My prediction: Korean, Chinese, and Indian cars (not sure what order) will gain a huge market share of global cars. Mostly due to economic stagnation combined with high oil prices. Toyota will survive at a smaller scale mostly due to smaller cars and hybrid technology. American cars will continue to be fairly popular locally in USA, especially with huge government subsidies.
Next Decade
- Thread starter Nick R
- Start date
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The next decade will be:
Nobody will be able to call it at all. Think of it this way. Take yourself mentally back to the year 2000 and where the car market was at. Then see if you could have predicted where it would be at now. No way.
If this was still the year 2000, no way we would have predicted that:
-Chrysler would be on the edge of survival. In 2000 Chrysler was still looking OK, lots of minivan sales, Ram as a solid nice looking truck, etc. Now even though they have some cool looking retro cars, the quality is hit and miss and they're seen as an oddball brand. Plymouth is long gone and Dodge is left in name only.
-GM would be bankrupt and Pontiac, Saab, Hummer, Saturn, and Oldsmobile would be history.
-Toyota would become number 1 along with Japanese brands like Honda gaining increasing market share. The strange thing is that these cars became popular by riding on a well deserved reputation of rock solid reliability in their late 80's/early 90's cars. But by the time that most people finally drank the kool-aid of the inherent reliability, the quality was already slipping. The oversized bloated sedans that Toyota/Honda/Nissan builds in the US these days are NOT the same as the (300k+ miles no problem) built in Japan lean and mean models from 20 years ago.
-Trucks/SUV's would become so popular (early/mid 2000's) and then crash so hard
-The Koreans would finally come up with a respectable nameplate (Hyundai) that rivals the Japanese in quality
Nobody will be able to call it at all. Think of it this way. Take yourself mentally back to the year 2000 and where the car market was at. Then see if you could have predicted where it would be at now. No way.
If this was still the year 2000, no way we would have predicted that:
-Chrysler would be on the edge of survival. In 2000 Chrysler was still looking OK, lots of minivan sales, Ram as a solid nice looking truck, etc. Now even though they have some cool looking retro cars, the quality is hit and miss and they're seen as an oddball brand. Plymouth is long gone and Dodge is left in name only.
-GM would be bankrupt and Pontiac, Saab, Hummer, Saturn, and Oldsmobile would be history.
-Toyota would become number 1 along with Japanese brands like Honda gaining increasing market share. The strange thing is that these cars became popular by riding on a well deserved reputation of rock solid reliability in their late 80's/early 90's cars. But by the time that most people finally drank the kool-aid of the inherent reliability, the quality was already slipping. The oversized bloated sedans that Toyota/Honda/Nissan builds in the US these days are NOT the same as the (300k+ miles no problem) built in Japan lean and mean models from 20 years ago.
-Trucks/SUV's would become so popular (early/mid 2000's) and then crash so hard
-The Koreans would finally come up with a respectable nameplate (Hyundai) that rivals the Japanese in quality
Originally Posted By: ShiningArcanine
I sort things from best to worse and if there is a problem with the thing at the top of the list, I work my way down. I do not jump to the bottom because the thing next to to top item is close to it on the list. I do not think other people would either. Also, your antecote that I did not quote has nothing to do with this thread.
My anecdote has more relevance than this post has sense.
If English is not your first language then I apologize.
I sort things from best to worse and if there is a problem with the thing at the top of the list, I work my way down. I do not jump to the bottom because the thing next to to top item is close to it on the list. I do not think other people would either. Also, your antecote that I did not quote has nothing to do with this thread.
My anecdote has more relevance than this post has sense.
If English is not your first language then I apologize.
Originally Posted By: AcuraTech
The next decade will be:
Nobody will be able to call it at all. Think of it this way. Take yourself mentally back to the year 2000 and where the car market was at. Then see if you could have predicted where it would be at now. No way.
If this was still the year 2000, no way we would have predicted that:
-Chrysler would be on the edge of survival. In 2000 Chrysler was still looking OK, lots of minivan sales, Ram as a solid nice looking truck, etc. Now even though they have some cool looking retro cars, the quality is hit and miss and they're seen as an oddball brand. Plymouth is long gone and Dodge is left in name only.
