European OEM's and their EV timelines

I predict they are gonna go belly up any day now.
Elon's whack.

Just kidding. Tesla is 10 years ahead of everyone. From an EV tech standpoint, no one is even close.
They are a pure play EV company which is a huge advantage over "the major companies".
And then there is that awesome market cap might...
There's lots of examples where this isn't true. If you want to go back to the old days, there was CP/M which was better than DOS but IBM selected Microsoft and the rest is history. Then there was AltaVista which was way before Google. Even now GE has come out with 12-14 megawatt windmills, the largest so far. They're not really a presence before that.

First mover advantage doesn't always hold up in the long term. We shall see.

As for the 10 year advantage, it may seem like that and I'd say maybe the 1st generation won't quite catch up, but it only takes 3-4 years for the 2nd generation to come out. And I'm not a fan of Tesla because there's no discounting and you're stuck with just the manufacturer for parts. They also seem over priced for what you get so that's why I think other EVs out there will at least be able to compete on price and service.
 
Every mass market except for maybe some valley and Texas will just look like a mass market. Where a first serious manufacturer enters by introducing a first few models this looks like that: https://edition.cnn.com/2021/01/05/business/norway-electric-cars-vw-tesla/index.html

As that other manufacturer won't stop there and another like Volvo is tripling production only now but the number of such manufacturers entering the market is not only tripling, Tesla will be noted under also ran. Not even market cap. will revolve around isolated valley dreams and Texas production for much longer. Tesla will never arrive at any dominance internationally and TSLA is a market cap. searching for ideas to refresh phantasies. If they become absorbed in a merger like the angler fish with his wife now or become a major over some tour de force or just sell what will be left of their automotive "disruption" story, doesn't mean much in the market. And stock market will not even wait for reading about gravest decisions made.

Forum sections dominated by activism are only out of touch.

These electric days start ups don't start up with garage production. Vehicles become competition before their model names are recognized by the dreaming crowds. A fresh Li Auto's niche start up looks like that: https://www.futurecar.com/4317/Chin...i-Auto-Reaches-Sales-of-30000-Units-This-Year
A BYD signet reads like a BYD signet on buses around the world before TSLA produces a second Cybertruck teaser. Reads on buses as well as somewhere on the Han and on the new hybrid vehicle that all aren't ten years ahead but serious ouvertures to market shares.

Also ran is all Tesla can. And be shown niches and segments, trends and developments...

Ugliest wheels on the Lordstown? Yes. Of course. TSLA in the meantime may go to the moon from just looking at the Lordstown wheel – decoupled as can be. If the storytellers can ramp up impetus wealth can go everywhere...
 
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It is a given that all of the major manufacturers will need to have a few EV's in their lineups in order to be competitive.

- How much money has Tesla spent in the last 12 or so years in R&D, building state of the art factories with state of the art robotic production equipment ?
- Where will other automakers get that kind of capital ?
- How long will it take other automakers to design and test their EV;s taking very special steps to ensure that their vehicles are truly competitive and not POS's that are kludges of existing vehicles just to have something for their dealers to sell,, update their production lines and implement their visions ?

Given the past history of US automakers, I have serious doubts of their being able to accomplish any kind of meaningful market share in the EV market. Maybe the Germans or Japanese makers will eventually.

Maybe Tesla will eventually be an "also ran". Maybe they will be eventually absorbed in a merger. Of course for that to happen they would have to be so devalued as a corporation that another maker could even come up with the cash to buy them.
How is that going to happen unless those other makers have some much revenue coming in that acquiring Tesla is a possibility ?

I may never own a Tesla. They don't really meet my needs. But I have put my money where my mouth is and will stay along for the ride for the next few years.
 
People keep rehashing the arguements of the past 10 years.
Yeah, they should be an also ran anytime now... Even though Tesla has disrupted the auto and business world.
Can you name an auto world disruption of this magnatude?

Musk is Fortune's Businessperson of the Year for 2020. There is a reason for it.
 
As Elon is no super villain requiring a super hero or 007 to relativize him, Tesla has never been disruptive. The Lithium and the climate crisis, the Ms. Greta and the dieselgate were.

NIO eT7 need not halve its 0-60 figure from 3.9s to the S-Plaid's 2.1 to take away orders and not be ten years behind in about a year from now, right? EQS may only need this MBUX to take away some more, any E-GMP may only need 800V to take some and any e-TNGA may only need a solid state battery to again do the same. Some Ultium may only need to be positioned nearer the wallet and some Acura only require a signet not being an elephant. An i7 may only need to be bavarian and mention the Kini, you know?

