Most reliable weather forecast?

[Virtus_Probi]

I'd find a local station for a major network in the area you are visiting and check their website.
I used to like Weather Underground years ago, but they changed dramatically and I find them to be pretty useless now.

 

[opus1]

Can't help you in Florida, but in Illinois, especially around Chicago, use this source: http://www.illinoisstormchasers.com/

They seem to be the most accurate source, even more than the TV channels. There have been several cases where the main channels were predicting gloom and doom, these guys said very little chance of any bad weather to worry about, and they were right. IIRC, they were the only forecasters that correctly called the tornado outbreak in Illinois on November 17, 2013.

 

[bbhero]

Candidly I do think the National Weather Service does a good job...

I also think there can be a A team and a B team on their staff at times...

In my area the A team does a very, very good job..

The B team not so much...

Examples... In January 2016 snow storm in my area.. B team had my temperature at 41° F for that Saturday... And the same EXACT to for Grandy NC 80 miles to my southeast... Made 0 and I mean 0 sense to me... Why?? The 850 Mb forecast temp was only around 0°F at anytime that day on Saturday... Extrapolated down to the surface... Likely at best 34-36°F... A foolish forecast... The A team came and did revise it to 36°F for Saturday.. Has it worked out... Actual high temp was at 1201 that am midnight... Temp 33°F. Rain at the time I was leaving work now at 1245 in am. 33°F. Then at 115 am it started mixing with sleet... Then snow and sleet... Temp fell to 31°F. Wind shifted from northeast to northwest... That am... 30°F. Then snow flurries that became light snow the moderate snow.... Temps falling to 24°F by 345 pm... So... B team off quite a lot... Even the A team was off... But far far better than the B team forecast. Weather condition forecast was far closer for the A team vs the B team has well.

This past winter.... The A team was almost slot on every snowstorm forecast... And it was not always the easiest for them. Of interesting note... The blizzard in January 2018... There was a very heavy area of snow just east of Richmond and Petersburg not forecast by anyone... 7-10 inches... What happened?? The backside of the storm set up a strong area of convergence in that area... Higher snow to liquid ratios led to higher totals as well... I'd bet the rain to snow ratio there was 15:1 or even a bit higher. Thus between that factor and the convergence in that area at the 850 Mb and 925 Mb level led to a higher total there then thought possible. Steep gradient was present in areas in those cities and areas only 15 miles eastward. 3-4 inches in Richmond and Petersburg... And 7 to 10 in eastern Hanover county.l, Hopewell and Prince George county. My area got 7.5 inches... There was the possibility of a sharp cutoff event with that system. In essence there was... Only in a different way.


That's why I am glad I can read the models for myself... The GFS and NAM models I look at give me a pretty good idea what to expect. I wish I could see the European model.. But that is only for those in the know... But I glean what it says from forecast discussions from local NWS offices..

One thing... Always look outside the box... Models are only a tool. Helpful yes. Only tool ?? Absolutely not. The University of St Louis has a great matrix which looks at past upper level atmosphere set ups and it uses that to predict what may happen... Aka climatology. That does matter a fair amount as well. I have my own observation and experiences to add to that... Thus why I sometimes deviate from even the local NWS forecast. Or... I actually look at the models and can figure from them what will happen.. like December 2010 day after Christmas snowstorm.. I did my own mathematical calculations to figure my area and areas in southeast Va would see 8-12 of snow with 14 or 15 inches possible in some places. At that very time local NWS forecast was 4-6... I told my co workers at the hospital what I thought... And
at 330 pm Charlynn was like that's not what Channel 10 or anyone is saying... I told her I don't care they are saying.. well guess what ?? At 620 pm they changed it to 6-10 inches... Well... We got 10 inches at my hometown... Newport news got 12-14 inches... Norfolk got 14.6 inches... The 3rd biggest storm recorded at Norfolk. I knew what I had done with my math and conversion... It was based upon the models which clearly showed it at the 0600 am and 1200 model runs on December 25th.. So, I'm glad I can understand those models and can figure out what is going on.

Key thing of note has well.... Models do not factor in some parts of storms well...

Example.. this year's big NY snow that was unexpected... Models are almost always not the best at predicting upglide snow... How soon it starts out ahead of the main low pressure and how heavy that can be has well... In the event just several weeks ago that caught everyone including the models off guard.. NY saw over 6 inches when hardly any was forecasted.. Some places got near 9 inches.

