Electric grid upgrade issues.

[Rmay635703]

As we all know that will never happen because so many have a stick lodged in their posteriors about EVs and this site having 20 members trash talking EVs per every 1 owner tells the story.

I think you're all safe there. Crisis averted.

And data centers are expected to use up to 100x more power than EVs once fully deployed.

Just crypto alone uses more power than EVs .

 

[slo town]

There highly biased and not a reliable source. So you never know what amount of any story your getting.

Just like the New York Times. They're biased rags intended to stoke social division.

Scott

 

[OVERKILL]

Just like the New York Times. They're biased rags intended to stoke social division.

Scott

As I said earlier in the thread, this is true for all media at this point. It's even worse in Canada with the media now being "state funded" so the party that implemented that can "do no wrong", further cementing existing bias and making it stronger.

 

[danstraylee]

Epoch times? Yikes!! Considering the insider money laundering that was going on a few years back I would not believe much of anything from that outlet. I do agree with the transformer wait times though. Current underground upgrades and solid state transformers are seemingly going at slower rate than the last decade.

 

[Torrid]

And data centers are expected to use up to 100x more power than EVs once fully deployed.

Just crypto alone uses more power than EVs .

Oh the data centers. Our city officials sold us out. Three data centers being built here in the future, one already in construction. We knew nothing of it until it was in construction. Approved in the dark of night with no say by the constituents. You may know the comedian Charlie Berens, famous for his exaggerated Wisconsin accent. He came here to speak out about the data centers and the elected officials going against the wishes of our community. Our affordable power will be gone.

The city council used to frequent our favorite restaurant in town after city council meetings. No one has seen a single official in public outside of official business since the truth was found out. At least the blip on the radar EVs are something everyone can complain about here!

(edit - MOD)
For those that are actually bothered about it, here's some advice. It's a car. Get over it. It has a battery under it to store power from many materials around the globe to produce it and the power comes from multiple power sources including wind, solar, natural gas, and coal. Find something else to do with your time if it aggravates you so much. Grind your axe and swing at me about me being a problem in an EV and I'm done holding back. I'm not a punching bag. I'm not responsible for your anger and problems for something you don't like. I don't have any nice left in me and I'm not going to pretend to be ok with the abuse because you can't hold your feels in. You are all big boys, act like it.

 

[Rmay635703]

Just like the New York Times. They're biased rags intended to stoke social division.

Scott

Until recently they were biased to make money (“liberal “ papers with a board full of conservative leadership, with overwhelming conservative investment majorities).
Worth noting Neoliberal is most conservative leadership for 4 decades, both parties have strong neoliberal motivations.
Most confusing are populists who push strong neoliberal nonsense .

but in recent years you may have a point, everybody is on the same bandwagon or else.

NYT financial columns have almost always been pro business and neoliberal

Worth noting Neoliberal should not = liberal

Consistently inconsistent for $$$ and lols.

 

[OVERKILL]

That may be true in Canada but there is a whole hoard of ongoing/worsening issues if we want to claim “domestic “ production is just wonderful without issue and it’s just a “demand” issue.

I'm not saying it's the only issue, just that it's a significant issue with this particular item. The West need to re-industrialize, the outsourcing bonanza has, not surprisingly, made us incredibly vulnerable to supply disruptions and allows us to be held hostage by non-friendlies like China. This is an existential issue.

If we want a good recent example of the state of manufacturing in the West, looking at what just transpired with FRAM and Champion Labs is instructive.

 

[JeffKeryk]

I am encouraged by the TSMC fabs in Phoenix, one of the largest foreign direct investments in US history.
Tesla Fremont is the #1 auto plant, by numbers, in the US. Just a short few years ago is was defunct.
California is the nation's leader in manufacturing, supported by our population and education opportunities.

 

[slo town]

As I said earlier in the thread, this is true for all media at this point. It's even worse in Canada with the media now being "state funded" so the party that implemented that can "do no wrong", further cementing existing bias and making it stronger.

I don't pay much attention to mainstream news anymore. In some ways you have more newsworthy things here on BITOG than you do in the mainstream press. That said, the Canadian media is "state funded"?! Wow, just wow.

Scott

 

[SC Maintenance]

You've not addressed my point about production volume and demand.

I think I have - myself and others have pointed out this is not a new problem. In fact it several other posters have said the same thing - I can go grab those quotes if you like. Large transformers have been a supply chain issue since long before most of the world understood what supply chain issue meant. Its been more than 5 years - really much longer. Its not some sudden demand shift which is predicted. In fact it was the same material shortage that slowed Tesla's EV charger network construction - same materials same problems. Took 10 years not the predicted 5. Same problem for large industrial motors.