Tesla didn't make it. Never could. If they bought Toyota or GM next week for a fusion they'd still be the male angler fish, right? You're being ironic and not exactly tectonic.
 
But Tesla still sells it's cars at a loss... They make up for that loss by selling CO2 certificates, but if other players are going to enter the market with EV, the certificates won't be worth as much...

Tesla is in danger of becoming a one trick pony. They will sell because of the power. But energy efficency isn't any better than for example a Kona EV, only the battery is bigger. Tesla had an advantage that their Model S looked sleek and like a sports coupe, not wonky like prettty much every other EV. That benefit will also dissappear soon.

Some people say Tesla build quality is poor aswell, that could bite them in the ass aswell.

The battery tech isn't special either, so where is the 10 years advance really? It's Panasonic cells, last I looked.

I'd still consider a tesla because of the power though, if I was in the EV market.
 
But Tesla still sells it's cars at a loss... They make up for that loss by selling CO2 certificates, but if other players are going to enter the market with EV, the certificates won't be worth as much...

Tesla is in danger of becoming a one trick pony. They will sell because of the power. But energy efficency isn't any better than for example a Kona EV, only the battery is bigger. Tesla had an advantage that their Model S looked sleek and like a sports coupe, not wonky like prettty much every other EV. That benefit will also dissappear soon.

Some people say Tesla build quality is poor aswell, that could bite them in the ass aswell.

The battery tech isn't special either, so where is the 10 years advance really? It's Panasonic cells, last I looked.

I'd still consider a tesla because of the power though, if I was in the EV market.

Lets see what the 2020 financials look like before we decide the cars are sold at a loss.

Remember Tesla is also the gas station in many instances, as well as certificates, and coming soon - subscription meaning they will be getting ongoing software revenue from most of their cars.

Teslas current profit loss aside - There is much more margin in a Tesla than any other BEV for a number of reasons.

No other manufacturer comes close and must leverage their ICE line to fund the BEV.
The better the other guys EV's sell, the worse their bottom line.
Look no further than VW's dealer margin on the ID products. Dealer have no incentive to sell them over ICE.

Teslas unique investment in assembly ease like giant casting machines that will further bump margin per vehicle.

Quality is and has been continually getting better. There are always monday/ friday and first run cars.
It will be interesting to see if the China cars are on average better than their American or German cars.

When comparing BEV's everything has to be accounted for. comparing out of segment cars isn't usually valid like in the ICE world.
One car is a rocket the other a dog - the dog usually more efficient.
A car that is electrically gimped will always use less energy than a comparable car with better performance.

Overall Efficiency isnt something a lone metric can establish but is a holistic combination of measurements.
Lets say one car gets 5mi per KWH, and another 4.7, but the car that gets 5.0 Miles per KWH only charges at 50KW, and the other 100KW.

The car that gets 5m per kWh goes from 0-60 in 8 seconds and the car that gets 4.7 does it in 5 seconds - are these cars even comparable in the real world?
 
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But you've seen the timelines.. The EV are coming, starting this year.

Over here, we didn't deliver ANY ICE cars since september to reduce the fines, only EV or PHEV got the paperwork from Hyundai to register them. Others had to wait until 2021. Same story for other brands with an EV line up. So the incentive to sell them will be there, especially in those (13?) states in the US that use CO2 certificats.

Tesla sold 400 million dollar worth of CO2 certs to get a net profit of 100 million dollar in the 3rd quarter of 2020. No certs = 300 million loss... if the internet is to be believed.
 
People keep rehashing the arguements of the past 10 years.
Yeah, they should be an also ran anytime now... Even though Tesla has disrupted the auto and business world.
Can you name an auto world disruption of this magnatude?

Musk is Fortune's Businessperson of the Year for 2020. There is a reason for it.

There were about 62 million cars sold worldwide in 2020. Tesla sold 500,000. Not that big of a disruption if not that many people are buying them.

Ford sells almost double that number just in F150's. How many F150 buyers do you think will switch to a Tesla?
 
There were about 62 million cars sold worldwide in 2020. Tesla sold 500,000. Not that big of a disruption if not that many people are buying them.

Ford sells almost double that number just in F150's. How many F150 buyers do you think will switch to a Tesla?
It has nothing to do with number of cars sold.
Tesla has turned the automobile industry on its head; every major car maker is fighting to deliver an EV.
Tesla is the #1 selling luxury sedan in the world.
How many luxury cars does Ford sell?
 