Chrysler has been on the edge of survival twice before in the last 30 years. That it would be there again in the future is not a hard call. The particulars would be difficult but not the bottom line.
Quote:
-GM would be bankrupt and Pontiac, Saab, Hummer, Saturn, and Oldsmobile would be history.
Several books have been written about General Motors and Ford possibly going into bankruptcy due to legacy health care cost among other reasons. GM had all its traditional brands when it had almost 60% market share. That some had to go when in 2000 they had half that and sinking could have been predictable. Saturn never made any money,killing it was a no brainer. Hummer was always tide to gas prices and killing it could have been predictable.
Quote:
-Toyota would become number 1 along with Japanese brands like Honda gaining increasing market share. The strange thing is that these cars became popular by riding on a well deserved reputation of rock solid reliability in their late 80's/early 90's cars. But by the time that most people finally drank the kool-aid of the inherent reliability, the quality was already slipping. The oversized bloated sedans that Toyota/Honda/Nissan builds in the US these days are NOT the same as the (300k+ miles no problem) built in Japan lean and mean models from 20 years ago.
Toyota becoming #1 was part of my senior thesis in college. That the Yen was grossly undervalued vs the Dollar while the US has massive trade deficits could not be maintained forever. Any BA in Economics can tell you that. The Japanese would either have to concede market share,build in the USA or build in the Third World and import here could have also been seen. That producing outside Japan with longtime labor peace would result in lower quality could have been predicted. That auto companies will simply not surrender market share could also have been predicted. This recent recall and Toyota's image being shattered so quickly obviously could not have been predicted.
Quote:
-Trucks/SUV's would become so popular (early/mid 2000's) and then crash so hard
The particulars would be difficult to predict. But big cars when gas is cheap and small cars when gas is expensive is not. That CAFE would give a bigger and bigger breaks to Trucks and SUVS could not have been predicted. Government regulations can be very tough to predict.
Quote:
-The Koreans would finally come up with a respectable nameplate (Hyundai) that rivals the Japanese in quality
Japanese cars were Junk.Think 1969 Corolla then became better. That Koreans could do the same could also have been predictable. That they did it so quickly could not. At least I was shocked by some recent JD Powers numbers.
The next decade will be:
Nobody will be able to call it at all. Think of it this way. Take yourself mentally back to the year 2000 and where the car market was at. Then see if you could have predicted where it would be at now. No way.
If this was still the year 2000, no way we would have predicted that:
-Chrysler would be on the edge of survival. In 2000 Chrysler was still looking OK, lots of minivan sales, Ram as a solid nice looking truck, etc. Now even though they have some cool looking retro cars, the quality is hit and miss and they're seen as an oddball brand. Plymouth is long gone and Dodge is left in name only.
Chrysler has been on the edge of survival twice before in the last 30 years. That it would be there again in the future is not a hard call. The particulars would be difficult but not the bottom line.
Quote:
-GM would be bankrupt and Pontiac, Saab, Hummer, Saturn, and Oldsmobile would be history.
Several books have been written about General Motors and Ford possibly going into bankruptcy due to legacy health care cost among other reasons. GM had all its traditional brands when it had almost 60% market share. That some had to go when in 2000 they had half that and sinking could have been predictable. Saturn never made any money,killing it was a no brainer. Hummer was always tide to gas prices and killing it could have been predictable.
Quote:
-Toyota would become number 1 along with Japanese brands like Honda gaining increasing market share. The strange thing is that these cars became popular by riding on a well deserved reputation of rock solid reliability in their late 80's/early 90's cars. But by the time that most people finally drank the kool-aid of the inherent reliability, the quality was already slipping. The oversized bloated sedans that Toyota/Honda/Nissan builds in the US these days are NOT the same as the (300k+ miles no problem) built in Japan lean and mean models from 20 years ago.
