April lubricants industry market update.

Stopped by Walmart early this morning in search of 0w16... Not a drop in the 5 qt jugs. I shoulda checked the 1 qt containers but I never buy singles...

0w20 will hafta do in my friend's fancy-pants RAV4 hybrid!
 
Foxtrot08 said:
Hi all,

Most of you know I'm an owner of a large lubricants distributor. With @wwillson, I decided to make this post. We've recently published an April update on our website of the current state of the lubricants industry in the US. It can be found here: https://lydenoil.com/en-us/april-market-briefing

This information was our take aways from the recent ICIS briefing on the lubricant's market place. ICIS, is an independent, commodities data expert company. They gather pricing data and analysis over several commodities and is one of the key standards in setting market place pricing for commodities, such as base oils. You can find more about ICIS here: https://www.icis.com/explore/

Some key take aways:

On the conservative side, 35-40% of premium group 3 base oils that are imported into the United States, are offline or stranded. On the high side, with refinery cut backs in Korea, Europe and Japan, this number could be substantially higher, but the analytics are not in yet.

Three major base oil facilities, in Qatar, UAE, and Bahrain are extensively damaged.

Base oils are no longer tracking along with crude oil pricing, as the physical supply chain of base oils remain severely constrained, where as the crude markets have other production that are capable of filling the gap.

The EIA has stated this is the worse global oil crisis since 1973.

What is a known so far:

Base oil index prices have climbed substantially, nearly double the price they were in February. Base oil prices are expected to continue to climb through May. Shortages of base oils have started to arise with blenders that primarily bought on the spot market, instead of through contracted gallon commitments.

Current wholesale price increases can be found published here: https://jobbersworld.com/2026/04/23/updated-price-increase-table-april-23-2026/

The percentage increases are posted, as distributors may have different prices for different products, or special prices on certain products. But generally, the align with the dollars and cents increases that are posted as well.

What the future will hold:

As existing supplies dry up, prices will continue to climb. Shortages will also arise as spot buying based blenders are left out of the market place. As well, blenders who primarily sourced their product from the facilities that are offline & damaged, will be left seeking new suppliers.

When will we see relief? It is at least a year away, even if the blockade lifted tomorrow. Possibly longer.

Hope this helps bring some clarit
Click to expand...

Foxtrot08 said:
Hi all,

Most of you know I'm an owner of a large lubricants distributor. With @wwillson, I decided to make this post. We've recently published an April update on our website of the current state of the lubricants industry in the US. It can be found here: https://lydenoil.com/en-us/april-market-briefing

This information was our take aways from the recent ICIS briefing on the lubricant's market place. ICIS, is an independent, commodities data expert company. They gather pricing data and analysis over several commodities and is one of the key standards in setting market place pricing for commodities, such as base oils. You can find more about ICIS here: https://www.icis.com/explore/

Some key take aways:

On the conservative side, 35-40% of premium group 3 base oils that are imported into the United States, are offline or stranded. On the high side, with refinery cut backs in Korea, Europe and Japan, this number could be substantially higher, but the analytics are not in yet.

Three major base oil facilities, in Qatar, UAE, and Bahrain are extensively damaged.

Base oils are no longer tracking along with crude oil pricing, as the physical supply chain of base oils remain severely constrained, where as the crude markets have other production that are capable of filling the gap.

The EIA has stated this is the worse global oil crisis since 1973.

What is a known so far:

Base oil index prices have climbed substantially, nearly double the price they were in February. Base oil prices are expected to continue to climb through May. Shortages of base oils have started to arise with blenders that primarily bought on the spot market, instead of through contracted gallon commitments.

Current wholesale price increases can be found published here: https://jobbersworld.com/2026/04/23/updated-price-increase-table-april-23-2026/

The percentage increases are posted, as distributors may have different prices for different products, or special prices on certain products. But generally, the align with the dollars and cents increases that are posted as well.

What the future will hold:

As existing supplies dry up, prices will continue to climb. Shortages will also arise as spot buying based blenders are left out of the market place. As well, blenders who primarily sourced their product from the facilities that are offline & damaged, will be left seeking new suppliers.

When will we see relief? It is at least a year away, even if the blockade lifted tomorrow. Possibly longer.

