Investors....come in please!

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Nothing lately. Bought a bunch of ARR the other day. I did sell my ARNA by accident recently... DOH!!! Still got a pretty good price for it.

Looking for entries into VE and ORAN, as well as WFT.
 
I hear rates will stay low into the future which does not bode well for mREITS.
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Hard to invest now as the market has run-up so far on what looks to be weakness.

I did "barely fair" this year, but really missed out believing this economy is built on sinking sand & believe the market is propped up. Even though charts & indicators keep pointing up & dumb money has done well, do I stay on the sidelines to avoid a big & fast drop, or go way in to ride along & hopefully not get spanked when it hits??

Uh, what a condrundum.
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Thats why I like VE and other stocks like that. Fairly low share price and the swing is enough that you can easily pocket hundreds almost daily, without having to look too much or have too much principal tied up in one thing (risk). I think the mREITs are a value play right now because of obnoxiously low book values, coupled with the fact that rates will creep up a little here and there (though still low by historical standards).
 
Originally Posted By: Turk
I hear rates will stay low into the future which does not bode well for mREITS.
frown.gif






That is not how I understand it at all; REITs in a sense act just like bonds; they fall in price as rates go up. Rates have run up tremendously in the past few months and if they reverse and you buy REITs near a rate peak, you'll lock in a high yield while potentially getting upside potential as the prices goes up.

I could be wrong, but the price of REITs and many other rate sensitive sectors look like the inverse of treasury yields on a chart of you overlay them. Same thing with LINE and the big yielding stocks, although they aren't quite as correlated.
 
Right, but there are also issues with the spread, and the delta in spread over time, which relates back to how cheaply they can borrow money to buy higher rate mortgages, and then how many higher rate mortgages get refinanced in time, cutting into the spread again.

Its all about leverage and a spread to buy a basket of yielding assets with minimal poor performers.

My understanding is that consistently low rates can be bad too, as many of the higher yielding mortgages will get paid off over time, and then the returns for a given amount of interest paid on principal borrowed by the mREIT will drop...
 
Originally Posted By: Warstud
Be careful here...They have sold every rally for the past three days now.


Yea, especially after Ben's comments.

If it starts looking like it's rolling over, bolt.
 
Speaking of rolling over, it's pretty obvious now that gold/silver/miners were in a head and shoulders and the downside projections aren't pretty. The rally attempt over the last few months was corrective and I'd assume now the 2013 lows will be taken out. The HUI index is at a very term support trendline, and if that gives way, it isn't looking purty for gold bugs. Maybe they'll get it to hold, but I talked to a guy on Youtube that was selling physical on Apmex and he said they are overwhelmed with sellers, and the dealers, who are forced to hedge anything they buy, is adding fuel to the downside.
 
Yea, Drew, I'm kinda stuck as I got some Gold as a hedge only in my IRA & am at about 6% of the total, but am down more than I want to ink in the loss, if you know what I mean.

Don't want to keep losing, but don't want to ink in the loss either.
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Since it is only in the IRA that I won't touch in 15 years, I guess it's ok to just leave it... I suppose...
 
Just curious as this is an 'investors' thread, but it seems most discuss trading (which IMO is different than simply investing) - how well have you traders done this YTD?

In my Roth IRA I'm at 18.5% it looks like and in my 457 plan I'm at 18.3%

One lone stock holding, rest are index funds.
 
Stupid mREITs... Maybe need to take some year end taxable losses, wait 30 days and then jump back in... What's your plan?
 
Originally Posted By: JHZR2
Stupid mREITs... Maybe need to take some year end taxable losses, wait 30 days and then jump back in... What's your plan?


ARR? Next excursion over $4? SOLD

I'm wondering about this Canadian thing: CDPYF

I nibbled some gold stuff again earlier this week trying to catch a falling knife. Popped today on the wild money policy being thrown out there. UMPQ is up over 12% since I recommended it. USB up nearly 7%.

Bought some BBN on the lose money talk. Will sell if they start mentioning tightening again.
 
Originally Posted By: Warstud
Hope this isn't the start of the next leg up. These gap ups are killing me.


Could be.

ARR & AGNC is killin' me..... Not happy being down 34%. Too late to sell, you know, as soon as I sell, it'll pop back up. Uh.
 
Originally Posted By: surfstar
Just curious as this is an 'investors' thread, but it seems most discuss trading (which IMO is different than simply investing) - how well have you traders done this YTD?

In my Roth IRA I'm at 18.5% it looks like and in my 457 plan I'm at 18.3%

One lone stock holding, rest are index funds.


Hmm, I think I miscalc'd the IRA returns as they only give me $ amounts and not a %. Currently YTD looks to be:

Roth: 22.0%
457: 19.9%
 
There's still good trendline support below on the SP500 and Dow; they both lost the 20 day moving average. It would seem normal for a trip back to the 50 or even 100 day for the SP500 and the 200 day for the Dow (that was support a few months back). It's probably better for the market to keep stair stepping and staying closer to the moving averages than to keep going parabolic. Until those moving averages break down along with price, you have to assume the bull market lives. It looks like this is a sell the rumor deal or something as the market is preparing for taper as both stocks and treasuries are selling off together.

http://ciovaccocapital.com/wordpress/ind...same-way-again/
 
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Drew, yep, I watch his Twitter feed occasionally through the day.
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Every day.
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I'm concerned households will have less money to spend because of you-know-what coming. I think an economic hit will be coming, imho.
 
I was early shorting the bond market but that has worked out. Now I'm early shorting the SP 500 and its been painful but still believe that will work out as well..
 
The SP500 looks healthy today, as are the Dow and Russel 2000. All holding key support levels. Barring a sell off today and more importantly any big gap down Monday morning, we could rally from here. It may be sloppy, but I still think it grinds higher. The Dow may have to go to 15,500/SP500 to 1765 before finding support. Key level for the Dow30 is 16,450; that is the remaining long term trendline on US indeces that encompasses the 2000 and 2007 tops. The Russel tagged it in late November, has pulled back, and will make another run at it I think along with the Dow. SP500 and Dow Tranports long ago broke through it and successfully retested. Dow 16,450 sometime in early 2014 I think will be the next significant resistance for the market as it grinds slowly higher during this time of the year statistically.
 
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