Investors....come in please!

Status
Not open for further replies.
Originally Posted by Mr Nice
Rmay,

Half of all mom & pop type businesses have one foot in the grave and the other foot balancing on a banana peel. No joke.

Unemployment quickly approaching 30 Million but some folks on TV says everything is OK and expect a "V" shaped recover.
smirk.gif





Alarm guy,

I'm still 100% cash on the sidelines. Market realistically should be 12,000.

And I'm being very generous....


No argument from me!

Except one note: (of course)
I gave up trying to find a "realistic market and now look more towards companies that have a real product that will always be in demand. Nothing at all being in all cash, dont think I am saying otherwise.
I too at times have, right now for me, I dont feel the need, long term, meaning Im not looking to or worried about preserving my profits of the last year. So far WMT still looking good to me and if we knock a couple thousand points off the market I would love to pick some up at around 106. I paid 98 last year, if we go down to 12,000 Ill put everything I own into WMT .. .(disclosure I am not recommending anything and no smarter then anyone else and could change my mind in 60 seconds and move onto something else).
I do have a nasty but small loss right now in WFC but again nothing like I have invested in WMT ... the WFC was a mistake but too long a story... *L*
 
Last edited:
Originally Posted by Amkeer
Oil futures effect gas prices.


Are we tired of all the winning. :-)


Do you mean whining or winning?
 
Last edited:
Originally Posted by cjcride
Originally Posted by Amkeer
Oil futures effect gas prices.


Are we tired of all the winning. :-)


Do you mean whining or winning?


Oil futures affect gas prices. But they still haven't budged lately.

I think we're all tired.
 
Originally Posted by cjcride
Originally Posted by Amkeer
Oil futures effect gas prices.

Are we tired of all the winning. :-)

Do you mean whining or winning?


Winning quickly became whining.
 
Literally ANYTHING could still happen but I think those "end of the earth" predictions of DJIA 12,000 or whatever are not in the picture. This market has been incredibly resiliant so far. After a breif tick just below 20,000, it has clawed back half of the losses already, and even stands 2200 points HIGHER than it was in January of last year!
 
It is looking a bit promising right now. The SPX has been hovering around the 2800 mark for a week now.

I went all in about three weeks ago, in this for the long haul, playing it safe. If it drops further, will just take a bit longer to go back to where it was in February. I have found the fastest way to loose money is to try and time the market, so I am just continuing to make weekly additions to my portfolio.
 
Markets are overbought right now; Feds are ran out of its ammunition in essence

April month is a traditionally strong month for markets; however, there is a saying sell in May and come back in November on the Wall Street

And history tends to repeat itself...
 
Originally Posted by gfh77665
Literally ANYTHING could still happen but I think those "end of the earth" predictions of DJIA 12,000 or whatever are not in the picture. This market has been incredibly resiliant so far. After a breif tick just below 20,000, it has clawed back half of the losses already, and even stands 2200 points HIGHER than it was in January of last year!


Ill stick with the "anything can happen" theory.
It doesnt matter right now how resilient the market is in the near term as much as what forward earnings will be.
Its is good that the market is discounting the disaster in earnings that is about to hit in the next six+ months. I just cant help but think what might happen once that reality is here.
I think playing it safe with sound companies right now, there are plenty. But what the heck do I know? *L* I am still here on BITOG .. .so not a brain surgeon when it comes to the market!
 
Originally Posted by gfh77665
Literally ANYTHING could still happen but I think those "end of the earth" predictions of DJIA 12,000 or whatever are not in the picture. This market has been incredibly resiliant so far. After a breif tick just below 20,000, it has clawed back half of the losses already, and even stands 2200 points HIGHER than it was in January of last year!


I think I'd argue that 20-22k is probably right, not 12, and not 24 or 29k. The market was too high when it plummeted, and it has been due for a correction for a while. The market is not unlike the seasons, and we didn't get our winter that has been due. My thought is that the lack of drop was fabricated, waiting for the right time, then the virus happened. So now it's anybody's guess.

Reality is that the USA is the best established economy to invest in. The world has money to invest, and the world is chasing outcomes. Where is that opportunity best? While cash on sidelines is often prudent, there are lots of studies that indicate that missing the best few days results in a pretty big reduction in overall performance. Individual stocks can probably be timed that way, but not the overall market.