Toyota becoming #1 was part of my senior thesis in college. That the Yen was grossly undervalued vs the Dollar while the US has massive trade deficits could not be maintained forever. Any BA in Economics can tell you that. The Japanese would either have to concede market share,build in the USA or build in the Third World and import here could have also been seen. That producing outside Japan with longtime labor peace would result in lower quality could have been predicted. That auto companies will simply not surrender market share could also have been predicted. This recent recall and Toyota's image being shattered so quickly obviously could not have been predicted.
Quote:
-Trucks/SUV's would become so popular (early/mid 2000's) and then crash so hard
The particulars would be difficult to predict. But big cars when gas is cheap and small cars when gas is expensive is not. That CAFE would give a bigger and bigger breaks to Trucks and SUVS could not have been predicted. Government regulations can be very tough to predict.
Quote:
-The Koreans would finally come up with a respectable nameplate (Hyundai) that rivals the Japanese in quality
Japanese cars were Junk.Think 1969 Corolla then became better. That Koreans could do the same could also have been predictable. That they did it so quickly could not. At least I was shocked by some recent JD Powers numbers.
In late 1998 gas was $.84/gallon due to a severe recession in Asia choking demand. I put some of my 401k money in a "world fund" whose managers invested 42% in the USA because Asia was underperforming.
As 1999 dragged on gas jumped to $1.55 and some pundit on tv said SUVs would become uncool if gas made it to $2.25. Remember the 1990s brought us the almighty Explorer. 2000-2010 expanded unibody SUVs and crossovers like the Pacifica.
In y2k, in my mind at least, a GM automatic V6 sedan was the end-all be-all. The IM gasket issue was showing up on the new cars but not the $2000 and under fleet. I bought a 92 cutlass ciera 3300 I was fond of. I did still think hyundai was a little rinky dink but got over that by about 2003. Hyundai's 10/100 warranty came out in 1999.
In y2k dodges were still junk, lots of A604 trannies blowing up, head gaskets on 2.2/2.5s, mitsu 3.0s burning oil. We were starting to grasp that neons blew head gaskets too, but had yet to discover the 2.7 sludger.
As 1999 dragged on gas jumped to $1.55 and some pundit on tv said SUVs would become uncool if gas made it to $2.25. Remember the 1990s brought us the almighty Explorer. 2000-2010 expanded unibody SUVs and crossovers like the Pacifica.
In y2k, in my mind at least, a GM automatic V6 sedan was the end-all be-all. The IM gasket issue was showing up on the new cars but not the $2000 and under fleet. I bought a 92 cutlass ciera 3300 I was fond of. I did still think hyundai was a little rinky dink but got over that by about 2003. Hyundai's 10/100 warranty came out in 1999.
In y2k dodges were still junk, lots of A604 trannies blowing up, head gaskets on 2.2/2.5s, mitsu 3.0s burning oil. We were starting to grasp that neons blew head gaskets too, but had yet to discover the 2.7 sludger.
And the word MOPAR will just be a word that was used years ago....
Originally Posted By: DeeAgeaux
Originally Posted By: ShiningArcanine
Toyota does not represent all japanese cars. They are just one manufacturer. The issues affecting them do not affect Honda or Nissan, so if they go down in terms of quality, the natural choice is to buy a Honda or a Nissan, not a Ford, GM or Chrysler vehicle.
Toyota carries the Flag for all Japanese Automakers since they are the biggest and most famous.
Famous for Just In Time parts manufacuture,Kaizan continuous improvement etc etc etc.
It also carries the burden of image for Japanese Quality Perfection.
If that is destroyed so it is for other Japanese OEMs.
Nissan is French owned. And relativly [censored].
Honda has its own problems with Auto transmissions and things like the all-Japanese made Honda Fit window switch shorting and causing fires. Honda problems are no where near the scale of Toyota but they have problems too.
Americans bought Japanese cars because they thought they were far superior.All else being equal most Americans would buy American. It is coming to that as we speak. I say that as a current Honda owner too.
The natural reaction is not to buy other Japanese products.It it the opposite.
I was a college student when the Berlin Wall Fell.
