Japan taking over the motorcycle industry

[AuthorEditor]

Quote:
Japan went through a long period of copying existing designs but suddenly developed their own engineering style. What happened to cause this revolution which likely occurred in the early 60's? Is there other industries where the dominant players were so quickly left in the dust by new entities? Who drove the Japanese industrial revolution of this time period?

That's a quote from the OP's first post. The thread was started with the idea of why did Japan do so well in the 60s and 70s, taking the lead in design, engineering, and sales worldwide not just from HD but the Brits and other European companies, not whether or not they rule the heavy cruiser market today in the USA. Keep in mind too that motorcycle sales in the USA are around 50% of what they were before the recession hit, and they are dwarfed by sales around the world. So HD may be a big deal here, but in the rest of the world they are a niche brand. Chinese and Indian companies now make and sell millions of motorcycles locally each year, which is many, many times total sales in the USA which are well under a million bikes.

 

[BigCahuna]

You are correct. They mass produce cheaply made two wheel products that are sold in third world countries, for pennies on the dollar. Who cares? two stroke motors which do nothing to help their already polluted beyond belief cities.They just keep pumping them out.And what they do sell here in the US, they sell cheap until people tire if them, then they don't sell and become what fills up their warehouses for a few years. '13,'14,'15 model year bikes can still be bought brand new. And the prices keep on dropping until They are dropped from production and replaced with another flavor of the week.The correct title of this post should have been,"Cheap japanese motorcycles whats the point of them" ?.,,

 

[alarmguy]

Originally Posted By: AuthorEditor
Quote:

That's a quote from the OP's first post. The thread was started with the idea of why did Japan do so well in the 60s and 70s, taking the lead in design, engineering, and sales worldwide not just from HD but the Brits and other European companies, not whether or not they rule the heavy cruiser market today in the USA. Keep in mind too that motorcycle sales in the USA are around 50% of what they were before the recession hit, and they are dwarfed by sales around the world. So HD may be a big deal here, but in the rest of the world they are a niche brand. Chinese and Indian companies now make and sell millions of motorcycles locally each year, which is many, many times total sales in the USA which are well under a million bikes.


Any luxury automobile or motorcycle such as Harley is a "niche" brand. The millions of bikes you say dwarf Harley also dwarf BMW, Indian, Victory etc. Only a tiny percent of people can afford luxury brands, the rest buy mopeds which are the majority of the "millions" you speak of. It is also their primary source of transportation. This is not by choice rather then necessity, needing transportation.

Of the people that can afford them, they are a sense of pride, joy and achievement. Lets take the Philippines for example. THe price of a Harley is more then 90% of the populations cost of owning a home/shed or shack. The vast majority of the population outside of the city carries their families on mopeds.

You can go to Harleys website in Manila Philippines and see that a Road King cost $38,000 in USA Dollars. Much the same for any luxury brand including automobiles like Porsche, Lamborghini, BMW. To be able to purchase a luxury brand takes hard work, a bit of luck and achievement and when they do, they make these purchases, many times with cash as they dont have the liberal finance options we do.
Make no mistake, Harley is a luxury, not a necessity, something with which well over 90% of the world cant afford, no different from any other luxury item. But if offered to them and if they are able to achieve the income or savings to purchase one, it is a great sense of joy.
Just google Harley Philippines. I bring up the Philippines for having personal knowledge and "family", a proud good people AND the fact that Manila has become and has a growth rate that has exploded only second to China. The luxury brands, buildings, malls in Manila match the USA best and the luxury housing is simply amazing and expensive as well. These are the people who buy luxury items of all brands.

 

[alarmguy]

Since you brought up the OPs post again, let me say again. Japan has retreated from the motorcycle market Harley Davidson is in, here in the USA. SO I dont see that Japan has taken over the motorcycle market. Not at all, they failed too.

American workers, under the right leadership are the best in the world, what will be, by the end of this year, BMW automobiles, now in its 5th expansion here in South Carolina USA at approx 1 billion dollars for each expansion will be the largest producer of BMWs in the world even surpassing Germany itself. As of right now, before the 5th expansion is completed, BMW South Carolina is the largest exporter of automobiles in the USA with 70% of the automobiles it produces being exported.

 

[alarmguy]

Yes, a motorcycle is anything with an engine on it and the primary source of transportation for much of the world. Much of these mopeds are small, under 400cc bikes. Something that would not be capable of high speed travel on freeways here.

