Hydrogen Neue Klasse EV?

[alarmguy]

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EV manufacturers will always be able to undercut ICE prices, once both industries are up to speed. Recycling (parting) an EV will be cheaper because simpler. Everything will be simpler.

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This is speculation. BEVs cannot at this point. Also let’s not forget people pay for convenience in the USA. BEVs are not the future of all things for family vehicles. It will be part of the mix but never the majority. It’s not possible and the lack of interest from the public proves it

 

[alarmguy]

Super odd post. You say on one hand that people are way too closed minded on H2, yet, there's no way ever that the electric grid is going to replace gasoline?
…

Correct
The electric grid will never replace gasoline vehicles in the lifetime of anyone in this forum.
H2 is a developing technology that has potential as all the major car manufacturers are exploring.

In the meantime, in the USA gasoline will rule as the majority for a very long time

 

[4WD]

The problem is you don't really understand the scale of the problem here, and since you have me on ignore, I'm not going to bother getting into the mathematics of it (which I've done before), but I can assure you, the amount of power generation you need to generate the H2 does not workout favourably for H2 over BEV.

No, we don't, but we are far closer to having it than we are to replacing gas stations with hydrogen ones, let alone the generation needed to produce all that H2. BEV's are "easy", because you can charge them at home, so they really don't need the same level of infrastructure that gas and diesel cars need, while hydrogen cars need even MORE extensive (and complex) infrastructure because of its increased level of hazard and considerable challenges with handling and storing it.

This is a lot like the argument that because we are investing in fusion, that we should abandon fission and just ignore all the problems with fusion because a few blokes are claiming it's the future. You could spend a day explaining to somebody why fusion is hard, sustained fusion harder, and net positive fusion harder still, let alone meaningful net positive, but if their argument is perpetually "oh, we'll figure it out, it's the future" at some point you just have to abandon the conversation because the person either can't, or won't, understand the details that underpin the challenges.

Well, you know how I chime in and say EV’s need batteries but fixed installations don’t … Kinda see the same thing with hydrogen …
Keep the volatile aspects behind tall fences …
Send end product to all users via wire …

 

[OVERKILL]

Well, you know how I chime in and say EV’s need batteries but fixed installations don’t … Kinda see the same thing with hydrogen …
Keep the volatile aspects behind tall fences …
Send end product to all users via wire …

Yes, despite my skepticism on hydrogen GT's, I think they are far more viable than hydrogen powered personal conveyance going mainstream. Put more plainly, I think we are far more likely to see some inroads to success with hydrogen for generating electricity than we are for hydrogen as an energy storage medium used for personal conveyance.

 

[Brons2]

Correct
The electric grid will never replace gasoline vehicles in the lifetime of anyone in this forum.

Based on what objective criteria? Not oil company FUD, not personal opinion, actual objective criteria.

Maybe not in my lifetime, but someone who's in their 20s that's on this web forum? I wouldn't bet against it.

 

[4WD]

Yes, despite my skepticism on hydrogen GT's, I think they are far more viable than hydrogen powered personal conveyance going mainstream. Put more plainly, I think we are far more likely to see some inroads to success with hydrogen for generating electricity than we are for hydrogen as an energy storage medium used for personal conveyance.

That’s the answer to many things when grownups make the “decide” and not —- well, guys

 

[OVERKILL]

The electric grid will never replace gasoline vehicles in the lifetime of anyone in this forum.

That you don't see the contradiction between the above statement and this one:

H2 is a developing technology that has potential as all the major car manufacturers are exploring.

Is the problem.

In BOTH instances, you are demanding the electricity grid to replace gasoline. With BEV's, it's directly, with H2, it's a bit more Rube Goldberg, but the impact is the same (well, worse actually, but we'll leave that "as is" for the sake of this discussion).

 

[4WD]

That you don't see the contradiction between the above statement and this one:


Is the problem.

In BOTH instances, you are demanding the electricity grid to replace gasoline. With BEV's, it's directly, with H2, it's a bit more Rube Goldberg, but the impact is the same (well, worse actually, but we'll leave that "as is" for the sake of this discussion).

