline or an income increase, or both? Its not different this time, and you can't conjure wealth out of thin air, contrary to what TPTB seem to think. All you can do is play games and transfer wealth from one group to another.

I honestly believe much of the newer generation, will not want to give up as much to buy a home as previous ones would.
They want it all, the cars, trips, iPhones, vacations. One reason I think most put off marriage and kids too.
But back to real estate. What I find troubling is the newer generation is increasingly renting and for the first time, at least in some places along the coast here I have seen small residential communities popping up where the homes are not for sale but for lease!
TO me this is dangerous but we are a free people to do as we wish. So we will have a segment of the population leasing homes their whole lives and end up with nothing. The corporations that build them end up with everything. Yet it was free choice.

Personally I think and hope (there has been talk) that hedge funds, corporations etc. should be banned from buying residential housing. Some of these companies buy up to a significant percentage of new home construction (like in Florida) I dont like companies controlling the marketplace. Something not right about that.
(see, we may actually agree on things sometimes *LOL*) I suspect you feel the same way.

 

[Delta]

The oldest GenZ is 25, so what do they know about anything. Coming from a father of 2 Gen Z.

I think a small house with a big yard would sell well. Thing is, here they buy that house, bulldoze it, and put up a McMansion and sell it for $700K if its in a good school district.

If you want small house your stuck with $300K townhome.

It was really a generalization, not meant to call out once specific gen. There's younger Millennials that are the same way. I was able to buy this place at 32, but bought within my means. I see houses like mine $275-$300K. But, they all want those "big" houses and they are $400K and up here.

Many houses just like mine are coming to market due to aging out and death. They're all in really decent shape, a little ugly inside, but people see it needs paint and general updating and they scoff at the idea. Me, I'm all for it! I snagged mine for $203K, have about $20K into it and sits on an estimated $280+/-. Was it a good bit of work? Yes. But a feel of big accomplishment. I notice younger people want that instant gratification. Maybe I'm built different...