Car prices to rise due to tariffs and certain vehicles possibly ...

[MrJayhawk]

I know what they built. I worked with them on some projects in Montgomery. Santa Fe, as you said, came later, but it was, for a long time, an afterthought as the crisis in 2008 pushed people to buy smaller vehicles. But still, Santa Fe would never be hit by truck tariffs. SUV's are not subject to that. Land Cruisers, or Touaregs or Q7's, were never subject to the truck tariff. Mazda B? Yes. VW Amarok? Yes. Truck tariffs did make some manufacturers build some facilities, but they are far from being the sole policy responsible for the car manufacturing boom in the Southeast or, generally, being responsible for foreign companies moving production here. Honda started building the Accord, and Toyota Camry when sedans ruled the market. I am not sure the manufacturing boom in the Southeast has anything to do with that. There are numerous manufacturing companies in the Southeast that don’t have anything to do with direct vehicle production or absolutely anything, from medical equipment to steel mills (Thyssen-Krupp). I mean, Alabama landed the first Airbus assembly outside the EU. Globalization was good for the Southeast. I mean, BMW is largest exporter of vehicles from the US If the EU imposes blanket tariffs like we did, SC will suffer. However, it seems the EU might target the tech sector and Tesla with specific tariffs and taxes. Michelin from SC exports a lot of tires to EU, as well as ZF transmissions.

One of the reasons given as far as why factories have been located in the South especially autos is to get them away from the power of the UAW and other unions. The perception has been labor rates salary wise are lower in that locale and the locals will accept it.

The big issue BMW will deal with in SC is similar to the big 3 as far as import parts to build the vehicle. The engine and tranny come from Europe, for sure on the I6.

 

[y_p_w]

To my understanding there are plenty of car factories inside the US, both domestic and foreign. So to me the tariffs sounds like a bit overblown issue, but then again i might be wrong. What brand new cars do US import anyway?

Lots of cars. But possibly the biggest thing would be the cost of parts. There isn't going to be a single car assembled in the US that doesn't have imported parts in it. There are also imported cars in the US that have imported parts from the US, and I believe that would be double tariffed if there are reciprocal tariffs.

 

[GON]

People seem to think we are holding all the cards; we are not. No one is.
America based companies use imported materials and technology via the supply chain. No one operates in a vacuum.

Say you have a company that exports... You will likely get hit with reciprical tarrifs. And/or your customers may choose to use other sources. You just may be outta business.

In Economics, "opacity" refers to a lack of transparency or clarity, where information about assets, markets, or economic activities is not readily available or easily understood, potentially leading to inefficiencies and instability.

Does anyone think they have any idea the complexities of world economics? Please... We simply don't know what we don't know.
Add to that the uncertainty trading partners now have based on the loss of America's trustworthyness.
This bravado is insanity.

"complexities of world economics"

It is really simple. Continuing to spend more than you bring in will result in financial failure. Not if one will fail, just when. So very simple.....

 

[SC Maintenance]

It's mind boggling this attitude that Americans have about our importance in the world. We were only important in so far as other countries benefitted from our policies and now that they are going to be hurt by our policies, they will just unite, reconsider their relationships with us and other countries, and move on from us like a bad ex-boyfriend.

Honest question - because I know your an honest guy and no one else here with these thoughts has an answer. Move on to where?

USA is there customer. Were the world's net importer. Saying they will just trade with each other is like Autozone saying they don't need customers, they will just sell to Napa.

I am not a advocate nor opposed to tariff's. Reality is we really don't know what they will do. The other reality is there likely just an ends to a means in the end.

 

[edyvw]

Honest question - because I know your an honest guy and no one else here with these thoughts has an answer. Move on to where?

USA is there customer. Were the world's net importer. Saying they will just trade with each other is like Autozone saying they don't need customers, they will just sell to Napa.

I am not a advocate nor opposed to tariff's. Reality is we really don't know what they will do. The other reality is there likely just an ends to a means in the end.

People are behaving like we are not exporting goods. They will either put blanket tariffs or target our most lucrative exports.
In the end no one will win. 401k’s will be obliterated, bunch of small businesses will not survive, and we will be at square one.
IMO, after everything is settled, we will lose control over post WWII financial system, and have higher deficits.
I watched interviews this morning and conclusion I got is that these people never seen each other, let alone were sitting in the same room when these decisions were made.

Edit: Tokyo stock exchange stopped trading. So, probably same scenario tomorrow at NYSE.

 

[SC Maintenance]

People are behaving like we are not exporting goods. They will either put blanket tariffs or target our most lucrative exports.
In the end no one will win. 401k’s will be obliterated, bunch of small businesses will not survive, and we will be at square one.
IMO, after everything is settled, we will lose control over post WWII financial system, and have higher deficits.
I watched interviews this morning and conclusion I got is tgat these people never seen each other, let alone were sitting in the same room when these decisions were made.