I cannot relate to your cynicism here. I don't see this being a carefully crafted ego stroke, painstakingly curating and assembling specific elements to deflect from the "real issue", taking the reader on a "smoke-up-the-rear" fantasy adventure like some epic soap. It's a pretty brief overview of the (potential) transformer shortage situation. It's biggest offence being perhaps a bit too much brevity. I've read much worse.

You need to research the source - again as many others here have pointed out. I have done nothing but agree with a transformer shortage. Clearly you don't understand the push back. Which is fine - if that part is not important to you

with refining being the primary obstacle,

Correct - like I said - processing of the materials - both copper and ferromagnetic. We have very limited processing capability. Also the wire needed for these coils is not the same grade as wiring for whatever. Its much higher quality - very thin and very pure. There used to be a big producer of it up your way - Alcatel. I don't know what happened to it - it was shut down 25 years ago. I assume it went offshore.

 

[OVERKILL]

I don't pay much attention to mainstream news anymore. In some ways you have more newsworthy things here on BITOG than you do in the mainstream press. That said, the Canadian media is "state funded"?! Wow, just wow.

Scott

Yep! The Liberals cut off advertising on social media (so you can't share news articles on facebook for example) which significantly impacted the bottom line of media companies, so their solution was to then fund those companies from the government coffers, so they've effectively made them government-dependent. The opposition of course opposes this scheme, which means that these companies are highly motivated to keep the liberals in power so the funding isn't cut-off.

 

[OVERKILL]

I think I have - myself and others have pointed out this is not a new problem. In fact it several other posters have said the same thing - I can go grab those quotes if you like. Large transformers have been a supply chain issue since long before most of the world understood what supply chain issue meant. Its been more than 5 years - really much longer. Its not some sudden demand shift which is predicted. In fact it was the same material shortage that slowed Tesla's EV charger network construction - same materials same problems. Took 10 years not the predicted 5. Same problem for large industrial motors.

But there is a predicted aspect. The data centre expansion, and demand increase, both of which are predictions at this point, are driving phantom demand. We saw the same thing happen with RAM. I'm not saying there aren't issues in the actual supply chain, but that this uptick in demand, much of which is projected at this point, is what is driving the current freak-out about availability, not the problems we've been dealing with since around COVID or so.

You need to research the source - again as many others here have pointed out. I have done nothing but agree with a transformer shortage. Clearly you don't understand the push back. Which is fine - if that part is not important to you

One or two of you seem to believe that because of the history of the backing of this publication, anything they publish is best used to line the cat box. As I believe I've made clear, I look at everything published by mainstream sources with a healthy dose of skepticism, which is necessary given the level of CCP infiltration in the Canadian government and the fact that this government is now funding the media. It's not a lack of understanding on my part, but rather one of not sharing the same position. I suspect you and I are coming at this from different vantage points.

Correct - like I said - processing of the materials - both copper and ferromagnetic. We have very limited processing capability. Also the wire needed for these coils is not the same grade as wiring for whatever. Its much higher quality - very thin and very pure. There used to be a big producer of it up your way - Alcatel. I don't know what happened to it - it was shut down 25 years ago. I assume it went offshore.

Glencore refines copper in Quebec. I wouldn't say we have "very limited" processing, more just "limited". The issue is that we don't have sufficient processing capacity to handle current, and recent, demand. We have lots of copper as the articles I've previously shared illustrates, but we've been outsourcing a not insignificant chunk of the processing, and the companies doing it domestically have been reluctant to bring new capacity, or shuttered capacity back online, in the event that this surge is temporary, which hasn't helped.

Alcatel was broken up. The mobile and Enterprise arms got sold to the Chinese, and Alcatel-Lucent was purchased by Nokia. I still deal with this stuff on my fibre equipment, Rogers originally was shipping Alcatel-Lucent and then switched to Nokia (same stuff). I believe it's the same with Bell.

 

[SC Maintenance]

But there is a predicted aspect. The data centre expansion, and demand increase, both of which are predictions at this point, are driving phantom demand. We saw the same thing happen with RAM.

But it’s been a problem for more than 5 years. Since long before chat was even released. If there is some additional phantom demand that will only make it worse. I am not quoting articles, boots on the ground. Industrial projects waiting around for transformers.

Domestic processors have no interest in restarting because they don’t want to compete with China or deal with the regulatory problems. It would take years to restart if they started now so they figure why bother. If we want them restarted they will need some sort of guarantees, which never works out for the taxpayer either - fat dumb and happy. Catch 22.

 

[OVERKILL]

But it’s been a problem for more than 5 years. Since long before chat was even released. If there is some additional phantom demand that will only make it worse. I am not quoting articles, boots on the ground. Industrial projects waiting around for transformers.