That system really surprised them a whole, whole lot... Did not help that all kinds of people went out onto the roads with snow coming down really heavy.. roads were totally blocked by accidents. Cars heat melting the surface... Then refreezing.. caused a lot of accidents. And people were stuck for hours and hours... It goes to show models have weaknesses. And this is one of the main ones I see routinely.
In other words... Try to keep your vehicle near full with gas in the winter... It could help you more than you might know in a event where you are stuck for 8-24 hrs in your vehicle during a crazy, unexpected event. Keep nonperishable snacks in your car too and a pack of water... Even 1-2 inches of snow can cause a severe event with traffic being totally stopped for 8-24 plus hours. Same dynamics in play there as what happened in NY.
Heavy snow... Headed towards rushour... People see snow... Triggers all of them to leave work at the same time.... Cars go out onto snow covered roads.... Heat from cars and trucks cause a slight melting of snow... Temps though are 30°F or colder cause that to refreeze.. which in turn means it basically is turned into freezing rain type event to try to drive in... Accidents happen a whole whole lot... Everyone stuck for long long long periods of time.... This type event has happened in my area in January 2000... 600 accidents in 2 hrs... All interstates tirned into parking lot.. Same type of event happened in Raleigh NC in January 2005... Took people 8-14 hrs for people to get home during that event... Happened in Atlanta in 2015.... Cars left abandoned and people stranded for hours and hours... Cars and trucks ran out of gas.. left behind.

So... Keep you car gassed up... Have nonperishable snacks in there... And keep water in there too... And most importantly... Pay attention to what is going on. Look at radar... And don't follow the crowd. Don't get super excited either... Just staying where you are sometimes could be the best way to go. Thus avoiding any trouble to begin with.

 

[Patman]

Originally Posted by bbhero
Candidly I do think the National Weather Service does a good job...

I also think there can be a A team and a B team on their staff at times...

In my area the A team does a very, very good job..

The B team not so much...


This raises an interesting point because the answer to my original question could be muddied based on the fact that each of these weather reporting services must have hundreds of meteorologists interpreting all this data for literally hundreds of cities, so the accuracy of the predictions will be dependent on the skill level of the person that is assigned to that particular city that particular day. I wonder if the same people always do the same cities, or if they change it up too?

 

[Garak]

As an aside, Patman, I don't know how it is in your neck of the woods, but the Weather Network here can have three different forecasts and current conditions at the same time when comparing the TV download, the web site, and on a phone. I just love that.

 

[Patman]

^^ I haven't noticed that here, but I never watch TWN on TV anymore, and it appears that my mobile app and the internet site are always in agreement.

As an aside, the Weather Network says the weather in Fort Myers will be mainly sunny on both Saturday and Monday, so it's the most optimistic for this upcoming weekend, since quite a few say that it's going to be mainly cloudy on Monday. It's in agreement with everyone else that Sunday is going to suck (thunderstorms and basically no sun at all that day) I just don't know how accurate a Canadian weather site can be when it comes to forecasting other cities. How much time do they really devote to analyzing the data for cities outside of Canada?

 

[grampi]

You can get your forecasts from the NWS, or you can get them from one of the others that get their info from NWS and then add their own twist to it...

 

[Patman]

Originally Posted by grampi
You can get your forecasts from the NWS, or you can get them from one of the others that get their info from NWS and then add their own twist to it...


True, but even though they all get their data from the same place, it's how they interpret that data that makes the difference.

 

[Duffyjr]

The AG show I watch sometimes when I'm up early enough is the most honest, they never give more that what's going to happen today and tomorrow, I like that they don't pretend or guess at the weather 3 days from now. What they do is tell you over the next 30 or 90 days if your area will have above, below or normal temps and rain and snow fall.

Besides that I check three different apps by zip code (MyRadar, yahoo, weather channel) and they are all different all the time.

 

[Patman]

Originally Posted by Duffyjr
The AG show I watch sometimes when I'm up early enough is the most honest, they never give more that what's going to happen today and tomorrow, I like that they don't pretend or guess at the weather 3 days from now.


I think it's ridiculous that Accuweather gives a forecast for 2-3 months in advance. What is their reasoning behind this? You can't possibly rely on that forecast and make plans based off it. For instance, as soon as I booked this trip to Fort Myers many weeks ago I started checking that long term forecast just for fun, knowing that I would see the forecast change many times as the time got closer to this weekend. And it sure did! In my experience even the 14 day forecast is a joke, days 8-14 are rarely ever correct. One day I'll check it for my area and they'll call for 20cm of snow on day 13, but then the next day when I check it again it'll say 0cm. So it gets people all worked up for nothing, they can never forecast a big storm that far out.