Electric grid upgrade issues.

[SC Maintenance]

They present both sides of a story. You are not used to getting that so it's foreign to you.

LOL. You assume anyone that doesn't agree with your biased source is uninformed. But as @OVERKILL pointed out, all "media" is biased - there playing to there base.

Your article dances all around grids and EV's and Datacenters but omits purposely two truths. 1) we have outsourced the processing of the materials we need for transformers - like magnets and copper, to our enemies, and 2) Electricity usage has only grown a tiny amount in the last 20 years. More efficient use and shrinking our industrial base has actually kept use fairly flat for the last 20 years. See chart below.

So the simple fact is the epoch times doesn't point these out because it would acknowledge that the enemies of the owners of the Epoch times, mainly the CCP, control our ability to expand our grid. There is a simple solution - we need to make our own stuff. But actually doing something other than giving speeches and writing commentary is not these peoples expertise.

 

[4wd]

Forecasted ramp looks more similar to pre Y2K …

 

[loneryder]

LOL. You assume anyone that doesn't agree with your biased source is uninformed. But as @OVERKILL pointed out, all "media" is biased - there playing to there base.

Your article dances all around grids and EV's and Datacenters but omits purposely two truths. 1) we have outsourced the processing of the materials we need for transformers - like magnets and copper, to our enemies, and 2) Electricity usage has only grown a tiny amount in the last 20 years. More efficient use and shrinking our industrial base has actually kept use fairly flat for the last 20 years. See chart below.

So the simple fact is the epoch times doesn't point these out because it would acknowledge that the enemies of the owners of the Epoch times, mainly the CCP, control our ability to expand our grid. There is a simple solution - we need to make our own stuff. But actually doing something other than giving speeches and writing commentary is not these peoples expertise.



View attachment 337032

"Your article dances all around grids and EV's and Datacenters but omits purposely two truths. 1) we have outsourced the processing of the materials we need for transformers - like magnets and copper, to our enemies, and 2) Electricity usage has only grown a tiny amount in the last 20 years. More efficient use and shrinking our industrial base has actually kept use fairly flat for the last 20 years. See chart below.

So the simple fact is the epoch times doesn't point these out because it would acknowledge that the enemies of the owners of the Epoch times, mainly the CCP, control our ability to expand our grid. There is a simple solution - we need to make our own stuff. But actually doing something other than giving speeches and writing commentary is not these peoples expertise."

Sounds a little political to me

 

[SC Maintenance]

"Your article dances all around grids and EV's and Datacenters but omits purposely two truths. 1) we have outsourced the processing of the materials we need for transformers - like magnets and copper, to our enemies, and 2) Electricity usage has only grown a tiny amount in the last 20 years. More efficient use and shrinking our industrial base has actually kept use fairly flat for the last 20 years. See chart below.

So the simple fact is the epoch times doesn't point these out because it would acknowledge that the enemies of the owners of the Epoch times, mainly the CCP, control our ability to expand our grid. There is a simple solution - we need to make our own stuff. But actually doing something other than giving speeches and writing commentary is not these peoples expertise."

Sounds a little political to me

Yes. And you posted it when you opened this thread.

I am just posting the reason for the actual shortage.

 

[Mainia]

I mean, that's the case for any media source at this juncture. I find Epoch pretty mild on the propaganda front compared to other outlets, like say the Toronto Star.

Or the " Minneapolis Red Star Tribune".

 

[Snagglefoot]

LOL. You assume anyone that doesn't agree with your biased source is uninformed. But as @OVERKILL pointed out, all "media" is biased - there playing to there base.

Your article dances all around grids and EV's and Datacenters but omits purposely two truths. 1) we have outsourced the processing of the materials we need for transformers - like magnets and copper, to our enemies, and 2) Electricity usage has only grown a tiny amount in the last 20 years. More efficient use and shrinking our industrial base has actually kept use fairly flat for the last 20 years. See chart below.