Electricity remains the common denominator - how you make it will become the spokes to the hub …

 

[4WD]

Based on what objective criteria? Not oil company FUD, not personal opinion, actual objective criteria.

Maybe not in my lifetime, but someone who's in their 20s that's on this web forum? I wouldn't bet against it.

FUD?
Get out of Austin more and realize who can pull this off …

 

[goblin]

This is speculation. BEVs cannot at this point. Also let’s not forget people pay for convenience in the USA. BEVs are not the future of all things for family vehicles. It will be part of the mix but never the majority. It’s not possible and the lack of interest from the public proves it

The only thing that is speculation is that you actually would be looking for a discussion rather than for a monologue, and I for one will not hedge any bet on that. Using more "we", "let's" and "people" will not make your position less isolated. There were plenty of knowledgeable adults here that put your speculations on the wall for all to see.

 

[Brons2]

Correct
The electric grid will never replace gasoline vehicles in the lifetime of anyone in this forum.

That's a bold statement, surely there is some sory of objective methodology or research behind it?

And what about the young guys around here, for someone who's in their early 20s that may live to their 80s, well, that's a long time. Nobody would have thought 60 years ago we'd all be running around with phones in our pockets with the computational ability to run circles around anything made 60 years ago including mainframes.

And to what degree constitutes "replacement" ? A specific percentage?

 

[alarmguy]

That's a bold statement, surely there is some sory of objective methodology or research behind it?

And what about the young guys around here, for someone who's in their early 20s that may live to their 80s, well, that's a long time. Nobody would have thought 60 years ago we'd all be running around with phones in our pockets with the computational ability to run circles around anything made 60 years ago including mainframes.

And to what degree constitutes "replacement" ? A specific percentage?

All good, someone will be right and someone wrong. Everything is speculation until proven otherwise. I already explained my thought process on why I think solutions to issues can make H2 more viable then re-wiring an entire nation complete with generation stations when we cant even meet current requirements .
H2 is not proven and BEV not proven to be capable of replacing gasoline which wont happen in either of our lifetime. But if it did, I think H2 has a far better chance then BEVs

Your statement about cell phones is exactly why my thought process is what it is. Most in here think H2 is not possible. Same as those who would have thought cell phones were not possible?
Yet, the industry spends billions developing technology and propulsion types that can use H2. That includes aircraft too.

 

[Brons2]

FUD?
Get out of Austin more and realize who can pull this off …

I may work in the Austin area but I live in the sticks. It's working fine for me and considering the swarms of Teslas that I see on the local FM roads, it's working fine for a lot of people.

 

[4WD]

I may work in the Austin area but I live in the sticks. It's working fine for me and considering the swarms of Teslas that I see on the local FM roads, it's working fine for a lot of people.

My point is that real hydrogen energy - at first perhaps to support their own low carbon product solutions - will come from companies like XOM who have more PhD engineers than other companies/institutions have engineers total …

 

[alarmguy]

The only thing that is speculation is that you actually would be looking for a discussion rather than for a monologue, and I for one will not hedge any bet on that. Using more "we", "let's" and "people" will not make your position less isolated. There were plenty of knowledgeable adults here that put your speculations on the wall for all to see.

ok, whatever this means which is nothing so you must be right?

 

[goblin]

I don't need to be right when the laws of physics and chemistry are. I'm modest like that.

 

[Brons2]

All good, someone will be right and someone wrong. Everything is speculation until proven otherwise. I already explained my thought process.
H2 is not proven and BEV not proven to be capable of replacing gasoline which wont happen in either of our lifetime.

Your statement about cell phones is exactly why my thought process is what it is. Most in here think H2 is not possible. Same as those who would have thought cell phones were not possible?
Yet, the industry spends billions developing technology and propulsion types that can use H2. That includes aircraft too.

I gave you an out with the percentage statement. They don't work for everyone. I'm sure you could come up with a million reasons they don't work for everyone, I could too.