I was taking a class called "Germany 1945 to Present" given by a German-American professor who earned his PHD in West Germany.
He insisted that the first Free elections in East Germany would be won by Social Democrats(socialist) because the east German electorate would be more comfortable with something familiar. I insisted it would be won by Christian Democrats(Conservatives) because they would blame socialism for their problems. And vote the opposite.
He gave me a C on my final paper. History proved me correct. About 1.5 years later he whent back and changed my grade in the class from B- to an A+.
So you really think people will trade their Corolla's in for a Chevy Cobalt instead of a Honda Civic??????
That's hilarious, I think not!
Originally Posted By: ShiningArcanine
Toyota does not represent all japanese cars. They are just one manufacturer. The issues affecting them do not affect Honda or Nissan, so if they go down in terms of quality, the natural choice is to buy a Honda or a Nissan, not a Ford, GM or Chrysler vehicle.
Toyota carries the Flag for all Japanese Automakers since they are the biggest and most famous.
Famous for Just In Time parts manufacuture,Kaizan continuous improvement etc etc etc.
It also carries the burden of image for Japanese Quality Perfection.
If that is destroyed so it is for other Japanese OEMs.
Nissan is French owned. And relativly [censored].
Honda has its own problems with Auto transmissions and things like the all-Japanese made Honda Fit window switch shorting and causing fires. Honda problems are no where near the scale of Toyota but they have problems too.
Americans bought Japanese cars because they thought they were far superior.All else being equal most Americans would buy American. It is coming to that as we speak. I say that as a current Honda owner too.
The natural reaction is not to buy other Japanese products.It it the opposite.
I was a college student when the Berlin Wall Fell.
I was taking a class called "Germany 1945 to Present" given by a German-American professor who earned his PHD in West Germany.
He insisted that the first Free elections in East Germany would be won by Social Democrats(socialist) because the east German electorate would be more comfortable with something familiar. I insisted it would be won by Christian Democrats(Conservatives) because they would blame socialism for their problems. And vote the opposite.
He gave me a C on my final paper. History proved me correct. About 1.5 years later he whent back and changed my grade in the class from B- to an A+.
So you really think people will trade their Corolla's in for a Chevy Cobalt instead of a Honda Civic??????
That's hilarious, I think not!
I think that a lot of people are dreaming that wow the big three will be again because of this....But they will not....
I predict that there will still be a BITOG and it will still have members who are fanboys of ______________________ (insert brand here).
I predict that there will be verbal skirmishes on BITOG because a fanboy of _________________ (insert brand name here) insulted ___________________ (insert brand name here).
I predict that if someone asks what __________________(insert brand name here) oil brand would work for this application, he'll get 2 civil answers and then the brand war starts and the thread is lost.
I predict that if someone asks what brand of tool would be adequate for a certain job, the brand war starts and the thread is lost.
I predict that asking a question about re-seating a toilet in General and Off Topics will turn political and the thread will be locked, and 3 posters will earn "vacations" from BITOG.
I predict that someone could post a picture of a PTO driven invention that would cure cancer, swine flu, and the common cold as well as clean your septic tank and 17 people would belittle it because it's missing a PTO shaft guard.
Beyond those everything else in the automotive world is simply speculation.
I predict that there will be verbal skirmishes on BITOG because a fanboy of _________________ (insert brand name here) insulted ___________________ (insert brand name here).
I predict that if someone asks what __________________(insert brand name here) oil brand would work for this application, he'll get 2 civil answers and then the brand war starts and the thread is lost.
I predict that if someone asks what brand of tool would be adequate for a certain job, the brand war starts and the thread is lost.
I predict that asking a question about re-seating a toilet in General and Off Topics will turn political and the thread will be locked, and 3 posters will earn "vacations" from BITOG.
I predict that someone could post a picture of a PTO driven invention that would cure cancer, swine flu, and the common cold as well as clean your septic tank and 17 people would belittle it because it's missing a PTO shaft guard.
Beyond those everything else in the automotive world is simply speculation.
and people will still be using MMO....