So the simple fact is the epoch times doesn't point these out because it would acknowledge that the enemies of the owners of the Epoch times, mainly the CCP, control our ability to expand our grid. There is a simple solution - we need to make our own stuff. But actually doing something other than giving speeches and writing commentary is not these peoples expertise.



View attachment 337032

Industrial is flat because it’s all made in China, powered by coal.

 

[OVERKILL]

LOL. You assume anyone that doesn't agree with your biased source is uninformed. But as @OVERKILL pointed out, all "media" is biased - there playing to there base.

Your article dances all around grids and EV's and Datacenters but omits purposely two truths. 1) we have outsourced the processing of the materials we need for transformers - like magnets and copper, to our enemies, and 2) Electricity usage has only grown a tiny amount in the last 20 years. More efficient use and shrinking our industrial base has actually kept use fairly flat for the last 20 years. See chart below.

So the simple fact is the epoch times doesn't point these out because it would acknowledge that the enemies of the owners of the Epoch times, mainly the CCP, control our ability to expand our grid. There is a simple solution - we need to make our own stuff. But actually doing something other than giving speeches and writing commentary is not these peoples expertise.



View attachment 337032

I honestly didn't find this article biased

It talks about the transformer shortage, which has been a reality post-COVID, it doesn't really get into the politics. Yes, stagnant demand since the 1990's has resulted in lower uptake of things like transformers and turbines, as most procurement was done for replacement of existing components, not expansion. We have limited capacity in the West, as you note, to manufacture these things, because a considerable percentage has been outsourced, but that hasn't been a factor in availability for the last several decades, because of the aforementioned flat uptake rate.

Now that demand is actually starting (and is projected... that's an important thing to be aware of, a lot of this demand does not actually exist yet and may not exist if we experience a collapse of the AI bubble) to increase, there is concern about the ability to meet the material requirements of what that looks like from a generation perspective. This is not restricted to just transformers, though that was the focus of this article, but also turbines, specifically gas turbines, due to the blades, which differ from steam turbine blades used in coal and nuclear plants.

Industry is reactive, not proactive. Nobody was going to gamble on increasing manufacturing capacity when the demand to justify it wasn't there. So this game of catch-up is somewhat obvious when looked at objectively. I think the article says as much, and doesn't overly sensationalize it either.

 

[alarmguy]

Just imagine if EVs made up more than 3% of vehicles on the roads
What happens at 10%, 20%?

 

[SC Maintenance]

I honestly didn't find this article biased

It talks about the transformer shortage, which has been a reality post-COVID, it doesn't really get into the politics. Yes, stagnant demand since the 1990's has resulted in lower uptake of things like transformers and turbines, as most procurement was done for replacement of existing components, not expansion. We have limited capacity in the West, as you note, to manufacture these things, because a considerable percentage has been outsourced, but that hasn't been a factor in availability for the last several decades, because of the aforementioned flat uptake rate.

Now that demand is actually starting (and is projected... that's an important thing to be aware of, a lot of this demand does not actually exist yet and may not exist if we experience a collapse of the AI bubble) to increase, there is concern about the ability to meet the material requirements of what that looks like from a generation perspective. This is not restricted to just transformers, though that was the focus of this article, but also turbines, specifically gas turbines, due to the blades, which differ from steam turbine blades used in coal and nuclear plants.

Industry is reactive, not proactive. Nobody was going to gamble on increasing manufacturing capacity when the demand to justify it wasn't there. So this game of catch-up is somewhat obvious when looked at objectively. I think the article says as much, and doesn't overly sensationalize it either.

Propaganda by omission. Talks about the supply chain problems, the projected needs, and the long lead times. But completely omits the actual reason for 2 year lead times on transformers.

Anyone can wind copper around a ferromagnetic core. The problem is getting the precision copper wire and the core.

