Hi all,
Most of you know I'm an owner of a large lubricants distributor. With @wwillson, I decided to make this post. We've recently published an April update on our website of the current state of the lubricants industry in the US. It can be found here: https://lydenoil.com/en-us/april-market-briefing
This information was our take aways from the recent ICIS briefing on the lubricant's market place. ICIS, is an independent, commodities data expert company. They gather pricing data and analysis over several commodities and is one of the key standards in setting market place pricing for commodities, such as base oils. You can find more about ICIS here: https://www.icis.com/explore/
Some key take aways:
On the conservative side, 35-40% of premium group 3 base oils that are imported into the United States, are offline or stranded. On the high side, with refinery cut backs in Korea, Europe and Japan, this number could be substantially higher, but the analytics are not in yet.
Three major base oil facilities, in Qatar, UAE, and Bahrain are extensively damaged.
Base oils are no longer tracking along with crude oil pricing, as the physical supply chain of base oils remain severely constrained, where as the crude markets have other production that are capable of filling the gap.
The EIA has stated this is the worse global oil crisis since 1973.
What is a known so far:
Base oil index prices have climbed substantially, nearly double the price they were in February. Base oil prices are expected to continue to climb through May. Shortages of base oils have started to arise with blenders that primarily bought on the spot market, instead of through contracted gallon commitments.
Current wholesale price increases can be found published here: https://jobbersworld.com/2026/04/23/updated-price-increase-table-april-23-2026/
The percentage increases are posted, as distributors may have different prices for different products, or special prices on certain products. But generally, the align with the dollars and cents increases that are posted as well.
What the future will hold:
As existing supplies dry up, prices will continue to climb. Shortages will also arise as spot buying based blenders are left out of the market place. As well, blenders who primarily sourced their product from the facilities that are offline & damaged, will be left seeking new suppliers.
When will we see relief? It is at least a year away, even if the blockade lifted tomorrow. Possibly longer.
Hope this helps bring some clarity.
Most of you know I'm an owner of a large lubricants distributor. With @wwillson, I decided to make this post. We've recently published an April update on our website of the current state of the lubricants industry in the US. It can be found here: https://lydenoil.com/en-us/april-market-briefing
This information was our take aways from the recent ICIS briefing on the lubricant's market place. ICIS, is an independent, commodities data expert company. They gather pricing data and analysis over several commodities and is one of the key standards in setting market place pricing for commodities, such as base oils. You can find more about ICIS here: https://www.icis.com/explore/
Some key take aways:
On the conservative side, 35-40% of premium group 3 base oils that are imported into the United States, are offline or stranded. On the high side, with refinery cut backs in Korea, Europe and Japan, this number could be substantially higher, but the analytics are not in yet.
Three major base oil facilities, in Qatar, UAE, and Bahrain are extensively damaged.
Base oils are no longer tracking along with crude oil pricing, as the physical supply chain of base oils remain severely constrained, where as the crude markets have other production that are capable of filling the gap.
The EIA has stated this is the worse global oil crisis since 1973.
What is a known so far:
Base oil index prices have climbed substantially, nearly double the price they were in February. Base oil prices are expected to continue to climb through May. Shortages of base oils have started to arise with blenders that primarily bought on the spot market, instead of through contracted gallon commitments.
Current wholesale price increases can be found published here: https://jobbersworld.com/2026/04/23/updated-price-increase-table-april-23-2026/
The percentage increases are posted, as distributors may have different prices for different products, or special prices on certain products. But generally, the align with the dollars and cents increases that are posted as well.
What the future will hold:
As existing supplies dry up, prices will continue to climb. Shortages will also arise as spot buying based blenders are left out of the market place. As well, blenders who primarily sourced their product from the facilities that are offline & damaged, will be left seeking new suppliers.
When will we see relief? It is at least a year away, even if the blockade lifted tomorrow. Possibly longer.
Hope this helps bring some clarity.
