Corona Virus and Car Sales?

[edyvw]

Originally Posted by PimTac
Originally Posted by edyvw
Originally Posted by spasm3
Originally Posted by madRiver

Death rate is 0.1% for flu and approaching 3% for Coronavirus. Both highly contagious just flu obviously got way more people get it currently.

Concern is death rate.


Its hard to take that death rate and relate it to the US. There is a difference in healthcare and demographics. 1 death in the US, and we really don't know the real numbers of who is infected here. I would not compare the death rate of a dense populated lower healthcare country like china to here.

The overall smoking rate is probably 8% higher there( 17% USA vs 24% China) than the US ( 19% male smoking rate USA vs 47% male smokers in China) so more lung disease, heart disease, and hypertension. That would not go well with coronavirus, especially in the elderly.

We will have to wait and see what happens here. But i'm going to doubt a 2-3% rate here.

First of all, we have no clue what is COVID-19 infection rate in the US as testing kits are not available, which tells a lot about HC system in the US or failure of communication right now. In Italy things are pretty dramatic, and their HC system is ranked second, the US 37th by WHO. So, that argument is ridiculous at best. We might have actually more deaths from COVID-19, but if we do not test, then how we know? They just said that 15,00 test kits are going to be available, and we have 6,500 hospitals in this country. So, what is happening now in the markets is insecurity about what is exactly going on bcs. China is trying to control flow of information, and in the US there is clearly failure to get ahead of this.
IMO we will see slow down because of one of these two things:
1. Pandemic
OR
2. Lack of confidence in government response.
Either way, we are up for some chopy times. Things in Europe and Japan looked bad economically even before COVID-19.





What a bunch of malarkey. Test kits are available and being used. It's not dire like you make it out to be.

Did you actually read data or you are making assumption?

 

[edyvw]

Originally Posted by 4WD
One big concern remains air traffic ... USA is highest, China, UK and so on.

On 18-February I flew from Tokyo ,.. only thing new was forms stating that I had not been to China, health questions, and taking temperature in the security line.

Originally Posted by AC1DD
Originally Posted by loneryder
I would wear rubber or vinyl gloves in public before I would wear masks.



You're correct, but the best route is to use all those things and sealed eye wear goggles too.

My question is why haven't all international flights been banned from entering the US? I remember when I first heard about this virus about two months ago my first reaction was
stop all international travel immediate and close the borders as well. I was right.

You can always mitigate financial hardship for business and the economy, but once you have tens of millions of people sick and dying your "global economy" is history, unfortunately
the economy as we know it today won't ever be seen in our lifetimes ago.

Immediate market crash. And such move would cause panic.
First of all, Chinese did disservice to everyone by putting more efforts into controlling flow if information than controlling spread. When things got out of control, they stepped up efforts, but it is too late. Whether we will close borers or not (and that is not as simple here as in China) depends on information we have from other countries, including China.
Basically, for 6 weeks this was lingering and spreading.
Second, COVID-19 has long period of incubation, which means that for 6 weeks we probably had numerous COVID-19 cases being spread around the world. Reason why there is such jump in cases is that now testing is being administered more often and as test kits become more available (and probably we will have big increase in that due to scrutiny CDC and others are under) you will have big jump in cases. This is done, now the question is how we mitigate spread here.

 

[Wolf359]

Originally Posted by AC1DD
My question is why haven't all international flights been banned from entering the US? I remember when I first heard about this virus about two months ago my first reaction was
stop all international travel immediate and close the borders as well. I was right.


You were wrong. Basically the answer was that by that time it was too late. By the time it was fully announced by China, people had flown all over the place. Just closing the barn door after the horses are gone.

Originally Posted by spasm3
Its hard to take that death rate and relate it to the US. There is a difference in healthcare and demographics. 1 death in the US, and we really don't know the real numbers of who is infected here. I would not compare the death rate of a dense populated lower healthcare country like china to here.


It's been estimated that the death rate in China is more like 4% due to their overwhelmed health care system.

One item to look at is the Diamond Princess. From one infection that lead to over 700 cases and so far 7 have died. So you're at 1% and those were deaths in Japan, UK and Australia which in theory have better health care systems that aren't overwhelmed like China. Not everyone has recovered yet so the number will probably increase. So you're still looking at least at 1%+.

 

[spasm3]

I'm not convinced that it has not been here for some weeks, months masquerading as the flu.

 

[Wolf359]

Originally Posted by spasm3
I'm not convinced that it has not been here for some weeks, months masquerading as the flu.