 

[CT8]

If I had a bike it would be better than yours and yours and yours.

 

[Jarlaxle]

Originally Posted By: alarmguy
Yes, a motorcycle is anything with an engine on it and the primary source of transportation for much of the world. Much of these mopeds are small, under 400cc bikes. Something that would not be capable of high speed travel on freeways here.


Define "high speed travel on freeways" and define it PRECISELY.

 

[Revelate]

While I also have experience with a variety of brands and owned and ridden many motorcycles including a variety of H.D's, I believe your outlook on Harley and their company is a little optimistic. They would have went Bankrupt had it not been for Regan aiding them in tariff taxes to the Japanese. This is even more shocking when you take into consideration that the Big 4 offered financial assistance and industrial tooling practices to help H.D if they would drop the pursuit of tariff taxes which H.D refused, offering $10 million in technological assistance, and $20 million in bank loans in 1980s money!! Their pride of accepting any assistance at the potential of bankruptcy is astonishing.

CATO Policy Analysis

While they do own a HUGE percentage of sales of over 600cc engines they made a total of roughly 260,000 motorecycles in 2015. Worldwide Honda sold a total of 17.8 million motorcycles worldwide. While it's nice to do great in a particular segment, H.D suffers in the larger scheme that is the motorcycling world (beyond not making smaller cc motorcycles, dirt bikes, sport touring, adventure, or sport bike lineups).

Honda Sales Figures 2015

As of current H.D also has a total of 185,000 recalls that is estimated to cost the company $35 million dollars to cover.

H.D Recalls

Further Recalls


While H.D's stock price has been declining as of late with a lack of expected sales along wits laying off many employees, Polaris' motorcycle division of Victory, Indian, and Brammo has increased by 154% in their 3rd quarter of 2015. I think it's completely obtuse to believe that Polaris isn't surging in sales and growth in the America Cruiser segment.

Polaris Quarterly Increase

Quarterly Increases of H.D & Polaris

Speaking of reliability issues this is a link from the Torrance Police Department stating that they were replacing the 19 H.D they bought in 2006 for $414,000 or $21,789 each and instead purchasing Hondas offering of 16 motorcycles for $250,000, or $15,625 per bike (25% savings per bike over Harley).

They did so because the Harleys were costing the city $8600 per year in maintenance costs whereas the Honda averaged $2300, a savings of close to 300%!

The reasons for the extremely high maintenance cost was described by Torrance Police Department were, "recurring and expensive mechanical problems to starters and transmissions as well as many cracked engine cases and excessive vibration. Even worse, the Harley's engine tended to overheat in prolonged traffic stops."

"Turning it off didn't help either. Emergency lights drained the battery, which meant it needed to be push-started before the engine fired, said Lt. Steve D'Anjou, commander of the Traffic Division. Neither represented the image the Torrance Police Department wanted to project to the public. D'Anjou said he was not involved in the selection of the Harley for use by the TPD."

So, mechanical problems to starters, transmissions, excessive engine vibration, overheating, drained batteries, excessive maintenance costs, and above all CRACKED ENGINE CASES led the P.D to leave Harley because it didn't represent the image they wanted to covey to the public. These are issues that have occurred from 2006 to 2012 that caused them to leave, on modern motors and technology from H.D.

Torrance Police Department Leaving H.D

Everything here is backed by newspapers, NASDAQ, Reuters, CBS, and other financial authorities on the subject that can't be argued.

Again, while I respect all riders and their respective motorcycle manufacturers (as I have owned and ridden many) these are the facts. This isn't to bring down anyone's choice of motorcycle or harp on any particular manufacturer as Honda, Yamaha, AND Suzuki have had recalls as well this year, but we have to look at the greater picture in the grand scheme of things.

 

[SlipperyPete]

Originally Posted By: BigCahuna
You are correct. They mass produce cheaply made two wheel products that are sold in third world countries, for pennies on the dollar. Who cares? two stroke motors which do nothing to help their already polluted beyond belief cities.They just keep pumping them out.And what they do sell here in the US, they sell cheap until people tire if them, then they don't sell and become what fills up their warehouses for a few years. '13,'14,'15 model year bikes can still be bought brand new. And the prices keep on dropping until They are dropped from production and replaced with another flavor of the week.The correct title of this post should have been,"Cheap japanese motorcycles whats the point of them" ?.,,


It seems strange a grown man should care so much about what other people buy. You do realize your HD is just your motorcycle and not your johnson, don't you? Really, no one is commenting about you personally when they buy something besides an HD. But I'm sure HD appreciates you protecting the internet for them, so you got that going for you.