 

[OVERKILL]

Don’t shoot the messenger. California and Texas continue to build grid scale battery storage. The first chart in growth of battery capacity in California. The second is an update of the California duck curve. Have a look at the purple section of the duck curve. They kick in the batteries as the sun goes down. Presently they can start at 12 GW and then decline. This will only grow. It will power about 10 Deloreans from Back to the Future. Mods, I did a few screen shots to describe the situation easily.

View attachment 337021

View attachment 337022

They specifically choose March because it's a low demand month. And yes, due to the obscene level of solar Cali has installed, and the resultant impact on rates, they are now spending an equally obscene amount of money on trying to move that expensive energy around. If we look at August from last year:

If we want a rough idea on cost and assume a generously low price of $600,000/MWh, this being 4hr storage represents 67,768MWh or roughly $40.6 billion in batteries. That's more than the price of Vogtle, not to generate electricity, as these installations actually use electricity, but to move very expensive electricity that the state subsidizes, around.

You are taking electricity that CAISO is paying likely north of $0.30/kWh on average, and then adding the round-trip price of storage on top of that, which is how we end up with rates that look like this, note the price when the batteries are discharging, up to $0.62/kWh!

The situation in Texas is far better, because they didn't have NEM, so most of the installs are commercial with a much lower rate, competing with each other on the market. And of course Texas's largest source is still natural gas, which we can see by looking at the same period:

 

[OVERKILL]

Propaganda by omission. Talks about the supply chain problems, the projected needs, and the long lead times. But completely omits the actual reason for 2 year lead times on transformers.

Anyone can wind copper around a ferromagnetic core. The problem is getting the precision copper wire and the core.

The reason is simply the lack of demand. As I said, industry is reactive, not proactive, nobody was going to dump money into increasing transformer manufacturing capacity when the demand wasn't there, which it hasn't been.

I think you are doing a bit of shooting the messenger here because you don't like the source. It's really not as bad as one would infer from reading the comments in this thread and not the article itself.

I get it, there are sources I don't like to see quoted too, because they often have an agenda, but I really don't get that impression from this article. I think motivation is being assumed due to reputation and the material isn't being judged for what it is, but what is felt to be intended to be conveyed, based on that reputation.

 

[Snagglefoot]

They specifically choose March because it's a low demand month. And yes, due to the obscene level of solar Cali has installed, and the resultant impact on rates, they are now spending an equally obscene amount of money on trying to move that expensive energy around. If we look at August from last year:
View attachment 337038

If we want a rough idea on cost and assume a generously low price of $600,000/MWh, this being 4hr storage represents 67,768MWh or roughly $40.6 billion in batteries. That's more than the price of Vogtle, not to generate electricity, as these installations actually use electricity, but to move very expensive electricity that the state subsidizes, around.

You are taking electricity that CAISO is paying likely north of $0.30/kWh on average, and then adding the round-trip price of storage on top of that, which is how we end up with rates that look like this, note the price when the batteries are discharging, up to $0.62/kWh!
View attachment 337039

The situation in Texas is far better, because they didn't have NEM, so most of the installs are commercial with a much lower rate, competing with each other on the market. And of course Texas's largest source is still natural gas, which we can see by looking at the same period:
View attachment 337040

All good but we need a price check on the $600,000 per MWh. You've quoted the same number last year. Are the costs not coming down?

 

[Snagglefoot]

Because of California’s milder climate, California is not in the top 10 for average monthly power bills. Since voters determine administrations and administrations make decisions on what energy type is power is promoted, in California, solar gets support and nuclear does not. Life does not revolve around the monthly power bill in California. Flame suit on.

 

[SC Maintenance]

The reason is simply the lack of demand. As I said, industry is reactive, not proactive, nobody was going to dump money into increasing transformer manufacturing capacity when the demand wasn't there, which it hasn't been.

There is no lack in the industry on the ability to wind a transformer. There is a shortage of copper wire and magnetic material because China is keeping it for themselves under there "made in China 2025" initiative. No one here wants to do that job here because it leaves piles of industrial waste. This reality doesn't fit the owners of the epoch times narrative so they conveniently leave it out.

