How ironic that China will lead us into the new era. Their demand for electric vehicles may keep development and research "full speed ahead" regardless of EPA.
https://www.axios.com/storm-clouds-for-t...9a5dadce71.html
Quote:
On the record: Two analysts I chatted with yesterday cautioned against assuming the EPA moves will make a big difference in automakers' behavior in the coming years.
“This is a much bigger story than the EPA. It involves a lot of other big jurisdictions, most importantly the Chinese market."
— Salim Morsy, analyst with Bloomberg New Energy Finance
He also notes the zero-emissions vehicles programs in California and other states are key, and while EPA may go after them, that would likely mean a protracted court battle.
BNEF has forecast that electrics will make up 54% of new car sales in 2040 worldwide (and nearly 60% in the U.S.). Right now they're just a blip worldwide.
Yes, the U.S. regulations matter, but their effect is limited because “the baton is being passed to market-driven considerations.”
The allure of China: The EV push in China alone, the world’s biggest market, “effectively tells the U.S. automakers that directionally speaking, they need to continue on the path they are on," Morsy said.
“It likely does not significantly sway the corporate strategy of the big three auto [original equipment manufacturers] in the U.S. and indeed all of the OEMs that sell cars in the U.S.," he said of EPA's plan.
Autotrader analyst Michelle Krebs makes a similar point in expressing doubts that automakers will back off their announcements in recent years to pour billions more dollars in new electric models and development. She said:
“If you are going to be a global player, you have got to play in China and you have got to play by China’s rules, and that means more electric vehicles and more efficient vehicles."
Chinese policy calls for sales of 7 million electric vehicles per year by 2025.
The bottom line: Krebs notes the bigger question is how to get U.S. consumers to buy more EVs, which they have yet to flock to amid low gasoline prices and a taste for larger vehicles
