Zillow's revised home price index forecast for 2025 increased


It is this kind of stuff, massive complexes of "luxury apartments" with businesses on the first floor.
Yep. Same stuff has been built in Atlanta for almost 20 years (condos or apartments). Most recent ones are 5 or more stories.

Below was one of the first using this concept.


These three were built a couple of years after: https://www.google.com/maps/@33.844...try=ttu&g_ep=EgoyMDI0MTExOS4yIKXMDSoASAFQAw==


 
So this popped up on my feed. Timely.

As mentioned, its still small compared to many places. So if you want this to be the new normal then so be it. However, if people are paying more to maintain a fixed asset, then they have less money for things like Disney tickets and eating out. Again, likely OK around here, but remember 70% of the US economy is services.

To put it more bluntly, if people going forward need to pay way more for housing, and other debt service like student loans, then the economy in its current form crashes, which means tax receipts crash, which means larger deficits and a lower dollar - aka inflation / stagflation.

Rock meets hard place.



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This is spot on- also why we are going to see quite the recession due to the fact normal folks are paying out the “butt” for simple life things, and are finding out they can afford little else. I can tell this is coming as the stores right now are pretty empty (even with decent deals) and I’m seeing a major slowdown of Fed Ex/ UPS / Amazon trucks around here. I think the part that bothers me most is many companies are still seeing really nice profits, and been a great year to be a shareholder .

And in January, there will be very little done to fix the problem, sadly, as we as a nation are polarized on many other issues. And this is not counting to job bloodbath in the auto industry and service industry, to follow in others in shortly after.

I am praying for all of my friends here that it will somehow get sorted out. Please be careful out there!
 
Lots of people simply can’t afford to buy a home…. even an entry level home.


That really s what scares me. If folks can barely afford to rent, how can they even afford to maintain anything?

I’ve seen folks who can not even afford rent and food, and no money for simply stuff like an oil change….
 
This is spot on- also why we are going to see quite the recession due to the fact normal folks are paying out the “butt” for simple life things, and are finding out they can afford little else. I can tell this is coming as the stores right now are pretty empty (even with decent deals) and I’m seeing a major slowdown of Fed Ex/ UPS / Amazon trucks around here. I think the part that bothers me most is many companies are still seeing really nice profits, and been a great year to be a shareholder .

And in January, there will be very little done to fix the problem, sadly, as we as a nation are polarized on many other issues. And this is not counting to job bloodbath in the auto industry and service industry, to follow in others in shortly after.

I am praying for all of my friends here that it will somehow get sorted out. Please be careful out there!
In many, many cases prices were raised-and packages shrank that were well beyond the rate of inflation. But you know-this is magically going to be fixed soon.
 
I think someone with a 2.5% mortgage might delay moving but at some point the reason for moving will take presidence. More room for family, job in new location, down sizing. You cannot wait forever for 2.5% mortgages again.

Of course no mortgage (my situation) is better than a low interest mortgage.

Definitely less stress retiring with no mortgage.

Roof just replaced. Now to set aside $$ for HVAC. They are Trane but are coming up 9 or 10 years old in 2025.
 
How do you figure that? How else will the roads get paved and plowed? School district get funded?
Roads are likely a poor example because they get funded by multiple sources. Lets just use "infrastructure"

Everyone uses infrastructure. However if you have a $1M home and I have a $100K home, do you use 10X the infrastructure? Probably not, yet you pay 10X more - simply because they have decided you can afford it. It violates the equal protections clause IMHO.

Property tax is a tax that never goes away. I pay property tax on my vehicles, or a boat or RV if I had them - whether they leave my property or not.

Property tax is simply a way to extort money from people that have no choice but to pay. Your essentially renting your property back from the government for the privilege of owning it - from a philosophical standpoint. It should be a use tax of some sort. Historically this would have been difficult to implement, but with modern tech it should not be.
 
...

