Investors....come in please!
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Is anyone else doing it? So far DGAZ is up 20% in 2 days.
This guy had the same idea. He called it: Sick Of Shoveling Snow? Here's The Trade.
Here is his video: http://www.tradinganalysis.com/public/Sick-Of-Shoveling-Snow-Heres-The-Trade.cfm
This guy had the same idea. He called it: Sick Of Shoveling Snow? Here's The Trade.
Here is his video: http://www.tradinganalysis.com/public/Sick-Of-Shoveling-Snow-Heres-The-Trade.cfm
Originally Posted By: Warstud
Dead Cat Bounce?
What? The SP?
It will bounce back to the old highs or above before good for shorting again.
Dead Cat Bounce?
What? The SP?
It will bounce back to the old highs or above before good for shorting again.
Took profit in DGAZ. Over 30% in 3 days. Looking to reload later on a dip.
I work the wall street markets. Now is a time to be trading your bluechips in for large mining shares. Think Barrick, Teck Cominco and other large companies such as goldcorp.
Originally Posted By: rw19
I work the wall street markets. Now is a time to be trading your bluechips in for large mining shares. Think Barrick, Teck Cominco and other large companies such as goldcorp.
Give us a little more. Why do you think this?
What about AUY?
I work the wall street markets. Now is a time to be trading your bluechips in for large mining shares. Think Barrick, Teck Cominco and other large companies such as goldcorp.
Give us a little more. Why do you think this?
What about AUY?
Yamana is a excellent takeout from one of the bigger boys right now. The price of gold SHOULD start rising soon. People look at 1200 dollar gold and they say [censored]! Gold used to be 400 a oz only a few years ago.
You have to dig deeper to get the correct answer. And before I get into it I would like to say I am not a goldbug, I do not forecast 10,000 dollar gold. I think 1800 is a more reasonable estimate.
Anyways lets DIG deeper
The cost of production has gone up expediently because gold mining is a energy, chemical, and labour intensive process. Most mining companies are hurting and slowing production because they are only breaking even at current prices. There are still loads of central banks buying gold most prominently the banks of india and china these are two ancient cultures that have always loved gold. Now that they are gaining power they will continue to buy. We will see a slow upward appraisal of gold this year and the mining sector is very relient on M&A (mergers and acquisitions) There has been a uptick in that and cash rich companies such as goldcorp need to keep purchasing more companies as they are producing millions of oz's a year. Unlike apple they can't "invent" more gold so they have to buy smaller companies such as AUY.
There has been a uptick in M&A in the whole sector and junior mining stocks are up 100's of percent in the last few months. This is a value sector as it has been a dog on the street for a couple of years.
Auy seems overvalued at 22x earnings but it trades at these multiples because everyone is looking for a buyout offer.
After the crash of 2008 companies like Teck and Auy went up 1000s of percentage points in a matter of months. They are almost at 2008 levels again. This is a buying opportunity of a lifetime.
Have a well diversified portfolio but really load up on hard assets gold, copper, oil, silver etc. These are always going to be the fundamentals of the economy. Other companies come and go but hard assets are forever. Apple may go under if they run out of innovation but someone will replace them and remember they will need metals and materials to make product! Pablo if you want me to run a more in-depth analysis on Yamana or any other holding you have feel free to PM me. I will go do in-depth research whenever I have sometime and tell you what I think.
Remember guys what we read on the internet are opinions and should not constituted as investment advice.
As always, this article is solely the opinion of the writer and the information provided is not to be relied upon. Always do your own due diligence and contact a investment professional.
You have to dig deeper to get the correct answer. And before I get into it I would like to say I am not a goldbug, I do not forecast 10,000 dollar gold. I think 1800 is a more reasonable estimate.
Anyways lets DIG deeper
There has been a uptick in M&A in the whole sector and junior mining stocks are up 100's of percent in the last few months. This is a value sector as it has been a dog on the street for a couple of years.
Auy seems overvalued at 22x earnings but it trades at these multiples because everyone is looking for a buyout offer.
After the crash of 2008 companies like Teck and Auy went up 1000s of percentage points in a matter of months. They are almost at 2008 levels again. This is a buying opportunity of a lifetime.
Have a well diversified portfolio but really load up on hard assets gold, copper, oil, silver etc. These are always going to be the fundamentals of the economy. Other companies come and go but hard assets are forever. Apple may go under if they run out of innovation but someone will replace them and remember they will need metals and materials to make product! Pablo if you want me to run a more in-depth analysis on Yamana or any other holding you have feel free to PM me. I will go do in-depth research whenever I have sometime and tell you what I think.
