Are new oils so good that synthetic oil is doomed?

[Thatwouldbegreat]

Between GTL base stocks coming to market in the near future,

- major oil companies switching to Group III in their 'synthetics',

- and 'conventional' oils using Group II and Group III,

- and more and more forum members advocating conventional oils as often being as good as synthetic ....

I have to wonder how long before we quit thinking about oil in terms of synthetic vs conventional oil.

What might be next? Will we talk about oils only in terms of manufacturers approvals, or API / ACEA/ SAE ratings?

Will Group III's or GTL base stocks become so good that we consider them as good or better than PAO and POE?

I still like and use Redline/ GC/ Amsoil.... but will newer base stocks, additives, and factory specs finally outperform our favorite oils and change out thinking?

For quite a long time , I've thought if I use the best synthetic oils that I had a better oil for longer OCI's and for demanding driving or environments.

Now I'm not so confident that it is that simple anymore.

 

[Shannow]

Interesting thoughts.

I've thought similarly in the past that "conventional" are getting the II II+ basestocks, narrowing the gap, but didn't think of the "synthetics" narrowing it from the other side.

 

[Auto-Union]

For people with high-end cars, synthetics are the way to go to avoid extra service visits. For people who DIY service and don't mind doing it, conventional is a godsend. I say pick you desired interval, choose an oil that can go the approx miles anticipated in the conditions predicted in that time. 2-3-4 times a year. I'll be at 33k by year's end, ELEVEN 3000 mi ocis is too much. I do 4 synth changes a year that amount to 8000 miles each. Someone paying for dealer OC would be crippled at $50 a pop for 3000mi dino changes.

 

[Gene K]

TWBG, I doubt GIV or GV is going anywhere soon. In the standard off the shelf product GIII can certainly work for 15,000 mi + OCI.

The primary drawback in a street car of the best Slack Wax based GIII (Shell XVHI or equivalent) is low temp performance and oxidation resistance. PAO is still superior in these two areas.

For anything over 15,000 mi OCI I would think it would be much easier to retain low-temp performance and reasonable viscosity with a PAO based formula.

In Extreme Conditions GV Esters will likely remain a significant part of the lubricant make-up and I expect PAO to be most of the rest. In a lubricant that cost $14+ a Qt the difference in price between Shell XHVI and ExxonMobil PAO is just not a significant issue.

 

[Cutehumor]

Quote:

---

Someone paying for dealer OC would be crippled at $50 a pop for 3000mi dino changes.

---

can you imagine someone going to the dealer because they don't trust the jiffy lubes out there and do 3k oci and pay $600 in oil changes a year!

 

[Auto-Union]

I've heard of $120 OC at Audi dealers in North Jersey.

 

[JohnBrowning]

No not yet but todays oils are the best they have ever been if you are talking about SM/GF4. The only area that is below my standards is total AW/EP additive levels.

 

[Shannow]

Quote:

---

TWBG, I doubt GIV or GV is going anywhere soon. In the standard off the shelf product GIII can certainly work for 15,000 mi + OCI.

---

I doubt that Gr IV/V are going anywhere either...except they are increaingly NOT going into "synthetic" over the counter oils.

I think the original premise of the first post was that "synthetics" are largely becoming Group III, while "conventional" are becoming II, II+, and III...at what point do over the counter synthetics cease to be worthy of their price ?

 

[peterr]

My first (and last) OC at a Porsche dealer was $200. And this was not a 993 with a 14 litre sump, it was a conservative (by Porsche standards) 7 litre sump.

 

[BGK]

So is it only marketing hype on vehicles that the mfg says must use Mobil 1?

 

[androbot2084]

I think synthetic oils are far from being doomed. First of all there may not be any petroleum oils that I am aware of available in 0w20, 0w30, 0w40 or 0w50 grades that can meet the API SM specification. But I could be wrong.

 

[androbot2084]

To be fair there are synthetic petroleum blends that can meet 0w30 API service SM specifications.

 

[marc780]

No i really doubt it. It surprised me that my 2002 Camry was the subject of a TSB/fix because of sludging, today in 2007 no less oils still sludge!!! Dino has its limits that is painfully clear to me, they will never replace synthetics for people who want the very best oils!

 

[simple_gifts]

Considering the supposed positive formulation changes in ASL and TSO, it is not like syns are standing still. When I see 10K OCI's in a toyota using conventional, I might start looking at them.

 

[ewetho]

I think it is a matter of semantics as to how you decide which end is moving faster. GrpI oil is effectively DEAD. Now everything is GrpII or higher. But in the same breath most over the counter oil are now GrpIII (Understanding that I can get RP & Amsoil & Redline OTC around me).

Now if we use the old Mobil standard of what is a Synthetic then Synthetic is dead already. If we go by the LEGAL definition we keep moving more and more to a Synthetic world and a lot of this is customer reliability (maybe they can fit in one OC a year, Ok, OK, I said maybe) and emissions driven.

Most everything in the near future will probably get to be Group III or its replacement III+. Super highly refined (Synthetic) motor oil.

 

[Kestas]

Just, the opposite. Synthetic is beginning to look better every day for me. And I'm a dino user. The price of regular oil keeps going up, and seems to be closing the gap on the price difference with synthetic. I can't get regular oil around here for less than $1.80/qt. All the deals, rebates, promotions seem to be in California or in the South.

 

[double vanos]

I think we're coming to a time where it's not going to be whether an oil is comprised of a certain group that makes it so good - it will be the total proprietary package that makes the oil good. The "ultimate oil" may well be a blend of all the groups we know today and possibly some yet to be discovered. I feel confident that the add packs of an oil will play an ever larger part of it's performance. And the "ultimate oil" will be validated by the same processes that make us love, or hate, certain oils now.

Technology does indeed march on and in next five years we will all be surprised by the strides made in the lubricants field. Cheers!

 

[Steelhead]

it's not fun to walk thru the oil shelves anymore....the prices keep going up and no sales
maybe my next rig will be an all electric with sealed factory service only

Quote:

---

Just, the opposite. Synthetic is beginning to look better every day for me. And I'm a dino user. The price of regular oil keeps going up, and seems to be closing the gap on the price difference with synthetic. I can't get regular oil around here for less than $1.80/qt. All the deals, rebates, promotions seem to be in California or in the South.

---

 

[bruce381]

""I have to wonder how long before we quit thinking about oil in terms of synthetic vs conventional oil.""

It is here now regardless of what some say that you need use this or that additive or booster most all oils now have or are turning syn in performance and base stock type and as such need no monkeying with.

The new SM and farther out specs will have improvements in all areas encluding "ring belt" buildup, never heard term ring pak till I came to this site.
bruce

 

[GreenMachine]

Quote:

---

Quote:

---

Someone paying for dealer OC would be crippled at $50 a pop for 3000mi dino changes.

---

can you imagine someone going to the dealer because they don't trust the jiffy lubes out there and do 3k oci and pay $600 in oil changes a year!

---

hard to convince people to change thier ways and go past that 3000mi mark.

Quote:

---

Quote:

---

Someone paying for dealer OC would be crippled at $50 a pop for 3000mi dino changes.

---

can you imagine someone going to the dealer because they don't trust the jiffy lubes out there and do 3k oci and pay $600 in oil changes a year!

---

Should I mention "GMOLS" or is that hieracy on this board I follow it in my 98 Deville and seems to be ok. Thinking of doing an UOA at the end of this interval to see how it does going by the GMOLS or EOLI or OLM or whatever it will be called.
http://www.gm.com/company/gmability/environment/news_issues/news/simplified_maintenance_040104.html