Here's my prediction for 25 years out in the USA, because based on averages, that's about my remaining life span. Of course nothing is guaranteed, I could drop dead tomorrow, I certainly pray not, but anyway.

Class 8/Medium duty: Remain mostly diesel, i.e., over 4/5ths/80%. Some EV truck usage in regional delivery haul e.g. retail trucks.
Tradesman with trailer/Private with heavy tow application: Remain ICE HD pickup gas/diesel over 2/3rds.
Tradesman without trailer/Private with occasional tow: Stastically significant EV uptake, 1/3rd to 1/2 EV penetration, rest ICE
Urban cowboys (half tons for vanity): 1/2 to 2/3rds EV penetration.
Crossovers/Cars: 75%+ EV uptake. Folks in isolated rural areas remain ICE.

Other prediction: USA population in 2050: 550 million.

Percentage of hydrogen vehicles, all classes: less than 1%.

 

[alarmguy]

I gave you an out with the percentage statement. They don't work for everyone. I'm sure you could come up with a million reasons they don't work for everyone, I could too.

Here's my prediction for 25 years out in the USA, because based on averages, that's about my remaining life span. Of course nothing is guaranteed, I could drop dead tomorrow, I certainly pray not, but anyway.

Class 8/Medium duty: Remain mostly diesel, i.e., over 4/5ths/80%. Some EV truck usage in regional delivery haul e.g. retail trucks.
Tradesman with trailer/Private with heavy tow application: Remain ICE HD pickup gas/diesel over 2/3rds.
Tradesman without trailer/Private with occasional tow: Stastically significant EV uptake, 1/3rd to 1/2 EV penetration, rest ICE
Urban cowboys (half tons for vanity): 1/2 to 2/3rds EV penetration.
Crossovers/Cars: 75%+ EV uptake. Folks in isolated rural areas remain ICE.

Other prediction: USA population in 2050: 550 million.

SO know we know each others predictions. Will check back in 15 years, not so sure I have 25 left, though I hope so.
My only prediction is BEVs will never be the majority and it will be gasoline and depending on advancements H2 or some other type of portable energy. If one of these is developed BEVs will be as popular as those suit case cell phones. However they will always serve a purpose. Much like electric golf carts are no longer just for gold and now a transportation vehicle in my huge community. I do see BEVs having a place for certain percent of the population. But not the majority as they already missed the huge projections of sales increase calculations of years ago.
Heck and this is with providing free $7,500 to walk in a dealer and buy one. $7,500 from the taxpayers and drive away.

Lively debate, I like conversation and debate but others not so much so. All good. If everyone agreed on everything technology would never advance. Just like the cell phone you mentioned as an example. It's the outliers that advance.

 

[goblin]

...I like conversation and debate but others not so much so...

Is this a joke
You seem to like debating whether laws of physics and chemistry that don't fit your narrative are debatable, peppering them with side research projects that are not applicable to any resemblance of workable solutions at scale, and you're the one mistreated by the rigid backwards mob ?

Please point on this here doll where reality and the laws of physics hurt you.

 

[OVERKILL]

SO know we know each others predictions. Will check back in 15 years, not so sure I have 25 left, though I hope so.
My only prediction is BEVs will never be the majority and it will be gasoline and depending on advancements H2 or some other type of portable energy. If one of these is developed BEVs will be as popular as those suit case cell phones. However they will always serve a purpose. Much like electric golf carts are no longer just for gold and now a transportation vehicle in my huge community. I do see BEVs having a place for certain percent of the population. But not the majority as they already missed the huge projections of sales increase calculations of years ago.
Heck and this is with providing free $7,500 to walk in a dealer and buy one. $7,500 from the taxpayers and drive away.

Lively debate, I like conversation and debate but others not so much so. All good. If everyone agreed on everything technology would never advance. Just like the cell phone you mentioned as an example. It's the outliers that advance.

If you truly liked lively debate you wouldn't have me on ignore.