Originally Posted By: Pop_Rivit
I predict that there will still be a BITOG and it will still have members who are fanboys of ______________________ (insert brand here).
I predict that there will be verbal skirmishes on BITOG because a fanboy of _________________ (insert brand name here) insulted ___________________ (insert brand name here).
I predict that if someone asks what __________________(insert brand name here) oil brand would work for this application, he'll get 2 civil answers and then the brand war starts and the thread is lost.
I predict that if someone asks what brand of tool would be adequate for a certain job, the brand war starts and the thread is lost.
I predict that asking a question about re-seating a toilet in General and Off Topics will turn political and the thread will be locked, and 3 posters will earn "vacations" from BITOG.
I predict that someone could post a picture of a PTO driven invention that would cure cancer, swine flu, and the common cold as well as clean your septic tank and 17 people would belittle it because it's missing a PTO shaft guard.
Beyond those everything else in the automotive world is simply speculation.
You are truly a prophet!
I predict that there will still be a BITOG and it will still have members who are fanboys of ______________________ (insert brand here).
I predict that there will be verbal skirmishes on BITOG because a fanboy of _________________ (insert brand name here) insulted ___________________ (insert brand name here).
I predict that if someone asks what __________________(insert brand name here) oil brand would work for this application, he'll get 2 civil answers and then the brand war starts and the thread is lost.
I predict that if someone asks what brand of tool would be adequate for a certain job, the brand war starts and the thread is lost.
I predict that asking a question about re-seating a toilet in General and Off Topics will turn political and the thread will be locked, and 3 posters will earn "vacations" from BITOG.
I predict that someone could post a picture of a PTO driven invention that would cure cancer, swine flu, and the common cold as well as clean your septic tank and 17 people would belittle it because it's missing a PTO shaft guard.
Beyond those everything else in the automotive world is simply speculation.
You are truly a prophet!
Originally Posted By: L_Sludger
I hope Toyota gets the mighty kick in the rear they so desperately need to start making 80s and 90s-quality products again. I don't think they currently have a car approaching the quality of my LS400.
Dont' hold your breath...after the "30% cost reduction" announcement I believe they are headed the other way.
I hope Toyota gets the mighty kick in the rear they so desperately need to start making 80s and 90s-quality products again. I don't think they currently have a car approaching the quality of my LS400.
Dont' hold your breath...after the "30% cost reduction" announcement I believe they are headed the other way.
Originally Posted By: jazeo
Originally Posted By: DeeAgeaux
Originally Posted By: ShiningArcanine
Toyota does not represent all japanese cars. They are just one manufacturer. The issues affecting them do not affect Honda or Nissan, so if they go down in terms of quality, the natural choice is to buy a Honda or a Nissan, not a Ford, GM or Chrysler vehicle.
Toyota carries the Flag for all Japanese Automakers since they are the biggest and most famous.
Famous for Just In Time parts manufacuture,Kaizan continuous improvement etc etc etc.
It also carries the burden of image for Japanese Quality Perfection.
If that is destroyed so it is for other Japanese OEMs.
Nissan is French owned. And relativly [censored].
Honda has its own problems with Auto transmissions and things like the all-Japanese made Honda Fit window switch shorting and causing fires. Honda problems are no where near the scale of Toyota but they have problems too.
Americans bought Japanese cars because they thought they were far superior.All else being equal most Americans would buy American. It is coming to that as we speak. I say that as a current Honda owner too.
The natural reaction is not to buy other Japanese products.It it the opposite.
I was a college student when the Berlin Wall Fell.
I was taking a class called "Germany 1945 to Present" given by a German-American professor who earned his PHD in West Germany.
He insisted that the first Free elections in East Germany would be won by Social Democrats(socialist) because the east German electorate would be more comfortable with something familiar. I insisted it would be won by Christian Democrats(Conservatives) because they would blame socialism for their problems. And vote the opposite.
He gave me a C on my final paper. History proved me correct. About 1.5 years later he whent back and changed my grade in the class from B- to an A+.
So you really think people will trade their Corolla's in for a Chevy Cobalt instead of a Honda Civic??????