Remember guys what we read on the internet are opinions and should not constituted as investment advice.
As always, this article is solely the opinion of the writer and the information provided is not to be relied upon. Always do your own due diligence and contact a investment professional.
Thanks for that.
Right on cue, AUY popped a bit today.
Right on cue, AUY popped a bit today.
JHZR2
Staff member
I'm certainly not seeing a rational reason to buy metals other than the irrational desire by some to own it versus currency. Plus the commodity prices are too low to support the production of many of the miners,
JHZR2 you have helped me on a few questions so I will break this question down for you.
Firstly mining is a very cyclical cycle. Secondly when miners cant support production they shut down the mine. When they shut down the mine prices go up. Also when prices are too low the junior companies STOP looking for new reserves when they stop looking for new reserves prices go up because we take out millions of tons of commodities out of the ground everyday. THEY NEED TO BE REPLACED.
Secondly this is true for all commodities in general all the easy stuff has been taken out we are going deeper and deeper now to retrieve them. So prices will remain high regardless and to top this all off there are almost 3 billion people aka china and india that have started to become wealthy they will want to increase there living standards. Fun fact china is now the largest auto buyer in the world.
Firstly mining is a very cyclical cycle. Secondly when miners cant support production they shut down the mine. When they shut down the mine prices go up. Also when prices are too low the junior companies STOP looking for new reserves when they stop looking for new reserves prices go up because we take out millions of tons of commodities out of the ground everyday. THEY NEED TO BE REPLACED.
Secondly this is true for all commodities in general all the easy stuff has been taken out we are going deeper and deeper now to retrieve them. So prices will remain high regardless and to top this all off there are almost 3 billion people aka china and india that have started to become wealthy they will want to increase there living standards. Fun fact china is now the largest auto buyer in the world.
JHZR2
Staff member
Thanks for your comments. I fundamentally agree about real commodities. My angle is more regarding owning silver and gold metal because one is trying to offset any supposed money printing or inflation... Given how metals prices have increased vs inflation the last few years.
I was buying metals in the late 90s when central banks were dumping them and it was doom and gloom for gold especially.
Other mining and commodities for essential industrial metals (sure Ag, Ir, Rh, Pt, Pd are used a lot) is a different story. I'm just hesitant on gold for owning gold's sake, or to play gold price swings.
Maybe I'm wrong... I just see a lot of weakness in metals and a lot of unjustified run up from years ago.
Miners stop producing = no revenues. Too expensive to extract = no revenue or even a loss. That's where we are at now it seems. What am I missing.
Thanks!
I was buying metals in the late 90s when central banks were dumping them and it was doom and gloom for gold especially.
Other mining and commodities for essential industrial metals (sure Ag, Ir, Rh, Pt, Pd are used a lot) is a different story. I'm just hesitant on gold for owning gold's sake, or to play gold price swings.
Maybe I'm wrong... I just see a lot of weakness in metals and a lot of unjustified run up from years ago.
Miners stop producing = no revenues. Too expensive to extract = no revenue or even a loss. That's where we are at now it seems. What am I missing.
Thanks!
Originally Posted By: JHZR2
Plus the commodity prices are too low to support the production of many of the miners,
Hence the price of the commodity has to go up. Miners cut productions at these levels. The same thing happened with oil after 2009 or nat gas after 2012.
Plus the commodity prices are too low to support the production of many of the miners,
Hence the price of the commodity has to go up. Miners cut productions at these levels. The same thing happened with oil after 2009 or nat gas after 2012.
Originally Posted By: JHZR2
Thanks for your comments. I fundamentally agree about real commodities. My angle is more regarding owning silver and gold metal because one is trying to offset any supposed money printing or inflation... Given how metals prices have increased vs inflation the last few years.
You are confusing government reported CPI numbers with REAL inflation. Sorry, buddy, 2 different things. Is you cost of life increase near zero for the last several years? I didn't think so.
Thanks for your comments. I fundamentally agree about real commodities. My angle is more regarding owning silver and gold metal because one is trying to offset any supposed money printing or inflation... Given how metals prices have increased vs inflation the last few years.
You are confusing government reported CPI numbers with REAL inflation. Sorry, buddy, 2 different things. Is you cost of life increase near zero for the last several years? I didn't think so.
Pablo AUY popped another 5.2 Percent today on the feds recent announcement.
JHZR2
Staff member
Originally Posted By: friendly_jacek
Originally Posted By: JHZR2
Thanks for your comments. I fundamentally agree about real commodities. My angle is more regarding owning silver and gold metal because one is trying to offset any supposed money printing or inflation... Given how metals prices have increased vs inflation the last few years.
