Storm clouds for electric vehicle mkt: EPA & TESLA

[PandaBear]

Originally Posted By: c502cid

Originally Posted By: hatt

China lead us? When did they start developing their own technology?

BYD in China is one of the top leaders in electric vehicle technology, especially commercial vehicles. Even has plans to build a factory in the US to handle the demand. If you've ever been to China you'll see millions of mopeds and mini bikes running around, most are electric. Don't underestimate China.

Also they don't have to develop their own, they can always buy it from Korea and Japan. Tesla's "technology" is the battery from Panasonic, and their plan is actually to make money from the batteries and give away the car at cost (giga factory and open source the patents). Think in the geopolitical term, China would have no way to control their oil supply if the US control the ocean and the Middle East, but at least they can generate their own electricity if they are diversified enough (coal, nuke, solar, hydro, wind together).

 

[PandaBear]

Originally Posted By: Shannow

Originally Posted By: mk378

There is always extra capacity at night. Electric utilities have always wished for consumers to have a way to draw and store energy during night and use less from the grid during the day. EVs actually do that.

Until you get on the solar future...then "Off Peak" becomes 10:00 to 15:00, and the most expensive electricity is afternoon, followed by overnight.

Which is why the utilities and local governments are paying employers to install chargers and provide charging for "free" as a tax deductible benefit. It is not about being eco-friendly, just follow the money trail like always.

 

[Trav]

Originally Posted By: JohnnyJohnson

Yes here's one of those Tesla storm clouds.

From what I read he complained numerous times about the auto pilot not working in that curve yet he continued to use it hands off the wheel no less. The only loss there was the car IMO.

 

[SeaJay]

Not surprising to me. Many undeveloped areas of the globe that never had much in the way of land line telephone service jumped on cell phones quicker than we did in the US. EVs would seem as normal to those who had never owned a car before as ICE does to most of us these days.

 

[Shannow]

Originally Posted By: SeaJay

Not surprising to me. Many undeveloped areas of the globe that never had much in the way of land line telephone service jumped on cell phones quicker than we did in the US. EVs would seem as normal to those who had never owned a car before as ICE does to most of us these days.

Where do they plug it in...those same places are throwing hot wires over transmission lines to power their TV (and mobile phone, but you can do that with a few bucks worth of solar.

You'd be able to see the cables glowing from Oz when they plug their Tesla in.

 

[A_Harman]

Originally Posted By: wemay

How ironic that China will lead us into the new era. Their demand for electric vehicles may keep development and research "full speed ahead" regardless of EPA. https://www.axios.com/storm-clouds-for-t...9a5dadce71.html

Quote:

On the record: Two analysts I chatted with yesterday cautioned against assuming the EPA moves will make a big difference in automakers' behavior in the coming years. “This is a much bigger story than the EPA. It involves a lot of other big jurisdictions, most importantly the Chinese market." — Salim Morsy, analyst with Bloomberg New Energy Finance He also notes the zero-emissions vehicles programs in California and other states are key, and while EPA may go after them, that would likely mean a protracted court battle. BNEF has forecast that electrics will make up 54% of new car sales in 2040 worldwide (and nearly 60% in the U.S.). Right now they're just a blip worldwide. Yes, the U.S. regulations matter, but their effect is limited because “the baton is being passed to market-driven considerations.” The allure of China: The EV push in China alone, the world’s biggest market, “effectively tells the U.S. automakers that directionally speaking, they need to continue on the path they are on," Morsy said. “It likely does not significantly sway the corporate strategy of the big three auto [original equipment manufacturers] in the U.S. and indeed all of the OEMs that sell cars in the U.S.," he said of EPA's plan. Autotrader analyst Michelle Krebs makes a similar point in expressing doubts that automakers will back off their announcements in recent years to pour billions more dollars in new electric models and development. She said: “If you are going to be a global player, you have got to play in China and you have got to play by China’s rules, and that means more electric vehicles and more efficient vehicles." Chinese policy calls for sales of 7 million electric vehicles per year by 2025. The bottom line: Krebs notes the bigger question is how to get U.S. consumers to buy more EVs, which they have yet to flock to amid low gasoline prices and a taste for larger vehicles

...and on a related note, US automakers reported yesterday a 16% increase in last month's sales, spurred by sales of pickup trucks, crossovers, and SUV's. People are voting with their pocketbooks.