Phantom demand in the form of projections that have brought this issue, that is a real issue, and has been around a while (same with the GT shortage) to the fore, hence articles like these appearing. Basically, the issue is expected to get much worse than the delays we've seen for the last ~decade, and noise is being made, but this is all predicated on projections for a massive increase in demand, the same scale of increase that we are seeing projected for generation.

Domestic processors have no interest in restarting because they don’t want to compete with China or deal with the regulatory problems. It would take years to restart if they started now so they figure why bother. If we want them restarted they will need some sort of guarantees, which never works out for the taxpayer either - fat dumb and happy. Catch 22.

Well yes, that's why they are reluctant to restart. They don't know if these projections, that would drive a bigger deficit and actually make a case for restarting those assets, are really going to materialize or not. This could all be a bubble, like we saw with the RAM stuff recently. It makes great fodder for politicians, Ontario is announcing nuclear projects like they are Tim Hortons franchises, but we don't have the demand to justify any of them yet, and they are all hinged on these same projections that assume data centres, AI, massive mining and processing...etc. Northern Ontario contains huge amounts of valuable minerals that aren't being mined, this government wants to change that, they've, to their credit, actually started building roads and running power lines up there. But that doesn't justify the construction of a 10,000MW nuclear plant (that's not a typo).

 

[4wd]

Before the pandemic China had a near total monopoly on specific large scale transformers. Then during the pandemic long leadtime transformers were never delivered and the places who took the orders went dark like nobody was on the other end. (That’s 6 years ago zndcrelates to China moving back to centralized control)

Far as I know many replacements have no source available for replacement and everybody quit making specific but critical types.

On this topic IT IS CRIMINAL we are wasting copper on grid and EV charge stations.

Copper clad aluminum as primary motivators were perfected 30 years ago and usuable in place of copper for 90% of applications.
we have been flirting with shortages of many common items becoming so accute that we almost have found ourselves in military production act territory.

We should start banning solid copper wire use on new designs across the board outside contacts and other places copper has no substitute .

It is extremely foolish that we didn’t preemptively understand there is and won’t be any supply of many items for 5-10 years, so we have to start using less desirable materials in many applications like EV charge cables and power lines.

This would make stealing these nearly valueless items pointless and we have tough guard materials that make it extremely difficult and dangerous to steal cord.

Very shortsighted we continue on normally a decade after we knew there was no solution to these supply issues

You mean like after two years I finally saw an EV at the four tax payer funded chargers … even seeing an EV in my town is almost a guarantee one of the kids came home for the WE …
(That lives 50 miles away) …

 

[Rmay635703]

You mean like after two years I finally saw an EV at the four tax payer funded chargers … even seeing an EV in my town is almost a guarantee one of the kids came home for the WE …
(That lives 50 miles away) …

EVs are either everywhere or you never see them, little in between

Even in the sticks I’m seeing a lot of teslas driving around everyday mostly with Illinois plates .

The goal of EV ownership is to avoid paid charging like the plague so if EVs aren’t using destination/rapid charging your system is working as designed,

That’s why I always tried to promote cheap 110vac or even low amp 220 outlets nearly everywhere because L3 from a financial sense doesn’t make sense.
While L1 might only cost 10 cents an hour.
EVs don’t need charging like gassers need stations, you rarely fill an EV at a station.

It’s unfortunate that we didn’t work on perfecting bring your own cable destination charging or aluminum DCDC to eliminate any theft value, ideally covering the cables with the tough guard that destroys blades and causes cutting wheels to explode.

Then once a charger is in place it costs almost nothing for potentially decades and anyone that uses it pays road taxes and profit.

 

[4wd]

They continue to build large data centers in No. Va. even though there is no electricity to be had. I guess they are operating them with large diesel generators. I have read complaints from nearby neighborhoods about the noise. Also They are trying to build new power lines on new rights of way across WV. Communities are fighting them but I doubt they will win. Big money gets what it wants.

I’m wondering if the race to “win” at AI won’t look like the dog that finally caught the car bcs they stopped …

 

[Rmay635703]

I’m wondering if the race to “win” at AI won’t look like the dog that finally caught the car bcs they stopped …

Most all current events involving our country resemble the dog catching the car.

 

[4wd]

But it’s been a problem for more than 5 years. Since long before chat was even released. If there is some additional phantom demand that will only make it worse. I am not quoting articles, boots on the ground. Industrial projects waiting around for transformers.

Domestic processors have no interest in restarting because they don’t want to compete with China or deal with the regulatory problems. It would take years to restart if they started now so they figure why bother. If we want them restarted they will need some sort of guarantees, which never works out for the taxpayer either - fat dumb and happy. Catch 22.

What ever happened with the Siemens expansion in NC?

 

[Speedy3861]

IMHO the only long term reliable source of sustainable power is nuclear