Record USA Crude Production Forecast for 2023

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Despite the increases in production, EIA expects the Brent crude oil price to remain above $100 per barrel this year, according to the agency’s May 2022 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO).

Other key findings from the May 2022 STEO forecast include:
  • The Henry Hub natural gas price will average $8.59 per million British thermal units in the second half of 2022, which is an 88% increase from the second half of 2021. This forecast is a significant revision from previous forecasts, largely because EIA updated its power generation modeling to better account for evolving constraints in the coal market.

  • US coal production will total 598 million short tons in 2022, which is a 3% increase from 2021. Last month’s STEO forecast a 7% increase in domestic coal production, and based in part on this revision, EIA expects higher natural gas prices later this year.
 
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