That is the current thinking in Washington state. Been here a few weeks and the latest infections might mean it came from a very indirect route. CDC testing criteria was too strict. I think the stats are that 80% just have mild symptoms and it's the other 5% or so that really get sick and that's where you end up with the 2% death rate.

Also I think people forget to factor in the flu vaccine, 35 million get sick, but there's a flu vaccine that's 40-60% effective so the numbers would be even higher without the vaccine and there isn't one for Corvid-19 right now. It also appears more contagious than the regular flu.

 

[PimTac]

To respond to edy above, your data sounds more like hearsay.

Locally wehave around 180 being screened from a senior living facility plus an additional 25 fire, police and EMS who responded. They are all being tested for COVID-19. Some have already turned positive.

Currently there are over 50 being treated and some are in hospital.

So it seems we have no shortage of test kits here. Maybe in Colorado?

 

[Wolf359]

Originally Posted by PimTac
To respond to edy above, your data sounds more like hearsay.

Locally wehave around 180 being screened from a senior living facility plus an additional 25 fire, police and EMS who responded. They are all being tested for COVID-19. Some have already turned positive.

Currently there are over 50 being treated and some are in hospital.

So it seems we have no shortage of test kits here. Maybe in Colorado?


That was basically correct. The CDC had distributed a bunch of test kits earlier, but it turned out that they were defective so tests had to be sent to the CDC. Also there was a strict criteria for testing so only those that had been out of the country or came in contact with someone was being tested. The new cases don't meet any of the previous criteria which is why they're only being noticed now and the CDC has relaxed the testing criteria. They also issued new kits so those may be the ones in use now.

The above has been reported in mostly mainstream media outlets. I don't look at fringe ones unlike some other people on here.

 

[PimTac]

Originally Posted by Wolf359
Originally Posted by PimTac
To respond to edy above, your data sounds more like hearsay.

Locally wehave around 180 being screened from a senior living facility plus an additional 25 fire, police and EMS who responded. They are all being tested for COVID-19. Some have already turned positive.

Currently there are over 50 being treated and some are in hospital.

So it seems we have no shortage of test kits here. Maybe in Colorado?


That was basically correct. The CDC had distributed a bunch of test kits earlier, but it turned out that they were defective so tests had to be sent to the CDC. Also there was a strict criteria for testing so only those that had been out of the country or came in contact with someone was being tested. The new cases don't meet any of the previous criteria which is why they're only being noticed now and the CDC has relaxed the testing criteria. They also issued new kits so those may be the ones in use now.

The above has been reported in mostly mainstream media outlets. I don't look at fringe ones unlike some other people on here.





And that is part of the problem. The media will report that XX number of people are exhibiting COVID-19 symptoms but won't report when those people turn out to have regular flu or respiratory illnesses.

Going back to automobile logistics, there are a lot of parts that come from China, Korea, Taiwan and so forth. Regardless of make, they have to get their chips and other technology parts from these countries. That's just one part of the logistical puzzle.

 

[Wolf359]

Car sales is one of those things where there's typically a 60-90 day supply of vehicles in inventory. It's considered a hot car if you have less than 30. Certain parts of China that weren't affected by the virus are up and running. Just depends how long this goes on. A few factories have shut down due to shortage of parts but I don't think there's really lost sales unless this goes on for several more months. They're always adjusting production to meet demand so if they fall behind and the demand is there, they will just ramp it up again afterwards.

As for the reporting, they're pretty clear about reporting positive cases. Plus there's sites like this Johns Hopkins sites which report official confirmed results.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

 

[edyvw]

Originally Posted by Wolf359
Car sales is one of those things where there's typically a 60-90 day supply of vehicles in inventory. It's considered a hot car if you have less than 30. Certain parts of China that weren't affected by the virus are up and running. Just depends how long this goes on. A few factories have shut down due to shortage of parts but I don't think there's really lost sales unless this goes on for several more months. They're always adjusting production to meet demand so if they fall behind and the demand is there, they will just ramp it up again afterwards.

As for the reporting, they're pretty clear about reporting positive cases. Plus there's sites like this Johns Hopkins sites which report official confirmed results.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6


Stock is not an issue, people will not buy if stock market continues to tank.

 

[4WD]

If you want to bash politicians … at least spell the name correctly

 

[edyvw]

Originally Posted by 4WD
If you want to bash politicians … at least spell the name correctly

Yes, that is an issue.
I did not bash him, I am stating what he said this morning. This is guessing game at this point, and tomorrow, markets will reflect that.

 

[M56959]

As promised earlier topic is locked. Political commentary..