:choke:
Investors....come in please!
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Blood bath today, who knows tomorrow?
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In the long run, that's a sure fire recipe for losing.
I have one wealthy Scott that would disagree with you. You just can't be the typical greedy investor who's perpetually looking for continuous gratification. You guys are like consumers too. You want it NOW. Today, tomorrow, and everywhere beyond.
OTOH, if you were in the right position and were 80% liquid the day after the infamous computer generated crash, the blue chips that took a hit would have had you sitting LARGE in a month ..while those who hung in took over a year to regain the losses. Cash in ..go back to your liquid state.
Same thing when XOM got a $5B fine for some environmental penalty for something. The stock took a $5 hit that day (I think at the time they were still at the 40/80 split thresholds as opposed to the 50/100). There was never any doubt that it was going back up in a very short time.
The only losers with that policy are those who don't have the patience to resist constantly making money.
It's not for everyone.
In the long run, that's a sure fire recipe for losing.
I have one wealthy Scott that would disagree with you. You just can't be the typical greedy investor who's perpetually looking for continuous gratification. You guys are like consumers too. You want it NOW. Today, tomorrow, and everywhere beyond.
OTOH, if you were in the right position and were 80% liquid the day after the infamous computer generated crash, the blue chips that took a hit would have had you sitting LARGE in a month ..while those who hung in took over a year to regain the losses. Cash in ..go back to your liquid state.
Same thing when XOM got a $5B fine for some environmental penalty for something. The stock took a $5 hit that day (I think at the time they were still at the 40/80 split thresholds as opposed to the 50/100). There was never any doubt that it was going back up in a very short time.
The only losers with that policy are those who don't have the patience to resist constantly making money.
It's not for everyone.
I disagree Gary; evidence shows people who invest for the long haul and forget about market timing come out ahead on average. Heck, even Kramer is now telling his followers to go with that approach so they won't shoot themselves in the foot.
Now, when you get into positions for the long haul on the dips, then yea, that's an even better way to go.
I thought you were like anti-investment! After all, the end of the economic world is coming. You gonna go all in at the bottom?
Now, when you get into positions for the long haul on the dips, then yea, that's an even better way to go.
I thought you were like anti-investment! After all, the end of the economic world is coming. You gonna go all in at the bottom?
I agree that keeping some cash on hand is a smart thing although 80% seems a bit high.
Rather than holding cash, another way to hedge is to buy inverse market ETFs to insure your portfolio. That way, you can keep buying on the dips, while using these ETFs to protect your downside. I supplemented my portfolio with DXD, SKF and SDD and they limited my losses today to 0.25%. Once the market shakes out and things start looking good again, I can sell these ETFs and maintain my pre-recession allocation.
Rather than holding cash, another way to hedge is to buy inverse market ETFs to insure your portfolio. That way, you can keep buying on the dips, while using these ETFs to protect your downside. I supplemented my portfolio with DXD, SKF and SDD and they limited my losses today to 0.25%. Once the market shakes out and things start looking good again, I can sell these ETFs and maintain my pre-recession allocation.
Shout out when - so we can jump in.
Bought a couple light positions in funds today. Too much cash as it is. Man that was the hammer....those other index down days I was actually up, but not today.
Bought a couple light positions in funds today. Too much cash as it is. Man that was the hammer....those other index down days I was actually up, but not today.
I was nicely in the green yesterday. It all went south today..
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evidence shows people who invest for the long haul and forget about market timing come out ahead on average.
I'll agree. That's "average". Keep in mind that the average average of getting rich slow is just as low as getting rich quick.
Again, you're looking at it from a "grab everything you can get" perspective on a constant basis. You're interpreting what I say as a "sit poised and strike". No. It's simply being happy with your yield in cash liquidity and BEING ABLE to take advantage of some windfall that everyone else is flatfooted on. Slam dunks ..some that I mentioned. You can't look at it from a "stock player" perspective. Day traders are those types.
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I thought you were like anti-investment!
Not at all. Celebrating my reduced avoided losses just seems disingenuous.
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You gonna go all in at the bottom?
No ..never figured they would leave me with anything of value at that point to jump in with. They're taking it out a whole new door these days.
evidence shows people who invest for the long haul and forget about market timing come out ahead on average.
I'll agree. That's "average". Keep in mind that the average average of getting rich slow is just as low as getting rich quick.
Again, you're looking at it from a "grab everything you can get" perspective on a constant basis. You're interpreting what I say as a "sit poised and strike". No. It's simply being happy with your yield in cash liquidity and BEING ABLE to take advantage of some windfall that everyone else is flatfooted on. Slam dunks ..some that I mentioned. You can't look at it from a "stock player" perspective. Day traders are those types.
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I thought you were like anti-investment!
Not at all. Celebrating my reduced avoided losses just seems disingenuous.
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You gonna go all in at the bottom?
No ..never figured they would leave me with anything of value at that point to jump in with. They're taking it out a whole new door these days.
OMG - Here's an interesting phenomena. A group of 5 of my high yield (8-11%) CEF's went ex-dividend for the January dividend in Dec (Dec 27 or so, very weird! Plus dividends due next week, early and nice, $1500 or so, but not my main point), (hang in there) Then they had a nice run up the rest of the year, and first days of 2008. So I sold a chunk of them for nice gains, proceeds go into MM. The cool thing is that I get very nearly a month of full interest in my MM on the proceeds, even considering settlement dates.