 

[Brybo86]

Originally Posted By: Wolf359

Originally Posted By: Brybo86

So the pro electric car crowd believes that the only way for research to continue is for the EPA/Government to force it to take place? Sad. What major inventions of the last 200 years were the result of direct government intervention?

You mean like the atomic bomb or atomic energy? Lots of other stuff the government supports.

So in your mind Tesla autopilot is of the same importance as nuclear fission?

 

[Snagglefoot]

Baby steps. The first thing is to fork over $40 K for an electric car that does no better job of getting you somewhere than a $24 K ICE car.

 

[UncleDave]

Originally Posted By: oil_film_movies

Originally Posted By: mk378

There is always extra capacity at night. Electric utilities have always wished for consumers to have a way to draw and store energy during night and use less from the grid during the day. EVs actually do that. The electric trolley and subway trains were actually an electric company idea to fill a lull in consumption during commute time-- after people left their homes but before factories started production.

If a bunch of people suddenly plug in 240v (and some 120v) at 10 to 50 amps at 4:30 pm to 7 pm as they get home from work, during the summer this coincides with a lot of air conditioners also clicking on. It raises the peak. This could be solved with delay-timers on the charge units, IF most everyone used that. We would have to force them to use delay timers.

Thats all built into the car. You tell the car when off peak is and it does the charging during these hours. UD

 

[UncleDave]

Originally Posted By: PandaBear

Originally Posted By: c502cid

Originally Posted By: hatt

China lead us? When did they start developing their own technology?

BYD in China is one of the top leaders in electric vehicle technology, especially commercial vehicles. Even has plans to build a factory in the US to handle the demand. If you've ever been to China you'll see millions of mopeds and mini bikes running around, most are electric. Don't underestimate China.

Also they don't have to develop their own, they can always buy it from Korea and Japan. Tesla's "technology" is the battery from Panasonic, and their plan is actually to make money from the batteries and give away the car at cost (giga factory and open source the patents). Think in the geopolitical term, China would have no way to control their oil supply if the US control the ocean and the Middle East, but at least they can generate their own electricity if they are diversified enough (coal, nuke, solar, hydro, wind together).

Yes the batteries are panasonic, but there is no magic there. The motor control,servo tech, and software tech comes right from spacex. That said they will steal what they need as they always do our IP. UD

 

[Claud]

Originally Posted By: Danno

No way not until electrical grid is upgraded to accommodate that 2040 sales level estimate.

Which will happen as sure as gas stations rolled out across America 100 years ago.

Originally Posted By: hatt

China lead us? When did they start developing their own technology?

Paper, gunpowder (rockets and explosives), ink, ocean going vessels. Plus no doubt other technologies I'm not aware of. Claud.

 

[oil_film_movies]

Originally Posted By: c502cid

Originally Posted By: hatt

China lead us? When did they start developing their own technology?

BYD in China is one of the top leaders in electric vehicle technology, especially commercial vehicles. Even has plans to build a factory in the US to handle the demand. If you've ever been to China you'll see millions of mopeds and mini bikes running around, most are electric. Don't underestimate China.

I interpret what Hatt is talking about as the IP (Intellectual Property) that China copies and steals from the U.S. Its a fact. One part of it: The U.S. has the best universities on the planet, and does a lot of basic research there, which all gets fed to China (leaks, public sourced, Chinese insiders going to grad school here, etc.). Another example: Corporate Espionage. Silicon Valley has established networks gathering tech info. Another example: NASA is a leaking sieve of resources for the Chinese. Other parts of the world (including China) does some R&D to be sure, yet a lot flows from the U.S. Very hard to keep it all secret in a free and open society!

 

[Wolf359]

Originally Posted By: Brybo86

Originally Posted By: Wolf359

Originally Posted By: Brybo86

So the pro electric car crowd believes that the only way for research to continue is for the EPA/Government to force it to take place? Sad. What major inventions of the last 200 years were the result of direct government intervention?

You mean like the atomic bomb or atomic energy? Lots of other stuff the government supports.

So in your mind Tesla autopilot is of the same importance as nuclear fission?

Just pointing out that you assertion that the government does nothing for research is actually baseless and couldn't be more wrong. For the longest time, the federal government was responsible for more than 50% of the R&D done in the country. It's only fallen more recently. Depending on how you slice it, R&D in 2016 was about 145 billion and about 66 billion in research. Basic research is normally done by government and then the commercial sector does a little bit more to bring it to market. As to what's in my mind. I didn't actually say, I just answered your assertion. http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/03/d...-falls-below-50 https://www.aaas.org/fy16budget/federal-rd-fy-2016-budget-overview

 

[SubieRubyRoo]

Originally Posted By: Brybo86

What major inventions of the last 200 years were the result of direct government intervention?