 

[alarmguy]

Woulda, shoulda, coulda, did, didnt, etc, etc ... doesnt change any of the facts as far as HD sales in the USA and demand/status for their motorcycles world wide. an American success story, a luxury product for sure and a dream product of many people.
What was in the past is the past, its been around and still around as a world leader after over 100 years.
As far as you discounting so called government help decades ago, the past is the past and lets not discount that industries in Japan would not be the success they were without the USA rebuilding their industries after we beat them to a pulp in World War II. It was our policies and FAVORABLE trade status that allowed them to become the industrialized nation they have become. Its silly to constantly hear about the US government helping an American industry survive, more so against unfair trade.

Welcome to 2016, Harley is still here, stronger then ever and the Japanese cruisers from Yamaha, Suzuki, Kawaski whom tried to take market share from Harley have just about pulled all their large cruisers from showroom floors, never mind the huge losses they suffered trying to compete.

 

[alarmguy]

BTW - Torrance Police department Leaving Harley for Honda whom Honda American headquarters happen to be in the same city, Torrance and not only that, the model Honda they are replacing the Harleys with have been called downright dangerous by a police department in England after an officer was killed ...

My point is, who cares???

You cant change the fact that 50% of all motorcycle sales over 600 cc come from the successful Harley Davidson Company. Its easy to pull garbage out of the trash when it comes to HD. Heck, there are so many around. Some people love to trash a success story, hate successful companies for some reason. Bottom line, there are no cruisers like it in the world.
Over and out ...

 

[alarmguy]

Originally Posted By: CT8
If I had a bike it would be better than yours and yours and yours.


Yeah,I am sure it would be,so take that! *L*

 

[Revelate]

Originally Posted By: alarmguy
BTW - Torrance Police department Leaving Harley for Honda whom Honda American headquarters happen to be in the same city, Torrance and not only that, the model Honda they are replacing the Harleys with have been called downright dangerous by a police department in England after an officer was killed ...

My point is, who cares???

You cant change the fact that 50% of all motorcycle sales over 600 cc come from the successful Harley Davidson Company. Its easy to pull garbage out of the trash when it comes to HD. Heck, there are so many around. Some people love to trash a success story, hate successful companies for some reason. Bottom line, there are no cruisers like it in the world.
Over and out ...


Yes an officer was killed in England after a Honda was modified for police use and had high speed stability issues, not the one that is purpose built as a police model and is used successfully throughout the United States.

Regardless of where Honda is headquartered, the Harley Davidson's used in their police force had starter and transmission breakages, and engine case cracking during operation and cost nearly 300% more money to operate. I don't think Honda conspired with a local police department to cause the engine cases to Crack so they could sell 16 motorcycles...sounds like a conspiracy theory.

I hold no ill will against H.D and think they did a superb job of increasing sales and fine tuning their Company after near bankruptcy. But to say there are no issues currently within the company and that they own the market when their stock value is deteriorating, the competition is posting triple digit increases, and to say the Japanese market failed to make anything stick is simply glossing over facts and being indifferent to the truth.

One can't argue with facts. I've posted a plethora from recognized sources that anyone can verify, yet you choose to ignore them and tout your own truth as you alleged Grampi did.

 

[gman2304]

http://www.zeromotorcycles.com/fleet/police/

Why can't we all just get along?

 

[alarmguy]

Originally Posted By: Revelate

... the competition is posting triple digit increases, and to say the Japanese market failed to make anything stick is simply glossing over facts and being indifferent to the truth.

One can't argue with facts. I've posted a plethora from recognized sources that anyone can verify, yet you choose to ignore them and tout your own truth as you alleged Grampi did.


google is anyone reading these posts friend. They can verify ANYTHING I posted. If they cant I will do so at my convenience. I have not seen ONE source that you posted that contradicts anything I have posted. As most forums, all I see are words with nothing to back them up.
Triple digit increases?? Not in the USA.
Oh and by the way, do you know in 2014 who reclaimed the top market share in Japan?
Harley Davidson.
But we are talking the United States where NO one company comes close to selling as many motorcycles.
and Japan is not in any way shape or form showing growth in the USA and to say triple digit is laughable....
Here is the truth ... Click for simple statement on Japan bikes in the USA

Here is some more truth for you ... google is your friend and unlike you, what I post can be verfied ... Click here for more facts
I bet you didnt know this ..
" For the full year, Harley-Davidson was number one in market share in the 601cc-plus segment in the U.S., Canada, Australia, India and Japan."

