Malaysia Airlines 777 loses contact...not found

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I'm surprised that CPDLC was disabled. It's a newer system and cannot be switched off without disabling the FMS, (flight management system) The IRS (inertial reference system) GPS and so on. And, of course, without IRS, GPS + FMS, navigation would be much more difficult. Nearly impossible over open water.

CPDLC, (controller-pilot data link communications) is a system that provides text messaging (via multiple means, often VHF radio, Inmarsat and Iridium) of aircraft position information and navigational info/flightplans etc. It's not just a "BOX" that you can shut off. It's a software feature of an integrated avionics system.

CPDLC has nothing to do with a transponder
 
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Originally Posted By: SteveSRT8
Originally Posted By: Hokiefyd
I always appreciate Astro's posts; I learn something every time I read one.

I didn't know that RR names their engines after rivers...and I also didn't know that they still OWN the engines, and just lease them to the airlines or aircraft manufacturer. Question: what benefit does RR have to maintain ownership of these and lease them out? And I suppose that it's the airline itself (Malaysia) that is the "owner" of the lease, and not the aircraft manufacturer (Boeing), right?


RR does the lease to protect their developmental rights. They want to know exactly how they are used and how they fail.

This is a good story, obviously stinky now, but we just may never know...


And if its like the aeroderivative GTGs we use on our Navy ships - ensures that blades and vanes can be reused as good spares so they don't have to go pay $10k a piece... Like some users do...
 
We all know they were abducted by space aliens from Albuquerque. What do have against ham and cheese sandwiches anyway?
lol.gif
 
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Originally Posted By: dave1251
Originally Posted By: Ramblejam
Some reading for those of you who want to avoid the baseless conspiracy theories: https://plus.google.com/106271056358366282907/posts/GoeVjHJaGBz


Thank you. But how does this explain the report that the plane was doing tactical maneuvers evading RADAR?

Originally Posted By: Drew99GT
Originally Posted By: Ramblejam
Some reading for those of you who want to avoid the baseless conspiracy theories: https://plus.google.com/106271056358366282907/posts/GoeVjHJaGBz


Good theory, but it's made without new knowledge of the satellite pings the plane made. unless that is bogus info. It seems to be generally accepted that the plane was making "pings" 7 hours after it took off. If it landed at that airport, it would be known; if it crashed, it likely wouldn't have made those satellite communications.

Originally Posted By: dishdude
Originally Posted By: Ramblejam
Some reading for those of you who want to avoid the baseless conspiracy theories: https://plus.google.com/106271056358366282907/posts/GoeVjHJaGBz


That theory makes a lot of sense, however didn't the pilot signoff and say goodnight after the power to the transponder was lost? In the event of an electrical malfunction, it would be odd that systems would start to lose power and not be noticeable.


"I wrote this post before the information regarding the engines continuing to run for approximately six hours and the fact it seems acars was shut down before the transponder.

The continued speculation of hijack and/or murder suicide and the latest this morning that there was a flight engineer on board that is being investigated does not do much to sway me in favour of foul play until I am presented with evidence of foul play.

My post received a lot of comments on Reddit as well if some of you wish to read those. www.reddit.com MH370.

Now let me deal with Diego's request for my present view in light of new evidence.

We know there was a last voice transmission that from a pilot's point of view (POV) was entirely normal. The good night is customary on a hand -off to a new ATC control. The good night also indicates STRONGLY to me all was OK on the flight deck. Remember there are many ways a pilot can communicate distress - the hijack code or even a transponder code different by one digit from assigned would alert ATC that something was wrong. Every good pilot knows keying an SOS over the mike is always an option even three short clicks would raise an alert.

So I conclude at that point of voice transmission all was perceived as well on the flight deck by the pilots.

But things could have been in the process of going wrong unknown to the pilots - Evidently the ACARS went inoperative some time before. Disabling the ACARS is not easy as pointed out. This leads me to believe more in an electric or electric fire issue than a manual shutdown. I suggest the pilots were probably not aware it was not transmitting.

The next event is the turn to the SW in what appears direct Langkawi. As I said in the first post the pilot probably had this in his head already. Someone said why didn't he go to KBR on north coast of Malaysia which was closer. That's a 6,000 foot runway and to put that plane down on a 6,000 foot strip at night uncertain of your aircraft's entire systems is not an option. I would expect the pilot would consider ditching before a 6,000 runway if still above maximum landing weight which he likely was. The safest runway in the region to make the approach was certainly Langkawi - no obstacles over water with a long flat approach. In my humble opinion this 18,000 hour pilot knew this instinctively.

