Next Decade

[Paul56]

-Public transit will greatly improve over the services we have now.

-In a coordinated effort to get people off the roads and into public transit... WAH will be encouraged where possible. WAH - work at home.

-The vast majority of people will have very small hybrid or electric vehicles for scooting around town.

Which companies will survive? ...it really doesn't matter who survives as long as the technology keeps moving ahead and vehicles become more efficient, safe and reliable.

Driving around for fun will be frowned upon... just like drinking and driving is frowned upon today.

 

[PT1]

Originally Posted By: LS2JSTS
I thought the world ended in 2012????


LOL...the lease on my 4 Runner runs out 12/19/2012...guess I'll just drop it off and walk home

 

[L_Sludger]

I hope Toyota gets the mighty kick in the rear they so desperately need to start making 80s and 90s-quality products again. I don't think they currently have a car approaching the quality of my LS400.

 

[L_Sludger]

Originally Posted By: rudolphna


While that sounds great....It is also depressing, because some of us LIKE and ENJOY driving our cars.

By then, computers and virtual reality will be so advanced that people could do all kinds of things a lot more stimulating than driving.

 

[dishdude]

Originally Posted By: LT4 Vette
Top 3 will be....

Ford, Toyota and Honda


Honda is too conservative to expand it's line up to a point where it will be the size of Ford/Toyota.

I think GM will be fine, Ford, Toyota, Honda will grow at average rates. Hyundai/Kia will be the big growers in the next decade. Hyundai is modeling Toyota and will have three divisions, a luxury division, the mainstream "Hyundai" division and Kia will be the Scion youth and entry level division.

 

[Paul56]

Originally Posted By: L_Sludger
Originally Posted By: rudolphna


While that sounds great....It is also depressing, because some of us LIKE and ENJOY driving our cars.

By then, computers and virtual reality will be so advanced that people could do all kinds of things a lot more stimulating than driving.


I do that right now.

 

[DeeAgeaux]

GM debt has been severly reduced. Ford is up to its eyeballs in debt.

GM has a much better deal with UAW struck in bankruptcy than Ford.

GM will repay its "loan" portion of the bailout to the US,Canadian,and Ontario governments by next fall.

GM will have an IPO by the end of 2012 and governments with an equity stake in GM will recover their other bailout monies and make a small profit.

GM will continue to lead domestic automakers in technology and design as it historically has and Ford will continue to follow as it has for 80 years.

In 10 years GM will have at least 27% market share in the US Ford will have no more than 25%.

Chrysler will have no more than 5% market share.

Hyundai will replace Toyota as top import brand.

Despite decades of subpar cars domestic OEMs kept market share becuase patriotic Americans desperatly wanted to buy American.

They will cut Toyota no such slack. A few baby boomer hippies will, but not the vast majority of the market.

GM will replace Toyota as top automaker in the world.

VW will stagnate along with European population growth; never a big player but will challeng Chrysler for market share in the US.

A stagnant world economy and Iraqi oil coming back to world markets at prewar levels will depress world oil prices.

Regardless of hybrids enviromental impact government will force hybrids down our and OEM's throats whether we like it or not. Energy independence and not funding foreign despots will also boost the role of hybrids.

 

[Herz]

Originally Posted By: rudolphna
Originally Posted By: JimPghPA
ALL vehicles will be DRIVEN BY COMPUTER. There will be NO steering wheel or any other human mechanical control. Vehicles will not have bumpers, airbags, impact areas, or any other safety device that adds any significant weight or cost because vehicles will NEVER get into any accident. Insurance will not be required because vehicles never crash. There will be no traffic lights because vehicles will regulate speed and timing to allow them to go through intersections in all directions missing other vehicles by less than one foot and no one will think anything of it because they never hit. Travel time will be equal to what it would now take you a 3 AM because traffic will flow like there were no other vehicles. Vehicles will sense tire conditions and other vehicle mechanical limits and will adjust maximum speed to within the vehicles capability and the current weather condition. Vehicles will take themselves to service areas when required while you are not using them.

You will be able to sleep, or do office work, or be educated, or many other home computer type functions while the vehicle takes you to your destination.

