Long-term used vehicle prices

[obbop]

Up up up goes the cost of fuel.

Appears to be the start of a trend. Doubt if there will be a downward spiral what with the demand by China, India, et al.

So........ care to take a guess at the future selling prices for used vehicles that tend to suck gas vice sip it?

My current 2004 Chevy Silverado with the smallest V8 (4.8 liter, 294 cid) gets around 15 mpg in town and 20-23 on the freeway, depending upon speed, wind conditions, etc.

If gas hits $5 per gallon will the resale value of the truck plummet? How about if gas levels off at $2.50 or $3 bucks per gallon?

Considering the long-term trends, is now the time to rid one's self of the BIG boy and grab an itty bitty gas eater?

I asked previously about selling the truck and, based in part upon the answers, decided to keep it for 5 years or so to avoid the worst of the depreciation "hit".

But, if selling prices are gonna' plummet will hanging on to it be self-defeating?

There are many variables involved. When the last gas crunch hit I remember how small cars increased in proce, even used ones. I recall the insanity where folks sold their 12 mpg barges for a few hundred bucks and paid a steep premium for gas sippers...... ignoring the reality of the situation. Those who took a loss selling their barge never recouped the money lost on the sale and the premium paid for the itty bitty car despite the savings in gas costs. Basically, the savings in gas even over a several year period did not make up for the money lost in selling a barge that lost market value and the premium cost paid for the gas sipping econobox.

So..... considering the above and stuff you fine folks can think of..... will hanging on to the gas guzzler hurt in the long run or would I be like the folks who actually lost money by selling and buying the gas sipper.

Another aspect of the scenario.... will small car prices rise as demand increases? Both new and uesd?

Need a crystal ball to peek into the future but it broke. Thus, relying upon those infesting a message board containing possibly one of the higher combined IQs and common sense factors around.

 

[Gary Allan]

Either way you're in bad shape with a gas guzzler. Forget the crystal ball. How do you want your pain? The only answer for you is to not drive as much.

Or just plan on rerouting more disposable cash to the pump. One less pizza here ...one less steak there

probaby works out even.

I also know that I'd never see that type of mileage in that vehicle in any sensible (typical) useage. I would expect 13-15 mpg in reasonable driving. Less if I ran with the pack.

 

[obbop]

Good thinking.... give up a little here and there to assist in paying the extra cost of fuel.

Surprisingly, well, to me, anyway, when travelling down the flat Interstate highway, no wind, cruise control on, with a 4-speed overdrive transmission, 3.73 rear gears, A/C off, windows down.... going a steadt 70 mph the critter returned a verified 20.5 mpg. Checked and double checked on several trips.

Will go slower next time. I'm in no hurry. I wonder if 55 or 60 mph will give a decent return.

Basically, it's the in-town mpg I lust after since that is where most of my driving occurs.

Sniff. Miss the 1975 Honda Civic. And the 1972 slant-6 Duster.

Sniff.

 

[Shannow]

When petrol hit $1/litre, the value of my second car (4Runner) dropped $4k overnight (what they were clearing on ebay).

Decided with the mileage that we put on it, we were better keeping it for the marginal cost of fuel. i.e. that $4,000 when comparing fuel from $1.00 to $1.25 is worth 16,000 litres, or over 100,000km driving...just for the marginal fuel cost.

 

[Drew99GT]

Ahhhhhhh, I love getting 34 mpg in town and 38 on the highway. But getting run over on on-ramps is really taking it's tole on my psychy.

 

[Gary Allan]

quote:

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Will go slower next time. I'm in no hurry. I wonder if 55 or 60 mph will give a decent return.

---

50 is supposed to be some magic number that yields substantial gains in mpg. The time factor is the big deal. Time is the only true non-renewable resource for us mortals. I was driving home @ 5:30 am and had to compete with 70-80 mph traffic in both lanes. I pity those that commute so far for work that they are required to be traveling that fast so early to make the trip tolerable in terms of duration.

I don't like "giving up" anything more than anyone else does. When it comes to transportation it really doesn't matter. If you go out and ditch the gas guzzler, you're losing on it ..and paying a premium on the econo ride. This cost you money that takes away from disposible cash. Effectively it makes you feel better to dump money into a car payment instead of a gas pump. You have to do a mega amount of mileage to make it work ...and if you were doing a mega amount of mileage ..odds say you wouldn't have a gas guzzler to begin with.

btw- I find that a decent mpg for a V8 in a heavy vehicle with limited aerodynamic potential. I can get only 17.5 in my 2.5 Wrangler with 3.73 traveling @65 mph. 20 can be achieved in suburban driving under our rolling hill terrain around here. Highways tends to be worse. Now surely the added axle spinning for no good reason and the lack of aerodynamics plays a substantial role in my dismal mpg numbers. It surely seems to outweigh a full ton of GVW in other applications in terms of mpg. I tip the scales at 3200 lb.

 

[cousincletus]

That's pretty good mileage for a V-8. My 2001 Dodge V-6, 5 speed manual gets 20.5 on the highway but no less than 17 mpg. I don't drive the Dodge very much so gas isn't really hurting me.

 

[The_Jeff]

How are your fixed costs?

Parking, insurance, excise tax, registration, annual inspections?

Get a little run-around car, used or new, and hold on to the truck. My in-laws have a 1980 GMC 1/2 ton that has survived fuel both cheap and pricey. To trade yours now is the poorest market timing. A vehicle should NOT be thought of as an investment that one should get out of "while it's still worth something".

Contractors, etc., who need trucks will have an above-adequate supply of used trucks from which to choose... vehicles that were traded in by people who didn't really need them. So, yes, the price will drop on everyday work trucks.