 

[Revelate]

Originally Posted By: alarmguy
Originally Posted By: Revelate

... the competition is posting triple digit increases, and to say the Japanese market failed to make anything stick is simply glossing over facts and being indifferent to the truth.

One can't argue with facts. I've posted a plethora from recognized sources that anyone can verify, yet you choose to ignore them and tout your own truth as you alleged Grampi did.


google is anyone reading these posts friend. They can verify ANYTHING I posted. If they cant I will do so at my convenience. I have not seen ONE source that you posted that contradicts anything I have posted. As most forums, all I see are words with nothing to back them up.
Triple digit increases?? Not in the USA.
Oh and by the way, do you know in 2014 who reclaimed the top market share in Japan?
Harley Davidson.
But we are talking the United States where NO one company comes close to selling as many motorcycles.
and Japan is not in any way shape or form showing growth in the USA and to say triple digit is laughable....
Here is the truth ... Click for simple statement on Japan bikes in the USA

Here is some more truth for you ... google is your friend and unlike you, what I post can be verfied ... Click here for more facts
I bet you didnt know this ..
" For the full year, Harley-Davidson was number one in market share in the 601cc-plus segment in the U.S., Canada, Australia, India and Japan."


Your post is laughable at best. Every paragraph I posted is accompanied by 1-2 credible sources, and yours are sporadic at best. Feel free to post any facts that show my sources aren't credible, which you obviously havent and cant.

Here is the second time you've made an uninformed statement: and Japan is not in any way shape or form showing growth in the USA and to say triple digit is laughable....".

If you bothered to read my post or look at my references you'll note that I didn't say the Japanese had received triple digit increases, but that TWO sources from CBS and Berkshire Hathaway both state factually that Polaris motorcycle sales surged by 154%, obviously taking market share away from both the Japanese and H.D.

CBS ON POLARIS QUARTERLY INCREASES

BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY ON POLARIS QUARTERLY INCREASES

I don't enjoy the bickering, especially when one refuses to read through a post and at least check the sources provided. I'm happy you enjoy your Harley as I also have and are passionate about them as a company, after all, thats what motorcycling is all about.

 

[alarmguy]

Oh my god you got to be kidding me.
Did you or did you not type the following ...

"I hold no ill will against H.D and think they did a superb job of increasing sales and fine tuning their Company after near bankruptcy. But to say there are no issues currently within the company and that they own the market when their stock value is deteriorating, the competition is posting triple digit increases, and to say the Japanese market failed to make anything stick is simply glossing over facts and being indifferent to the truth.

One can't argue with facts. I've posted a plethora from recognized sources that anyone can verify, yet you choose to ignore them and tout your own truth as you alleged Grampi did."

____________
Ok, hopefully you answer. Your post sounds like a so called news story in the NY TIMES.
Cherry picking so called news stories from all over the place to promote and trash Harley Davidson.

1. It certainly was EASY for me to mis read your post regarding triple digit increases to mean POLARIS industries when Polaris wasnt mentioned in the paragraph and Japan was!

2. All you have posted was anti Harley information bashing, cherry picked stories and links to recalls with NO balance of posting links to recalls of ALL THE OTHER BRANDs. You just mention with the words I am sure they have their share, why not the links, why only Harley?
Why no mention of the HORRIBLE paint problem on Indians $25,000 motorcycles which they just corrected, they stated they are used to painting ATV where people are not as picky about paint, because the paint was scratching to easy. Can you imagine if you bought one of those bikes?

3. This thread was about Japan taking over the motorcycle industry, which I think, we, meaning ME has now proven to be NOT true. However you now bring in Polaris industries to prove a point about HD losing market share. I was proving a point saying that Japan has just about shut down all sales of heavy cruisers in the USA and how they have flopped big time.

4. Ill post links, balanced links, true annual reports from both companies if you want to turn this into a Polaris HD [censored] match. But just watch out, they will be actual factual, legally binding corporate statements, not news reporters stories.

5. By the WAY, I HOPE TO GOD POLARIS gets their act together and does well! Competition is a GREAT thing. I do not think Harley would have came out with their superior Rushmore touring bikes if not for Polaris. I said think, I dont know.