Dunno Ford is nowhere anymore in my part of Europe. Hardly even see a fiesta or focus anymore where Ford use to be a top 5 seller...

There's legislation coming in Europe that will ban sales of ICE, no wonder the car makers are fighting to deliver them. Nothing to do with Tesla as such
 
It has nothing to do with number of cars sold.
Tesla has turned the automobile industry on its head; every major car maker is fighting to deliver an EV.
Tesla is the #1 selling luxury sedan in the world.
How many luxury cars does Ford sell?

Considering some of those trucks can go for 80k, they're basically in the luxury car price range. Lots of rich people drive trucks so they can blend in. I think Jimmy Fallon bought an F150 on his show at one point. Then you see lots of sports players drive trucks after the game.

Usually when companies are really big like Microsoft, Cisco, HP, Coke, etc., you can just buy the completion and either integrate them or just shut them down. Tesla is actually big enough that it might be able to do that, might tank the stock if it did though, but that'd be one cheap way to get access to more factories and employees quickly. Mercedes/Chrysler one didn't go well though so that's also a consideration.
 
There were about 62 million cars sold worldwide in 2020. Tesla sold 500,000. Not that big of a disruption if not that many people are buying them.

Ford sells almost double that number just in F150's. How many F150 buyers do you think will switch to a Tesla?



True, but not altogether meaningful.

Divide those 62 million vehicles by segment and market availability
(no point comparing a tata rickshaw only available in India to anything but it may sell like hotcakes)

Most half tons take the section 176 deduction which is the main reason why they can sell for 80K.

Eliminate all non segment comparisons.

Look at where tesla landed in each manufacturers segment and start comparing there.

Tesla disrupted the most profitable segments of the market, by either raping everyone in segment of creating enough disruption in it to eat into the other players.

Now imagine a tesla entering more and more segments.
 
Considering some of those trucks can go for 80k, they're basically in the luxury car price range. Lots of rich people drive trucks so they can blend in. I think Jimmy Fallon bought an F150 on his show at one point. Then you see lots of sports players drive trucks after the game.

Usually when companies are really big like Microsoft, Cisco, HP, Coke, etc., you can just buy the completion and either integrate them or just shut them down. Tesla is actually big enough that it might be able to do that, might tank the stock if it did though, but that'd be one cheap way to get access to more factories and employees quickly. Mercedes/Chrysler one didn't go well though so that's also a consideration.
Tesla is the #1 luxury sedan. F-150s are trucks regardless of price.
I suggest you look at F vs TSLA growth over the past 10 years. And value by market cap.

You have a point about Tesla's global distribution problems; they currently cannot build and deliver cars fast enough to meet demand.
Until recently, Fremont, CA (ex NUMMI) has been supplying WW sales.
Giga Shanghai is making Model 3s and ramping Model Y production.
Tesla is building Giga Berlin and Giga Austin as we speak.
Once completed and ramped (years from now), Tesla will have > 7M annual vehicle capacity.

As a side note, I have 3 cars from the Fremont plant, which is just up the road from our house.
1965 4-4-2 (GM plant, they also made trucks and El Caminos), 1993 Toyota 4WD (NUMMI, 350K miles, still in service) and our Model 3.
They owe me a free car, right?
 
Where did they really land? Aren't you two permanently juggling between looking at EV on the one hand, which is rather meaningless where no Lexus, S-class, Cadillac, Jaguar, BMW and so on are luxury-EV yet, and just US-markets on the other hand? Which is about as telling when judging the parallel bubble societies producing these truths.
Lexus is hardly suffering from building and selling cars for earnings, neither anyone else. Volkswagen's funny Diess when sounding as if he saw financial problems is looking at the Musk, then looking around for microphones letting him fight the union cheaply he hopes to see under pressure from the Musk. That's all.
Leave your bubbles for a few minutes each day and try to have a look at some non-TSLA particles of the world. You'll get to know Tesla & TSLA.

Tin Lizzy kind of survived to this day while the Bentley Boys of le Mans lost their cars and got them back as VW.
 
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Where did they really land? Aren't you two permanently juggling between looking at EV on the one hand, which is rather meaningless where no Lexus, S-class, Cadillac, Jaguar, BMW and so on are luxury-EV yet, and just US-markets on the other hand? Which is about as telling when judging the parallel bubble societies producing these truths.
Lexus is hardly suffering from building and selling cars for earnings, neither anyone else. Volkswagen's funny Diess when sounding as if he saw financial problems is looking at the Musk, then looking around for microphones letting him fight the union cheaply he hopes to see under pressure from the Musk. That's all.
Leave your bubbles for a few minutes each day and try to have a look at some non-TSLA particles of the world. You'll get to know Tesla & TSLA.