I think you are doing a bit of shooting the messenger here because you don't like the source.

I completely acknowledged the lack of transformers being real in post number 7, and I did blast the source on this particular article because they are 100% biased (look into who owns them) and completely ignore the real issue. To which the OP took offense, which is what the latter discussion is about - not transformers.

The key to good propaganda is using real facts you like and willfully ignoring those which you don't. The key to understanding propaganda is to understand the bias of the authors of such pieces.

Its like an episode of as the world turns.

 

[mk378]

Epoch Times is owned by Falun Gong, which is various things but definitely an opposition party to the Chinese government. Anything directly involving the CCP they are highly opposed to. Their reports on other topics are window dressing so they don't look like a one-trick pony.

 

[Rmay635703]

We've been short on transformers for a while. A modern-day Carrington Event could knock us back into the Dark Ages as there aren't enough transformers sitting idle. Every utility wants to be "six sigma" lean (or whatever) and buy replacements just-in-time.

Before the pandemic China had a near total monopoly on specific large scale transformers. Then during the pandemic long leadtime transformers were never delivered and the places who took the orders went dark like nobody was on the other end. (That’s 6 years ago zndcrelates to China moving back to centralized control)

Far as I know many replacements have no source available for replacement and everybody quit making specific but critical types.

On this topic IT IS CRIMINAL we are wasting copper on grid and EV charge stations.

Copper clad aluminum as primary motivators were perfected 30 years ago and usuable in place of copper for 90% of applications.
we have been flirting with shortages of many common items becoming so accute that we almost have found ourselves in military production act territory.

We should start banning solid copper wire use on new designs across the board outside contacts and other places copper has no substitute .

It is extremely foolish that we didn’t preemptively understand there is and won’t be any supply of many items for 5-10 years, so we have to start using less desirable materials in many applications like EV charge cables and power lines.

This would make stealing these nearly valueless items pointless and we have tough guard materials that make it extremely difficult and dangerous to steal cord.

Very shortsighted we continue on normally a decade after we knew there was no solution to these supply issues

 

[OVERKILL]

All good but we need a price check on the $600,000 per MWh. You've quoted the same number last year. Are the costs not coming down?

Yes, that was a current number last year. The capacity figure you provided was from October of 2025, so I think the $600,000/MWh is reasonable, given that none of that capacity was built at the end of last year, but rather over the last several years. There was over 15,000 MW in 2024 for example, 9,800MW in 2023. The Napanee battery in Ontario (2026) was $750,000/MWh, which is $549,000/MWh USD.

 

[OVERKILL]

There is no lack in the industry on the ability to wind a transformer. There is a shortage of copper wire and magnetic material because China is keeping it for themselves under there "made in China 2025" initiative. No one here wants to do that job here because it leaves piles of industrial waste. This reality doesn't fit the owners of the epoch times narrative so they conveniently leave it out.



I completely acknowledged the lack of transformers being real in post number 7, and I did blast the source on this particular article because they are 100% biased (look into who owns them) and completely ignore the real issue. To which the OP took offense, which is what the latter discussion is about - not transformers.

The key to good propaganda is using real facts you like and willfully ignoring those which you don't. The key to understanding propaganda is to understand the bias of the authors of such pieces.

Its like an episode of as the world turns.

You've not addressed my point about production volume and demand. I didn't say there was a lack of industry, but that demand volume has been consistent over the last few decades and so current production is geared toward satisfying those figures. Those figures now APPEAR to be changing (how much of that is hype and how much of it is real is something that could, and probably should, prompt a conversation all its own). This isn't all driven by shortage, but also by how supply naturally trails demand changes and much of this is projection.

You don't need to explain propaganda to me, I'm not a moron. But I still think you are being overly hard on the messenger here because of your personal disdain for them. This is an obstacle that is going to continue to make any conversation in this thread difficult.