Roof just replaced. Now to set aside $$ for HVAC. They are Trane but are coming up 9 or 10 years old in 2025.
Our builder supplied Heil basic units in our brand new at the time house back in 2006. Ran everyday of the year (of course the short winters are more easy) until we sold in 2022 16 years, never opened the windows in the house. 1st floor unit used gas heat, second floor unit was heat pump. 3000 sq ft home.

Anyway, they were still running strong when we sold, fully inspected by the buyers AC inspection company.
Only repairs I ever did were a condenser and contactor in each unit and one fan motor.

(maybe this will make you feel better:))
 
Roads are likely a poor example because they get funded by multiple sources. Lets just use "infrastructure"

Everyone uses infrastructure. However if you have a $1M home and I have a $100K home, do you use 10X the infrastructure? Probably not, yet you pay 10X more - simply because they have decided you can afford it. It violates the equal protections clause IMHO.

Property tax is a tax that never goes away. I pay property tax on my vehicles, or a boat or RV if I had them - whether they leave my property or not.

Property tax is simply a way to extort money from people that have no choice but to pay. Your essentially renting your property back from the government for the privilege of owning it - from a philosophical standpoint. It should be a use tax of some sort. Historically this would have been difficult to implement, but with modern tech it should not be.
I agree; I am unlikely to use half of the resources of the guy who lives in a house that was 2x the cost of mine.

Thing is, bills gotta be paid somehow.

In my state of New Hampster, we have what I think might pass as reasonable car registration cost (I never pay attention since it's not something I could somehow change)--but we don't have an income tax. Property tax is about the only way to raise income for the town. [I think towns that have public water and sewer do have surcharges for that, either metering or a flat bump in tax. Not sure, haven't lived in one.]

I should keep quiet: when I moved last time, I all but tripled the size of my house--and land. But my property tax bill went down. I live on the poor side of town--all the mansions on the lake pay the lion's share. :) Seems that a five digit property tax bill is becoming the norm in the nicer parts of the state.

Going back to your "However if you have a $1M home and I have a $100K home, do you use 10X the infrastructure" question, is this more or less a form of a progressive tax? It's not a progressive income tax but it's still some for of progressive.

It should be a use tax of some sort. Historically this would have been difficult to implement, but with modern tech it should not be.
How do you figure? Like, you get a bill if you ever call the fire dept? or a bill if you have kids in school? or you get a bill each time the sander goes by? I like the idea of a use tax when buying something (tax up front, if you can't afford the total bill then you do without) but these things have large capital costs that have to be paid first in order to have them available.
 
Thing is, bills gotta be paid somehow.

I agree, its gotta be paid, and I have no issue paying "my fair share", but why is my share more fair than the next guy, based purely on my ability to pay. Thats socialism. Last I checked there is no socialism in the constitution, USA or SC versions.

Going back to your "However if you have a $1M home and I have a $100K home, do you use 10X the infrastructure" question, is this more or less a form of a progressive tax? It's not a progressive income tax but it's still some for of progressive.

Yes progressive taxes are the problem. However of course if your rich enough there are creative loopholes to get around the progressive taxes. If your poor your tax liability is often negative. So the reality is the people in the middle get bent over, continually. When things get bad they print money, and hand it out to the rich and the poor. Again, the working class get the brunt of the inflation because they don't get the capital appreciation from the inflation, and they don't get social assistance that is indexed.

I guess this is why gold and now bitcoin are so popular. Can't tax what they can't find.


How do you figure? Like, you get a bill if you ever call the fire dept? or a bill if you have kids in school? or you get a bill each time the sander goes by? I like the idea of a use tax when buying something (tax up front, if you can't afford the total bill then you do without) but these things have large capital costs that have to be paid first in order to have them available.
Most of those could be a flat tax. ie X dollars per single family home. I agree, a sales tax or up front tax is fair - I can choose not to pay by not buying.
 
Most of those could be a flat tax. ie X dollars per single family home. I agree, a sales tax or up front tax is fair - I can choose not to pay by not buying.
Fair enough--I'm going to bow out, for fear that this might eventually break an RSP rule.
 
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