Keep your truck clean, maintained, rust free and use it for its utility (not thinking of what it's worth) and it could be the last truck you'll ever buy.

 

[obbop]

Hmmmmmmmmmmm..........

Pondering mode settles in while huddled in my itty bitty hootch, ekeing out a miserable hardscrabble existence on the tornado-ridden blizzard-swept plains of the cultural backwater of Nebraska.

Appears that economics requires that the V8-powered rolling stock remain. Thus, cost-saving measures in regards to motion lotion will have to be implemented. Fewer pleasure trips, combine errands to reduce separate trips to complete tasks.

And, if necessary, especially if the gas cost soars ever higher....... grab onto an old cheap gas sipper despite the added cost of insurance, etc. But, gas will likely have to crawl up to the $3.50 per gallon level to make the procurement of a 2nd vehicle cost effective.

Thanks for the input fellow denizens of this planet!!!!!

 

[XS650]

Having the smaller engine, your mileage should improve more as you slow down than if you had a big engine. Engines are less efficient at light throttle, so a bigger engine falls off the efficiency curve faster as you slow down.

I case you haven't already thought of it, higher tire pressure help.

Another big difference is not using your brakes any more than necessary. When you use you brake you are throwing away the kinetic energy you have stored in the mass of your vehicle be accelerating.

ke = 0.5 M x V^2

So, if you are able to coast from 65 mph to 46 mph as you slow down, you get 1/2 that energy back. The gas economy faeries keep harping about not makeing fast starts, but it's the stops on the other end where the real difference is made.

It makes more difference in stop and go traffic but still has a suprising influence in traffic with fewer stops. Of course, if you're in rural Nebraska it might not make much difference.

 

[JohnnyO]

If the high prices keep up long enough, then yes. I lease my Sport Trac, so if SUV resale plummets it's Ford's problem.

Drill for it wherever it is found.

 

[GROUCHO MARX]

XS650, thanks for that. I've been coasting to stops and downhills for years, trying to pump us mileage and reduce wear on breaks. I'm glad someone noticed.

 

[pitzel]

Well I have been watching the prices of Volkswagen TDI-powered vehicles, 4th-generation Golf and Jetta's, over the past 5 years, from when I first came interested.

The premium one asks for, in the used market, over that of a 2.0L gasser VW, seems to be highly correlated to the differential between the price of heating oil/diesel/jet fuel and the price of regular unleaded petrol.

When diesel was higher than petrol last year at the pumps, those TDI's in diesel form barely were commanding any premium over their petrol-fired counterparts. But now, there is a substantial premium, completely based on the significant demand for the economy that the diesel engine provides.

Very good points with respect to the exposure of lessors. If a lessor has a portfolio of vehicles heavy on SUVs and other undesirable vehicles, their profitability will be directly affected.

 

[Tosh]

quote:

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Originally posted by obbop:
And, if necessary, especially if the gas cost soars ever higher....... grab onto an old cheap gas sipper despite the added cost of insurance, etc. But, gas will likely have to crawl up to the $3.50 per gallon level to make the procurement of a 2nd vehicle cost effective.

---

I would like to think that I'll never buy a car based on its gas mileage (within reason). A car is meant to be fun, safe, practical, reliable, and economical, in that order (for the sake of this argument). Life's too short (and fragile) to be forced into an old, cheap gas sipper. And no, I'm not well off: I would even say we were struggling. But my highest material priority is having a reasonably nice, safe car, one that I just love driving around in.

 

[rjundi]

People are always going to want pickups as they are purpose built vehicle and appealing both to commerical and personal use. I don't forsee the plummet.

 

[cousincletus]

I was computing the actual savings on buying a Prius vs. a Cobalt that sells for half the price ($24,000/12,000). You would have to drive 180,000 miles just to break even on the difference in the price. That's assuming there are no battery packs to replace or additional repairs with the hybrid. Also assuming that gas is 3 bucks per gallon and the Prius is getting 60 mpg and the Cobalt is getting 30 mpg.

 

[JAYCEE]

Buy a motorcycle.

 

[obbop]

I'm starting to think I shoulda' stuck with Toyota.

Wanting to "support" America as much as possible.... yes, I know many foreign makes are built with by Americans, etc. but The Chevy pick-up WAS built in Ft. Wayne Indiana.....

And, I AM attempting to find work in a very rural area in the midwest where a Chevy would be easier to have worked on, obtain parts, etc.

For those and udder reasons I took a chance on a Chevy.

Now, the dreaded "think" from the drivetrain has appeared..... and, the steering shaft is acting up.... two things mentioned repeatedly on Chevy truck message boards.

With so many years of experience building something as basic as a truck why hasn't Chevy perfected some basic stuff such as shaft splines and steering systems?

But.... one DOES read of problems with every make and model.

Sigh.........

I was just hoping a basic simplistic truck wouldn't have problems with the basic systems.

Oh well..... the advice given on this post created additional pondering periods. Looks like it would be best to keep the truck and try to have everything brought up to snuff during the warranty period, minimize driving to minimize out-of-pocket gas costs..... combine trips, eliminate pleasure drives, etc.

If I can find that job waaaaaaay out in the boonies far from the influence of what to me are the evil anti-freedom anti-American corporations and as far from the influence of a vile evil removed-from-what-the-Founders-intended federal government as possible having that Chevy 4x4 would likely make more sense than possessing a Toyota or other make that has not made the inroads into the "heartland" as they have done on the east and west coast.

Maybe I can find a little patch of land to hunker down upon then go shootin' for some food and LO!!!! note that up from the ground comes some bubblin' crude. Oil that is. Black gold.... Texas tea. You old fogies know the rest of the story.