I got a letter from one of our suppliers at work, 30% price increase on oil, coolant, grease, DEF, etc. Starting May 1.
April lubricants industry market update.
- Thread starter Foxtrot08
- Start date
and so it begins
I've read a theory that parts of the world are quickly electrifying/ getting off oil, so UAE wants to cash out of what's under their sand while the getting's good.
CleanSump
Site Donor 2026
Saudi Arabia too. They're making moves to diversify.
The UAE has spent tens of billions of dollars developing both crude production and finished product production. (Adnoc / ad base, G3s for example of this.)
They have been snubbed for production raises for over a decade now. First the Saudi-Russian oil war, then COVID happened. This latest round of negotiations over quotas did not go over well either.
But beyond that goes into politics. So, let’s keep that out of this thread for the moment, please. As it’s more speculation.
I would like to keep it fact driven for the moment. And particularly focused on the U.S. lubricants market.
Round 3 to 4 of price increase are due to hit in early May.
We have received the first letter yesterday. And a verbal warning from several other suppliers about early May price increases.
At this rate, it appears we will have price increases every 2-3 weeks.
We have received the first letter yesterday. And a verbal warning from several other suppliers about early May price increases.
At this rate, it appears we will have price increases every 2-3 weeks.
Global oil use climbs every year. I'm sure there's some sense of trying to diversify like Saudi Arabia has done with their sovereign fund, but oil demand isn't going anywhere any time soon.
I know there are resources out there that track crude/nat gas inventories and even bulk gasoline and diesel storage inventories; is there anything similar for base stock inventories or blended/finished product inventories?
I'm guessing no.
Found this more detailed summary
https://jobbersworld.com/2026/04/21/lubricant-price-increases-accelerate-as-new-round-hits-market/
Welp...stocked up a bit. Can't hurt, I suppose...
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Me as well, I have 24 qts of HPL PCMO arriving tomorrow. Along with the 12 qts I already had ready for this months oil change, that means I have 4+ oil changes ready so should be set until April 2028.
~56 Quarts of Valvoline Restore and Protect 5w30 on hand. Should be good for at least 1-2 years
Thank you for posting that.
I was going to also add this, as it explains what is at risk probably a lot better than I could.
https://jobbersworld.com/2026/04/29...framework-for-managing-lubricant-supply-risk/
4wd
$50 site donor 2026
About two changes per vehicle now - going to hold there …
@Foxtrot08 , if I'm understanding the article that you linked to, it seems to suggest that the real shortage is really only with Group III, and not with Group II or II+.
Do you agree? In which case, the solution for older cars seems to be merely to return (for current users of synthetic oils) to a conventional (5w20 or 5w30) that satisfies the OEM lubrication standards in the manual.
Do you agree? In which case, the solution for older cars seems to be merely to return (for current users of synthetic oils) to a conventional (5w20 or 5w30) that satisfies the OEM lubrication standards in the manual.
We (North America) produce a significant amount of group II / II+ domestically - in both U.S. and Canada. To the point where with the rise of group 3 production, we were over producing group 2s and there was a glut of product.
The problem with saying “we will be fine” with simply reverting back to group 2’s, is the fact they’re now being fed into diesel fuel / jet fuel. Or more specifically, the feed stocks that produce them, VGO’s are being fed into other products.
I also, don’t believe there is enough to make up for the lack of group 3 products. A lot of manufacturers now have leaned on group 3s.
Whether we “can” formulate non Group 3 products vs the practicality of doing so vs the OEMs accepting these new products, are all very different things. Tom is simply pointing out that yes, you can make a non group 3 5w30 for example. You can still make group 2 15w40s. You don’t need to use a synthetic hydraulic oil. That sort of thing.
The practical problem though… is there enough VII to replace group 3 usage in PCMO / HDEO? Is there enough cold flow improver? Is there simply enough 70 through 150 neutral group 2 product out there?
How will the consumers react? How will all the OEMs react? Just because you can make a straight group 2 5w20 instead of a 0w20 doesn’t mean insert OEM here is going to approve it for warranty because it “kinda” meets specs. Which is going to make the producers hesitant to do things like that.
But I more so linked the article because this is going to directly impact your G3 based products significantly more than any straight cut products. I’ve been asked by my customers what to really be concerned about.
Full synthetic motors oils? Yeah. I’m pretty concerned.
ISO 460 EP industrial gear oils? Eh…. Not so much.
Huge reformulation and cost driver still
Patman
Staff member
I thought I heard that the supply of PAO (and esters) was also going to be an issue in the near future too?