You are confusing government reported CPI numbers with REAL inflation. Sorry, buddy, 2 different things. Is you cost of life increase near zero for the last several years? I didn't think so.
Actually even with a baby it did. NG went down from a few years back, and gasoline is in a range that is typical-low end of post Katrina.
People can drum up all kinds of numbers if they want to.
Go ahead and put money in metals. That's your call and we can both have opinions. As I said, I was buying when there was panic because central banks were dumping it in the late 90s, so I've made more money in metals than most. That's not a brag, just a comment that he prices compared to anything else don't look all that thrilling to me. Perhaps I'll be wrong in a few years, or perhaps I'll be right.
Originally Posted By: JHZR2
Thanks for your comments. I fundamentally agree about real commodities. My angle is more regarding owning silver and gold metal because one is trying to offset any supposed money printing or inflation... Given how metals prices have increased vs inflation the last few years.
You are confusing government reported CPI numbers with REAL inflation. Sorry, buddy, 2 different things. Is you cost of life increase near zero for the last several years? I didn't think so.
Actually even with a baby it did. NG went down from a few years back, and gasoline is in a range that is typical-low end of post Katrina.
People can drum up all kinds of numbers if they want to.
Go ahead and put money in metals. That's your call and we can both have opinions. As I said, I was buying when there was panic because central banks were dumping it in the late 90s, so I've made more money in metals than most. That's not a brag, just a comment that he prices compared to anything else don't look all that thrilling to me. Perhaps I'll be wrong in a few years, or perhaps I'll be right.
Originally Posted By: JHZR2
Go ahead and put money in metals. That's your call and we can both have opinions. As I said, I was buying when there was panic because central banks were dumping it in the late 90s, so I've made more money in metals than most. That's not a brag, just a comment that he prices compared to anything else don't look all that thrilling to me. Perhaps I'll be wrong in a few years, or perhaps I'll be right.
Nice chart, but it's dated 2011. Gold DID peak in 2011 and has been falling since. FYI, it's 2014 now and the ratio bottomed at under 12 in 2013.
Go ahead and put money in metals. That's your call and we can both have opinions. As I said, I was buying when there was panic because central banks were dumping it in the late 90s, so I've made more money in metals than most. That's not a brag, just a comment that he prices compared to anything else don't look all that thrilling to me. Perhaps I'll be wrong in a few years, or perhaps I'll be right.
Nice chart, but it's dated 2011. Gold DID peak in 2011 and has been falling since. FYI, it's 2014 now and the ratio bottomed at under 12 in 2013.
JHZR2
Staff member
Originally Posted By: friendly_jacek
Originally Posted By: JHZR2
Plus the commodity prices are too low to support the production of many of the miners,
Hence the price of the commodity has to go up. Miners cut productions at these levels. The same thing happened with oil after 2009 or nat gas after 2012.
No it doesn't. Nothing HAS to come up. In theory the miners are cutting supply, but that doesn't mean much unless demand is in step. Of course in that time the miners have no revenue, and so I'd want to own them while they are idle why? I yield close to 10% on real production in a good number of my equity portfolios.
There is a very real chance that the production costs for some are high enough that the price driven by demand will not support.
And gold and silver are also highly manipulated.
Look at Pd or Rh or Ir if you actually want industrially relevant and rare PM.
Ag and Au are highly manipulated through various schemes, and not trustworthy plays in terms of anything short of holding physical metal, which at roughly 6% spread to spot, is costly.
Lots of people in a world of hurt from owning Ag across 2013. I was buying 90% silver coims at 3x face, lol.
Originally Posted By: JHZR2
Plus the commodity prices are too low to support the production of many of the miners,
Hence the price of the commodity has to go up. Miners cut productions at these levels. The same thing happened with oil after 2009 or nat gas after 2012.
No it doesn't. Nothing HAS to come up. In theory the miners are cutting supply, but that doesn't mean much unless demand is in step. Of course in that time the miners have no revenue, and so I'd want to own them while they are idle why? I yield close to 10% on real production in a good number of my equity portfolios.
There is a very real chance that the production costs for some are high enough that the price driven by demand will not support.
And gold and silver are also highly manipulated.
Look at Pd or Rh or Ir if you actually want industrially relevant and rare PM.
Ag and Au are highly manipulated through various schemes, and not trustworthy plays in terms of anything short of holding physical metal, which at roughly 6% spread to spot, is costly.
Lots of people in a world of hurt from owning Ag across 2013. I was buying 90% silver coims at 3x face, lol.
Gold and silver miners have broken out technically plain as day. Look at the XAU/HUI Indexes. Both at perfect bottom trendline support and breaking out of their downtrend channels.
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