Yearly death rate from vehicle accidents in the United States will drop from the current 37,000 to 43,000 deaths per year to less than 100 and most of those will be from unforeseeable things like a bridge collapse, or a land slid. World wide death rate from vehicle accidents will drop form the current 1.2 million per year to less than 10,000, and in the following decade they will continue to drop as the less developed countries improve their roads.

A drivers license will not be required to operate a vehicle. And the minimum age for the person in charge of the vehicle destination will be something like 6 years old.

Vehicles windows might become optional, and if the vehicle does have window(s) it might be able to turn opaque or be blocked by a blind.

All this might take more than 10 years before it goes into effect but by the end of the next decade it will be well on its way. The current yearly death rate will drive it. Imagine if now the US were in a war with 100 times the current death rate our military endures. When it is realized that the current yearly vehicle death rate does not have to be anywhere near as high, the cry for computer driven vehicles will be several times what the demand to get out of Vietnam was if movement in that direction is stalled.


While that sounds great....It is also depressing, because some of us LIKE and ENJOY driving our cars.


I'll ride a bike before I allow a machine to drive me and controll my speed, my turning, my best route. Screw that I'll drive my cars not let them drive me.

I beleive toyota will take a blow from the recalls but not a huge one
Ford will take top automaker in the world
GM will (hopefully) be a private company again and survive
Chrysler will die

 

[aquariuscsm]

Toyota needs to bring back the Supra!!!!! :^)

 

[Nick R]

Originally Posted By: aquariuscsm
Toyota needs to bring back the Supra!!!!! :^)


The current toyota is too boring and conservative to bring back the supra.

 

[Herz]

I'd like to clarify that the only chrysler brand that will survive is Jeep

 

[silverrat]

Originally Posted By: rudolphna
Originally Posted By: aquariuscsm
Toyota needs to bring back the Supra!!!!! :^)


The current toyota is too boring and conservative to bring back the supra.


Check out Ft-86

 

[eljefino]

Cash-strapped states will continue raising registration fees. Enterprising, competing states will invent the 3-day getaway in a hotel room that proves residency and allows a years' worth of registrations, in the manner of Nevada's "quickie divorce".

Economy cars will keep getting heavier and uglier (taller, skinnier). Emissions rules aimed at NOx will keep their gas mileage down. SUVs will keep getting chintzier. Chrysler/Fiat will survive based solely on euro styling.

The trend of stupidly huge rims and tires on mainstream cars/trucks will finally end simply because of their high prices.

Lobbyists will try to get regions without emissions testing to require a periodic OBD-II scan, dangling highway funds in the balance. Dealer repair shops will salivate over the forced diagnostic work.

 

[L_Sludger]

Originally Posted By: silverrat
Originally Posted By: rudolphna
Originally Posted By: aquariuscsm
Toyota needs to bring back the Supra!!!!! :^)


The current toyota is too boring and conservative to bring back the supra.


Check out Ft-86

If that's a Supra, then I'm a reindeer.

 

[DeeAgeaux]

Originally Posted By: L_Sludger
Originally Posted By: silverrat
Originally Posted By: rudolphna
Originally Posted By: aquariuscsm
Toyota needs to bring back the Supra!!!!! :^)


The current toyota is too boring and conservative to bring back the supra.


Check out Ft-86

If that's a Supra, then I'm a reindeer.


They are considering nameing the FT-86 Celica.

Even though it is RWD. It will be in that price range.

 

[ShiningArcanine]

Originally Posted By: rudolphna
Please try to keep this bash free, so it can stay open. I will make a herculean effort to be fair and nice. Anyway, what do you think is going to happen in the next decade in the world of autos?





I think in the next decade we are going to see a massive shift in the buying habits. I think Over the next few years Toyota is going to become the way GM has been for years, though maybe not quite to the extreme. People will start realizing that maybe Japanese cars aren't all they are cracked up to be (ie not gods in car form), and might start shifting back to the new GM, and Ford. I think Chrysler will be like Hyundai. Not so great, but suddenly will come up in quality, and start bringing innovation and quality back to the line up. Fiat is going to shake things up, a bit. If they have decent reliability, I think Alfa Romeos when they get here, might give Lexus, BMW, Cadillac a run for their money. This is my opinion on this, anyway.