If one buys into the fact that markets are efficient and price in bad news, then the market is finding that appropriate pricing level. Yes, it will not be a good quarter or three. But people aren't still,going to need what they need. Some areas like casinos, some entertainment, some retail will do worse. Other areas have opportunity, like I mentioned in the car buying thread, people still need to buy cars if they did before, if they put it off for a few months, the need was still there, and is there. The only delta is timing. The number of cars that will have a material reduction in wear and tear for a few months of lockdown is tiny. The only real reduction in demand in the long run is the reduction in attrition due to less commuting, most of the rest were going to happen and will happen. RE is another indicator, and around here buying at asking price, multiple bidders, is still the case, even with closings becoming more cumbersome. A house across the street from us sold within days, and had at least five tours a day for the first few days on the market, despite the virus. Yes mortgages have tightened, but there is still a good stock of qualified buyers who are still employed.

Tech has actually enabled lots of folks to keep working, and IMO the market is recognizing that there may be a deferral if need, but it will come in many cases. The full fledged drop of a month ago saw massive drops in valuation of some companies, insufficient drops in others. I think we are heading towards a middle ground here that I think will stagnate for a while, but I don't know will go to 12000. Maybe a regression back to 20k, but oscillation in a range of about +/-5% around there for a while.
 
Anything is possible with the market. You also have to look at the fundamentals of the economy. We are seeing numbers we didn't even see with the downturn in 2008. We have lagging indicators right now. When some of that catches up we will see what happens. Unfortunately, we still have to many optimistic people in stocks which tends to mean things will get ugly in the coming months. Personally I play what I see not what I think. For me it doesn't matter as I am making money regardless of what is going on. Ignore the noise and stay focused.

If you can train your brain to remember this you will do well. Most will ignore it and that is fine as you need people to lose in order to win. When people do not want to own or have anything to do with stocks or anything in the market is when you buy. We will see what happens.
 
Originally Posted by Amkeer
Anything is possible with the market. You also have to look at the fundamentals of the economy. We are seeing numbers we didn't even see with the downturn in 2008. We have lagging indicators right now. When some of that catches up we will see what happens. Unfortunately, we still have to many optimistic people in stocks which tends to mean things will get ugly in the coming months. Personally I play what I see not what I think. For me it doesn't matter as I am making money regardless of what is going on. Ignore the noise and stay focused.

If you can train your brain to remember this you will do well. Most will ignore it and that is fine as you need people to lose in order to win. When people do not want to own or have anything to do with stocks or anything in the market is when you buy. We will see what happens.

I'm long right now.

You have very good points here though.
 
Bought up USO today. Who wants to gamble on a risky oil stock with me? 2.13 a share. If crude gets back to $50 it could be $10 USO. Or maybe it falls from here still i dunno. Place your bets!
 
I took Warren Buffet's advice. I bought a strong company that I believe is run well, has good balance sheets, projects positive cashflow for 2020 and 2021, and has good leadership.
 
Originally Posted by Ws6
I took Warren Buffet's advice. I bought a strong company that I believe is run well, has good balance sheets, projects positive cashflow for 2020 and 2021, and has good leadership.


Sounds like AMZN.
 
Originally Posted by Amkeer
Anything is possible with the market. You also have to look at the fundamentals of the economy. We are seeing numbers we didn't even see with the downturn in 2008. .


But keep in mind we are also seeing liquidity and stimulus pumped in at unprecedented quantities. Just massive amounts.
 
Originally Posted by gfh77665
Originally Posted by Amkeer
Anything is possible with the market. You also have to look at the fundamentals of the economy. We are seeing numbers we didn't even see with the downturn in 2008. .


But keep in mind we are also seeing liquidity and stimulus pumped in at unprecedented quantities. Just massive amounts.

Scary to think what would happen if trillions were not pumped in.

I recently have a few shorts and not a lot of money if this blows up. More of an experiment than an investment.
 
I watched Jerome Powell today on Fox Buisness. He had a Q & A with the media. The one theme that is clear is that the Feds policy is to underpin the economy, and by extension, the markets. He says there is ample tools still left in the Fed tool kit, and they will not rest until the recovery is as full as possible.

I agree with concept of "Don't fight the Fed". DJIA up 500+ points today, and 6000+ points since the late March low...

Astounding.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Similar threads

Passport1
Stock Split
2
Replies
29
Views
1K
mjk1967
PandaBear
Long term investing and the logics of selling options
2
Replies
29
Views
3K
PandaBear
shortyb
Adventures to the Gulf Coast
Replies
5
Views
202
shortyb
GON
Many passionate American CEO's in office today like Lee Iacocca?
2 3 4
Replies
75
Views
4K
John105
Carlostrece
Please help with my maintenance/upgrade To-Do-List
Replies
15
Views
983
Carlostrece
Back
Top Bottom