We do produce copper in North America. Both the US and Canada mine it and in fact the US has a glut of mined copper, with refining being the primary obstacle, but over 50% of US mined copper is processed/used domestically. We also process/refine it in Quebec (with cheap Quebec hydro-electric power). China is not self-sufficient in the copper game. Refining and mining, like transformer production, also has the same supply/demand relationship and, given how much of demand is projected (like what drove-up RAM prices) vs actually materializes, a lag is natural as the situation is analyzed and decisions are made on whether to increase refining capacity or wait and see what develops.

I cannot relate to your cynicism here. I don't see this being a carefully crafted ego stroke, painstakingly curating and assembling specific elements to deflect from the "real issue", taking the reader on a "smoke-up-the-rear" fantasy adventure like some epic soap. It's a pretty brief overview of the (potential) transformer shortage situation. It's biggest offence being perhaps a bit too much brevity. I've read much worse.

Otherwise, you and I are on the same page regarding the dangers of outsourcing to our enemies, particularly China.

 

[Rmay635703]

You've not addressed my point about production volume and demand. I didn't say there was a lack of industry, but that demand volume has been consistent over the last few decades and so current production is geared toward satisfying those figures. Those figures now APPEAR to be changing (how much of that is hype and how much of it is real is something that could, and probably should, prompt a conversation all its own). This isn't all driven by shortage, but also by how supply naturally trails demand changes and much of this is projection.

You don't need to explain propaganda to me, I'm not a moron. But I still think you are being overly hard on the messenger here because of your personal disdain for them. This is an obstacle that is going to continue to make any conversation in this thread difficult.

We do produce copper in North America. Both the US and Canada mine it and in fact the US has a glut of mined copper, with refining being the primary obstacle, but over 50% of US mined copper is processed/used domestically. We also process/refine it in Quebec (with cheap Quebec hydro-electric power). China is not self-sufficient in the copper game. Refining and mining, like transformer production, also has the same supply/demand relationship and, given how much of demand is projected (like what drove-up RAM prices) vs actually materializes, a lag is natural as the situation is analyzed and decisions are made on whether to increase refining capacity or wait and see what develops.

I cannot relate to your cynicism here. I don't see this being a carefully crafted ego stroke, painstakingly curating and assembling specific elements to deflect from the "real issue", taking the reader on a "smoke-up-the-rear" fantasy adventure like some epic soap. It's a pretty brief overview of the (potential) transformer shortage situation. It's biggest offence being perhaps a bit too much brevity. I've read much worse.

Otherwise, you and I are on the same page regarding the dangers of outsourcing to our enemies, particularly China.

That may be true in Canada but there is a whole hoard of ongoing/worsening issues if we want to claim “domestic “ production is just wonderful without issue and it’s just a “demand” issue.

Our ability to produce is falling for a variety of reasons , a few below

GOES (specialized steel) is single source and in the process of having a market /business failure
from lack of investment, artisanal production, aging and dying workforce. Without it no transformers

Take the above and it’s the same for transformers, lack of investment, artisanal production. Dying workforce, lack of training, lack of standardization.

Half of us transformers are past their 33 year expected life.
My own neighborhood has had 55 year old transformers explode, then they get replaced, from what I’m told they are all that old unless they blew recently.
Leadtimes can be 5 years so something is gonna give as “storm/environmentsl” damage was double normal in certain months.

If the us wants to fix the industry they need to eliminate the custom production element and start the painful process of making everything standard cookie cutter by designing out the need for every transformer being a unicorn. Other nations have done this to varying extents, with some even having universal standard cookie cutter power plants.

We lack many things to continue with the status quo, with 80% of production imported there are good reasons to be pessimistic as we haven’t addressed the multitude of market failures needed to insource, let alone maintain existing production levels.

 

[Torrid]

Just imagine if EVs made up more than 3% of vehicles on the roads
What happens at 10%, 20%?

As we all know that will never happen because so many have a stick lodged in their posteriors about EVs and this site having 20 members trash talking EVs per every 1 owner tells the story.

I think you're all safe there. Crisis averted.