My normal scheme would have the proceeds arriving on the 25-28th or so and not full MM interest. Ok not as exciting as oil. But sweet.
Note: The day Gary Allen goes bullish is the day to get the heTT out of the market.
I'm not one to tell someone their investment schemes are inferior. Unless they ask.
Note: The day Gary Allen goes bullish is the day to get the heTT out of the market.
Man, it's sure easy to mention slam dunks that happened years ago.
Originally Posted By: Drew99GT
Man, it's sure easy to mention slam dunks that happened years ago.
Originally Posted By: Pablonator
....those "slam dunks" are rarely that and rare at that.
Man, it's sure easy to mention slam dunks that happened years ago.
Originally Posted By: Pablonator
....those "slam dunks" are rarely that and rare at that.
Another problem with finding slam dunks is that you have to actually track a whole bunch of individual companies over time to find them. To me, a good strategy doesn't just maximize payoffs but it also minimizes time spent thinking about it. If I have to spend more than 1/2 hour a day on my portfolio, then that is a very costly strategy.
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Originally Posted By: Drew99GT
Man, it's sure easy to mention slam dunks that happened years ago.
Those were just the obvious. Again, you're assuming that you risk your entire 80% liquidity on ONE non-risk.
Sure they're years ago. But what position, if you even had a position of like liquidity when those things occurred, would you be in now? You can't even imagine it since you were either a plebe or neck deep into "growing every day". This guy's money grew every day too. It grew slower some days ..it grew greatly on others.
Sounds like none of you ever had the capacity to conduct yourselves in any reserved manner other than stuff like DRPS. Otherwise it's all some savvy mombo-limbo of exclusive mastery with varied performance. YMMV. If you're average investors, you will make average returns. Those who yield higher, are exceptional ..but given the vast number of much more savvy bigger players that lose, you would be termed "lucky" in most sensible "outside of the delusional bubble" analysis.
That is, your "exceptional" status had be be gained via some unconventional tactic ..otherwise ..everyone would be right there with you. Hence, it is either as obscure and unconventional as my friend's technique ...or you have to admit that you're just plain lucky and the roulette wheel stopped on your number.
It cannot work for everyone.
Man, it's sure easy to mention slam dunks that happened years ago.
Those were just the obvious. Again, you're assuming that you risk your entire 80% liquidity on ONE non-risk.
Sure they're years ago. But what position, if you even had a position of like liquidity when those things occurred, would you be in now? You can't even imagine it since you were either a plebe or neck deep into "growing every day". This guy's money grew every day too. It grew slower some days ..it grew greatly on others.
Sounds like none of you ever had the capacity to conduct yourselves in any reserved manner other than stuff like DRPS. Otherwise it's all some savvy mombo-limbo of exclusive mastery with varied performance. YMMV. If you're average investors, you will make average returns. Those who yield higher, are exceptional ..but given the vast number of much more savvy bigger players that lose, you would be termed "lucky" in most sensible "outside of the delusional bubble" analysis.
That is, your "exceptional" status had be be gained via some unconventional tactic ..otherwise ..everyone would be right there with you. Hence, it is either as obscure and unconventional as my friend's technique ...or you have to admit that you're just plain lucky and the roulette wheel stopped on your number.
It cannot work for everyone.
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That's where all of his major gains came from. He wasn't hurting to begin with.
Essentially it's sitting there waiting for most of your to befall a hardship ..and capitalizing on it. You can't maneuver since you're tied up in the sinking ships when the torpedoes hit. He's sitting there saying "Thank you very much".
Just a different approach.
Essentially it's sitting there waiting for most of your to befall a hardship ..and capitalizing on it. You can't maneuver since you're tied up in the sinking ships when the torpedoes hit. He's sitting there saying "Thank you very much".
Just a different approach.
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Well, there are many ways to skin a cat and his strategy is certainly one of them. Another way is to buy bear ETFs rather than your standard equities. For instance, if you would have bought SKF on Monday at $97, on Friday you could have sold it for nearly $113. Recessions are very easy to predict.....a [censored] of a lot easier than predicting what individual stocks will do. From August to December, there were plenty of warning signs about the impending recession so buying these inverse ETFs were your slam dunk for this last quarter.
Speaking of recession, the news of the rising unemployment rate was a big cause of Friday's drop.
Add in reduced industrial production, higher oil prices, subprime mortgage meltdown, slumping auto sales (and housing), and I think we're in for a very rough 08.
Add in reduced industrial production, higher oil prices, subprime mortgage meltdown, slumping auto sales (and housing), and I think we're in for a very rough 08.
Originally Posted By: Gary Allan
That's where all of his major gains came from. He wasn't hurting to begin with.
Essentially it's sitting there waiting for most of your to befall a hardship ..and capitalizing on it. You can't maneuver since you're tied up in the sinking ships when the torpedoes hit. He's sitting there saying "Thank you very much".
Just a different approach.
Yea, well my friend is richer than yours. nanner nanner nanner
That's where all of his major gains came from. He wasn't hurting to begin with.
Essentially it's sitting there waiting for most of your to befall a hardship ..and capitalizing on it. You can't maneuver since you're tied up in the sinking ships when the torpedoes hit. He's sitting there saying "Thank you very much".
Just a different approach.
Yea, well my friend is richer than yours. nanner nanner nanner
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