That's hilarious, I think not!
For a Ford Fusion? I think so.
Originally Posted By: DeeAgeaux
Originally Posted By: ShiningArcanine
Toyota does not represent all japanese cars. They are just one manufacturer. The issues affecting them do not affect Honda or Nissan, so if they go down in terms of quality, the natural choice is to buy a Honda or a Nissan, not a Ford, GM or Chrysler vehicle.
Toyota carries the Flag for all Japanese Automakers since they are the biggest and most famous.
Famous for Just In Time parts manufacuture,Kaizan continuous improvement etc etc etc.
It also carries the burden of image for Japanese Quality Perfection.
If that is destroyed so it is for other Japanese OEMs.
Nissan is French owned. And relativly [censored].
Honda has its own problems with Auto transmissions and things like the all-Japanese made Honda Fit window switch shorting and causing fires. Honda problems are no where near the scale of Toyota but they have problems too.
Americans bought Japanese cars because they thought they were far superior.All else being equal most Americans would buy American. It is coming to that as we speak. I say that as a current Honda owner too.
The natural reaction is not to buy other Japanese products.It it the opposite.
I was a college student when the Berlin Wall Fell.
I was taking a class called "Germany 1945 to Present" given by a German-American professor who earned his PHD in West Germany.
He insisted that the first Free elections in East Germany would be won by Social Democrats(socialist) because the east German electorate would be more comfortable with something familiar. I insisted it would be won by Christian Democrats(Conservatives) because they would blame socialism for their problems. And vote the opposite.
He gave me a C on my final paper. History proved me correct. About 1.5 years later he whent back and changed my grade in the class from B- to an A+.
So you really think people will trade their Corolla's in for a Chevy Cobalt instead of a Honda Civic??????
That's hilarious, I think not!
For a Ford Fusion? I think so.
And the word will still be.... Fix Or Repair Daily....
Originally Posted By: rszappa1
And the word will still be.... Fix Or Repair Daily....
And in the next decade we will have very ignorant posters [just like this one] still posting complete 100% nonsense.
And the word will still be.... Fix Or Repair Daily....
And in the next decade we will have very ignorant posters [just like this one] still posting complete 100% nonsense.
Originally Posted By: rszappa1
And the word will still be.... Fix Or Repair Daily....
Sorry, but if you look at the warranty numbers on the Ford Fusion...they are the lowest of all vehicles in their class worldwide. The numbers don't lie. The Fusion is the highest initial quality in it's class based on the numner of actual in service warranty repairs. Call any Ford dealer service department if you don't believe me. The will tell you that very few Fusions come back.
And the word will still be.... Fix Or Repair Daily....
Sorry, but if you look at the warranty numbers on the Ford Fusion...they are the lowest of all vehicles in their class worldwide. The numbers don't lie. The Fusion is the highest initial quality in it's class based on the numner of actual in service warranty repairs. Call any Ford dealer service department if you don't believe me. The will tell you that very few Fusions come back.
Originally Posted By: FORD4LIFE
Originally Posted By: rszappa1
And the word will still be.... Fix Or Repair Daily....
And in the next decade we will have very ignorant posters [just like this one] still posting complete 100% nonsense.
+1
Originally Posted By: rszappa1
And the word will still be.... Fix Or Repair Daily....
And in the next decade we will have very ignorant posters [just like this one] still posting complete 100% nonsense.
+1
Next 10 years:
Increasing the electrification of the automobile.
Increasing the electrification of the automobile.
Originally Posted By: rszappa1
And the word will still be.... Fix Or Repair Daily....
That's a real original one you got there, I have never heard of that! I will be sure to tell that to everyone I run into! How lucky we are to have someone so creative on this board!
And the word will still be.... Fix Or Repair Daily....
That's a real original one you got there, I have never heard of that! I will be sure to tell that to everyone I run into! How lucky we are to have someone so creative on this board!
There will be problems with Ford a major recall on the gas pedals.... problem is that when you press it nothing happens......Official Response from Ford will be.....Thats normal they all do that........
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