Reports of altitude fluctuations. Well given that this was not transponder generated data but primary radar at maybe 200 miles the azimuth readings can be affected by a lot of atmospherics and I would not have high confidence in this being totally reliable. But let's accept for a minute he might have ascended to 45,000 in a last ditch effort to quell a fire by seeking the lowest level of oxygen. It is an acceptable scenario in my opinion. At 45,000 it would be tough to keep this aircraft stable as the flight envelope is very narrow and loss of control in a stall is entirely possible. The aircraft is at the top of its operational ceiling. The reported rapid rates of descent could have been generated by a stall and recovery at 25,000. The pilot may even have been diving the aircraft to extinguish flames. All entirely possible.

But going to 45,000 in a hijack scenario doesn't make any good sense to me.

The question of the time the plane flew on.

On departing Kuala he would have had fuel for Beijing and alternate probably Shanghai and 45 minutes. Say 8 hours. Maybe more. He burned 20-25% in first hour with takeoff, climb to cruise. So when the turn was made towards Langkawi he would have had six hours or more. This correlates nicely with the immarsat data pings being received until fuel exhaustion.

The apparent now known continued flight until TTFE time to fuel exhaustion only actually confirms to me the crew were incapacitated and the flight continued on deep into the south Indian ocean.

There really is no point in speculating further until more evidence surfaces but in the meantime it serves no purpose to malign the pilots who well may have been in an heroic struggle to save this aircraft from a fire or other serious mechanical issue and were overcome.

I hope the investigation team looks at the maintenance records of the front gear tires - cycles, last pressure check and maintenance inspection. Captain or F/O as part of pre-flight looks at tires. Is there any video at the airport to support pre-flight walkaround? Any damage on pushback? A day after I wrote the original post a plane in the U.S. blew a tire in takeoff and the t/o was fortunately aborted with a burning tire.

Hopefully - and I believe now it is a slim hope - the wreckage will be found and the FDR and VDR will be recovered and provide us with insight. Until facts prove otherwise, I would give the Captain the benefit of respect and professional courtesy."

https://plus.google.com/app/basic/stream/z13cv1gohsmbv5jmy221vrfyiz3vdhbop04
 
I saw this posted on PPrune.org:

Quote:
RE: "Close to IGARI something went terribly wrong, probably leading to or including severe hypoxia for most souls on board. After things calmed down somebody felt it was not a good idea to go home with this mess on board. So he/she decided to hide the mess. Set a flightpath that doesn't touch land again and select south pole as final destination.
One tends to think this was carefully staged, but maybe it was just pure chaos, and in the end somebody decided that the rest of the world better shouldn't know."

...filling in the blanks...?
a) Captn that flies 10-12 hours a week has daydreamed often in his spare time, or on his FSim, ways to steal a plane, hide one, avoid radar, just general idle no harm intended fantasy. But details exist in mind!
b) Long day in court till 9PM, only to see his idolized opposition leader Ibrahim sent away when the acquital has been overturned by zealous current government
c) [censored], got to fly the red-eye, and with that [censored] kid who is son of one of those zealot leaders. Oh, and the wife is suing for alimony too. Great!
d) well off we go, wild blue yonder, but if the kid says another word about Ibrahim being a [censored] sodomist who gets what he deserved i am going to slap him!
e) slap slap, big mouth, oh he slaps back. well take that kid, ooops, what is he faking? knocked out? dead? OOPS.
f) chaos, what to do now. Antarctica? what about my plane stealing scene. Or just go to jail, spend eternity in [censored] solo.
g) etc.

I am not serious, of course, right?
 
I think the pilot was obviously a very fervent supporter of this opposition leader and apparently even attended the trial of this opposition leader BEFORE HE WAS SUPPOSED TO MAKE A LONG FLIGHT TO CHINA and he should have been sleeping. He was upset about the opposition leader being sentenced to prison. And there are reports, I don't know how accurate, about his family leaving. I think he probably wanted to make a statement.

Was the co-pilot involved? I don't know. The pilot might have killed the co-pilot with a weapon that could have been smuggled into the cockpit.

Instead of just diving the aircraft into the sea I think the pilot wanted to make it a deep mystery. After all, if this disappearance of an airliner becomes the biggest mystery in the history of aviation the pilot will manage to get his message out-right? If the aircraft had just been dived into the sea it would not have become the profound mystery that it has become.

So he flies the airliner as far as he can into the southern Indian Ocean.

Jut my thinking about what may have happened.
 
Originally Posted By: Vikas
Aren't we always supposed to blame it on muslims?


Well...if you insist....but the ham sandwich comment was funny
lol.gif
 
Originally Posted By: antiqueshell
The plane has a range as far as....Kazakhstan,
interesting because this is the current modern home of
many Ashkanazi jews. Lots of Mossad activity there.