Obamacare.

 

[hatt]

Originally Posted By: c502cid

Originally Posted By: hatt

China lead us? When did they start developing their own technology?

BYD in China is one of the top leaders in electric vehicle technology, especially commercial vehicles. Even has plans to build a factory in the US to handle the demand. If you've ever been to China you'll see millions of mopeds and mini bikes running around, most are electric. Don't underestimate China.

The electric moped market in the US is a little soft.

 

[hatt]

Originally Posted By: Claud

Originally Posted By: hatt

China lead us? When did they start developing their own technology?

Paper, gunpowder (rockets and explosives), ink, ocean going vessels. Plus no doubt other technologies I'm not aware of. Claud.

Probably pilfered from some trader.

 

[fdcg27]

Originally Posted By: oil_film_movies

Originally Posted By: c502cid

Originally Posted By: hatt

China lead us? When did they start developing their own technology?

BYD in China is one of the top leaders in electric vehicle technology, especially commercial vehicles. Even has plans to build a factory in the US to handle the demand. If you've ever been to China you'll see millions of mopeds and mini bikes running around, most are electric. Don't underestimate China.

I interpret what Hatt is talking about as the IP (Intellectual Property) that China copies and steals from the U.S. Its a fact. One part of it: The U.S. has the best universities on the planet, and does a lot of basic research there, which all gets fed to China (leaks, public sourced, Chinese insiders going to grad school here, etc.). Another example: Corporate Espionage. Silicon Valley has established networks gathering tech info. Another example: NASA is a leaking sieve of resources for the Chinese. Other parts of the world (including China) does some R&D to be sure, yet a lot flows from the U.S. Very hard to keep it all secret in a free and open society!

It's even a little easier than that. You want to sell to us? Then you need to establish production in our country. You want to build such a facility in our country? Then you need a local partner with whom you must share everything. The fact that the Chinese have a very cavalier attitude with respect to the ownership rights of IP makes it open season for Chinese entities to crib from Western R&D. It is also a mistake to think that the US is the primary source of valuable IP. The EU states also do a lot of advanced work and their firms also seek to expand in this most rapidly growing market in the world.

 

[PandaBear]

Originally Posted By: UncleDave

Originally Posted By: oil_film_movies

Originally Posted By: mk378

There is always extra capacity at night. Electric utilities have always wished for consumers to have a way to draw and store energy during night and use less from the grid during the day. EVs actually do that. The electric trolley and subway trains were actually an electric company idea to fill a lull in consumption during commute time-- after people left their homes but before factories started production.

If a bunch of people suddenly plug in 240v (and some 120v) at 10 to 50 amps at 4:30 pm to 7 pm as they get home from work, during the summer this coincides with a lot of air conditioners also clicking on. It raises the peak. This could be solved with delay-timers on the charge units, IF most everyone used that. We would have to force them to use delay timers.

Thats all built into the car. You tell the car when off peak is and it does the charging during these hours. UD

My AC already does it. Look up PG&E Smart AC. Basically they'll throttle your consumption via cellular network during peak demand to give you a discount. It would be easy to say charge my EV at this cost only if it has less than 10% state of charge so I can get home, otherwise wait till it cost 1/2 price off peak.

 

[Silverado12]

Originally Posted By: Brybo86

So the pro electric car crowd believes that the only way for research to continue is for the EPA/Government to force it to take place? Sad. What major inventions of the last 200 years were the result of direct government intervention?

Dude, that's such a thoughtless comment. What about the space program and all the technology that came from it.

 

[Wolf359]

Originally Posted By: Silverado12

Originally Posted By: Brybo86

So the pro electric car crowd believes that the only way for research to continue is for the EPA/Government to force it to take place? Sad. What major inventions of the last 200 years were the result of direct government intervention?

Dude, that's such a thoughtless comment. What about the space program and all the technology that came from it.

Yeah, it's pretty unbelievable. The US government spends billions on research every year. It's one of the reason that the US leads the world. Lots of basic research on drugs are also done by the US government and then drug companies commercialize it and then end up sticking Medicaid/Medicare with the bill. In addition to the 42 federal labs, there's also lots of research which is done at Universities which are federally funded. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federally_funded_research_and_development_centers