Originally Posted By: dave1251
If you are going to make this statement. Please provide your information for this assessment. Helpful figures include additional cost of synthetic base stocks, the ROI to offset cost, and percentage of possible recovery of group III and higher base stocks vs group II.
I have no horse in this race, but I toyed with the whole cost of conventionals versus synthetics argument a while back to see what would work best for me. I have posted this information before but here is a compilation of my calculations with edits added based upon my experiences thus far (and yes, I buy my oil at WM because it hardly makes fiscal sense for me to pay more elsewhere for the same oil):
My 10K run of MS5K had a TBN of 1.4 and for sake of argument let us assume it would read 1.0 at 12K and the M1 will read 1.0 at 16K (EDIT: M1 actually read 2.4 at 15K indicating it could likely go to 18K--pushing the numbers even more). I typically purchase seven 5QT jugs at a time (enough for 5 OCs @ 7QTs each). So using the numbers at WM, here are my calculations:
$15.97 x 7 = $111.79 (7 jugs of MS5K)
$21.97 x 7 = $153.79 (7 jugs of M1) (EDIT: this was a rollback price)
A difference of $42 which sounds like a lot on the surface, but let us calculate a little further. When we apply the miles to the cost, it becomes thus:
12,000 miles per OC x 5 OCs = 60,000 miles at a cost of $111.79 or 0.001863167 per mile for 60K miles on MS5K
16,000 miles per OC x 5 OCs = 80,000 miles at a cost of $153.79 or 0.001922375 per mile for 80K miles on M1
If my math is correct, this equals a difference of 0.000059208 (effectively ZERO). The problem is that many do not run synthetics (or conventionals for that matter) long enough to zero out the life of the oil and therefore they waste oil and money. I have been totally guilty of this throughout the life of my FX4 (well, at least until recently), but alas, hopefully my waste is knowledge for someone else to stop the waste.
I want to keep this comparison as fair as possible, so I will remove the sale pricing and stick with regular pricing on both SuperTech and M1 (currently $12.97 for ST and $24.97 for M1) (EDIT: this was pricing from November 2013).
$12.97 x 7 = $90.79 (7 jugs of SuperTech)
$24.97 x 7 = $174.79 (7 jugs of M1)
A difference of $84
When we apply the miles to the cost, it becomes thus:
12,000 miles per OC x 5 OCs = 60,000 miles at a cost of $90.79 or $0.0015131667 per mile for 60K miles on SuperTech
16,000 miles per OC x 5 OCs = 80,000 miles at a cost of $174.79 or $0.002184875 per mile for 80K miles on M1
If my math is correct, this equals a difference of$0.0006717083 per mile to use synthetic versus conventional.
Now, provided a more expensive synthetic can be ran for more miles, then using a more expensive synthetic makes the gap even less (though one would assume just the opposite). Here is ST versus M1EP (currently $12.97 for ST and $26.97 for M1EP) (EDIT: M1EP is currently $25.17 so this gap closes even further):
$12.97 x 7 = $90.79 (7 jugs of SuperTech)
$26.97 x 7 = $188.79 (7 jugs of M1EP)
A difference of $98
When we apply the miles to the cost, it becomes thus:
12,000 miles per OC x 5 OCs = 60,000 miles at a cost of $90.79 or $0.0015131667 per mile for 60K miles on SuperTech
20,000 miles per OC x 5 OCs = 100,000 miles at a cost of $188.79 or $0.0018879 per mile for 100K miles on M1EP (I will assume that 20K is possible with M1EP) (EDIT: I will found soon enough; I know that regular M1 can go 15K with ease).
If my math is correct, this equals a difference of $0.0003747333 per mile to use synthetic versus conventional.
Does it cost more to run a synthetic over a conventional? if both oils are ran to zero life...mathematically it seems that it is a wash. IF the oil is NOT used to zero life (i.e. both dumped at 8K) then the conventional is the clear winner in the cost contest. Of course, synthetics are frequently on sale at WM whereas conventionals are less frequently placed on sale and this pushes the margins even further.
I also compared synthetic costs (M1, M1EP, and SSO) (EDIT: pricing at WM has both M1 and M1EP at the same price [$25.17] so these numbers are off, but you get the general idea)
Oil Costs:
M1 = $4.39/QT x 7 = $30.73 (bought in 5QT jugs @ WM)
M1EP = $5.39/QT x 7 = $37.73 (bought in 5QT jugs @ WM)
SSO = $6.90/QT x 7 = $48.33 (bought in 4QT jugs @ Amsoil PC)
Filter Costs:
MC FL-820s = $2.30 (AAP + code)
Fram Ultra = $7.53 (AAP + code)
Amsoil EO = $13.15 (Amsoil PC)
When we apply the miles to the cost, it becomes thus:
$0.002202 per mile @ 15,000 miles per OC at a cost of $33.03 (M1 + MC)
$0.002355 per mile @ 15,000 miles per OC at a cost of $35.33 (M1 + 2 MCs)
$0.002551 per mile @ 15,000 miles per OC at a cost of $38.26 (M1 + FU)
$0.002117 per mile @ 20,000 miles per OC at a cost of $42.33 (M1EP + 2 MCs)
$0.002263 per mile @ 20,000 miles per OC at a cost of $45.26 (M1EP + FU)
$0.002647 per mile @ 20,000 miles per OC at a cost of $52.93 (SSO + 2 MCs)
$0.002793 per mile @ 20,000 miles per OC at a cost of $55.86 (SSO + FU)
$0.002117 per mile @ 25,000 miles per OC at a cost of $52.93 (SSO+ 2 MCs)
$0.002459 per mile @ 25,000 miles per OC at a cost of $61.48 (SSO + EO)
My conclusion was a simple one based upon cost analysis and the UOA performance which is why all of the MS5K in my stash was replaced with M1AFE and M1EP. For me, there is zero incentive to run a conventional oil. Am I saying that synthetics are better than conventionals (blah, blah, blah)? No, but (for me) it is easy to see why I chose synthetics.