6. I do wish Polaris Industries well! They are American workers, American company, we are the best!
NOW HERE IS THE PROBLEM, so far, Polaris has FAILED MISERABLY with the Victory line of bikes. Seem like great bikes, [censored], I almost bought a Cross Roads in 2012, dealer was practically giving it to me! I LOVED IT ... but passed, daughter was only in her 2nd year of college at the time.
Now I know why and glad I didnt buy it, they stopped making Cross Roads, darn things werent selling!
IN FACT, Victory has now been selling bikes for over 10 years and their sales are NOT tripling. They have been stuck in about 2% of the market share and a big money loser for Polaris.
SO big they were threatened to turn things around "or else".
SO enter a new name, new product, Indian. Look like god beautiful bikes and the press is having a love affair with them.
Only time will tell, you see, at one time the failed Victory line up was posting TRIPLE digit increases too! THING IS, its EASY TO POST TRIPLE DIGIT INCREASES WHEN YOU DIDNT MAKE THE PRODUCT THE YEAR BEFORE!
SO you go from selling nothing to something = INCREASES. geez ... basic math.

AS much as I root for Polaris, being American and all. They unlike HD are sneaky in the way they report results, they do not let their stock holders (and public) know the break down of their motorcycle sales, so there is always some guess work, they report motorcycle sales as motorcycle sales, lumping together Victory, Indian and ther freaking THREE WHEELED CARS *L*
By the way, their 3 wheeled cars sold better then expected in 2015, opps just add that to the triple digit increase!

But, I suspect the large Indian cruisers where a let down for them in 2015, which is startling when you think about it, I mean, Indian has only been in production for a couple years and for 2015 Polaris admitted the over 900cc Indian brand bikes only grew in the SINGLE DIGITS !!!
For gods sake, they have only been in production a couple years and already slowing down?
However your NY TIMES style reporting doesnt show any of this stuff.

FURTHERMORE your self serving slam on me, comparing me to grampi just goes to show how shallow your posts are.

I will post for you the TRUE unbiased statements from HD and POLARIS when I have time later today or early this week. Its real easy to find, but Im having breakfast now.

 

[Analyzer]

Originally Posted By: ledslinger
What happened to cause this revolution which likely occurred in the early 60's? Is there other industries where the dominant players were so quickly left in the dust by new entities? Who drove the Japanese industrial revolution of this time period?

A peripheral question: What was the first mass produced motorcycle with a gear drive primary?


It's suprising to say that those were the original poster's questions, which then veered off course within roughly a dozen replies to discuss Harley Davidsons heavy weight cruiser market in this era, rather than the Japanese motorcycle revolution that occurred in the 60s.

By doing so nearly all the corresponding replies are hostile and off topic, hence there being over 10,600 views and only 216 replies. I personally think we should go back to what this post was initially about, and leave the rest behind.

 

[alarmguy]

Yeah, well kind of sort of, however the poster made a statement that opened the door when he titled his post .. "Japan taking over the motorcycle industry"

and as far as views vs replies, I kind of enjoyed this thread and so have others.
If you check, you will see out of 229 PAGES in Motorcycle and Motorcycle Lubrication.
This thread is #4 in replies, amazing...

 

[alarmguy]

Doesnt matter to me but here is the one year price performance of the two stocks.
Keep in mind, motorcycles are only 15% or so of Polaris Business and just like all stocks they go up and down with the market and whatever stock is the flavor of the day for the investment houses most people pile their 401 k money into...
Only posting this because you were pointing out how superior Polaris was doing with a few quotes from investment houses...and after all, they want you to invest, its their business!
You will have to click on 1 year to see the graph.

Polaris was $140 a share last year, as of today its below $100.
Polaris one year performance

Harley was $60 a share a year ago, now its $46.
One year Harley Price

Harley 2015 results
In this report, I was actually surprised to see Harley has the largest motorcycle market share in JAPAN. Looks like they lost it for a while (reading the words) and got it back.Again I am SURE they are talking large motorcycles, not mopeds or cheaper small bikes, luxury bikes which is HD.

Polaris 2015 Results
In this report you will see a comment by Polaris that their big cruisers sales increase was in the single digits, considering they have been out only a couple years that is pretty poor. But they did have sales increases vs HDs flat to slightly lower.(USA numbers)

Ok, done with this thread... (really this time)