Tin Lizzy kind of survived to this day while the Bentley Boys of le Mans lost their cars and got them back as VW.

Don't lump me in with him. Lots of luxury sales went to trucks and SUVs which is why the market for luxury sedans has gone down for those. They didn't all just buy Teslas. Compared to Mercedes interiors and options, Tesla just doesn't strike me as luxury even though it has the luxury price.
 
True, but not altogether meaningful.

Divide those 62 million vehicles by segment and market availability
(no point comparing a tata rickshaw only available in India to anything but it may sell like hotcakes)

Most half tons take the section 176 deduction which is the main reason why they can sell for 80K.

Eliminate all non segment comparisons.

Look at where tesla landed in each manufacturers segment and start comparing there.

Tesla disrupted the most profitable segments of the market, by either raping everyone in segment of creating enough disruption in it to eat into the other players.

Now imagine a tesla entering more and more segments.

I think you're working pretty hard to make a case. The market isn't static. There's things going on regardless of whether Telsa is the cause or not such as the switch to trucks/suv's leading to a decline in sedan sales. You can either say it's due to Tesla stealing them or that those buyers are just going to trucks/suvs. You'd have a good case for Tesla if the truck/suv sales were static and luxury car sales declined and Tesla increased. But that's not what happened. All the auto makers compete with other auto makers, people switch from Audi, BMW, Mercedes and other brands all the time. The standard cycle is that one maker comes out with something and steals some market share, then they come out with something else to steal it back. It's not a done deal that Telsa will maintain market share. One thing car companies do is refresh their fleet every 3-4 years to generate new interest, Tesla doesn't seem to be doing that yet. You could look at the Prius, when sales were skyrocketing, people though they were going to take over the world, then more competition came out and sales have been declining for a while.
 
Not you, my uncle Dave is spreading so much additional Gigajargon.

Could somebody please draw an approximate curve for the ramping up of combined non-Gigaluxury prod cap to put the 7M into perspective? No ideas what the figures might be? Why reproduce the 7M then? Because it sounds giga?
Numbers will hurt before the first S-Plaids will arrive, the first Cybertrucks will be shown and the first Baby-Teslas will be designed.

A world of more and more non-Giga platforms on the rise perceived as a world of more and more segments Tesla may conquer and dominate...
 
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Not you, my uncle Dave is spreading so much additional Gigajargon.

Could somebody please draw an approximate curve for the ramping up of combined non-Gigaluxury prod cap to put the 7M into perspective? No ideas what the figures might be? Why reproduce the 7M then? Because it sounds giga?
Numbers will hurt before the first S-Plaids will arrive, the first Cybertrucks will be shown and the first Baby-Teslas will be designed.

A world of more and more non-Giga platforms on the rise perceived as a world of more and more segments Tesla may conquer and dominate...
I've user the word twice in total and not once in this thread.
 
Where did they really land? Aren't you two permanently juggling between looking at EV on the one hand, which is rather meaningless where no Lexus, S-class, Cadillac, Jaguar, BMW and so on are luxury-EV yet, and just US-markets on the other hand? Which is about as telling when judging the parallel bubble societies producing these truths.
Lexus is hardly suffering from building and selling cars for earnings, neither anyone else. Volkswagen's funny Diess when sounding as if he saw financial problems is looking at the Musk, then looking around for microphones letting him fight the union cheaply he hopes to see under pressure from the Musk. That's all.
Leave your bubbles for a few minutes each day and try to have a look at some non-TSLA particles of the world. You'll get to know Tesla & TSLA.

Tin Lizzy kind of survived to this day while the Bentley Boys of le Mans lost their cars and got them back as VW.
You might wanna reconsider your Lexus thoughts, as well as for all lux car makers.
I am close with a local Lexus dealer; CA (and specifically Silicon Valley) is the biggest Lexus market in the world.
I have bought 3 cars from Putnam Lexus in Redwood City; I was introduced to the GM. They treat me very well.
He told me Lexus is terrified of Tesla, especially the Model Y as the RX is Lexus' bread and butter.

I think you know Lexus (and Toyota) is scrambling to build a series of EVs. All the lux dealers are, right?

Tesla sold more Model 3 electric sedans worldwide in 2020 than the next five most popular all-electric cars combined.
When the 2020 sales numbers are released, I am willing to bet the Model 3 crushed the BMW 3/4 Series global deliveries.
 
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