You made no attempt to answer my question?

 

[edyvw]

You made no attempt to answer my question?

I did, but let me take different route. We have consumer mindset. We want cheap goods. We will cave in.
So to answer your question, countries will offer him a deal in which he can come out as a “winner.” We will lower tariffs, or eliminate them all together because other countries will offer that. Of course 0% tariff works excellent for all these countries as now they can export even cheaper. He can come out and say: you see, now we have fair trade. Except, no one wants to buy Ford F150, and you can export only so many B787’s (and just wait until Comac gets into that game fully).
But by that time, 401k’s will be obliterated, and bunch of businesses will be out of job as well as people.
But hey, it is exciting.

 

[SC Maintenance]

I did, but let me take different route. We have consumer mindset. We want cheap goods. We will cave in.
So to answer your question, countries will offer him a deal in which he can come out as a “winner.” We will lower tariffs, or eliminate them all together because other countries will offer that. Of course 0% tariff works excellent for all these countries as now they can export even cheaper. He can come out and say: you see, now we have fair trade. Except, no one wants to buy Ford F150, and you can export only so many B787’s (and just wait until Comac gets into that game fully).
But by that time, 401k’s will be obliterated, and bunch of businesses will be out of job as well as people.
But hey, it is exciting.

Still no answer. What you say of course may or may not be correct - who knows in the future. But my question is much simpler.

We are the world's net importer. We buy $900 Billion of goods more than we export. We buy something like $4 Trillion total. If we stop buying those goods - what countries are going to buy them instead?

People keep saying these other countries will go trade amongst themselves, but they all want to export. They do not want to import.

So who will be the surplus buyer(s) without the USA?

 

[edyvw]

Still no answer. What you say of course may or may not be correct - who knows in the future. But my question is much simpler.

We are the world's net importer. We buy $900 Billion of goods more than we export. We buy something like $4 Trillion total. If we stop buying those goods - what countries are going to buy them instead?

People keep saying these other countries will go trade amongst themselves, but they all want to export. They do not want to import.

So who will be the surplus buyer(s) without the USA?

Nothing, they will adjust to new realities.
Tell me you are not believing that they will absorb the impact? Chinese companies might swallow 1%, at most. And slap 54% on Boeing.
Everyone is talking how much we import. What about our exports? What do you think, they will absorb impact of our tariffs and keep buying our airplanes, jet engines, software, military equipment. Yes, in some parallel universe.
This is absolute nonsense.

 

[SC Maintenance]

Nothing, they will adjust to new realities.
Tell me you are not believing that they will absorb the impact? Chinese companies might swallow 1%, at most. And slap 54% on Boeing.
Everyone is talking how much we import. What about our exports? What do you think, they will absorb impact of our tariffs and keep buying our airplanes, jet engines, software, military equipment. Yes, in some parallel universe.
This is absolute nonsense.

So your conjecture is these countries will simply swallow the drop in their GDP rather than negotiate some sort of deal? That is certainly possible. I doubt it - but who knows.

 

[edyvw]

So your conjecture is these countries will simply swallow the drop in their GDP rather than negotiate some sort of deal? That is certainly possible. I doubt it - but who knows.

Of course, they will negotiate the deal. Actually, they might not negotiate, they will just say: yep, OK, we are game. Why? Well, Cambodia did that. Last year, we exported $321mln to Cambodia and they exported $10bln to the US. They actually might increase exports now. I already told you that above. They will throw him a bone, and he will rush to say he "won."
But I thought this was about bringing back manufacturing. I mean, bring back the textile industry to South Carolina, take your BMWs back to Europe.

 

[SC Maintenance]

Of course, they will negotiate the deal. Actually, they might not negotiate, they will just say: yep, OK, we are game. Why? Well, Cambodia did that. Last year, we exported $321mln to Cambodia and they exported $10bln to the US. They actually might increase exports now. I already told you that above. They will throw him a bone, and he will rush to say he "won."
But I thought this was about bringing back manufacturing. I mean, bring back the textile industry to South Carolina, take your BMWs back to Europe.

So if that is the case - why all the huffing and puffing. Why are countries preparing "countermeasures" and counter tariff's.

Why not just say sure, free trade - whatever you like.

I mean sure - Cambodia. $10B is 1/4 of 1% of all imports. Argentina has already said they will charge zero tarriff, and accept 10% to sell to USA. But again, how much is Argentina going to buy. But those two countries don't matter.

The heavy hitters are China, Euro Zone, Mexico and Canada. So if its no big deal, why not just say sure - free trade?

