OVERKILL
$100 Site Donor 2021
And Ontario is taking it on the chin for a US company 
The Darlington SMR project now has a cost estimate of $20.8 billion Canadian. This is roughly the same price as rumours have indicated that it's going to cost to refurbish Pickering B, for about 1/2 the output (even less if Pickering receives major uprates, which are quite feasible).
The first unit is slated to cost $7.7 billion, which is about 7x higher than the original cost estimated for the BWRX-300 back when it was still in the early stages of being a "paper" reactor. This figure includes $1.6 billion of "shared" costs for infrastructure necessary for the additional units, so actual unit cost is $6.1 billion. Subsequent units are expected to be cheaper:
The article compares the cost of power from these units, pegged at $0.149/kWh, with a wind/solar/battery combo, which could deliver power at somewhere between $0.135 and $0.184/kWh, arguing that the SMR project is the safer bet. However, that's not the comparison that should be made.
Ontario is wrapping up the refurbishment of the 4-unit Darlington station, in the middle of refurbishing the 8-unit Bruce station and is about to start refurbishing the 4 units at Pickering B. All of these stations are CANDU's, use the same pressure tubes, use the same tooling, and the process requires the same expertise. Darlington B was originally supposed to be 4x CANDU 9 units, the same as Darlington A. The "Monark" is the current (but not yet licensed) evolution of that design, while the EC6, based on the Qinshan units, which completed construction in 2003/2004, is essentially turn-key for a (now) 725MWe unit. Given the existing refurb supply chain and expertise, it would be reasonable to expect that new CANDU units would be considerably cheaper per MW to procure (Qinshan cost $2.84 billion USD for 2x units) and produce considerably more electricity for the same 4 unit site license.
However, OPG has already put in some significant civil work on the BWRX project:
Betting hard on them being able to be the export partner for this design, and the cost declines shown above resulting in a CAPEX for future builds that's attractive to other utilities operating grids that cannot handle conventional sized units.
It seems the provincial government is in agreement with us taking this risk, but we won't know whether it was worth it or not until the 2030's, when the success of this project is known, and potential NOAK procurements from other utilities begin to manifest, if they are going to.
First unit is expected to be grid connected in 2029, but of course how well it performs will take a year or two to determine.
The Darlington SMR project now has a cost estimate of $20.8 billion Canadian. This is roughly the same price as rumours have indicated that it's going to cost to refurbish Pickering B, for about 1/2 the output (even less if Pickering receives major uprates, which are quite feasible).
The first unit is slated to cost $7.7 billion, which is about 7x higher than the original cost estimated for the BWRX-300 back when it was still in the early stages of being a "paper" reactor. This figure includes $1.6 billion of "shared" costs for infrastructure necessary for the additional units, so actual unit cost is $6.1 billion. Subsequent units are expected to be cheaper:
The article compares the cost of power from these units, pegged at $0.149/kWh, with a wind/solar/battery combo, which could deliver power at somewhere between $0.135 and $0.184/kWh, arguing that the SMR project is the safer bet. However, that's not the comparison that should be made.
Ontario is wrapping up the refurbishment of the 4-unit Darlington station, in the middle of refurbishing the 8-unit Bruce station and is about to start refurbishing the 4 units at Pickering B. All of these stations are CANDU's, use the same pressure tubes, use the same tooling, and the process requires the same expertise. Darlington B was originally supposed to be 4x CANDU 9 units, the same as Darlington A. The "Monark" is the current (but not yet licensed) evolution of that design, while the EC6, based on the Qinshan units, which completed construction in 2003/2004, is essentially turn-key for a (now) 725MWe unit. Given the existing refurb supply chain and expertise, it would be reasonable to expect that new CANDU units would be considerably cheaper per MW to procure (Qinshan cost $2.84 billion USD for 2x units) and produce considerably more electricity for the same 4 unit site license.
However, OPG has already put in some significant civil work on the BWRX project:
Betting hard on them being able to be the export partner for this design, and the cost declines shown above resulting in a CAPEX for future builds that's attractive to other utilities operating grids that cannot handle conventional sized units.
It seems the provincial government is in agreement with us taking this risk, but we won't know whether it was worth it or not until the 2030's, when the success of this project is known, and potential NOAK procurements from other utilities begin to manifest, if they are going to.
First unit is expected to be grid connected in 2029, but of course how well it performs will take a year or two to determine.
