NPR reports US home prices hit all time high in June 2025

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Cut the rate and they'll crank up the housing costs as usual. Nobody wins. Seniors get screwed on their interest and young people still can't get into a new house.

The term is financial repression.

 

[Zee09]

The term is financial repression.

I talked to an Ocala realtor tonight
She said prices are already going up. I'm seeing it too... another scam...

 

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Hogwash.

Source: National Association of Realtors

There is your lying source of agenda if there ever was one.

I concur. Its really hard to get good housing data.

NAR is a complete farse. They don't record the stuff properly. For example they don't put seller paid concessions in the proper slot, which effectively lowers the selling price. So if its not recorded properly it looks like it sold for more. There was a study done by Fannie about 18 months ago that showed its off by a lot.

Case Shiller is really good, but they don't do new construction or condo's. So its only a slice of the market. Its the best data for what it is. It also takes Foreverrrrrrrr to come out. I guess thats the price of accuracy.

The BLS literally tracks everything under the sun. Owners equivalent rent is the biggest portion of CPI. You know they have housing price data. I wonder who is paying them to withhold it.

I wouldn't doubt that housing prices are still going up - but until I see a C/S report in December that tells us that, it didn't happen yet in my world.

 

[JeffKeryk]

I concur. Its really hard to get good housing data.

And real estate is all local anyways. Generalizations don't mean a thing.

 

[GON]

Supplemental but interesting chart. Key to this chart that is not captured is the mortgage interest rates in 2020 +/-.

 

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And real estate is all local anyways. Generalizations don't mean a thing.

This is absolutely true if your buying or selling a single home. But if you want accurate data for your zip code, can you get it? You can't. You only get what NAR wants you to get, which as I mentioned is not all that accurate. Even if you go look at the MLS it skips over data like seller paid for costs that are not traditional, like I mentioned. This is huge especially for new construction.

There are also other reasons to get housing data. Its a huge portion of the overall economy, the overall bond market, consumer credit, etc, etc. If I want to invest in MBS for example, I need to know where housing is going. I can go to the BLS website and find out how much just about any consumer good or service changed this month, but getting accurate picture on actual home sales price is almost impossible - at a local or national level.

 

[loneryder]

One has to define loss. Is the vast majority of loss jobs just early retirement? And how many of the loss jobs being replaced by new/ different jobs.

WDC of all places will do well regardless of national economy. I remember going to visit someone at Walter Reed late in 2009. Entire nation was in a challenging financial situation. I was blown away, greater WDC never got the message, it was still "high life" for building and everything else in WDC while much of the nation was in very noticeable financial challenges.

You are correct. I was there. But house prices did stagnate and go down. I had to drop the price of my house a good bit to sell and I was lucky I sold it.

 

[JeffKeryk]

This is absolutely true if your buying or selling a single home. But if you want accurate data for your zip code, can you get it? You can't. You only get what NAR wants you to get, which as I mentioned is not all that accurate. Even if you go look at the MLS it skips over data like seller paid for costs that are not traditional, like I mentioned. This is huge especially for new construction.

There are also other reasons to get housing data. Its a huge portion of the overall economy, the overall bond market, consumer credit, etc, etc. If I want to invest in MBS for example, I need to know where housing is going. I can go to the BLS website and find out how much just about any consumer good or service changed this month, but getting accurate picture on actual home sales price is almost impossible - at a local or national level.

I have a top notch real estate team. I get regular report trends from San Mateo up north to Watsonville to the south.
I also have a great agent for our Petaluma (wine country) house, 40 miles north of The City. Great town. American Grafitti.

For investing, I employ the Schwab Wealth Advisory. And we argue all the time... Ha!
I don't pretend to know what the experts in their own fields know. That would be silly.
I believe in respecting effort but rewarding results.

Anyways, that's what I do; there are other approaches that work for investors as well.