 

[edyvw]

So if that is the case - why all the huffing and puffing. Why are countries preparing "countermeasures" and counter tariff's.

Why not just say sure, free trade - whatever you like.

I mean sure - Cambodia. $10B is 1/4 of 1% of all imports. Argentina has already said they will charge zero tarriff, and accept 10% to sell to USA. But again, how much is Argentina going to buy. But those two countries don't matter.

The heavy hitters are China, Euro Zone, Mexico and Canada. So if its no big deal, why not just say sure - free trade?

Because other countries won't do that. The EU won't do that, and neither will China or Canada. And it is more than that. Airline bookings in Vegas are 70% down from Canada, but there is a huge spike to Cancun etc. Accor SA, a French tourist heavy hitter, said that reservations to the US are 25% down.
They actually might do that: hey, want 0% tariffs_ Let's go.
Now, tell me, what will we export to China or the EU that we already don't?
Or they don't do anything, and they just buy more of their own stuff and put a bunch of money into infrastructure until things settle in.
In the meantime, Boeing now has one factory, the one in WA.

 

[SC Maintenance]

Because other countries won't do that. The EU won't do that, and neither will China or Canada. And it is more than that. Airline bookings in Vegas are 70% down from Canada, but there is a huge spike to Cancun etc. Accor SA, a French tourist heavy hitter, said that reservations to the US are 25% down.
They actually might do that: hey, want 0% tariffs_ Let's go.
Now, tell me, what will we export to China or the EU that we already don't?
Or they don't do anything, and they just buy more of their own stuff and put a bunch of money into infrastructure until things settle in.
In the meantime, Boeing now has one factory, the one in WA.

You keep bringing up Boeing but there bankrupt anyway. How about the fact we have the cheapest energy, were already the largest exporter of LNG. Maybe all the German chemical suppliers move here - for example, because there biggest input cost is lower. This is from a year ago, long before tariff's. https://www.ft.com/content/bca7837a-6ac4-4ed1-ab73-18fbdfa5f1da

It honestly wouldn't take long to wipe out $900B in deficit. Sure, there are some cheap things we likely don't ever make, but there not making them in Europe either. I have been in many factories in Europe, and many in the USA, and many in Canada. There isn't much difference. Any of them could be in any of those countries.

 

[edyvw]

You keep bringing up Boeing but there bankrupt anyway. How about the fact we have the cheapest energy, were already the largest exporter of LNG. Maybe all the German chemical suppliers move here - for example, because there biggest input cost is lower. This is from a year ago, long before tariff's. https://www.ft.com/content/bca7837a-6ac4-4ed1-ab73-18fbdfa5f1da

It honestly wouldn't take long to wipe out $900B in deficit. Sure, there are some cheap things we likely don't ever make, but there not making them in Europe either. I have been in many factories in Europe, and many in the USA, and many in Canada. There isn't much difference. Any of them could be in any of those countries.

Energy?

Pennsylvania Permian needs $70 to survive. Oil as of 3 minutes ago is $59. The Chinese market is 10% down in the opening. Oil might be $49 tomorrow.
So yeah, it might be cheaper, but foreign.

 

[SC Maintenance]

Energy?

Pennsylvania Permian needs $70 to survive. Oil as of 3 minutes ago is $59. The Chinese market is 10% down in the opening. Oil might be $49 tomorrow.
So yeah, it might be cheaper, but foreign.

Energy goes up and down. There expecting recession so thats where the price goes.

Europe has essentially no oil - well a little in the North Sea. How do you ship oil cheaply to Europe without freedom of navigation?

Anyway back to who will buy the $900B of US goods if we don't. I guess answer is no one.

 

[edyvw]

Energy goes up and down. There expecting recession so thats where the price goes.

Europe has essentially no oil - well a little in the North Sea. How do you ship oil cheaply to Europe without freedom of navigation?

Anyway back to who will buy the $900B of US goods if we don't. I guess answer is no one.

I read a lot of wishful thinking today, but this...

 

[SC Maintenance]

I read a lot of wishful thinking today, but this...

Please tell me what I am wishing for? Cognizant answers maybe. Clearly not available - only emotion.

 

[edyvw]

Please tell me what I am wishing for? Cognizant answers maybe. Clearly not available - only emotion.

I have already answered your questions above.
I live on this planet. Have no idea what is happening in the clouds.
The only thing I have to figure out this week is how to save two jobs that two weeks ago I was thinking I don't have to worry about.
So good luck with those billions and trillions. I have other earthly problems.

 

[Exhaustgases]

Early mortgage pay off here I come!

Not in some states. You will still pay decent rent to live in your own paid off place. That needs to be fixed for the better.