Hope this helps bring some clarity.
Click to expand...
Good Information. So we might see a lot of off specs Products in the Market soon as we saw after Covid and ILMA then cancel many manufacturer licenses!!
 
I've ordered some extra ATF & motor oil just in case. Appreciate the heads up. I'm going to use it all anyways in the next few years, but this will guarantee I don't have to pay double of current prices.

OM617YOTA said:
@Foxtrot08 Thanks for basically doxxing yourself, and doubtless bringing on all kinds of headaches that you really didn't need, just to enlighten all of us out here in the general population. We definitely appreciate it.
Click to expand...
 
BobsArmory said:
I wonder if this will force manufacturers to expand the list of acceptable oil weights that you can use in your car & truck during times of shortages and low supply.
Click to expand...
Here was GM's response to ILMA regarding relief with the Dexos specification:
https://ilma.org/gm-responds-to-ilmas-dexos-licensing-relief-request/

If this is a hint of things to come I don't think automakers will bend the knee to do us any favors. I have trouble seeing them stick their necks out only for more warranty work. There are lot of engines are turbocharged, DI, need LSPI rated oil etc. We will be on our own.

What I can see is dealerships, oil change shops, etc. potentially rationing oil. Maybe they'll require peoples oil life monitors to be triggered, or require the mileage to be at the manufacturers recommended interval to change the oil. Maybe they'll give you whatever weight oil they have but require you to sign a waiver if its not spec for your car. Maybe they'll turn you away because they simply don't have oil (it's currently happening due to oil filter shortages).

Railroad, power generation, waste-water treatment, farming, airline, trucking, mining, construction, manufacturing industries, etc. all require lubricants of various types, from the earth mover to the OTR trucks to the emergency diesel generators in hospitals. I foresee prioritization of lubricants for certain industries if it comes to it but I could be wrong - I'm below a layman in the complexities of the lubricant business. But I'm low enough to the ground to know that our lives depend on oil and lubricants and without those two things you are in a world of trouble in our modern way of life.
 
Last edited:
OM617YOTA said:
@Foxtrot08 Thanks for basically doxxing yourself, and doubtless bringing on all kinds of headaches that you really didn't need, just to enlighten all of us out here in the general population. We definitely appreciate it.
Click to expand...

At the end of the day, it wasn’t very hard for people to guess who I am. Ohio, oil distributor, family owned, 107 years old… like you could guess. This just stops someone from emailing the wrong one, lol.
 
GMFan said:
What I can see is dealerships, oil change shops, etc. potentially rationing oil. Maybe they'll require peoples oil life monitors to be triggered, or require the mileage to be at the manufacturers recommended interval to change the oil. Maybe they'll give you whatever weight oil they have but require you to sign a waiver if its not spec for your car. Maybe they'll turn you away because they simply don't have oil (it's currently happening due to oil filter shortages).
Click to expand...
I bet they'll still change your oil, somehow.

If there's no organized, government-led rationing, the dealers will jump over each other to serve customers left stranded by the aftermarket.

Maybe they'll stop overfilling cars. 😁 If oil goes to $10/qt they'll have a second set of eyes check the dipstick/ dispenser meter to ensure noone's getting "too much."

As far as Walmart, you might see "alternate flavors" of your favorite oils take a break while the middle-of-the-road leaders take up shelf space. You may also see "also rans" like Pennzoil Gold or Mobil Super get pushed, with fewer certifications, if a particular additive for a particular cert is in short supply. We saw this during C*vid when Coke was on shelves but Vanilla Coke, Coke with Lime etc were hard to come by.
 
tcp71 said:
trying to understand what possible effects the UAE leaving OPEC may have.
Click to expand...
Nothing really. UAE will pump more crude around 2mbp afer exiting and running full pump. There is already shoratge of 500mb due to conflict. So i dont see any effects for next 6 months and also they need more Cash for reconstruction.
 
tcp71 said:
trying to understand what possible effects the UAE leaving OPEC may have.
Click to expand...
"Mr. Global" (whether you like him or not, he does say some stuff) posits that the UAE has chaffed at OPEC's production limits for many years. They're leaving to go it alone because they think the price of oil is going to be "higher for longer" and they want to cash in on their excess capacity while prices are high and likely to remain so.

He notes that they have been habitual "overproducers" in OPEC for many years, and offer dissent mightily when the Saudis want to limit production.

**That's just one guys take.
 
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