So the Jews want the Muslims to hijack the Chinese and steal a plane?
confused2.gif
confused2.gif
 
Originally Posted By: Vikas
Has anybody realized that both the pilots have muslim names? Am I the first one to point this out here?

Malaysia Malays are by default muslim.

The other major race are Chinese and Indians.
However, they are generally viewed as second class citizens.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bumiputera_%28Malaysia%29
 
Israel is stepping up their Air Defense Systems.

So, something's gotta be going on...
 
“My guess is based upon the stolen passports, and I believe Iran was involved [in the disappearance of the plane],” Issac Yeffet, formerly a global security expert for Israel’s national airline El Al told today’s Times of Israel. “They hijacked the aircraft and they landed it in a place that nobody can see or find it.”

Fox News
 
I think somebody paid those pilots off to steal the plane.

I think the plane is safe and sound sitting on a remote airstrip somewhere.
 
Originally Posted By: Merkava_4
“My guess is based upon the stolen passports, and I believe Iran was involved [in the disappearance of the plane],” Issac Yeffet, formerly a global security expert for Israel’s national airline El Al told today’s Times of Israel. “They hijacked the aircraft and they landed it in a place that nobody can see or find it.”

Fox News


Fox or some news channel finds some dried up bored retired official or general or whatever to "speak" his mind. But reality is they have to say something on the shock side to remain in the spotlight. If they said something boring they would not remain out there and spend their days watching FOX, CNN etc and wishing they were there.

Sorry don't believe retired folks, go to the home.
 
Originally Posted By: Turk
Israel is stepping up their Air Defense Systems.

So, something's gotta be going on...



Unfortunately, the air defense systems in SE Asian nations leave a bit to be desired. Sure, the countries have bought the "prestige" items, like fighter aircraft, but the mundane, like military air search radars, are lacking...

A 777 could not have flown undetected over China, Russia, or any other nation with a credible, integrated air defense system.

The reports of altitude changes up to 45,000 and down to 23,000 don't make sense to me yet. There is no flight manual procedure to climb to put out a fire, and even if that were the case, then why descend so low after? Looks more like the plane was being hand-flown (autopilot off) badly than deliberate maneuvers. A struggle for control would also be plausible.

To evade radar, one has to get below the radar horizon. Over the ocean, that might be easy, all airplanes are below the horizon when they are far enough out, but in close to a radar site, that might require being at 100 feet. You can hide from radar using terrain (get below a mountain or ridge on the opposite side from the radar site) if you knew where all the sites were located and you carefully planned a tactical low level route (we used to do this in fighters and attack aircraft, it was a lot of fun). Doing it with a 777 would be extremely difficult, requiring knowledge of the radar sites, and detailed terrain analysis just to plan a route. Flying a commercial airliner along a route at that altitude would be difficult. But if you stayed below the airplane's max speed (330 KIAS), and max G (2.3) the airplane could handle it. The fuel consumption at that altitude would be prodigious. And it would cut the plane's range by more than half.

By the way, if you dumped the cabin pressurization manually after a climb to 45,000 you would have all the masks drop automatically in the back, but the time of useful consciousness at that altitude is measured in seconds, and it's unlikely that anyone could have donned their masks in time to survive.
 
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My BIL just got back from Cambodia yesterday & I picked him up.

I won't "say" much here on what he noticed , but security there (& Malaysia , where he has been...) is lacking, to say the least.
 
Originally Posted By: Merkava_4
I think somebody paid those pilots off to steal the plane.

I think the plane is safe and sound sitting on a remote airstrip somewhere.


See, that's part of my point earlier. There are no "remote airstrip" options for a 777... It would crush the surface and you've got 1. A stuck airplane (and a damaged one) and 2. Something visible on satellite imagery.
 
Originally Posted By: Astro14

The reports of altitude changes up to 45,000 and down to 23,000 don't make sense to me yet. There is no flight manual procedure to climb to put out a fire, and even if that were the case, then why descend so low after? Looks more like the plane was being hand-flown (autopilot off) badly than deliberate maneuvers. A struggle for control would also be plausible.

[...]

By the way, if you dumped the cabin pressurization manually after a climb to 45,000 you would have all the masks drop automatically in the back, but the time of useful consciousness at that altitude is measured in seconds, and it's unlikely that anyone could have donned their masks in time to survive.


I guess there could be highjacking activity on board resulting in depressurization. We have plenty of suspects: Iranians with stolen passports, Malaysian extremists that supposedly planned one, and finally that Chinese Muslim passenger with pilot training.

But, can you do it without alerting anyone outside the plane that something went wrong? How?

Especially, if they used explosives to breach the cockpit door or wall (per the London supergrass leak).
 
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