The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that US crude oil production will average 11.9 million barrels per day this year and 12.8 million barrels per day in 2023, which would surpass the record average production of 12.3 million barrels per day set in 2019. Despite the increases...
Despite the increases in production, EIA expects the Brent crude oil price to remain above $100 per barrel this year, according to the agency’s May 2022 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO).
Other key findings from the May 2022 STEO forecast include:
- The Henry Hub natural gas price will average $8.59 per million British thermal units in the second half of 2022, which is an 88% increase from the second half of 2021. This forecast is a significant revision from previous forecasts, largely because EIA updated its power generation modeling to better account for evolving constraints in the coal market.
- US coal production will total 598 million short tons in 2022, which is a 3% increase from 2021. Last month’s STEO forecast a 7% increase in domestic coal production, and based in part on this revision, EIA expects higher natural gas prices later this year.