Toyota does not represent all japanese cars. They are just one manufacturer. The issues affecting them do not affect Honda or Nissan, so if they go down in terms of quality, the natural choice is to buy a Honda or a Nissan, not a Ford, GM or Chrysler vehicle.

 

[DeeAgeaux]

Originally Posted By: ShiningArcanine


Toyota does not represent all japanese cars. They are just one manufacturer. The issues affecting them do not affect Honda or Nissan, so if they go down in terms of quality, the natural choice is to buy a Honda or a Nissan, not a Ford, GM or Chrysler vehicle.


Toyota carries the Flag for all Japanese Automakers since they are the biggest and most famous.

Famous for Just In Time parts manufacuture,Kaizan continuous improvement etc etc etc.

It also carries the burden of image for Japanese Quality Perfection.

If that is destroyed so it is for other Japanese OEMs.

Nissan is French owned. And relativly [censored].

Honda has its own problems with Auto transmissions and things like the all-Japanese made Honda Fit window switch shorting and causing fires. Honda problems are no where near the scale of Toyota but they have problems too.

Americans bought Japanese cars because they thought they were far superior.All else being equal most Americans would buy American. It is coming to that as we speak. I say that as a current Honda owner too.

The natural reaction is not to buy other Japanese products.It it the opposite.



I was a college student when the Berlin Wall Fell.

I was taking a class called "Germany 1945 to Present" given by a German-American professor who earned his PHD in West Germany.

He insisted that the first Free elections in East Germany would be won by Social Democrats(socialist) because the east German electorate would be more comfortable with something familiar. I insisted it would be won by Christian Democrats(Conservatives) because they would blame socialism for their problems. And vote the opposite.

He gave me a C on my final paper. History proved me correct. About 1.5 years later he whent back and changed my grade in the class from B- to an A+.

 

[FL-400S]

I didnt read this thread word for word so I may be repeating this, but this will be the decade of Chinese cars. They will probably ride like 1970's hondas and toyotas and be deathtraps, but will cost $4000 new.

 

[DeeAgeaux]

Originally Posted By: FL-400S
I didnt read this thread word for word so I may be repeating this, but this will be the decade of Chinese cars. They will probably ride like 1970's hondas and toyotas and be deathtraps, but will cost $4000 new.


Tata is saying their Nano that sells for $22OO in India will cost about $8000 in the US after it meets all US legal requirements.

Chinese cars are at least 20 years away from making a real impact in the US auto market.

Chery will come here in 2 or 3 years but will not have more than a tiny amount of sales.

 

[ShiningArcanine]

Originally Posted By: DeeAgeaux
Originally Posted By: ShiningArcanine


Toyota does not represent all japanese cars. They are just one manufacturer. The issues affecting them do not affect Honda or Nissan, so if they go down in terms of quality, the natural choice is to buy a Honda or a Nissan, not a Ford, GM or Chrysler vehicle.


Toyota carries the Flag for all Japanese Automakers since they are the biggest and most famous.

Famous for Just In Time parts manufacuture,Kaizan continuous improvement etc etc etc.

It also carries the burden of image for Japanese Quality Perfection.

If that is destroyed so it is for other Japanese OEMs.

Nissan is French owned. And relativly [censored].

Honda has its own problems with Auto transmissions and things like the all-Japanese made Honda Fit window switch shorting and causing fires. Honda problems are no where near the scale of Toyota but they have problems too.

Americans bought Japanese cars because they thought they were far superior.All else being equal most Americans would buy American. It is coming to that as we speak. I say that as a current Honda owner too.

The natural reaction is not to buy other Japanese products.It it the opposite.


I sort things from best to worse and if there is a problem with the thing at the top of the list, I work my way down. I do not jump to the bottom because the thing next to to top item is close to it on the list. I do not think other people would either. Also, your antecote that I did not quote has nothing to do with this thread.